WeightWatchers sees its support groups as a plus in an era of GLP-1 secrecy and 15-minute doctor visits https://t.co/rX8xHkUotl ...

Welcome back. Shares of Nova Nordis jumping this morning. You can see up almost 5% on a number of headlines that surround its weight loss and diabetes drugs.They're often the same drug. Angelica Peoples uh just got off the phone with uh Nova Nordisk executives and has some more details for us. Angelica, hey David.Well, yeah, that's a busy morning for Novo. Let's start with the first. The FDA is approving Novo's weight loss drug for a liver condition and this is the latest condition that the GLP-1 is approve ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pagoda Biopharma-B (02565) has surged over 15%, reaching a new high of 37 HKD, driven by the approval of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide for a new indication, which has heightened interest in the GLP-1 sector [1] Company Summary - Pagoda Biopharma is a biotechnology company focused on the independent research and development of innovative therapies for chronic diseases, with six drugs in the pipeline, four of which are related to GLP-1 drugs targeting obesity, overweight, and diabetes [1] - The most promising product for commercialization is PB-119, a GLP-1 receptor agonist aimed at weight loss [1] Industry Summary - China is the second-largest pharmaceutical market globally and has the largest population of diabetes (projected to reach 164 million by 2030) and overweight individuals (estimated to be between 200 million to 250 million by 2030), making it a strategic battleground for global pharmaceutical giants and local companies [1] - With the continuous release of market potential, Pagoda Biopharma is expected to reshape the domestic T2DM treatment market landscape through its differentiated innovation capabilities and core product, Vepaglutide [1]

Joining us now to discuss the new developments is Dr. . Angela Fitch. She is a primary care clinician and the past president of the Obesity Medicine Association.Dr. . Fitch, welcome. >> Thank you for having me.>> So, we've been seeing GLP1s everywhere, Dr. . Fitch, but injectables. Now, we have the potential of this pill hitting the market with this drug trial with Eli Liy.What is it and how is it affecting folks. >> So, the other GLP ones we have, they're very hard to get into the system orally. That's why ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the promising opportunities in the domestic oral weight-loss drug market, particularly recommending companies such as Borui Pharmaceutical and Gilead Sciences as key players [1][2] - The GLP-1 drug market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $150 billion by 2030, driven by increasing demand and new product approvals [6][12] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of innovative drugs, particularly GLP-1 and PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, and suggests a focus on companies like Borui Pharmaceutical, Gilead Sciences, and others for investment [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 21.3%, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has surged by 87.2% [6][11] - Recent stock performance indicates a mixed trend, with notable gains in companies like Nanmo Biotechnology (+42%) and Haichen Pharmaceutical (+41%), while others like Nanxin Pharmaceutical (-19%) and Qizheng Tibetan Medicine (-16%) faced declines [11] Sub-industry Recommendations - The report ranks preferred sub-industries as follows: Innovative Drugs > Research Services > CXO > Traditional Chinese Medicine > Medical Devices > Pharmacies [2][12] - Specific stock recommendations include: - From the GLP-1 perspective: Borui Pharmaceutical, Gilead Sciences, and others [2][12] - From the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody perspective: Kangfang Biotech, Shenzhou Cell, and others [2][12] - From a low valuation perspective: Zoli Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, and others [2][12] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the GLP-1 drug market is significantly underestimated, with companies like Borui Pharmaceutical and Gilead Sciences expected to emerge as major players with potential market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions [6][12] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the rapid growth of drugs like Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which have seen substantial sales increases [17][22] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk reported a revenue of approximately $22.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by strong sales of its GLP-1 products [17][22] - Eli Lilly's revenue for the same period reached $28.3 billion, marking a 41% increase, with Mounjaro and Zepbound leading the sales growth [22][23]

