Group 1 - The performance of major global stock indices declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, and a valuation correction in the tech sector [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown [1] - In the bond market, global government bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating upward amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators showed positive signs with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, the central bank maintaining liquidity, and a rise in October CPI year-on-year, alleviating deflation concerns [2][4] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 4000 points again during the week [2] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicates a potential new channel for dollar liquidity [5] Group 3 - The outlook for assets suggests a stable economic environment with narrow fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, as the yuan remains relatively stable without strong support for a sustained dollar rise [6] - The stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations and consolidation due to a lack of strong new policy expectations [7] - The bond market is anticipated to show stable fluctuations with a relaxed funding environment and a gradual pace of central bank bond purchases [8]

Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices mostly declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and the U.S. government shutdown, with Japan and South Korea leading the drop at 4.07% and 3.74% respectively[1] - The Nasdaq fell 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown[1] - Global bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields experiencing fluctuations amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics[1] Domestic Market Insights - The A-share market saw a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with daily transactions falling below 2 trillion yuan, while the Hang Seng Index led major indices with a gain[2] - China's CPI rose year-on-year in October, alleviating deflation concerns, while PPI's decline narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in prices[2] - The People's Bank of China maintained liquidity easing, contributing to a stable bond market environment[2] Economic Developments - The U.S. government shutdown is entering its sixth week, with potential progress as Democrats soften their stance on funding resolutions[3] - China's exports showed a decline of 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by tariff disruptions and high base effects from the previous year[3] - China successfully issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicating strong international investor interest[3] Inflation and Price Trends - October's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, driven by holiday consumption and rising food prices, while core CPI rose to 1.2%[3] - The forecast for 2026 suggests a CPI central tendency of 0.6%, with expectations of price recovery driven by stable food prices and improved consumer demand[3] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions and industrial policies pose risks to market stability[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global assets in October 2025, highlighting the significant movements in various markets and the implications for investors [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In October 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.29%) > US dollar (2.08%) > commodities (1.28%) > RMB (0.02%) > 0% > global bonds (-0.25%) [2]. - The S&P 500 index has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 2011, raising concerns about its sustainability [4][13]. - Following the midterm elections, Argentine assets surged over 20% as President Milei's party won decisively, alleviating fears of economic crisis [4][18]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - A record 54% of global fund managers believe AI tech stocks are in a bubble, up from 38% in September, indicating growing caution in the tech sector [4][24]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Big Seven" US tech stocks has risen to 70.2% compared to the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about their growth potential [4][30]. - The dollar index has turned bullish, with a 1.95% increase in October, driven by hawkish Fed signals and inflation concerns [4][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has flattened as expectations for interest rate hikes increase, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds narrowing to 183 basis points [4][36]. - The Federal Reserve announced an early end to its balance sheet reduction, having shrunk its balance sheet by over $2.4 trillion since June 2022, indicating tightening liquidity in the banking system [4][39]. - Gold's historical volatility has surged, with a gap of over 11 points compared to the S&P 500, the highest since 2020, suggesting a strategic bullish outlook on gold [4][42]. Group 4: Commodity Market Developments - LME copper prices reached a historical high of over $11,000 per ton amid improving US-China trade relations and increased demand from the AI and renewable energy sectors [4][45].