专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 世界正式确立了G2格局。 自去年11月美国新总统就任后，大家普遍担心中美之间的贸易摩擦会升级，甚至失控，引发对经济严重 的冲击。剧情的前半部分发展如多数人的预期进行，但故事的结局却出乎了99.99%的人的预期。如果 很久以后的后人将这段历史拍成电影，那一定是一部优秀的作品，剧情大反转出乎所有人的预料，但细 细体会又都在情理当中。逻辑也不复杂，自二战结束后80年的全球化加速进程，绝不可能三年五载彻底 终结，中国制造与供应链，已经与世界各国彻底交融在一起了，中短期内，没有一个国家可以与中国彻 底脱钩！这就是我们能够在贸易战中变被动为主动的根本。 4月7日，美国宣布对全世界几乎所有的国家采取"对等关税"政策，全世界所有国家都陷入错愕、震惊与 慌乱中。只有中国采取了果断坚决的对等反制措施，双方你来我往不断加码征收对方国的进口关税提高 到了贸易继续无法进行下去的水平。在5月初我写的那一期伟志思考中，写下了下面这段文字， 伟志思考：2026年展望--感恩时代拥抱牛市 来源：中欧瑞博 回顾2025--贸易战从高潮到中止，全球正式步入G2时代 2025年中国 ...

2025年A股最后一个交易日圆满收官。回望全年，市场交易活跃，"日成交超万亿"已成常态，结构性"科技牛"行情贯穿始终，各大主要指数全线飘红，交出 亮眼成绩单。其中，创业板指以近50%的年度涨幅强势领跑；沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关，创下近十年新高；A股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年 内新增近23万亿元，一举刷新历史纪录。 从个股角度来看，2025年的十大牛股涨幅均超过500%。其中，上纬新材以1821%涨幅夺魁，天普股份以1662%涨幅位居第二，*ST宇顺（719%）、*ST亚振 （636%）紧随其后，胜宏科技（588%）排在第五。 十大牛股：科技方向全线爆发，最高涨幅超18倍 从个股涨幅角度来看，今年市场共有11股涨超500%。从领涨的个股属性上看，主要算力（天普股份、*ST宇顺、胜宏科技、鼎泰高科）题材占有四席，ST 股也有两只。 c 厕康社 2025年十大牛股 1. 上纬新材 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 127.37 513.8 机器人、化工新材料 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 1821% 2. 天普股份 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 292.3 218.02 ...

智通财经12月29日讯，今日72股涨停，26股炸板，封板率为73%，胜通能源12连板，嘉美包装12天10 板，神剑股份8连板，锋龙股份、鲁信创投、中国卫星、大业股份4连板，天奇股份、泰尔股份、扬子新 材3连板。三大指数涨跌不一，沪指微涨走出九连阳，创业板指一度跌超1%。沪深两市成交额2.14万 亿，较上一个交易日缩量209亿。板块方面，碳纤维、脑机接口、商业航天板块涨幅居前；医药商业、 能源金属、锂电池板块跌幅居前。盘面上，全市场超3300只个股下跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成 指跌0.49%，创业板指跌0.66%。 取决于全球流动性充裕态势能否延续，结合当前整个算力硬件股不少品种处于历史高点附近，短期流动 性的不确定性仍不利于AI硬件股继续向上拓展空间。 央行最新出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》，该 《行动方案》将于2026年1月1日起正式启动实施。数字货币概念受此提振展开像样拉升，御银股份、翠 微股份涨停，拉卡拉收涨超10%，恒宝股份尾盘一度触及涨停。作为传统人气板块之一，包括数字货币 概念在内的整个互联网金融板块的走势，仍对指数短线情绪形成一定影响，包 ...

Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers in China's stock market has garnered significant attention, with companies like Cambricon (寒武纪) and Moore Threads (摩尔线程) achieving remarkable stock price increases upon their listings [2][3] - The market is witnessing a surge in domestic GPU manufacturers, with several companies preparing for IPOs, indicating a growing interest in AI chip production [3][4] - Despite high expectations for domestic AI chips, challenges remain, including competition from established players like NVIDIA and the need for these companies to prove their value in a crowded market [10][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cambricon surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares, reflecting investor enthusiasm for AI chip stocks [2] - Moore Threads and Muxi Technology saw their stock prices soar on their debut, with Muxi achieving a record profit for new listings in nearly a decade [2][3] - The entry of NVIDIA's H200 chip into the Chinese market adds complexity to the competitive landscape for domestic GPU manufacturers [3][16] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Moore Threads, Muxi, Bilan Technology, and Tensu Zhixin from 2022 to 2024 shows significant increases, but all companies reported substantial losses during the same period [7][8] - The revenue from the top five customers for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with some companies relying on a small number of clients for the majority of their income [9][10] Group 3: Market Share and Competition - The market share of domestic GPU manufacturers remains low, with Muxi holding approximately 1% of the AI accelerator market in 2024, and other companies reporting similar figures [9][10] - The competition among these manufacturers is intensifying, with no clear leader emerging in terms of market share or product performance [10][11] Group 4: Customer Dynamics - The customer base for these GPU manufacturers is highly concentrated, with significant fluctuations in client relationships, indicating potential revenue instability [9][10] - Major clients are increasingly shifting, with only a few companies remaining consistent among the top customers year over year [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The domestic GPU market is expected to see a gradual increase in localization, with projections indicating that the domestic GPU market's localization rate will rise from 2% in 2022 to over 50% by 2029 [12][13] - Companies are focusing on enhancing product performance and building a robust ecosystem to compete effectively against international players like NVIDIA [18][20]

中泰证券主要观点如下： 全球算力开支持续增长，领先厂商AI应用初见商业逻辑闭环。 1)北美四大 CSP 厂商加速资本开支，至 CY25Q2 时四大厂商单季度 Capex 均达到百亿美元量级。国内 阿里、腾讯也在快速加大资本开支投入。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，类比历次重大信息技术飞跃，当前AI产业发展仍处早中 期，"性能提升+成本下降"持续解锁更多落地场景，企业客户端也开始真正加大对AI的投入与使用。同 时，以"十五五"规划为纲领，我国AI应用产业也将迎来较好的政策与市场红利期，国内AI应用端有望快 速追赶海外AI应用产业，从而实现境内外AI应用共振浪潮。 随着AI主权化发展成为趋势，以及今年特朗普再次挑起全球贸易纷争与科技对抗，算力国产化与自主 可控紧迫性进一步加强。各级政府密集出台多项支持国产算力建设的政策与意见法规，以运营商、高校 为代表的国内主体也加强了对国产算力的招采使用力度。 同时，伴随我国半导体产业的快速发展与不断突破，国产芯片性能快速提升，而超节点等技术也通 过"以量补质"的方式帮助提升国产算力的能力。长期来看，AI产业长期趋势不变，对算力的需求也持续 景气，未来国产算力产业仍有 ...