Market Overview - Novo Nordisk, formerly a leader in the weight loss drug market, experienced a significant single-day stock price drop of 30% [1] - The weight loss drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Eli Lilly emerging as a strong competitor and compounded pharmacies initiating price wars [1] - The core technology behind weight loss drugs involves GLP-1, a gut hormone initially used for diabetes treatment [1] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have a century-long rivalry, competing on product effectiveness and commercialization strategies [1] - The era of a duopoly in the weight loss drug market is over, with increasing competition from other players [1] Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk lowered its full-year guidance, leading to a market capitalization decline [1] - Product development fell short of expectations, and the company faced increasing market competition [1] - Novo Nordisk misjudged demand and misallocated production capacity, creating opportunities for competitors [1] Leadership & Strategy - Novo Nordisk changed its CEO, but the new CEO lacks experience in the highly competitive US market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has received FDA approval for its innovative drug HDM1002, which is aimed at weight management for overweight or obese individuals, showcasing its potential in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Development and Approvals - HDM1002 is a self-developed small molecule drug with global intellectual property rights, designed to activate GLP-1 receptors effectively, leading to improved glucose tolerance, weight loss, and good safety profiles [2][3]. - The clinical trial application for HDM1002 for weight management was approved by both the NMPA and FDA, indicating strong regulatory support for its therapeutic use [1][2]. - The drug has entered Phase III clinical trials in China for both weight management and Type 2 diabetes indications, with over 800 participants in earlier phases showing significant efficacy in weight reduction and blood sugar control [3]. Group 2: Market and Industry Context - The approval of HDM1002 positions the company favorably within the growing GLP-1 market, which is increasingly recognized for its role in obesity and diabetes management [1][2]. - The establishment of a professional network, "GLP-1 Club," aims to facilitate discussions and knowledge sharing among experts in the GLP-1 industry, enhancing collaboration and innovation [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Jim Gaffigan has successfully lost weight using the drug Mounjaro, which is a brand name for tirzepatide, a medication initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment that also aids in weight loss [4][6]. Group 1: Drug Information - Tirzepatide is a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist that activates both GLP-1 and GIP hormones to help regulate blood sugar levels [4]. - The FDA approved tirzepatide in May 2022 for improving blood sugar control in type 2 diabetes patients, and in November 2023, it was approved for weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight [4]. - In the SURMOUNT-5 clinical trial, participants treated with tirzepatide lost an average of 50.3 pounds (approximately 22.8 kg), with an average weight reduction of 20.2% [4]. Group 2: Personal Experience - Gaffigan initially had low expectations about the drug's effectiveness due to previous negative experiences shared by others [6]. - He struggled with weight gain for most of his adult life and faced challenges such as a slowing metabolism and knee pain [6]. - After consulting with his doctor, he decided to try the medication, which led to significant weight loss and improved health [6][8]. Group 3: Lifestyle Changes - Gaffigan maintains his health by walking in New York City and tracking his steps with an Apple Watch, despite not exercising extensively [8]. - His weight loss has positively impacted his family life, as his wife appreciates his improved health [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw an overall increase of 1.60% in the week from June 23 to June 27, ranking 24th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is 27.67 times, which is at a historically low level, with a valuation premium of 124% compared to the CSI 300 [3][13][23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors during this period were medical services (2.92%), medical devices (2.10%), and pharmaceutical commerce (2.08%) [3][13]. - A significant event in the industry was the approval of the dual-target weight loss drug, Ma Shidu, by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) on June 27, 2025. This drug is aimed at long-term weight control for adults with obesity or overweight conditions and is the first of its kind globally [4][35][37]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increased by 1.60% in the week of June 23-27, 2025, ranking 24th among 31 industries and lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points. The PE valuation for the sector is currently 27.67 times, with a 124% premium over the CSI 300 [3][13][23]. Industry News - The approval of Ma Shidu (Mastride Injection) by the NMPA is a key highlight, showing significant weight loss and metabolic benefits based on clinical trial results. The drug demonstrated a mean percentage change in body weight of -12.0% and -14.8% for the 4mg and 6mg doses, respectively, compared to a placebo [4][36][37]. - Other notable developments include ongoing clinical trials and advancements in GLP-1 class weight loss drugs, with several companies reporting promising results at the American Diabetes Association conference [34][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the GLP-1 class weight loss drugs and related commercial opportunities, highlighting the potential for long-acting/oral formulations and multi-target molecules. It recommends quality stocks in medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services [6][38][39]. - Recommended stocks include Beida Pharmaceutical, Teabo Bio, Laobaixing Pharmacy, Huaxia Eye Hospital, and Nuotai Bio, with additional stocks to watch such as Kelun Pharmaceutical, Rongchang Bio, and Lijun Group [6][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the healthcare sector, specifically the developments in diabetes treatment and related biopharmaceuticals in China, particularly in relation to the upcoming ADA'25 conference. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Presence at ADA'25**: Chinese biotech companies are expected to present significant data at ADA'25, including: - Ascletis's ASC30 (oral GLP-1) in Phase 1, showing mild to moderate adverse events (AEs) with no serious adverse events (SAEs) reported [1][2] - Laekna's LAE102 (muscle-preserving drug) in Phase 1, demonstrating dose-dependent increases in serum concentration and no serious AEs [2][3] - Innovent's Mazdutide (GLP-1/GCG) in Phase 3, showing superior results compared to placebo in HbA1c reduction and weight loss [2][3] 2. **Anticipated Outcomes**: There are low expectations for major surprises from Chinese players at ADA'25, as many oral GLP-1 and amylin candidates are still in early stages of development [4]. 3. **Key Data Points**: - **Ascletis's ASC30**: 70.3% of AEs were mild, and 29.7% were moderate, with pharmacokinetic analysis supporting once-daily oral dosing [2]. - **Laekna's LAE102**: No serious AEs or treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) leading to study discontinuation were reported, with increased activin A levels maintained over a 28-day follow-up [2]. - **Innovent's Mazdutide**: At week 24, the mean HbA1c change from baseline was -1.43% for MAZ 4 mg and -2.02% for MAZ 6 mg, with significant proportions of patients achieving HbA1c <7.0% and weight reduction ≥5% [2]. Additional Important Content 1. **Company Valuations and Risks**: - **Eli Lilly & Co**: Price target supported by DCF valuation, with risks including commercial, regulatory, and clinical factors [7]. - **Hengrui**: Price target of Rmb80.0 based on DCF methodology, with risks related to negotiations and market competition [8]. - **Innovent Biologics Inc**: Price target of HK$40.0 derived from DCF methodology, with various operational and regulatory risks [9]. 2. **Development Phases of Key Products**: A detailed table outlines the development phases of various products presented by Chinese companies at ADA'25, including their indications and target mechanisms [6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for intensified market competition as more players enter the diabetes treatment space [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the healthcare sector, particularly in diabetes treatment in China.