行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 10 月 09 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：关注军贸及出口产业链 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周（9.22-9.30）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 2.51% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 3.08%，相对超额-0.57pct，其中节前最后一天 9.30 军工板块呈 现明显反弹趋势，指数上涨 2.59%。9.3 阅兵以来，军工板块已沉寂近一月 时间，随着十五五计划将近，行业基本面改善预期明确，叠加军工已呈现 明显反弹趋势，我们强烈看好 2025Q4-2026 军工行业基本面向好发展；此 外，相关新兴产业主题热度也层出不穷，如核聚变板块因 BEST 装置杜瓦底 座成功安装热度高涨；军工新景气周期即将到来！ 资金层面，本周被动基金规模及份额均有所提升，且被动资金持续净流入 趋势，表明被动资金持续加码军工板块；杠杆类资金净流入额有所下降； 考虑到军工行业 2025-2026 的强需求恢复预期及确定性，看好后续资金面 持续向好。 估值层面，截至 9 月 30 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）77.86 倍，分位 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持给予公司 25-27 年的归母净利润预测分别为 1.47 亿、1.94 亿、2.54 亿 元，根据可比公司 25 年 PE 水平，维持给予公司 25 年 37 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 61.79 元，维持买入评级。 容知日新 688768.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 渠道改革顺利，公司成长可期 核心观点 风险提示 制造业转型升级不及预期，渠道改革进展不及预期 | 公司主要财务信息 | | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 498 | 584 | 757 | 954 | 1,181 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.0% | 17.2% | 29.8% | 25.9% | 23.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 49 | 107 | 170 | 226 | 297 | | 同比增长 (%) | -57.4% | 118.7% | 59.0% | 32.7% | 31.3% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taotao Automotive, though relatively unknown in the automotive industry, has achieved significant success in overseas markets due to its unique business model, with overseas revenue accounting for 96.5% in the first half of 2023 [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Taotao Automotive was founded by Cao Matao, who established the company in 2015 to focus on new energy smart mobility, moving away from the diversified business of its predecessor, Taotao Group [4]. - The company specializes in smart electric low-speed vehicles and specialty vehicles, targeting overseas markets, particularly the United States, which accounted for 78.11% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Taotao Automotive reported a revenue of 1.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.19%, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 88.04% [6]. - The sales revenue from smart electric low-speed vehicles reached 1.152 billion yuan, growing by 30.65%, while specialty vehicle sales were 490 million yuan, increasing by 8.22% [6]. Group 3: Global Strategy and Market Position - The company is planning to apply for an IPO in Hong Kong to enhance its international brand influence and financing capabilities, aiming for a dual financing platform with "A+H" shares [3][6]. - Taotao Automotive has established production bases in the U.S., Vietnam, and Thailand, with a focus on localizing production to strengthen its "North American manufacturing+" strategy [5]. Group 4: Market Risks and Adaptation - The company faces risks due to its high dependency on the U.S. market, which has increased from 61.30% in 2022 to 78% in the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - To mitigate risks from U.S.-China trade tensions, Taotao Automotive is accelerating local production in North America and expanding capacity in Southeast Asia to avoid tariff barriers [7][8]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Taotao Automotive is exploring new business opportunities in AI and robotics, having formed strategic partnerships with companies like Kepler Robotics and Yushu Technology [8].

Core Viewpoint - Taotao Automotive plans to apply for an initial public offering (IPO) of H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international brand influence and financing capabilities, aiming to improve its overall competitiveness [2][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Taotao Automotive, founded by Cao Matao, focuses on smart electric low-speed vehicles and specialty vehicles, targeting overseas markets, particularly the U.S. [3][4]. - The company has established production bases in the U.S., Vietnam, and Thailand, with a strategy to achieve localized production in North America [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Taotao Automotive reported revenue of 1.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.19%, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 88.04% [4]. - The sales revenue from smart electric low-speed vehicles reached 1.152 billion yuan, growing by 30.65%, while specialty vehicle sales amounted to 490 million yuan, increasing by 8.22% [4]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The company aims to leverage the IPO to strengthen its capital base and support overseas capacity construction, channel expansion, and technology research and development [5]. - Taotao Automotive's business model, which relies heavily on overseas markets, is part of a broader trend among Chinese manufacturers seeking to expand internationally [5]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks associated with high dependence on the U.S. market, with sales to the U.S. projected to account for 78.11% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [6]. - To mitigate risks from U.S.-China trade tensions, Taotao Automotive is accelerating local production in North America and shifting capacity to Southeast Asia [6]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Taotao Automotive is exploring new business opportunities in AI and robotics, having formed strategic partnerships with companies like Kepler Robotics and Yushu Technology [7].

