橡胶：丁二烯带动橡胶上涨 橡胶周报 2026/01/24 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注：化工大涨带动丁二烯和橡胶大涨 ◆ 公众号五矿微服务，每日早晨有最新版，包括各品种最新的产业链动态和观点，包括橡胶早评。及时性较强。欢迎参考。 注释： 后面几十页的数据，一般投资者可泛读，有兴趣深入研究的可以精读。 周报主要更新产业链数据，制表数据量大。有时候出差调研途中，周报会延迟或取消。 另外周报上的观点更新比较慢，如果需要关注我们的观点的最新更新，可以微信关注五矿期货微服务公众号，每天早上开盘前有我们各品种的最新观点和关键数据更新。 （本页开工率数据来源于卓创，和WIND数据小有区别，趋势相同，差别不大。） ◆ 需求：行业如何？轮胎厂全钢开工率62.62%(-0.31%)。全钢胎需求正常。半钢全钢对欧洲出口预期转弱。 ◆ 交易所+青岛 75.96(1.35)万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rubber market should shift to a bearish mindset. The subsequent supply and demand positive factors are diminishing, and it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high from January to February according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The revision of the NR delivery rules by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is expected to increase the delivery quality and quantity of NR, making it more in line with the needs of the tire industry and rubber traders [15]. - The price of rubber is expected to turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - The postponement of EUDR will lead to a series of reactions such as inventory reduction in the stocking links of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - In January, it is still the winter storage season, but the subsequent supply and demand positive factors are decreasing. From January to February, it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU. The reports on January 4, 8, and 9 have all indicated the downward risk of the rubber price [12]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has revised the NR delivery rules, which are expected to improve the quality of physical delivery commodities, standardize packaging and production processes, and optimize the management of inspection validity periods in the delivery process. It is beneficial to increase the delivery quantity of NR [15]. - The market logic: the bulls are mainly based on the expectation of winter storage in China and the positive expectation of Chinese policies, while the bears' main reasons are the dull demand reality and the expectation of poor demand due to the tariff - increasing policy. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the medium term, the policy expectation is the key. The rubber price is gradually turning bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - Strategy recommendation: for the hedging strategy, go long on the NR main contract and short RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the spread is above 3250, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading [19]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand expectation for rubber is marginally weakening, while the Chinese demand is stable [31]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values or points of concern [41][44][48]. 3.4. Cost Side - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is low [52]. 3.5. Demand Side - The full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rates show no special values or points of concern [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the subsequent demand is expected to gradually recover, which will affect the supporting tires. The commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but the subsequent demand is expected to decline slightly [63]. 3.6. Supply Side - Most of the rubber import data sources were last updated in December 2021, and the import data is less analyzable after the 2020 pandemic [67]. - The supply of rubber from major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern [71][75][78]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1,167.7 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The cumulative production was 10,263 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.24%. The export was 869.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. The cumulative export was 8,837 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.73%. The consumption was 911.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The cumulative consumption was 10,001 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.86% [102][103]. 3.7. Butadiene and Related Products - The total capacity of butadiene with spot sales is 179.65 tons, accounting for 27.99%, and the total capacity without spot sales is 462.2 tons, accounting for 72.01%. The total capacity of butadiene rubber is 181.2 tons [117]. - Many butadiene production facilities have experienced maintenance, shutdown, and restart situations in 2025. Some production facilities have plans for future maintenance or shutdown [118]. - The weekly average operating load of butadiene rubber is 75.90%. Some enterprises have plans for shutdown or production reduction [119]. - In 2025, the new butadiene production capacity increased by 113 tons, with a growth rate of 16%. The new production capacity in Q4 2025 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and decrease the processing profit. The import expectation of butadiene is high, which weakens the price [121][122]. 3.8. Ethylene and Related Products - In 2026 - 2027, many ethylene projects are expected to be put into production, with a total planned new capacity of 1,935 tons. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle [123][124]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 62 tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%. The supply pressure of butadiene is expected to decrease, but it will still be under pressure, and butadiene rubber will still drag down the price among the four major rubber varieties [126][127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic for the bulls is the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The low exchange inventory is also a factor. The main reasons for the bears are the current dull demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [14] - The short - term demand for rubber is negatively affected by the postponement of EUDR, which leads to a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories. [11] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline. The supply of raw materials is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In mid - November, about 10 - 110,000 tons of rubber warehouse receipts are expected to be out of storage, significantly reducing the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. December is a season with high demand such as winter storage, not the season when supply - demand margins deteriorate. [10] - In mid - December, there was continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand, but the probability of floods was low. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia led to a relatively strong rubber price, but considering the overall decline of commodities, there is a risk of price catch - up decline. [10] - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia mainly affected the northeastern region of Thailand, with a 2024 natural rubber output of about 260,000 - 270,000 tons, accounting for about 5 - 6% of the country's total output. The escalation of the conflict led to the evacuation of border residents and the shutdown of rubber factories, causing a shortage of tapping and production workers, with a certain positive impact on supply. [10] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the future demand expectation improves, the price difference will widen, and repeated band operations are recommended. [19] 3.2. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of full - latex in Hainan, China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of full - latex in Yunnan, China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [52] - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is reduced. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated. [52] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to decline marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [26][30][33] 3.4. Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to black commodities, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special attention points. The similar movement rhythm of black and rubber products reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand. [41][44][48] 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 64.07% (0.57%), with normal demand for all - steel tires. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. [14] - The demand for medium - sized trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is currently booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [61][64] 3.6. Supply End - The rainy season in Thailand is coming to an end. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some believing in small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. [14] - In September 2025, the rubber output was 1.1416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative output was 8.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33%. [99] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply, and the import of butadiene is also expected to be high, which will put downward pressure on the price of butadiene rubber. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic shows that bulls are mainly driven by the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The exchange inventory is low. Bears mainly base their view on the weak actual demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire [19]. - The rubber price still has opportunities for long - position trading on pullbacks. In the short term, wait for the price to stabilize and then consider short - term long positions. Also, pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, as there may be opportunities for adding positions again and waiting for the right time for swing trading [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the week of October 18, 2025, the report indicated positive factors such as a significant increase in the rainfall forecast in Thailand, positive expectations from the China - US talks, and the EUDR利好, which led to a significant increase of nearly 800 yuan in the rubber price. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase diminished, and the price oscillated and corrected. In the week of November 1, 2025, and the morning reports from November 5 - 7, short - term long opportunities during the price correction were suggested [10]. - Around mid - November, about 10 - 11 tons of rubber warehouse receipts were expected to expire and be taken out of storage, which would significantly reduce the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. Low inventory is likely to attract the attention of bulls [10]. - By November 21, 2025, the impact of the typhoon on the rainfall forecast weakened marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [10]. - The EUDR's implementation time has been postponed again. This postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive factor, but the positive expectation is not significant [14]. - The rubber throwing storage of 62,000 tons on September 25, 2025, is judged to be a short - term negative factor and a medium - term positive factor because it is a replacement storage [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [31]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the Chinese demand remains stable [36]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [39]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, with no special or notable values [47][54]. - The prices of rubber and black commodities move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [50]. 3.4. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is between 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [58]. - The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases [58]. 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 61.31% (-3.19%), showing a downward trend. The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the peak of the rush - export of semi - steel tires to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken [19]. - The demand from the middle - stream industry: the prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of tires is highly prosperous, but it is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][70]. 3.6. Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values in production, consumption, export, and import data [75][79][82]. - In September 2025, the rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33% [105]. - The production and export data of major rubber - producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and China in September 2025 are provided, along with their year - on - year and month - on - month changes [105][106].