Core Insights - Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company, TSMC, is projected to increase its foundry market share to 38% by Q2 2025, up from 31% year-over-year, driven by a 19% increase in foundry revenue due to AI demand and Chinese subsidies [1] - Advanced packaging technology is becoming increasingly important, with TSMC expected to maintain its leadership in both advanced process nodes and advanced packaging in the foreseeable future [1][2] - The OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) industry is experiencing a revenue growth rate acceleration from 5% to 11%, with companies like ASE and King Yuan benefiting significantly from AI GPU demand [2] Summary by Sections TSMC Market Share and Revenue Growth - TSMC's foundry market share is expected to rise to 38% by Q2 2025, compared to 31% in the same period last year [1] - The overall foundry revenue is anticipated to grow by 19% year-over-year, primarily due to the demand for advanced processes and packaging driven by AI and subsidies from China [1] - Counterpoint Research forecasts moderate single-digit growth in foundry revenue by Q3 2025 [1] Advanced Packaging and Technology Trends - Advanced packaging is becoming a crucial growth driver for chip manufacturers, with TSMC's strong technology and customer relationships positioning it well for future leadership [2] - The shift towards Foundry 2.0 indicates a transition from traditional foundry services to a more integrated technology platform, encompassing various semiconductor manufacturing processes [2] Application Processor (AP) Market Dynamics - TSMC is expected to dominate the application processor market with a projected 90% share in the 5nm or smaller process technology segment [3] - The demand for advanced semiconductor processes is increasing due to the growing need for performance and energy efficiency in high-end smartphones [4] - TSMC's market share in the sub-3nm AP manufacturing segment is projected to be around 87% this year, increasing to 89% by 2028 [4] Competitive Landscape - Samsung is working to improve its yield rates in the 3nm and below processes to catch up with TSMC, having recently stabilized its 3nm process [5] - Despite Samsung's efforts, TSMC continues to lead in advanced process technology, with significant market share in AP manufacturing for major clients like Apple and Qualcomm [4][5]

Group 1 - The global semiconductor foundry market (Foundry 2.0) is expected to see a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year by Q2 2025, driven primarily by advanced processes and advanced packaging [1] - TSMC's market share is projected to increase from 31% in Q2 2024 to 38% in Q2 2025, attributed to the ramp-up of 3nm technology and CoWoS expansion [1] - The OSAT industry is expected to accelerate its revenue growth rate from 5% to 11%, with notable contributions from companies like ASE and KYEC, the latter benefiting from AI GPU demand with over 30% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - Advanced packaging technology is becoming increasingly important, with chip manufacturers expected to rely on it to enhance chip performance [2] - The third quarter growth drivers include the traditional consumer electronics peak season, accelerated AI applications and orders, and current subsidy policies in mainland China [2] - Foundry 2.0 is defined as a transformation from traditional foundry services to a technology integration platform, encompassing pure foundry, non-memory IDM, OSAT, and photomask manufacturers [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the AI computing industry, highlighting the significant role of system vendors like NVIDIA and Google in shaping market trends, while TSMC and ASML are pivotal in providing technological platforms [1][2] - Silicon photonics technology emerged as a key topic, aimed at reducing energy consumption unrelated to computation, with large-scale commercialization expected by 2027 [1][2] Company Insights TSMC - TSMC is advancing steadily in its technology, with 2nm process expected to achieve mass production by 2025 and ongoing development of 3nm technology, enhancing its pricing power and customer profitability [1][3] - Under the Foundry 2.0 concept, TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is accelerating, with six operational factories and plans for four new ones, including expansions of CoWoS, SoIC, and CoPoS platforms [1][15] - TSMC's average selling price (ASP) has nearly doubled from $3,000 in 2019 to over $7,000 currently, driven by its technological advantages [13] - Future revenue growth for TSMC is heavily reliant on high-performance computing (HPC) clients, with a 70%-80% growth rate among these customers [16] - TSMC's capital expenditures have increased, with a peak in 2021 at 50% of revenue, but the pressure is expected to ease moving forward [21] Oracle - Oracle's capital expenditures have significantly increased, potentially linked to securing a large order from OpenAI, which could drive additional computing demand [3][19] - If Oracle executes on its projected orders, it could benefit not only itself but also related companies like SoftBank and Industrial Fulian [19] Industrial Fulian - Industrial Fulian is positioned to benefit from the AI-related capital expenditure cycle, particularly in its cloud service equipment segment, which is expected to see rapid growth in 2025 and 2026 [23][24] Market Dynamics - The energy consumption associated with AI development is rising sharply, with cabinet energy consumption projected to increase from 60 kW in 2022 to 120 kW in 2025, and potentially reaching 500 kW by 2027 [10] - New AI chip architectures are emerging, such as 3D stacking and RISC-V based designs, which could significantly impact the market landscape [11] Competitive Landscape - Google and NVIDIA have different approaches in the semiconductor solutions space, with Google utilizing over 9,000 TPUs, while NVIDIA focuses on GPUs [7] - TSMC and ASML are leading the global semiconductor technology landscape, with TSMC introducing GAA technology and ASML advancing EUV lithography [8] Investment Outlook - TSMC is expected to see annual profit growth of 25%-30% in the coming years, with an attractive valuation compared to its peers [4][22] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to continue evolving, with significant opportunities for companies like TSMC and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing supply chain [25]

