华尔街顶级投行正在告诉市场一个简单粗暴的事实：AI硬件的超级周期才刚刚开始，而台积电是这场 盛宴中不可撼动的"收费站"。 据追风交易台，摩根大通与野村证券在1月7日发布的最新研报中，不约而同地大幅上调了台积电的目标 价。摩根大通将目标价上调至2,100新台币，野村更是看高至2,135新台币。 这背后的逻辑简单而粗暴：产能极度紧缺，需求深不见底。AI数据中心的需求正在迫使台积电进入一 个新的结构性增长阶段。摩根大通直言，2026年台积电美元营收将暴增30%，并在2027年继续保持20% 以上的增速。野村则指出，受限于严重的供应短缺，台积电拥有极强的定价权，并将目标价直接看高至 2135新台币。 对于投资者而言，这意味着什么？摩根大通和野村证券认为： 2026年营收锁定30%增长，AI成为绝对主引擎 摩根大通预测，2026年将是台积电又一个强劲的增长年，美元营收同比增长将达到30%，而2027年也将 维持20%以上的增速。这一增长背后的核心驱动力毫无疑问是数据中心AI需求。 先进制程统治力稳固：N2爬坡速度惊人，N3需求爆发 尽管市场上有关于英特尔和三星在先进制程上竞争的杂音，但摩根大通明确指出，在N2/A16节 ...

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Projections - TSMC is expected to achieve **30% USD revenue growth in 2026**, driven by increased demand for N3 technology, a stronger ramp of N2, and growth in advanced packaging [1][11] - Revenue growth is projected to continue at **20+% in 2027**, supported by tight capacity in leading-edge nodes and ongoing investments in AI [1][11] Gross Margins and Financial Performance - Gross Margins (GMs) are anticipated to remain around **60% through 2026**, aided by a favorable product mix and higher yields from N3 technology [1][11][36] - GMs are expected to be elevated in **1H26** due to high demand for expedited wafer orders, which carry a significant price premium [1][36] Capacity Expansion and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is entering a **capex upcycle**, with expected capital expenditures of **$48 billion in 2026** and **$55 billion in 2027**, focusing on N2, N3, and US fab expansions [1][51] - N3 capacity is projected to reach **147k wafers per month by the end of 2026**, with significant contributions from capacity conversions and new builds [1][19][57] Datacenter AI Revenue Growth - Datacenter AI revenue is forecasted to grow at a **57% CAGR from 2024 to 2029**, driven by strong demand for GPUs and ASICs, larger die sizes, and higher wafer ASPs [1][29] - By 2029, Datacenter AI could represent over **40% of TSMC's total revenues**, up from mid-teens in 2024 [1][31] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TSMC is expected to maintain a **95% market share in AI accelerators** during the N2 era, despite competition from Intel and Samsung [1][49] - The company is not experiencing any significant share loss in leading-edge technology, with strong momentum in N2 tapeouts [1][42][49] Risks and Challenges - Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected gross margins and continued demand for N2 and N3 technologies [1] - Downside risks involve potential weakness in AI capital expenditures and increasing competition from Intel [1][11] Upcoming Guidance and Expectations - For **1Q26**, TSMC is expected to guide for flattish revenues quarter-over-quarter, with GMs projected to remain in the **61-63% range** [1][70] - The company will announce its **4Q25 results** on January 15, with expectations for revenues to exceed guidance [1][69] Additional Important Insights - Non-wafer revenues are expected to grow by **44% and 29% in 2026 and 2027**, respectively, driven by CoWoS expansion and increased adoption of advanced packaging technologies [1][21] - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion plans are in response to strong demand from major clients like NVDA and Apple, indicating robust future growth potential [1][51][68]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 AI应用快速普及，高速运作芯片大量导入先进封装，推升封测需求，台积电「CoWoS」成为家喻户 晓的先进封装技术。