1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rubber market should shift to a bearish mindset. The subsequent supply and demand positive factors are diminishing, and it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high from January to February according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The revision of the NR delivery rules by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is expected to increase the delivery quality and quantity of NR, making it more in line with the needs of the tire industry and rubber traders [15]. - The price of rubber is expected to turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - The postponement of EUDR will lead to a series of reactions such as inventory reduction in the stocking links of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - In January, it is still the winter storage season, but the subsequent supply and demand positive factors are decreasing. From January to February, it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU. The reports on January 4, 8, and 9 have all indicated the downward risk of the rubber price [12]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has revised the NR delivery rules, which are expected to improve the quality of physical delivery commodities, standardize packaging and production processes, and optimize the management of inspection validity periods in the delivery process. It is beneficial to increase the delivery quantity of NR [15]. - The market logic: the bulls are mainly based on the expectation of winter storage in China and the positive expectation of Chinese policies, while the bears' main reasons are the dull demand reality and the expectation of poor demand due to the tariff - increasing policy. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the medium term, the policy expectation is the key. The rubber price is gradually turning bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - Strategy recommendation: for the hedging strategy, go long on the NR main contract and short RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the spread is above 3250, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading [19]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand expectation for rubber is marginally weakening, while the Chinese demand is stable [31]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values or points of concern [41][44][48]. 3.4. Cost Side - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is low [52]. 3.5. Demand Side - The full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rates show no special values or points of concern [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the subsequent demand is expected to gradually recover, which will affect the supporting tires. The commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but the subsequent demand is expected to decline slightly [63]. 3.6. Supply Side - Most of the rubber import data sources were last updated in December 2021, and the import data is less analyzable after the 2020 pandemic [67]. - The supply of rubber from major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern [71][75][78]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1,167.7 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The cumulative production was 10,263 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.24%. The export was 869.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. The cumulative export was 8,837 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.73%. The consumption was 911.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The cumulative consumption was 10,001 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.86% [102][103]. 3.7. Butadiene and Related Products - The total capacity of butadiene with spot sales is 179.65 tons, accounting for 27.99%, and the total capacity without spot sales is 462.2 tons, accounting for 72.01%. The total capacity of butadiene rubber is 181.2 tons [117]. - Many butadiene production facilities have experienced maintenance, shutdown, and restart situations in 2025. Some production facilities have plans for future maintenance or shutdown [118]. - The weekly average operating load of butadiene rubber is 75.90%. Some enterprises have plans for shutdown or production reduction [119]. - In 2025, the new butadiene production capacity increased by 113 tons, with a growth rate of 16%. The new production capacity in Q4 2025 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and decrease the processing profit. The import expectation of butadiene is high, which weakens the price [121][122]. 3.8. Ethylene and Related Products - In 2026 - 2027, many ethylene projects are expected to be put into production, with a total planned new capacity of 1,935 tons. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle [123][124]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 62 tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%. The supply pressure of butadiene is expected to decrease, but it will still be under pressure, and butadiene rubber will still drag down the price among the four major rubber varieties [126][127].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various futures markets as of December 8, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different commodities, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Capital Flow Summary - Copper (CU) saw the highest capital inflow of 3.02 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Styrene (EB) and Zinc (ZN) followed with inflows of 0.87 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, suggesting positive market sentiment for these commodities [1]. - On the other hand, commodities like palm oil (P), tin (SN), and urea (UR) experienced significant outflows, with capital reductions of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 0.