Core Insights - The private domain e-commerce user base in China is expected to approach 1 billion by 2027, with a penetration rate of approximately 67% and a market transaction scale projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan [1][2] Market Growth - The private domain e-commerce market is anticipated to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2020 to 2024, and maintain a steady growth rate of 20.4% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - By 2027, the market transaction scale is expected to surpass 3 trillion yuan [2] Consumer Behavior - Key consumer categories in private domain e-commerce include clothing and footwear (72.9%), daily necessities (70.1%), and food and beverages (65.9%) [2] - Nearly 80% of users are frequent consumers, placing orders at least once a week, with over half indicating increased shopping frequency due to "significant discounts," "variety of products," and "personalized services" [2] Merchant Engagement - Approximately 90% of surveyed merchants have initiated private domain strategies, with 9.4% of leading players achieving annual revenue contributions exceeding 100 million yuan [2] Industry Trends - The private domain e-commerce sector is entering a golden development phase driven by digital economy trends and changing consumer shopping habits [3] - Three core trends identified in the industry include a shift from "traffic-driven" to "product essence," a transition from "hard advertising" to "value-driven marketing," and the deep integration of AI throughout the business chain [3] Strategic Developments - DreamX Technology announced a strategic upgrade focusing on "quality products, content, and AI" to enhance private domain service capabilities [3] - The company launched a "WeChat AI dedicated customer service" to assist users with inquiries 24/7 [3] Success Stories - A store owner from Henan reported a 200% year-on-year sales increase from January to August, sharing insights on product selection, customer group management, and content marketing [4] - Another store owner achieved nearly 10 million yuan in sales within four months by leveraging short videos and authentic personal branding [4] Industry Events - The 2025 Private Domain Growth Summit attracted over 200 leading brands and thousands of traffic owners, facilitating discussions on private domain ecosystem construction and brand growth strategies [1][4] - The event featured a large exhibition showcasing over 200 domestic and international brands across various categories, including cosmetics, apparel, and home goods [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese private domain e-commerce market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2020 to 2024, and maintain a steady growth rate of 20.4% from 2025 to 2027, with user scale approaching 1 billion and market transaction scale exceeding 3 trillion yuan by 2027 [1][2] - The report highlights that the digital economy and changing consumer shopping habits are driving private domain e-commerce into a golden development phase, with a shift in consumer expectations from "cost performance" to "quality-price ratio" [1] - Three core trends in the private domain e-commerce industry are identified: returning from "traffic-driven" to "product essence," shifting from "hard advertising" to "value seeding," and deep integration of AI intelligence into the entire business chain [1] Group 2 - The report reveals that clothing and footwear (72.9%), daily necessities (70.1%), and food and beverages (65.9%) are the main categories for consumer spending in private domain e-commerce [2] - Key factors for users when shopping in private domains include after-sales service, category richness, and logistics fulfillment, with nearly 80% of users being high-frequency consumers who order at least once a week [2] - There is a strong enthusiasm among merchants for private domain layout, with nearly 90% of surveyed merchants having initiated private domain strategies, and 9.4% of "top players" achieving annual revenue contributions exceeding 100 million yuan from private domains [2]

【导读】广发证券副总经理、首席信息官 辛治运发表 " 金融科技赋能证券公司高质量发展 " 主题演讲 中国基金报记者 赵心怡 " 什么是数智化转型？就是证券公司在业务模式升维、管理模式进行创新，同时以金融科技为 基础，由决策层来推动。整个过程中，金融科技都发挥了重要作用，是证券公司实现数智化 转型、高质量发展的支撑和重要保障。 " 广发证券副总经理、 首席信息官辛治运表示。 券商高质量发展离不开 " 数智化转型 " 辛治运表示，推动行业高质量发展，已成为国家战略和市场竞争的双重要求。 2024 年国，务院发布《关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》（新 " 国九条 " ），主要特点有三个：充分体现资本市场的政治性、人民性，突出 " 强监管、防风 险、促高质量发展 " 三大主线，也充分体现了目标导向与问题导向。他表示，该文件对资本 市场发展影响深远，对证券公司高质量发展指明了方向、提出了要求。 今年 4 月，监管框架升级，中证协发布证券公司并表管理指引，引导证券公司完善并表管理 架构和模式，加强对子公司及业务条线的 " 垂直化 " 管理，助力行业高质量发展。 从行业发展来看，辛治运认为，当前激烈的 ...