除了CoWoS之外，台积电也积极开发下一代封装技术如「CoPoS」，意即把 CoWoS面板化，透过「化圆为方」来提升面积利用率与单位产量。还有一种「CoWoP」也被誉为次 世代封装技术，把芯片和中介层直接装在高精度PCB板之上，有助于芯片散热，但两者在开发过程都 面临不同的挑战，尚待克服。 根据工研院产科国际所预估，2025年台湾半导体封测产业产值将达新台币7,104亿元，年成长率达 13.9%。 2026年，在AI/HPC基础设施大规模部署需求下，封测产值将稳定成长至7,590亿元，年增 6.8%。 工研院产科国际所分析师陈靖函表示，随着摩尔定律逐渐逼近物理极限，单一芯片上的电晶体数量已 难以持续呈指数成长，封装技术遂成为决定芯片效能的关键。透过将多个小芯片紧密整合于单一IC 中，可有效提升数据传输频宽，并降低能耗与延迟，对追求极致记忆体频宽与低延迟的AI芯片尤为关 键。 为满足这些需求，AI加速器普遍采用HBM（高频宽记忆体），使得如CoWoS（C ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's introduction of the TWINSCAN XT:260 marks its strategic entry into the advanced packaging market, highlighting the increasing importance of advanced packaging in semiconductor technology as traditional scaling approaches physical limits [2][34]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The advanced packaging market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the rising demand for AI chips and high-performance computing, with a projected market size of $45.73 billion in 2024, expected to reach $113.33 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% [3]. - The demand for advanced packaging equipment is also on the rise, with projections indicating that the backend equipment revenue will reach approximately $7 billion by 2025 and exceed $9 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of nearly 6% [3]. Group 2: Equipment Trends - Key equipment areas such as thermal compression bonding (TCB) and hybrid bonding are rapidly growing, with the TCB market expected to reach $936 million by 2030, driven by integration needs in memory and AI platforms [6]. - The hybrid bonding equipment market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.1%, reaching $397 million by 2030, emphasizing its critical role in advanced 3D integration [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players in the backend equipment market include DISCO, BESI, K&S, ASMPT, and Hanmi, each specializing in different aspects of semiconductor manufacturing [21]. - DISCO leads in wafer thinning and cutting technologies, while BESI focuses on hybrid bonding equipment, indicating a diverse competitive landscape [23][26]. Group 4: ASML's Strategic Position - ASML's TWINSCAN XT:260 is designed specifically for advanced packaging, filling a technological gap in high-end packaging lithography and enhancing production efficiency and precision [34][37]. - The XT:260 features significant advancements, including a resolution of 400nm and a production efficiency of 270 wafers per hour, which is four times that of previous models [37]. Group 5: Domestic Market Challenges and Opportunities - Domestic suppliers currently meet less than 14% of local backend equipment demand, facing challenges from reliance on imported technologies and geopolitical uncertainties [41]. - However, domestic manufacturers are gaining momentum, supported by policies and capital investments, with expectations that the domestic backend equipment localization rate will exceed 20% by 2025 [42].

