（来源：华西研究） 来源：市场投研资讯 华西大类资产 （一）复盘：大类资产表现海外：受美联储降息预期降温、美国政府停摆导致经济数据缺失、科技板块 估值回调等多重因素共同驱动，本周全球主要股指多数下跌，日韩股指获利回吐压力集中释放，领跌 4.07%、3.74%。美股在空头助推下科技重估，三大指数收跌，AI科技股泡沫担忧叠加政府停摆带来的 流动性压力，纳指周跌3.04%，创4月以来最差单周表现。债市方面，全球主要国家国债收益率多数上 行。美债收益率震荡上行，市场在政府停摆带来的流动性紧缩与政策预期博弈中呈现"短降长稳"格局。 商品方面，国际商品多下跌，金银震荡收涨，仍处整理态势，受美国政府停摆、美联储政策预期波动影 响，市场避险情绪与流动性压力交织。汇市上，美元指数下行0.18%，收99.55。 国内：中美经贸磋商释放利好，央行维持流动性宽松，叠加10月CPI同比转涨、PPI降幅收窄，缓解通缩 担忧。A股缩量震荡，逆势收涨，日均成交回落至2万亿下方。恒指领涨主要股指，沪指周内再触4000 点，科技板块持续调整。中债在政策预期、股债跷跷板影响下震荡偏弱，利率债收益率小幅上行，短端 稳定，长端小幅承压，曲线转为"牛平 ...

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 整固蓄势，窄幅波动 [Table_Title2] ——经济分析与资产展望 11,03 -11,09 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 复盘：大类资产表现 海外：受美联储降息预期降温、美国政府停摆导致经济数据缺失、科技 板块估值回调等多重因素共同驱动，本周全球主要股指多数下跌，日韩 股指获利回吐压力集中释放，领跌 4.07%、3.74%。美股在空头助推下科 技重估，三大指数收跌，AI 科技股泡沫担忧叠加政府停摆带来的流动性 压力，纳指周跌 3.04%，创 4 月以来最差单周表现。债市方面，全球主要 国家国债收益率多数上行。美债收益率震荡上行，市场在政府停摆带来的 流动性紧缩与政策预期博弈中呈现"短降长稳"格局。商品方面，国际商 品多下跌，金银震荡收涨，仍处整理态势，受美国政府停摆、美联储政策 预期波动影响，市场避险情绪与流动性压力交织。汇市上，美元指数下行 0.18%，收 99.55。 国内：中美经贸磋商释放利好，央行维持流动性宽松，叠加 10 月 CPI 同 比转涨、PPI 降幅收窄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global assets in October 2025, highlighting the significant movements in various markets and the implications for investors [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In October 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.29%) > US dollar (2.08%) > commodities (1.28%) > RMB (0.02%) > 0% > global bonds (-0.25%) [2]. - The S&P 500 index has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 2011, raising concerns about its sustainability [4][13]. - Following the midterm elections, Argentine assets surged over 20% as President Milei's party won decisively, alleviating fears of economic crisis [4][18]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - A record 54% of global fund managers believe AI tech stocks are in a bubble, up from 38% in September, indicating growing caution in the tech sector [4][24]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Big Seven" US tech stocks has risen to 70.2% compared to the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about their growth potential [4][30]. - The dollar index has turned bullish, with a 1.95% increase in October, driven by hawkish Fed signals and inflation concerns [4][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has flattened as expectations for interest rate hikes increase, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds narrowing to 183 basis points [4][36]. - The Federal Reserve announced an early end to its balance sheet reduction, having shrunk its balance sheet by over $2.4 trillion since June 2022, indicating tightening liquidity in the banking system [4][39]. - Gold's historical volatility has surged, with a gap of over 11 points compared to the S&P 500, the highest since 2020, suggesting a strategic bullish outlook on gold [4][42]. Group 4: Commodity Market Developments - LME copper prices reached a historical high of over $11,000 per ton amid improving US-China trade relations and increased demand from the AI and renewable energy sectors [4][45].