【导读】广发证券（000776）副总经理、首席信息官辛治运发表"金融科技赋能证券公司高质量发展"主 题演讲 "什么是数智化转型？就是证券公司在业务模式升维、管理模式进行创新，同时以金融科技为基础，由 决策层来推动。整个过程中，金融科技都发挥了重要作用，是证券公司实现数智化转型、高质量发展的 支撑和重要保障。"广发证券副总经理、首席信息官辛治运表示。 9月17日，在中国基金报举办的"2025中国资本市场发展论坛暨证券行业论坛"上，辛治运发表"金融科技 赋能证券公司高质量发展"主题演讲，系统阐述了证券行业高质量发展的内涵与实践路径，并分享了广 发证券数智化转型过程中的多项创新成果。 券商高质量发展离不开"数智化转型" 对于"AI智能化将成为行业高质量发展的新引擎"，辛治运进一步阐述道："2025年是智能体应用的爆发 年，各大证券公司也都在推广相关应用。" 辛治运认为，数智化转型是证券公司落实国家高质量发展、做好数字金融的核心举措。"数智化转型"是 证券公司在业务模式升维、在管理模式创新，同时以科技金融为基础，由决策层推动进行的转型。金融 科技则是证券公司实现数智化转型高质量发展的重要支撑、保障和推动力。 科技赋能 ...

开放合作方面，广西将积极构建跨区域跨境产业链，利用西部陆海新通道和北部湾港（000582）口优 势，打造"海外资源+广西加工+海外市场"发展模式，并借助RCEP规则扩大对东盟国家的化工产品出 口。 科技创新成为产业转型的核心驱动力。广西将布局建设一批创新平台，重点加快钦州石化产业技术创新 中心建设，并谋划在条件成熟的化工园区布局中试基地，推动科技成果产业化。特别值得关注的是， 《行动计划》明确提出推进AI智能化技术突破，聚焦研发创新、生产优化等核心环节开发化工行业专 用AI模型，打造六大场景化应用标杆，以场景化应用推动数字化与智能化技术在石化化工行业的实战 落地。 绿色低碳发展是《行动计划》的一大亮点。广西将鼓励企业采用先进技术实施节能改造，构建循环经济 产业链，加强废塑料、废橡胶高值化利用，打造国家级资源循环利用基地。支持发展生物基材料等低碳 产业。同时助推园区能级提升，规范化工园区设立和项目入园，重点在南宁、钦州、北海等沿海沿江沿 河城市加强化工园区布局。加强化工园区载体建设，打造智慧园区。 项目建设与企业培育方面，广西将清单式推进一批重大项目建设，同时开展精准招商。将聚焦核心领 域，培育一批全产业链一体 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.773 billion CNY and a net profit of 87 million CNY for the first half of 2025 [2] - The digital operation platform has developed strong competitive advantages in multi-scenario digital procurement services [2] - The company launched the Qixin Zhipan AI model in early 2025, covering various digital procurement processes [2][11] Group 2: Industry Trends - Digital procurement is becoming the main form of public resource transactions, supported by government policies [3][4] - The penetration rate and growth of digital procurement are continuously increasing, leading to significant improvements in procurement efficiency [4] Group 3: Client Focus - The company targets high-quality clients such as central enterprises, financial institutions, and Fortune 500 companies [5] - Key clients include major players in energy, finance, aerospace, and telecommunications sectors [5] Group 4: Own Brand Strategy - The self-owned brand is a cornerstone of the company's long-term development, focusing on market segmentation and collaboration with quality IPs [6][9] - The company aims to enhance user experience and optimize product and profit structures through its self-owned brand products [6][9] Group 5: Profitability Improvement - The company plans to improve gross margins by increasing the sales proportion of self-owned brand products and optimizing supply chain management [7] - Measures include enhancing the efficiency of digital platforms and AI models to boost order acquisition rates [7] Group 6: MRO Market Insights - The focus on MRO procurement is increasing, with opportunities for larger centralized procurement projects [8][13] - The company primarily deals with general MRO materials, with plans to explore specialized equipment in the future [8][13] Group 7: Future Investments and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 49.82 million CNY for the 2024 fiscal year and again in the first half of 2025 [15] - Future investments will focus on core business and industry chain opportunities, with a cautious decision-making approach [16] Group 8: IP Strategy in Cultural Products - The company has established partnerships with various IPs to enhance brand value and appeal to younger consumers [14][17] - Future plans include continuous investment in IP cultural products to create new growth points for the self-owned brand business [17]