主业行稳致远，布局 AI 拓展业务边界 禾盛新材(002290) 禾盛新材（002290.SZ）首次覆盖报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.23 家用电器业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 [Table_Invest] [Table_CurPrice] 本报告导读： 公司作为家电复合材料领域龙头，其传统家电用复合材料业务保持稳健经营韧性， 前瞻布局 AI 芯片+服务器，拥抱算力国产化浪潮，未来发展空间广阔。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 2,340 | 2,526 | 3,006 | 3,522 | 4,087 | | (+/-)% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 17.2% | 16.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 83 | 98 | 207 | 296 | 417 | | (+/-)% | 25.5% | 18.3% | 111.2% ...

11月17日，三大指数弱势震荡，截至午间收盘，上证指数跌0.43%，深证成指跌0.35%，创业板指跌 0.80%。 盘面上，市场延续震荡调整态势。国防军工板块、福建板块集体走强，长城军工、江龙船艇等多股涨 停；华为昇腾、算力国产化概念表现强势，直真科技等涨停；AI语料、多模态等AI应用概念纷纷反 弹，三六零、宣亚国际等涨停；锂资源概念震荡走高，孚日股份、大中矿业等涨停；存储芯片板块再度 上扬，时空科技一度涨停；石油概念盘中活跃，和顺石油等涨停；量子科技、海南、民爆、煤炭等板块 均有所表现。 跌幅方面，黄金、工业金属板块再度领跌市场。创新药、减肥药、中药等医药股大幅回调，海辰药业跌 幅居前；保险、银行、券商板块大面积飘绿。 焦点个股方面，宁德时代跌超4%，公司重要股东、联合创始人黄世霖因自身资金需求，拟通过询价转 让方式出让公司4563.24万股股份，占公司总股本的1%；21天13板平潭发展回应再度涨停，公司目前生 产经营一切正常，若后续有停牌计划将及时履行信息披露义务。 展望后市，华安证券认为，市场内部扩散降温、高切低现象继续突出，这种情况预计仍将持续到中央经 济工作会议的预期交易前。短期轮动增多加快、但难以 ...

Core Insights - The capital market policies have increasingly favored the technology sector over the past two years, focusing on "supporting the development of new productive forces" [1] - The escalation of the US-China tech rivalry has acted as a catalyst for domestic innovation, with companies like Huawei and BYD making significant advancements [1] - A positive feedback loop has formed, characterized by "policy benefits → technological breakthroughs → market expansion" [1] - The ongoing domestic advancements in computing power, AI applications, and robotics are expected to enhance the competitiveness and valuation of Chinese tech companies against US counterparts [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have alleviated global dollar liquidity pressures, benefiting the valuation recovery of Hong Kong tech stocks [1] Industry Summary - The technology sector is experiencing a shift from being a "follower" to a "leader" in innovation, with significant breakthroughs in areas such as AI and robotics [1] - Companies like iFlytek have surpassed international counterparts in core capabilities, while the smart car industry has established a presence in the global market [1] - The influx of resources into the tech sector is supported by favorable policies, which are expected to continue driving growth and expansion [1] - The low interest rate environment is enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong tech stocks as high-growth assets, supported by increased foreign investment in emerging markets [1] ETF Overview - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [2]

Core Insights - The domestic computing power industry in China is entering a period of explosive growth by 2025, driven by high capital expenditure from major companies and a consensus on domestic computing power [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from the first phase of scale expansion to the second phase, which focuses on deep integration with the real economy and value creation [1] - The light module sector is expected to benefit significantly from this computing power revolution [1] Demand Side - Major companies are maintaining high growth in capital expenditure, contributing to the consensus on domestic computing power [2] - By 2025, China's intelligent computing power scale is projected to reach 1037.3 EFLOPS, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The global AI computing power market is expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, with China accounting for 38% of this market [3] Supply Side - Breakthroughs in advanced processes and innovations from companies like Cambrian and Moore Threads are leading to revenue growth [2] - The domestic computing power industry is gradually forming a self-controlled supply chain, supported by significant R&D investments [4] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase have shown strong financial performance, with Zhongji Xuchuang achieving a revenue of 14.789 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.95% [4] Market Dynamics - The light module market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly for high-speed products, with Zhongji Xuchuang's gross margin reaching 39.96% [4][5] - The competition landscape shows that Chinese manufacturers dominate the global midstream market, with Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase ranking among the top three globally [6] - The growth of GPU servers and the increasing penetration of silicon photonic modules are expected to drive further demand for light modules [7] Future Outlook - The capital expenditure of four major overseas cloud companies is expected to increase by 50% to $333.8 billion in 2025 [8] - The demand for light modules is anticipated to continue growing due to advancements in AI and deep learning applications [7][8] - Companies are focusing on high-quality delivery capabilities and supply chain management to maintain competitive advantages in the market [9]

