在市场已普遍预计美联储将在下周议息会议宣布降息的基础上，北京时间9月11日晚，美国劳工部发布 该国最新通胀数据，整体上保持稳定，又给了市场一颗"定心丸"。考虑到此前多份就业数据均指向美国 就业市场疲软，当前市场对美联储降息的关注点已从是否降息转为到年底前会降息几次、降息幅度多 大。 业内人士认为，美联储大概率将在9月、10月议息会议上连续两次降息各25个基点，就业数据后续表现 将影响美联储是否在12月继续降息；就后市大类资产配置而言，美股表现有望好于美债，但短期上涨空 间或有限，黄金或持续受益。 ● 本报记者 胡雨 连续两次降息概率提升 美国劳工部发布的该国最新通胀数据显示，美国8月CPI同比上涨2.9%，符合市场预期，略高于前值 2.7%；核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，符合市场预期，与前值保持一致。数据发布后，市场对美联储9月降息 的预期变化不大，但加强了对10月、12月降息的预期。资产价格方面，当地时间9月11日，美股三大股 指集体收涨，美元指数走弱，美债收益率多数下行。 长江证券研究所宏观首席分析师于博判断，短期内美国就业走弱，通胀温和的特征不变，美联储9月降 息基本确定，且降息幅度大概率为25个基点；进 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tax Policy on Bond Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) [1][2] - A dual-track system will be implemented where new bonds are taxed while existing bonds remain exempt until maturity, with a standard tax rate of 6% for corporate entities and a simplified rate of 3% for asset management products [2] Group 2: Short-term Effects on Bond Market - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to increase, leading to a potential decline in their yields, while the spread between newly issued taxable bonds and existing tax-exempt bonds may widen [3] - Market behavior is anticipated to show a phase of differentiation, with arbitrage trading becoming a dominant strategy, favoring a "long old bonds, short new bonds" approach [3] Group 3: Medium to Long-term Market Dynamics - The increased tax burden on interest from rate bonds may alter their yield relative to traditional credit bonds, prompting a reallocation of funds towards other asset classes such as interbank certificates of deposit, credit bonds, REITs, and equities [4] - Demand for taxable bonds through asset management products is expected to rise, while the supply rhythm of financial bonds may adjust accordingly [4] Group 4: Institutional Responses and Market Outlook - Financial institutions are exploring ways to optimize tax management through asset management product structures and adjusting the proportion of assets held to maturity [5] - Key focus areas include the stabilization of prices for tax-exempt existing bonds post-short-term volatility, changes in demand for long-term rate bonds, credit bond spread trends, and the issuance pace of bank certificates of deposit [5]