Core Insights - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) remains strong, leading to full capacity utilization for TSMC's advanced packaging in the coming year [1] - Major players like ASE Technology and KYEC are also experiencing significant orders, prompting them to expand production [1] - The generative AI wave initiated by OpenAI is driving explosive growth in HPC orders from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with demand expected to last at least until the end of next year [1] Group 1 - TSMC is the sole supplier of high-performance computing capacity for NVIDIA and AMD, with its 2nm and 3nm advanced processes and SoIC, CoWoS advanced packaging fully booked [1] - ASE Technology is accelerating its advanced packaging and testing outsourcing to meet the substantial demand from AI clients [1] - ASE's subsidiary, SPIL, is set to complete its new facilities in Erlin and Douliu next year, alongside the acquisition of a facility in Kaohsiung, enhancing its operational capacity [1] Group 2 - KYEC has successfully secured a major testing order from NVIDIA for high-performance computing, with GB200/300 orders currently in mass production [2] - The testing capacity for NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin platform is expected to commence by the end of this year [2]

Summary of TSMC's SiC Strategy and Industry Insights Industry and Company Overview - The document focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and its strategy regarding Silicon Carbide (SiC) in the context of advanced packaging and AI chip demands [1][2][3] - Other companies mentioned include NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and AWS, highlighting the competitive landscape in AI and HPC (High-Performance Computing) [22][60] Core Insights and Arguments 1. Challenges in AI Chip Design - The increasing complexity and power demands of AI chips have made traditional power delivery methods inadequate, leading to issues like IR drops and transient voltage droops [5][6] - Single GPUs now require over 1000A of current, pushing legacy power delivery systems to their limits [6][22] 2. Innovative Solutions - Foundries and OSAT providers are proposing solutions like Marvell's PIVR and ASE's VIPack to optimize power delivery and thermal performance [8][9] - TSMC's CoWoS-L platform integrates IVRs and eDTCs to enhance power stability and reduce voltage drop [12][13] 3. SiC's Role in Advanced Packaging - SiC is emerging as a critical material for high-voltage ICs and on-chip power delivery, supporting developments in BSPDN and IVR architectures [19][20] - Its unique properties, such as high thermal conductivity and mechanical strength, position SiC as a key enabler for thermal management and optical interconnects [21][51] 4. Market Dynamics - The demand for ultra-large-scale GPUs and ASICs is driving the need for advanced materials and packaging solutions [22][23] - TSMC is exploring SiC as an interposer material to meet the increasing bandwidth and power demands of AI/HPC packaging [61] 5. Competitive Landscape - TSMC's advancements in SiC could provide a competitive edge over Intel and Samsung, who are also investing in power delivery and packaging technologies [60][61] - The introduction of SiC substrates into TSMC's platforms could reshape the AI semiconductor supply chain [59] Additional Important Insights 1. Bottlenecks in Process and Packaging Technologies - The document identifies three critical bottlenecks: thermal challenges, power delivery bottlenecks, and electro-optical integration demands [26][33][35] - TSMC is addressing these through diversified packaging solutions and exploring next-gen silicon photonics [38][39] 2. Future Directions - The integration of SiC into TSMC's advanced packaging platforms like COUPE could redefine the industry's approach to thermal, electrical, and optical challenges [59] - The document emphasizes the importance of overcoming challenges related to defect density, process compatibility, and cost structure for SiC adoption [66][67] 3. SiC in Optical Applications - SiC is also highlighted for its potential in optical waveguides, particularly for AR glasses, due to its high refractive index and thermal conductivity [68][75] - The combination of SiC with Micro LED technology is seen as a promising pathway for future AR displays [77] 4. Research and Development - Ongoing research is focused on the feasibility of integrating SiC with TSV structures to enhance power integrity and thermal management [64][65] - TSMC's patent portfolio indicates a strong commitment to SiC integration in advanced packaging technologies [65] This comprehensive analysis underscores TSMC's strategic focus on SiC as a transformative material in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and HPC advancements.

