1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the downstream product demand is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal off - season of imports, and the profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, so the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the overhaul of downstream semi - steel tires is completed, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term because of the slight decline in domestic butadiene supply and the continuous decline in domestic port inventory, which eases the supply pressure of butadiene. Meanwhile, the restart of downstream overhaul devices benefits the demand for butadiene. In the loss pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continuous rebound of cis - butadiene rubber. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of overhaul devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cis - butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,745 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,685 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - The start - up of semi - steel tire enterprises that had undergone maintenance has mostly returned to a high level. Due to the decrease in supply, under normal shipments of enterprises, there was a small shortage of some domestic sales specifications in some enterprises, which had little impact on the overall situation. The restorative increase in the capacity utilization rate of enterprises had a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - In June, the national passenger car market retailed 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 210 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,870 yuan/ton (an increase of 45.02), the NR basis was 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 17), the price of full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the STR20 was quoted at 1,745 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.08), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.05 baht/kg (an increase of 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.25 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.25) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (a decrease of 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (an increase of 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (a decrease of 248), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (an increase of 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (a decrease of 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (an increase of 7,258) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (an increase of 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (an increase of 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 959 yuan/ton (an increase of 1) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54% (a decrease of 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (a decrease of 530), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (an increase of 150) [3]

Summary of Rubber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the natural rubber industry, particularly in Thailand and China, discussing supply, demand, pricing, and market dynamics for 2025 [1][2][5][6]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - Thailand's natural rubber exports increased by over 30% from January to May 2025, while production only grew by 5-8%, leading to accelerated domestic inventory depletion [1][2]. - Domestic prices for raw rubber in Hainan have been declining since May 2025, despite a late harvesting season [2][4]. - The total production of all-latex in Yunnan reached 20,000 tons by early June 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, contributing to a weaker RU futures market [4][6]. - Upstream processing profits are relatively low, with losses between $10 and $20 per ton, indicating a less severe loss compared to previous years [2][3]. Import Trends - Domestic natural rubber imports increased by over 20% from January to May 2025, but low import profits since April have reduced import enthusiasm, potentially leading to a decline in imports starting August [5][6]. Demand Trends - The demand side is showing weakness, with increased inventory levels and reduced confidence among tire manufacturers. The cancellation of automotive incentives has further dampened expectations for vehicle sales in the second half of 2025 [6][7]. - The overall demand for natural rubber is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, with supply growth outpacing demand growth significantly [7][8]. Price Outlook - The supply growth rate is projected to exceed 20% in the first half of 2025, while demand growth is only 2-3%, indicating a supply surplus for the year [7][8]. - If rapid inventory depletion occurs starting in August, it may support spot prices, leading to potential price recovery in the latter half of the year [7][8]. Market Risks and Considerations - The market is currently in a weak oscillation phase, with limited upward momentum and potential for further declines if supply remains stable and demand continues to weaken [8][9]. - The upstream sector is facing losses of 500-600 RMB per ton, which could create a relatively safe short position if raw material prices do not decline [9][10]. - The impact of international oil price increases on synthetic rubber could indirectly affect natural rubber prices, although no significant changes have been observed yet [12]. Future Market Influences - The development of the electric vehicle industry and the cancellation of subsidies may negatively impact automotive consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure on tire manufacturers [13][14]. - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese tire exports could affect the market dynamics, particularly for semi-steel and full-steel tires, with potential implications for pricing and supply chains [15][16]. Production Capacity Adjustments - Major global tire manufacturers have begun to reduce production capacity in response to economic conditions and raw material price fluctuations, which may lead to short-term supply reductions and price support [23]. - China's tire production capacity expansion in Southeast Asia contrasts with the global trend of capacity reduction, indicating a potential oversupply situation in the future [24][25]. Conclusion - The natural rubber market is currently characterized by a supply surplus, weak demand, and declining prices, with various external factors influencing future trends. The industry must navigate these challenges while monitoring inventory levels and potential policy changes that could impact market dynamics [1][7][24].

Core Viewpoint - The financial institutions in Mengla County are actively supporting the entire natural rubber industry chain, contributing to the growth of the local economy and the improvement of farmers' incomes through various financial products and services [1][2]. Financial Support for Rubber Industry - The loan balance for the natural rubber industry in Mengla County reached 1.763 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.86% [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China in Xishuangbanna is promoting financial support for the "Natural Rubber Industry Chain Innovation Zone" in Mengla County [1][2]. Rural Revitalization and Income Growth - In the Hani ethnic village of Huilong, the average income per person reached 22,400 yuan last year, with multiple income sources including rubber tapping, catering, and homestays [3]. - Financial support from Mengla Rural Commercial Bank has enabled villagers to improve their living conditions and diversify their income sources [4]. Loan Products and Impact - The "Rural Revitalization Housing Loan" offered by Mengla Rural Commercial Bank has a maximum limit of 200,000 yuan and a repayment period of up to 10 years, addressing the financial needs of local farmers [4]. - As of April 2025, the bank has provided credit to 34 households in Huilong Village, with a total credit amount of 4.66 million yuan [4]. Rubber Tree as a Key Income Source - Rubber tapping remains the primary income source for villagers, contributing approximately 17,000 yuan per person annually, accounting for 75% of their total income [5]. - The financial institutions are increasing credit support for rubber growers to enhance production and income [5]. National Reserve Forest Project - The National Reserve Forest project in Mengla County aims to secure the supply of strategic materials like rubber and timber, with a total investment of 812.73 million yuan [7][8]. - The project includes the establishment of 133,800 acres of artificial rubber commodity forest and 24,400 acres of standardized medicinal herb gardens [7]. Integration of Industries - The financial institutions are facilitating the integration of the rubber industry with other sectors, promoting a model of "specialty economic forests + under-forest industries" [6][8]. - The project aims to enhance the quality of rubber production and support the transition to ecological and green development [8]. Support for Processing Enterprises - Mengla County is recognized for its advantages in rubber processing, with companies like Tianbang Rubber Co., Ltd. benefiting from financial support to address liquidity issues [9][10]. - The Agricultural Bank of China in Mengla has provided a total loan of 10 million yuan to Tianbang Rubber, facilitating its operational needs [10][11].

以下文章来源于CFC能源化工研究 ，作者中信建投期货 CFC能源化工研究 . 从宏观经济的周期出发，从三大一次能源的基础供需起步，回归到产业一线，精耕到品种细节，守望初心—金融如何更好地服务实体，中信建投期货能化 团队努力尝试展现品种背后的暗流涌动，尝试预估未来波澜壮阔的行情曲谱，我们在路上，我们在思考，我们在服务！ 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 刘书源 来源 | CFC能源化工研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 主要逻辑 4月16日，随着商品市场走弱，全球主要天然橡胶期货合约迎来回调。相较于单边价格的波动，上期所天然橡胶期货合约（下简 称"RU"）迎来的期限结构的强Back式收敛。全乳胶的供需平衡一般无法定价其单边价格，其单边价格更多取决于其基本面与20号胶基 本面的强弱关系，而全乳胶的供需平衡更多地去定价价差结构，期限结构便是其中之一。 今年国内云南和海南产区的天气条件显著优于去年同期，均未出现明显的高温少雨，在树况相对理想的情况下，均已按照往年季节性陆 续开割。故，从总量角度而言，国内天然橡胶（包含全乳胶）的产量在近期并未受太大影响；国内乳胶下游行业或在3月原料库存消化 后，于4月初开始 ...