Core Insights - The digital economy theme index (931582) has shown a strong increase of 1.11%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Shengmei Shanghai (688082) up by 8.32% and Zhongkong Technology (688777) up by 6.46% [1] - NVIDIA and OpenAI have announced a partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with an investment of up to $100 billion (approximately 71 billion RMB) from NVIDIA [1] - The Chinese intelligent computing power is projected to reach 725.3 exaFLOPS in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 74.1%, and is expected to reach 1,037.3 exaFLOPS in 2025, indicating a significant increase in demand for GPU and other chips [2] Digital Economy ETF Performance - The digital economy ETF (560800) has increased by 1.26%, with a trading volume of 8.0542 million RMB and a turnover rate of 1.15% [1] - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume of the digital economy ETF was 36.94 million RMB, ranking it first among comparable funds [1] Key Constituents of the Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the digital economy theme index account for 53.36% of the index, including Dongfang Caifu (300059), Cambricon (688256), and SMIC (688981) [3] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Dongfang Caifu (10.51%), SMIC (6.34%), and Northern Huachuang (5.12%) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly the domestic AI industry chain, is experiencing a pullback, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) seeing a nearly 5% drop in price, despite significant capital inflow over recent weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) has seen a cumulative increase of 58.60% since its recent low on April 8, outperforming other indices such as the Sci-Tech 50 (41.37%) and the Sci-Tech Composite Index (50.51%) [3][4]. - In the last five days, the ETF attracted 73.78 million yuan, and over the past 60 days, it has garnered 286 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Among the ETF's component stocks, Qi Anxin and New Point Software showed gains, while 28 other stocks declined, with notable drops in stocks like Cambrian (over 13%) and Lingyun Light (over 13%) [1]. - Cambrian, as a leading AI chip company, has seen its weight in the Sci-Tech 50 index exceed 15%, raising concerns about potential sell-offs due to index adjustments [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current rally in the semiconductor sector is a response to overseas market trends, with significant opportunities expected towards the end of the year and into next year as AI applications develop [5][6]. - The domestic AI sector is anticipated to continue growing, with projections indicating a doubling of market capacity by 2025 due to increasing demand for domestic computing power [6]. Group 4: Investment Highlights - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) is positioned to benefit from policy support and the trend of domestic substitution in technology, making it an attractive investment option [7]. - The ETF's structure allows for lower entry barriers and higher efficiency during market surges, with a significant concentration in semiconductor stocks [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 201.89 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth, with a focus on building a comprehensive computing power industry chain [6][12]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.464 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.201 billion, up 40.78% [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of domestic computing power localization and the rapid growth of AI technology, with predictions indicating that China's intelligent computing power scale will reach 2,781.9 EFLOPS by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% [6][8]. - The merger with Zhongke Shuguang aims to create a vertically integrated capability from chip design to server manufacturing and cloud computing services, enhancing competitiveness against international leaders [6][8]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.064 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.15%, and a net profit of 696 million, up 23.14% [5]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 59.33%, reflecting a decrease of 4.5 percentage points due to product mix adjustments and increased material costs [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow reached 2.177 billion in H1 2025, compared to a negative 113 million in the same period last year, indicating strong cash generation [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 13.949 billion, 19.906 billion, and 26.938 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 3.028 billion, 4.509 billion, and 6.324 billion [6][8]. - The expected revenue growth rates are 52.25% for 2025, 42.70% for 2026, and 35.33% for 2027 [8][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in Q2 performance, with revenue reaching 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 10 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year reduction in loss of 83.3% and a quarter-on-quarter reduction in loss of 44.1% [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 increased by 9.2 percentage points to 46.7%, with Q2 gross margin reaching 48.8%, up 4.