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is transitioning into the "post-Moore era," where traditional scaling methods are becoming less effective due to physical limits and rising costs. Advanced packaging technologies are emerging as a key focus area, driven by the demand for AI chips requiring high performance and low latency [1]. Industry Overview - The global advanced packaging market is projected to exceed $79.4 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% from 2024 to 2030, primarily fueled by AI and high-performance computing demands [1]. - Major players in the advanced packaging sector include TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, each adopting unique competitive strategies to dominate the high-end packaging market [1]. TSMC's Advanced Packaging Strategy - TSMC leads the advanced packaging market with its "3D Fabric" platform, which includes CoWoS, InFO, and SoIC technologies, covering various application scenarios [2]. - The CoWoS technology has evolved to its fifth generation, supporting high-density integration and significantly enhancing memory bandwidth for high-performance computing applications [5]. - InFO technology focuses on cost-sensitive applications, enabling low-cost, thin packaging solutions, while SoIC technology allows for true 3D chip stacking [6][10]. Intel's Advanced Packaging Approach - Intel is developing its advanced packaging capabilities through EMIB and Foveros technologies, targeting high-performance computing and AI markets [7]. - EMIB technology connects bare chips using silicon bridges, while Foveros enables vertical stacking of chips, enhancing flexibility and performance [10]. Samsung's Advanced Packaging Innovations - Samsung is advancing its packaging technologies with I-Cube and X-Cube systems, addressing both 2.5D and 3D IC packaging needs [11]. - The I-Cube technology integrates logic chips and HBM on the same interposer, while the X-Cube technology enhances system integration through vertical electrical connections [12][13]. - Samsung is also focusing on SoP (System on Panel) technology, which aims to challenge TSMC's dominance in high-end AI chip packaging by offering larger integration spaces and lower costs [14][16]. Domestic Players in Advanced Packaging - Chinese companies are making strides in the advanced packaging sector, with a projected market size of 69.8 billion yuan in 2024, driven by firms like Changjiang Electronics Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology [17]. - Changjiang Electronics is recognized as a leader in advanced packaging, leveraging its XDFOI Chiplet platform to support high-density interconnections [18]. - Tongfu Microelectronics has established a strong position through collaborations with AMD, focusing on AI and HPC advanced packaging [20]. - Huatian Technology is expanding its capabilities in advanced packaging through significant R&D investments and partnerships [22]. Future Outlook - The global advanced packaging market is expected to reach $56.9 billion by 2025, surpassing traditional packaging for the first time, with domestic firms poised to capture more market share [32]. - The ongoing development of AI computing chips and the trend towards self-sufficiency in high-end advanced packaging present significant opportunities for domestic players to narrow the gap with international leaders [32].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly advancements in AI chips, heterogeneous integration, advanced packaging, and optical interconnect technologies, reflecting the growing importance of these areas in the market [2][3][20]. Core Findings 1. **TSMC's Capacity Expansion**: TSMC is expected to expand its CoWoS capacity to 100kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 70kwpm at the end of 2025, driven by robust demand for Cloud AI GPUs and ASICs [3]. 2. **AI Computing Demand**: AI computing requirements have surged by 10x in the past year, necessitating advancements in chip scaling, memory, and interconnect technologies [3]. 3. **3.5D Advanced Packaging**: The event highlighted significant discussions around 3.5D advanced packaging, which is anticipated to become mainstream for high-performance computing, improving cost structures and product design speeds [3]. 4. **Heterogeneous Integration**: The trend towards co-packaged optics (CPO) is gaining traction, with expectations for power consumption to be optimized by 2028, allowing for the replacement of copper in AI server integrations [3]. 5. **Testing Innovations**: The complexity of die and package designs is increasing the need for more rigorous testing at the wafer/die level to identify yield issues early [3]. Stock Recommendations - Top stock picks in the Greater China semiconductor sector include TSMC, ASE, MediaTek, Alchip, and Aspeed, all rated as "Buy" due to their structural AI opportunities [4]. Additional Insights - **Optical Interconnects**: Nvidia's advancements in networking infrastructure, particularly with its Spectrum-X CPO solution, promise significant power savings and improved signal integrity [12]. - **AI Data Center Power Consumption**: The power consumption of AI data centers is projected to rise dramatically, with examples like Meta's Hyperion data center expected to consume 2GW by 2030 [16]. - **Challenges in Advanced Packaging**: The industry faces challenges in