Group 1: AI Market Overview - Significant investment in AI hardware and software is occurring globally as organizations and governments seek efficiency and productivity gains [1][2] - Gartner forecasts a 76% increase in generative AI spending by 2025, reaching $644 billion, indicating a robust growth opportunity in the sector [2] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is a leading player in the AI revolution, manufacturing high-end chips for various devices, and is the largest third-party chip foundry globally [4] - TSMC's revenue increased by 38% year-over-year in the first seven months of 2025, driven by strong demand from major clients like Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom [5] - The company raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to 30%, up from mid-20% expectations, with potential for further growth due to AI-related catalysts [6] - Sales of generative AI-capable smartphones are expected to rise by 68% in 2025, benefiting TSMC's largest customer, Apple, which reported a 13.5% increase in iPhone revenue [7] - TSMC's diverse customer base and focus on advanced chip packaging position it for healthy double-digit revenue growth in the coming years [9][11] - The stock is currently trading at an attractive valuation of 24 times forward earnings, below the Nasdaq-100 index's multiple of 30, making it a potentially good investment [12] Group 3: Twilio - Twilio is experiencing growth due to increased spending on generative AI services and software, with Gartner estimating a 119% rise to nearly $65 billion by 2025 [13] - The company's APIs facilitate customer communication across various channels, and its AI tools enhance customer service and marketing efforts [14] - Twilio reported a 57% year-over-year increase in large communications deals and a 10% rise in active customer accounts [15] - The dollar-based net expansion rate improved by 5 percentage points to 108%, indicating increased spending from existing customers [16] - Twilio's organic revenue growth estimate for 2025 has been raised by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a positive growth outlook [16] - The stock is trading at 3 times sales, slightly below the S&P 500's sales multiple, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [19]

Core Viewpoint - The shift of mature foundries like UMC and GlobalFoundries towards advanced processes is driven by market pressures, including fierce competition from Chinese foundries and a significant decline in the profitability of mature processes [2][10]. Group 1: Strategic Shifts of Mature Foundries - UMC is evaluating the feasibility of developing a 6nm process to support high-complexity applications, marking a significant strategic shift for a company that previously focused on mature processes [4]. - GlobalFoundries, which had previously abandoned advanced process development, is also showing renewed interest in advanced nodes due to changing customer demands [4][10]. - UMC and GlobalFoundries are exploring potential collaboration, which could lead to the formation of a new foundry giant that poses a structural threat to TSMC in the mature process segment [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Pressures - The rapid rise of domestic foundries in China, particularly SMIC, is reshaping the competitive landscape, with SMIC projected to surpass UMC in market capitalization by 2024 [8]. - The utilization rate of global mature process capacity has dropped from over 90% in 2022 to below 70% in 2024, leading to increased pricing pressures and reduced profit margins for mature foundries [9]. - UMC has reduced its capital expenditure budget to $1.8 billion for 2024, while SMIC continues to invest over $7 billion to expand its capacity [9]. Group 3: Challenges in Re-entering Advanced Processes - The estimated initial investment for a 6nm process is around $5 billion, which poses a significant financial challenge for companies transitioning from mature to advanced processes [11]. - The reliance on EUV technology for advanced nodes creates additional barriers, as the equipment is expensive and has limited availability, complicating the transition for companies like UMC and GlobalFoundries [11][12]. - The need to rebuild technical capabilities and attract talent in advanced processes presents a daunting challenge, as many skilled professionals have moved to leading players like TSMC and Samsung [13]. Group 4: Alternative Strategies from Other Foundries - Other foundries, such as VIS and PSMC, are focusing on niche markets and specialized processes, such as SiC and GaN, to differentiate themselves from competitors [15][16]. - Tower Semiconductor and X-FAB are also pursuing unique technological paths, emphasizing non-standard markets and regional manufacturing to avoid direct competition with Chinese foundries [17][18]. Group 5: The Landscape of Leading Foundries - Intel is facing challenges with its 18A process, considering significant strategic adjustments to attract key customers, while also dealing with delays in production timelines [20][21]. - Samsung has postponed its 1.4nm process launch to 2029, opting instead to enhance the efficiency of its existing processes to maintain profitability [25][26]. - TSMC continues to dominate the foundry market, with its market share increasing from 29.4% in Q1 2024 to 35.3% in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for AI and HPC chips [28].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a leading player in the global semiconductor industry, holding a dominant 67% share of the third-party foundry market, significantly ahead of Samsung's 11% [2][5] - The demand for AI chips is expected to drive TSMC's market cap significantly higher, with projections suggesting it could triple in the next five years [3][6] - TSMC is investing aggressively in expanding its manufacturing capabilities, with plans to invest $165 billion in the U.S. for new facilities and R&D [8][9] Market Position and Growth Potential - TSMC's foundry market share has increased from 58% to 67% over the past few years, indicating strong growth [2] - The global AI chip market is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 35% through 2033, with TSMC forecasting mid-40% compound annual growth for its AI accelerator revenue over the next five years [6][7] - The Foundry 2.0 market, which includes packaging and testing, is expected to grow to $298 billion in 2025, with TSMC's share projected to rise to 37% [11][12] Future Projections - If TSMC captures a 60% share of the Foundry 2.0 market in five years, its annual revenue could reach $262 billion, nearly three times its 2024 revenue [13] - With a higher sales multiple in five years, TSMC's market cap could exceed $3 trillion, reflecting its potential for accelerated growth compared to previous years [14]

