方正证券研报称，12月非农数据好坏参半，美国就业市场整体处于温和下行趋势，但失业率边际改善， 给1月美联储更多观望的理由，结合最高法或宣布IEEPA关税违宪，短期或利多美股和美元、利空美 债：新增就业、职位空缺率、时薪增速等数据表明12月美国就业市场仍相对疲软，但失业率数据的边际 下降是为数不多亮点。从利率期货和美债走势看，数据公布后市场定价美联储1月不降息，最早或6月开 启降息。与此同时，由于最高法近期或宣布IEEPA关税违宪，意味着经济预期或边际改善，通胀压力走 弱，但财政赤字加剧。在美联储不急于降息+关税降温的组合下，短期美债不利因素较多，高位运行概 率较高，美股受益于AI景气度+关税扰动减少，尤其是必选消费、工业等关税受损部门弹性较大。 ...

燕翔、石琳（燕翔系方正证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 核心结论 事件： 9月美国CPI同比3%，预期3.1%，前值2.9%；CPI环比0.3%，预期和前值均为0.4%；核心CPI同比3%，预期和前值均为3.1%；核心CPI环比0.2%，预期和前 值均为0.3%。 投资要点： 美国:CPI:季调:同比(%) -- 美国:核心CPI:季调:同比(%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 21-08 21-02 22-08 23-08 24-08 25-08 23-02 24-02 25-02 22-02 资料来源: Wind, 方正证券研究所 价格指数:进口商品 =价格指数:国内商品 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 25-04 25-06 25-10 4-12 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-09 24-10 24- 1 1 25-03 25-07 25-01 资料来源: Cavallo,Llamas & Vazquez (2025), 方正证券研究所 美国政府停摆下9月通胀数据发布对市场意义重大，年内美联储大概率降息2次，10年美债利率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a focus on the number and magnitude of cuts by the end of the year [1][2] - The latest inflation data shows that the US CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in October and December [1][2] - Analysts predict a high probability of two consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September and October, with employment data influencing the decision for a potential December cut [1][3] Group 2 - The employment market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations, which raises the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates to stimulate employment [2][3] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject new liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets such as US stocks and gold, as the Fed's "risk management-style rate cuts" could enhance global market risk appetite [3][4] - Despite the positive outlook for US stocks and gold, there are concerns about high valuations in the stock market, suggesting limited short-term upside, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Impact of Tax Policy on Bond Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) [1][2] - A dual-track system will be implemented where new bonds are taxed while existing bonds remain exempt until maturity, with a standard tax rate of 6% for corporate entities and a simplified rate of 3% for asset management products [2] Group 2: Short-term Effects on Bond Market - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to increase, leading to a potential decline in their yields, while the spread between newly issued taxable bonds and existing tax-exempt bonds may widen [3] - Market behavior is anticipated to show a phase of differentiation, with arbitrage trading becoming a dominant strategy, favoring a "long old bonds, short new bonds" approach [3] Group 3: Medium to Long-term Market Dynamics - The increased tax burden on interest from rate bonds may alter their yield relative to traditional credit bonds, prompting a reallocation of funds towards other asset classes such as interbank certificates of deposit, credit bonds, REITs, and equities [4] - Demand for taxable bonds through asset management products is expected to rise, while the supply rhythm of financial bonds may adjust accordingly [4] Group 4: Institutional Responses and Market Outlook - Financial institutions are exploring ways to optimize tax management through asset management product structures and adjusting the proportion of assets held to maturity [5] - Key focus areas include the stabilization of prices for tax-exempt existing bonds post-short-term volatility, changes in demand for long-term rate bonds, credit bond spread trends, and the issuance pace of bank certificates of deposit [5]