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to supply chain and product structure optimization [7] - The company is successfully introducing high-end chip clients, enhancing its competitiveness. Its product line covers mid to high-end products, including switching capacities from 100Gbps to 25.6Tbps and port speeds from 100M to 800G, catering to various application fields [7] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which reached 240 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with an R&D expense ratio of 47.1% [7] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the domestic computing power wave, with long-term growth potential as its high R&D investment is likely to convert into orders and market share [7] Financial Forecasts - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 1,245 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.04% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 170 million yuan in 2025 to a profit of 138.36 million yuan in 2027 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.04 yuan in 2025, turning positive at 0.08 yuan in 2026 and 0.34 yuan in 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic AI industry chain, particularly the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), is experiencing market adjustments, with significant fluctuations in key stocks, reflecting both market sentiment and individual stock performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 26, the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) saw a decline of 1.96%, with major components like Chipone Technology dropping over 8% and Cambricon Technologies falling more than 3% [1]. - The ETF attracted 45.62 million yuan in a single day on August 25, accumulating 150 million yuan over the past 60 days, indicating strong capital inflow into domestic AI alternatives [1]. Group 2: Stock Adjustments - The adjustment in the ETF is attributed to the decline of major weighted stocks, particularly Cambricon Technologies and Chipone Technology, which faced significant sell-offs [3]. - The decline in Chipone Technology is linked to a large discounted share sale by its shareholders, although this is not indicative of the company's business deterioration [3]. Group 3: Domestic Chip Development - The development of domestic computing chips is characterized by two main technical routes: one focusing on GPGPU compatibility with NVIDIA's CUDA, and the other aiming to establish an independent ecosystem outside of NVIDIA's influence [4][5]. - The domestic computing market share is expected to grow significantly, driven by product advancements and the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufacturers [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the urgency for domestic computing chip replacement will continue to rise, with expectations of a doubling market capacity by 2025 due to rapid growth in domestic demand [5]. - The AI chip market is anticipated to expand significantly, with local brands like Cambricon expected to capture a 40% market share by 2025, driven by increased demand for inference and training computing power [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic AI industry chain, particularly the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), is experiencing a market correction, with significant fluctuations in component stocks, reflecting both market dynamics and investor sentiment towards AI domestic alternatives [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 26, the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) saw a decline of 1.96%, with major component stocks like Chipone Technology dropping over 8% and Cambricon Technologies falling more than 3% [1]. - Despite the market downturn, the ETF attracted significant capital inflow, with 45.62 million yuan on August 25 and a total of 150 million yuan over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest in AI domestic alternatives [1][3]. Group 2: Stock Dynamics - The decline in the ETF is attributed to the performance of major weighted stocks, particularly Cambricon Technologies and Chipone Technology, which faced sell-offs due to shareholder actions rather than fundamental business deterioration [3]. - Analysts emphasize that the reduction in shareholding does not equate to a decline in business fundamentals, as Chipone Technology maintains competitive strength in the AI chip sector [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The development of domestic computing chips is characterized by two main technological routes: one focusing on GPGPU compatibility with NVIDIA's CUDA, and the other aiming to establish an independent ecosystem outside of NVIDIA's influence [3]. - The growth of the domestic computing market share is driven by product advancements and the narrowing gap with NVIDIA, alongside improvements in the domestic computing ecosystem [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - First Shanghai Securities projects that the market size for NVIDIA's graphics cards in China will exceed 10 billion USD by 2024, capturing 70-80% of the market share, while domestic computing demand is expected to double by 2025 [4]. - Donghai Securities anticipates that the demand for AI chips will surge, with local brands like Cambricon expected to capture 40% of the market share by 2025 due to increased R&D and supportive industry policies [4]. - The emphasis on self-sufficiency in AI technology is crucial, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic AI industry development [4].