Group 1 - The global semiconductor market is expected to transition from recovery in 2024 to steady growth in 2025, with the Foundry 2.0 market projected to reach $298 billion, marking an 11% year-on-year increase [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period from 2024 to 2029 is anticipated to be 10%, driven by sustained demand for artificial intelligence and gradual recovery in non-AI demand [1] - TSMC is expected to expand its market share in the Foundry 2.0 market to 37% by 2025, leveraging its technological advantages in advanced nodes below 5nm and advanced packaging [1] Group 2 - The demand rebound for consumer electronics is expected to drive a 4% average increase in utilization rates for mature nodes, contributing to an 18% growth in the overall foundry market by 2025 [5] - Non-memory IDM faces challenges due to insufficient AI accelerator deployment, with a modest growth of only 2% expected in 2025 [6] - The OSAT industry is projected to benefit from increased outsourcing by IDM, with an expected growth of 8% in 2025 driven by strong demand for advanced packaging related to AI accelerators [7] Group 3 - The semiconductor manufacturing chain is entering a new expansion wave, with AI driving demand for advanced nodes and packaging, while traditional application markets are gradually recovering [9] - The industry must navigate various variables, including geopolitical risks, national policies, supply-demand fluctuations from new capacities, and the commercialization of AI applications, which will shape the long-term trajectory of the semiconductor industry [9]

随着台积电拿走芯片制造更多利润，产业风险也在进一步聚集。 文丨 邱豪 贺乾明 编辑丨龚方毅 1990 年代，硅谷诞生数十家只设计、不制造的芯片公司（Fabless）。AMD 创始人杰瑞·桑德斯（Jerry Sanders）在一场行业会议上说："现在听我说，真正的 男人要有晶圆厂"。他认为，只做设计的芯片公司，只能在晶圆厂有空余产能时才能下单，还得把设计图纸无保留地交给竞争对手，容易让公司陷入困境。 十多年后，芯片行业沿着桑德斯预想的糟糕情况发展。按照他的标准，当前最强的一批芯片公司——苹果、英伟达、博通、高通等，都不是 "真男人"。AMD 也变成一家纯设计芯片的公司，经历多年阵痛后，在女性 CEO 苏姿丰带领下走出困境。 晶圆厂依旧重要，只是没几家能建得起最先进的。台积电保持绝对优势，生产全球 60% 的逻辑芯片、90% 的 5 纳米以内先进芯片。先进芯片制造领域，台积 电仅剩的两个对手各有各的困境： 与此同时，台积电董事长魏哲家在二季度财报电话会上提出 "Foundry 2.0" 的概念，称台积电的业务范围覆盖先进芯片的制造、封装、测试等流程。芯片设计 公司只要给台积电递交设计文件（GDS），几个月后就能收 ...