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Price and Basis Rate Analysis - The report includes detailed pricing data for various commodities, such as iron ore (I) priced at 787 yuan per ton with a basis rate of 3.48% [5]. - The futures price for rebar (RB) is noted at 3280 yuan per ton, with a basis rate of 5.93%, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [5]. - The report also highlights the price movements of other commodities, such as aluminum (AL) and nickel (NI), with respective prices of 21920 yuan per ton and 122690 yuan per ton, showing slight declines in their basis rates [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on October 15, with the main contracts experiencing both gains and losses [1] - Natural rubber (20号胶) and butadiene rubber saw increases of over 1% [1] - On the downside, styrene (苯乙烯), iron ore (铁矿石), pure benzene (纯苯), and soda ash (纯碱) all fell by more than 1%, while hot-rolled coil (热卷) dropped nearly 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures night market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Silver futures rose over 2%, reflecting strong demand in the precious metals sector [1] - Fuel oil and No. 20 rubber (NR) both increased by more than 1%, suggesting a bullish trend in energy and rubber markets [1] - In contrast, rebar and white sugar experienced slight declines, indicating some weakness in the construction and agricultural sectors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the three major rubber futures contracts showed a slightly stronger trend with limited gains due to minor improvements in the rubber's fundamentals and a relatively warm macro - environment. The cost of rubber is supported by weather, and the inventory has a slight structural improvement. The downstream tire demand has resilience, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the price will fluctuate within a range, with external macro - disturbances likely to widen the price fluctuation range [6][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU), 20 - numbered rubber (NR), and synthetic rubber (BR) had monthly increases of 3.12%, 3.04%, and 3.66% respectively, with corresponding increases in positions of 56,608 lots, 5,873 lots, and 19,561 lots. The domestic stock market rose unilaterally in August, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased. The cost of rubber was supported by weather, the monthly rubber inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream tire demand had resilience [6] 2. Data Analysis - **Raw material prices**: As of August 28, the glue price in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 50.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in major producing areas were firm, and the cost support would remain in September due to weather affecting the peak - season output [8] - **Imports**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 47.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 360.05 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82%. Thailand's exports decreased significantly, while Vietnam and Laos had obvious increases. Vietnam became the second - largest source country [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade spot inventory, and domestic third - party inventory all decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but were higher than the same period last year. The overall inventory had a slight structural improvement but still faced greater pressure than last year [13] - **Raw material and production cost**: In August, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated within a narrow range. The theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber enterprises was 240.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss range fluctuated within a narrow range [15] - **Butadiene rubber inventory**: As of August 29, the total inventory of butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 3.172 tons, with a small change from the beginning of the month but an increase of 7,370 tons compared to last year. The inventory removal was under pressure due to increased supply [18] - **Tire exports**: In July 2025, the export volume of China's truck and bus tires reached 45.44 tons, breaking the monthly record for the third time this year. The export volume of passenger car tires was 32.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. However, the export pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [19] - **Tire inventory**: As of the end of August, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39 days, 4 days less than last year, with good inventory removal. The inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 46 days, 4 days more than last year, with slow inventory removal [21] - **Tire capacity utilization**: As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a 5.63% increase from the beginning of the month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, with little change from the beginning of the month but an 8.73% decrease year - on - year [23] 3. Future Outlook - The macro - environment has limited impact on the commodity market, and the actual improvement of terminal demand needs further observation. The rubber cost is supported by weather, the inventory has a slight structural improvement, and the downstream tire demand may be boosted in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, whether the supply - demand relationship can be substantially improved depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory removal speed [27]

Group 1 - Domestic futures night trading closed mixed, with caustic soda rising over 2% [1] - Butadiene rubber, rubber, and No. 20 rubber (NR) increased by more than 1% [1] - In terms of declines, fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures contracts closed higher, with notable increases in glass prices exceeding 3% and coking coal prices rising over 2% [1] - Iron ore, coke, palm oil, rapeseed oil, rebar, and soda ash all saw price increases of more than 1% [1] - In contrast, certain commodities such as NR rubber, corn, PTA, asphalt, starch, PX, and bottle flakes experienced slight declines [1]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance at midday, with SC crude oil rising over 3% [1] - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) increased by more than 2%, while asphalt, rapeseed meal, Shanghai aluminum, and Shanghai gold rose over 1% [1] - On the downside, coking coal, soda ash, and European shipping rates fell by more than 2%, with rubber, NR (20 rubber), pulp, coke, manganese silicon, urea, lithium carbonate, and glass dropping over 1.5% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw most of the main contracts rise in early trading, with aluminum alloy increasing by over 4% [1] - Styrene (EB) rose by more than 3%, while 20 rubber (NR) increased by over 2% [1] - On the downside, Shanghai zinc fell by more than 1%, and both stainless steel (SS) and Shanghai nickel dropped nearly 1% [1]