证券日报网讯12月10日，电光科技（002730）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司已投建的千卡级 智算集群，采用了业界领先的高性能算力芯片。与此同时，公司高度关注算力国产化趋势，正积极规划 并按市场需求适时推进基于国产芯片的技术测试与集群建设。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Xiong Wei believes that by 2026, the application cases of AI in China will become more abundant and the monetization pace will accelerate, indicating a low likelihood of an "AI bubble" in the current stage [1]. Group 1: AI Development in China - By 2025, investor interest and recognition of AI development in China are expected to increase due to advancements in large model technology, computing infrastructure, and the widespread adoption by enterprises and consumers [1]. - In 2026, domestic large model capabilities are anticipated to rapidly iterate, catching up with their American counterparts, while both China and the U.S. will follow similar monetization paths in AI applications, particularly in cloud services and advertising [1]. - The localization of computing power is expected to continue, with breakthroughs in chip performance, leading to supernodes taking a larger share of inference and training workloads [1]. Group 2: Factors Mitigating AI Bubble Risks - The limited cycle of financing is a key reason for the low likelihood of an "AI bubble," as leading AI model developers are funded by internal cash flows from parent companies rather than third-party financing [1]. - Major Chinese internet companies are adopting a pragmatic approach to AI investments, focusing on return on investment and operational efficiency rather than excessive initial spending [1]. - The stability of the Internet Data Center (IDC) deployment rate and regulatory control over new supply, including strict management of electricity quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission, help prevent overbuilding [1]. Group 3: AI Disruption in Vertical Industries - The discussion around AI's potential to disrupt vertical industries is increasing among investors, but the pace of disruption in China may remain slow due to a more fragmented landscape of AI chatbots compared to the dominance of ChatGPT and Gemini in the U.S. [2]. - Vertical industry companies are actively integrating AI and intelligent agents into their applications, but the high entry barriers in sectors like online travel agencies (OTA) and online music content and user operations make it difficult for AI to easily replace existing capabilities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The electronic industry is undergoing a critical transition driven by AI, shifting from computing infrastructure to application implementation by 2026, with overall valuations being high and investment logic needing to shift from valuation expansion to profit realization [1][2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its rapid growth into 2026, with key trends including the push for domestic computing power and a significant cycle in storage [3] - The demand for AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to drive a new growth cycle in semiconductor manufacturing, with a focus on domestic semiconductor equipment and materials [3] Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to see accelerated development in AI applications, particularly in mobile devices and smart imaging equipment, leading to significant revenue growth [4] - Investment opportunities are emerging from the rapid penetration of AI in small-end devices and upgrades in large-end devices, including foldable screens and enhanced imaging functions [4] Components and Devices - The demand for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is expected to remain high due to AI, with leading manufacturers expanding production to meet growing downstream needs [5] - The storage industry's upward cycle is driving demand for packaging substrates, while passive components like chip inductors and tantalum capacitors are also areas of focus [5] - The optical components market is benefiting from the upgrade of smart phone optics and the proliferation of new consumer electronic products [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the home appliance composite materials sector, maintaining stable operations while strategically expanding into AI chips and servers, capitalizing on the domestic computing power wave, indicating significant future growth potential [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 30.06 billion, 35.22 billion, and 40.87 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.83, 1.19, and 1.68 RMB [10][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,340 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%. This is expected to grow to 2,526 million RMB in 2024, 3,006 million RMB in 2025, 3,522 million RMB in 2026, and 4,087 million RMB in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.9%, 19.0%, 17.2%, and 16.0% respectively [3][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 83 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 98 million RMB in 2024, 207 million RMB in 2025, 296 million RMB in 2026, and 417 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 25.5%, 18.3%, 111.2%, 43.1%, and 41.0% respectively [3][10]. Business Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the home appliance composite materials sector, focusing on PCM (pre-coated metal sheets) and VCM (film-coated metal sheets) used in various home appliances [19][20]. - The company has established a subsidiary, Haixi Technology, to advance its AI transformation, focusing on AI servers and intelligent computing centers, which have already begun to generate significant orders and profits [4][9]. AI Business Expansion - The AI business is expected to see rapid growth, with revenue projections of 300 million RMB in 2025, 600 million RMB in 2026, and 960 million RMB in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 100% and 60% for the latter two years [9][11]. - The company is actively building a diversified product matrix in the AI sector, including hardware, software, and industry-specific solutions, to enhance its market presence [39][44]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, estimating a reasonable valuation of 147.90 billion RMB based on a 50x PE for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 59.61 RMB per share [4][16]. - The average PE of comparable companies is around 43.54x for 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the company [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with significant movements in various sectors, particularly in defense, lithium, AI, and storage chips, while facing declines in gold and certain pharmaceutical stocks [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.43%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.35%, and ChiNext Index down 0.80% [1]. - The market continues to show a trend of adjustment, with strong performances in sectors such as defense, lithium resources, AI applications, and storage chips [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - **Defense and Military Industry**: The defense sector saw a strong performance, with stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and Jianglong Shipbuilding hitting the daily limit. Increased geopolitical tensions are expected to boost investment in national defense [3]. - **Lithium Sector**: The lithium sector rebounded, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Shares reaching the daily limit. The price surge in lithium materials and ongoing demand in the supply chain are driving this growth [4]. - **AI Sector**: Huawei's computing concept stocks surged, with companies like Huasheng Tiancheng and Dongfang Guoxin seeing significant gains. Huawei is set to release breakthrough AI technology, enhancing resource management for AI training [5]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The A-share sentiment index is declining, while the Hong Kong stock sentiment index is rising. Institutions are focusing on sectors like basic chemicals, defense, and non-bank financials [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The current market environment suggests a rotation towards sectors with earnings support, including energy storage, batteries, and military industries [8][9].