Welcome back. The next battle shaping up between Eli Lily and Novo Nordisk when it comes to GLP1s, the pills. Angelica Peoples with the story. Angelica.Hey Sarah. Well, that's right. Pills are the next frontier and it's changed a little bit over the last few months.So, Lily was getting all the attention here because its pill is easier to make and it's more convenient to take. But investors are now giving Novo a closer look after Lily's pill produced less weight loss than hoped in a recent trial. So, which p ...

Company Strategy - WeightWatchers views its support groups as a competitive advantage [1] - The company highlights the value of its support groups in an environment of GLP-1 drug secrecy and limited doctor-patient interaction [1]

Regulatory Approval & Market Expansion - FDA approves Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy for MASH (Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), a liver condition affecting an estimated 5% of the US population [2][3] - MASH indication could add almost $2 billion in peak sales for Novo Nordisk, addressing a market with limited existing treatment options [4] - Wegovy treats the underlying metabolic drivers of MASH, demonstrating benefits beyond weight loss [4] Pricing & Accessibility - Novo Nordisk will offer Ozempic, its diabetes drug, for $4.99 per month for out-of-pocket payers [5] - This pricing strategy expands the Novocare direct-to-consumer platform, which already sells Wegovy [5] - The $4.99 price point aims to compete with compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs [9] Drug Information - Ozempic and Wegovy share the same active ingredient, with Wegovy indicated for weight loss and Ozempic for diabetes [6] - While dosages may vary, the active ingredient and side effects are the same for both drugs [7][8] - Approximately 98% of people with diabetes have insurance coverage for Ozempic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pagoda Biopharma-B (02565) has surged over 15%, reaching a new high of 37 HKD, driven by the approval of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide for a new indication, which has heightened interest in the GLP-1 sector [1] Company Summary - Pagoda Biopharma is a biotechnology company focused on the independent research and development of innovative therapies for chronic diseases, with six drugs in the pipeline, four of which are related to GLP-1 drugs targeting obesity, overweight, and diabetes [1] - The most promising product for commercialization is PB-119, a GLP-1 receptor agonist aimed at weight loss [1] Industry Summary - China is the second-largest pharmaceutical market globally and has the largest population of diabetes (projected to reach 164 million by 2030) and overweight individuals (estimated to be between 200 million to 250 million by 2030), making it a strategic battleground for global pharmaceutical giants and local companies [1] - With the continuous release of market potential, Pagoda Biopharma is expected to reshape the domestic T2DM treatment market landscape through its differentiated innovation capabilities and core product, Vepaglutide [1]

New Drug Development - Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug trial shows potential for a pill form of GLP-1 medication, offering an alternative to injectables [1] - The oral GLP-1 drug is a small molecule absorbed in the stomach, allowing for daily intake instead of weekly injections [3] - Clinical trials indicate that approximately 40% of patients at the highest dose experienced weight loss greater than 15% [5] - The most significant side effect observed with the pill is nausea, similar to other GLP-1 medications [4] - The industry hopes the pill's easier manufacturing and lack of refrigeration needs will lead to significantly lower costs [12] - The industry anticipates potential FDA fast-track approval, possibly leading to market availability sometime next year [15][16] Obesity and GLP-1 - The medical community is shifting away from viewing obesity as a moral failing towards recognizing it as a chronic disease requiring long-term treatment [7][8][9] - GLP-1 medications can help patients overcome the body's natural resistance to weight loss by influencing hormones and reducing the urge to overeat [10][11] - GLP-1 activation may have anti-inflammatory benefits and could potentially improve conditions like autoimmune diseases, psoriasis, and potentially reduce the risk of dementia [13][14] - Over 50% of Americans are considered in the obese range, highlighting the potential impact of accessible treatments on cardiovascular disease and related health issues [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the promising opportunities in the domestic oral weight-loss drug market, particularly recommending companies such as Borui Pharmaceutical and Gilead Sciences as key players [1][2] - The GLP-1 drug market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $150 billion by 2030, driven by increasing demand and new product approvals [6][12] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of innovative drugs, particularly GLP-1 and PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, and suggests a focus on companies like Borui Pharmaceutical, Gilead Sciences, and others for investment [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 21.3%, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has surged by 87.2% [6][11] - Recent stock performance indicates a mixed trend, with notable gains in companies like Nanmo Biotechnology (+42%) and Haichen Pharmaceutical (+41%), while others like Nanxin Pharmaceutical (-19%) and Qizheng Tibetan Medicine (-16%) faced declines [11] Sub-industry Recommendations - The report ranks preferred sub-industries as follows: Innovative Drugs > Research Services > CXO > Traditional Chinese Medicine > Medical Devices > Pharmacies [2][12] - Specific stock recommendations include: - From the GLP-1 perspective: Borui Pharmaceutical, Gilead Sciences, and others [2][12] - From the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody perspective: Kangfang Biotech, Shenzhou Cell, and others [2][12] - From a low valuation perspective: Zoli Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, and others [2][12] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the GLP-1 drug market is significantly underestimated, with companies like Borui Pharmaceutical and Gilead Sciences expected to emerge as major players with potential market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions [6][12] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the rapid growth of drugs like Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which have seen substantial sales increases [17][22] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk reported a revenue of approximately $22.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by strong sales of its GLP-1 products [17][22] - Eli Lilly's revenue for the same period reached $28.3 billion, marking a 41% increase, with Mounjaro and Zepbound leading the sales growth [22][23]