transitioning to panel-level packaging and CoWoP technologies, which require overcoming technical hurdles related to system design and materials [30][39]. Emerging Technologies - **Silicon Photonics**: TSMC's COUPE platform aims to enhance integration of optics and electrical signaling, addressing bandwidth bottlenecks in computing performance [12]. - **GaN Technology**: GaN is highlighted for its efficiency and potential in powering AI applications, with Texas Instruments and Infineon leading developments in this area [36][38]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is at a pivotal point, driven by AI advancements and the need for innovative packaging and integration solutions. Companies like TSMC, Nvidia, and MediaTek are positioned to capitalize on these trends, while challenges in testing and power consumption remain critical areas for development [3][4][16][20].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the AI computing industry, highlighting the significant role of system vendors like NVIDIA and Google in shaping market trends, while TSMC and ASML are pivotal in providing technological platforms [1][2] - Silicon photonics technology emerged as a key topic, aimed at reducing energy consumption unrelated to computation, with large-scale commercialization expected by 2027 [1][2] Company Insights TSMC - TSMC is advancing steadily in its technology, with 2nm process expected to achieve mass production by 2025 and ongoing development of 3nm technology, enhancing its pricing power and customer profitability [1][3] - Under the Foundry 2.0 concept, TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is accelerating, with six operational factories and plans for four new ones, including expansions of CoWoS, SoIC, and CoPoS platforms [1][15] - TSMC's average selling price (ASP) has nearly doubled from $3,000 in 2019 to over $7,000 currently, driven by its technological advantages [13] - Future revenue growth for TSMC is heavily reliant on high-performance computing (HPC) clients, with a 70%-80% growth rate among these customers [16] - TSMC's capital expenditures have increased, with a peak in 2021 at 50% of revenue, but the pressure is expected to ease moving forward [21] Oracle - Oracle's capital expenditures have significantly increased, potentially linked to securing a large order from OpenAI, which could drive additional computing demand [3][19] - If Oracle executes on its projected orders, it could benefit not only itself but also related companies like SoftBank and Industrial Fulian [19] Industrial Fulian - Industrial Fulian is positioned to benefit from the AI-related capital expenditure cycle, particularly in its cloud service equipment segment, which is expected to see rapid growth in 2025 and 2026 [23][24] Market Dynamics - The energy consumption associated with AI development is rising sharply, with cabinet energy consumption projected to increase from 60 kW in 2022 to 120 kW in 2025, and potentially reaching 500 kW by 2027 [10] - New AI chip architectures are emerging, such as 3D stacking and RISC-V based designs, which could significantly impact the market landscape [11] Competitive Landscape - Google and NVIDIA have different approaches in the semiconductor solutions space, with Google utilizing over 9,000 TPUs, while NVIDIA focuses on GPUs [7] - TSMC and ASML are leading the global semiconductor technology landscape, with TSMC introducing GAA technology and ASML advancing EUV lithography [8] Investment Outlook - TSMC is expected to see annual profit growth of 25%-30% in the coming years, with an attractive valuation compared to its peers [4][22] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to continue evolving, with significant opportunities for companies like TSMC and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing supply chain [25]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI chips by companies like NVIDIA has led to a surge in demand for advanced packaging services from TSMC, forcing the company to accelerate its production plans significantly [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Production Challenges - TSMC is a leading supplier in advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, but it is currently unable to meet the overwhelming market demand on its own [4]. - The company has been compelled to speed up its production processes by more than 75%, and in some cases, by up to a year, deviating from traditional sequential deployment methods [4]. - The product cycles for AI GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA typically range from 6 months to a year, resulting in a sustained high demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and SoIC [4]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - To address these challenges, TSMC is implementing several forward-looking strategies, including pre-ordering necessary equipment and collaborating with local packaging suppliers [4]. - TSMC has formed a "3DIC Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Alliance," which includes members such as TSMC, ASE, and several other companies, to enhance its production capabilities [4]. - The introduction of NVIDIA's Rubin product line, which will debut six months after the Blackwell Ultra, highlights the need for timely delivery and adaptation to significant architectural differences between product lines [4].