Market Overview - Novo Nordisk, formerly a leader in the weight loss drug market, experienced a significant single-day stock price drop of 30% [1] - The weight loss drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Eli Lilly emerging as a strong competitor and compounded pharmacies initiating price wars [1] - The core technology behind weight loss drugs involves GLP-1, a gut hormone initially used for diabetes treatment [1] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have a century-long rivalry, competing on product effectiveness and commercialization strategies [1] - The era of a duopoly in the weight loss drug market is over, with increasing competition from other players [1] Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk lowered its full-year guidance, leading to a market capitalization decline [1] - Product development fell short of expectations, and the company faced increasing market competition [1] - Novo Nordisk misjudged demand and misallocated production capacity, creating opportunities for competitors [1] Leadership & Strategy - Novo Nordisk changed its CEO, but the new CEO lacks experience in the highly competitive US market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has received FDA approval for its innovative drug HDM1002, which is aimed at weight management for overweight or obese individuals, showcasing its potential in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Development and Approvals - HDM1002 is a self-developed small molecule drug with global intellectual property rights, designed to activate GLP-1 receptors effectively, leading to improved glucose tolerance, weight loss, and good safety profiles [2][3]. - The clinical trial application for HDM1002 for weight management was approved by both the NMPA and FDA, indicating strong regulatory support for its therapeutic use [1][2]. - The drug has entered Phase III clinical trials in China for both weight management and Type 2 diabetes indications, with over 800 participants in earlier phases showing significant efficacy in weight reduction and blood sugar control [3]. Group 2: Market and Industry Context - The approval of HDM1002 positions the company favorably within the growing GLP-1 market, which is increasingly recognized for its role in obesity and diabetes management [1][2]. - The establishment of a professional network, "GLP-1 Club," aims to facilitate discussions and knowledge sharing among experts in the GLP-1 industry, enhancing collaboration and innovation [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Jim Gaffigan has successfully lost weight using the drug Mounjaro, which is a brand name for tirzepatide, a medication initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment that also aids in weight loss [4][6]. Group 1: Drug Information - Tirzepatide is a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist that activates both GLP-1 and GIP hormones to help regulate blood sugar levels [4]. - The FDA approved tirzepatide in May 2022 for improving blood sugar control in type 2 diabetes patients, and in November 2023, it was approved for weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight [4]. - In the SURMOUNT-5 clinical trial, participants treated with tirzepatide lost an average of 50.3 pounds (approximately 22.8 kg), with an average weight reduction of 20.2% [4]. Group 2: Personal Experience - Gaffigan initially had low expectations about the drug's effectiveness due to previous negative experiences shared by others [6]. - He struggled with weight gain for most of his adult life and faced challenges such as a slowing metabolism and knee pain [6]. - After consulting with his doctor, he decided to try the medication, which led to significant weight loss and improved health [6][8]. Group 3: Lifestyle Changes - Gaffigan maintains his health by walking in New York City and tracking his steps with an Apple Watch, despite not exercising extensively [8]. - His weight loss has positively impacted his family life, as his wife appreciates his improved health [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw an overall increase of 1.60% in the week from June 23 to June 27, ranking 24th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is 27.67 times, which is at a historically low level, with a valuation premium of 124% compared to the CSI 300 [3][13][23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors during this period were medical services (2.92%), medical devices (2.10%), and pharmaceutical commerce (2.08%) [3][13]. - A significant event in the industry was the approval of the dual-target weight loss drug, Ma Shidu, by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) on June 27, 2025. This drug is aimed at long-term weight control for adults with obesity or overweight conditions and is the first of its kind globally [4][35][37]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increased by 1.60% in the week of June 23-27, 2025, ranking 24th among 31 industries and lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points. The PE valuation for the sector is currently 27.67 times, with a 124% premium over the CSI 300 [3][13][23]. Industry News - The approval of Ma Shidu (Mastride Injection) by the NMPA is a key highlight, showing significant weight loss and metabolic benefits based on clinical trial results. The drug demonstrated a mean percentage change in body weight of -12.0% and -14.8% for the 4mg and 6mg doses, respectively, compared to a placebo [4][36][37]. - Other notable developments include ongoing clinical trials and advancements in GLP-1 class weight loss drugs, with several companies reporting promising results at the American Diabetes Association conference [34][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the GLP-1 class weight loss drugs and related commercial opportunities, highlighting the potential for long-acting/oral formulations and multi-target molecules. It recommends quality stocks in medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services [6][38][39]. - Recommended stocks include Beida Pharmaceutical, Teabo Bio, Laobaixing Pharmacy, Huaxia Eye Hospital, and Nuotai Bio, with additional stocks to watch such as Kelun Pharmaceutical, Rongchang Bio, and Lijun Group [6][39].