·德国商业银行：泰国央行或按兵不动，通胀持续低迷为年中降息铺路 ·道明证券：英镑涨势缺乏基本面支撑，美元反弹与政治风险或终结其强势行情 ·凯投宏观：印度央行的货币宽松周期可能已经结束 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行分析指出，泰国央行预计将在本月货币政策会议上维持利率不变，以评估大选后对经济 与市场的影响。泰国消费者物价指数已连续10个月下滑，且2026年全年预计将低于央行1%-3%的目标区 间，为年内降息打开空间。当前通胀持续低迷叠加政治不确定性，为泰国央行在今年晚些时候转向宽松 货币政策创造了条件。 ·摩根大通在印尼2025年Q4 GDP超预期后，将2026年经济增长预测从4.9%上调至5.2%，但警告年初增长 动能或因财政退坡与汽车激励政策退潮而放缓。若印尼政府严格执行3%财政赤字上限，2026年财政支 持力度可能减弱，进一步拖累年初经济表现。尽管印尼经济年末表现强劲，摩根大通仍预计印尼央行将 在2026年第二季度实施两次降息（每次25个基点），前提是卢比汇率保持基本稳定。 ·Kenanga经济学家指出，受益于强劲的国内经济数据及对2025年四季度GDP终值的乐观预期，在美元获 得支撑、美联储推迟降息的背景 ...

Over in the US, tech stocks fell for the third day in a row as investors remain worried about disruption to the artificial intelligence (AI) market.Both moves by the central banks led stocks on the Continent to drop, with the FTSE 100 declining 0.9pc at the close.The European Central Bank also announced it was holding interest rates at 2pc.The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75pc after the recent rise in inflation but signalled more reductions in borrowing costs were coming.The sell-off spread to t ...

The dollar index (DXY00) rose to a 1.5-week high on Thursday and finished up by +0.23%.  Thursday's stock selloff boosted liquidity demand for the dollar.  Also, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lisa Cook supported the dollar when she said she now sees "risks as tilted toward higher inflation." Gains in the dollar were limited on Thursday amid signs of weakness in the US labor market.  Challenger's January job cuts posted their biggest decline for a January since 2009, weekly jobless claims rose more t ...

欧元区消费端持续走弱 欧元区去年12月零售销售环比下降0.5%，不仅延续了此前的低迷走势，跌幅本身也明显超出市场的保守预期。在高利率和收入预期偏弱的背景下，居民消 费意愿仍然处在受压状态，年末传统旺季并未带来明显提振。 从结构来看，必需品与可选消费之间的分化愈发清晰。食品类销售勉强录得小幅增长，但非食品类商品出现明显回落，反映出消费者对大额和非必要支出的 谨慎态度仍在延续。燃油销售停滞，对整体零售走势几乎没有提供支撑。成员国之间的表现差异同样显著，南北与核心边缘国家之间的消费分化，进一步削 弱了区域内的整体修复力度。FXTRADING分析认为，当前欧元区零售数据所反映的并非短期波动，而是高利率环境下消费端修复缓慢的现实，这将继续 制约经济回暖的节奏。 欧洲央行维持利率不变 欧洲央行维持存款利率在2.00%不变，整体表态延续了此前的稳健基调。政策声明强调对中期通胀回归目标的信心，并重申将依据数据逐次会议调整决策路 径。这种表述传递出的核心信息是，当前并不存在迫切行动的必要。 英国央行按兵不动 英国央行将基准利率维持在3.75%，这一结果本身并未偏离市场预期，但投票结构却释放出更复杂的信号。显示5比4的结果，政策 ...

金融市场瞬息万变，投资与经济政策深刻影响全球。我们为您带来昨夜今晨的财经新闻，涵盖股市动 态、经济数据、企业财务和政策更新，帮助您全面把握金融世界。 美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为90.1% 根据CME美联储观察工具数据，市场预期美联储在3月会议上维持利率不变的概率高达90.1%，而降息 25个基点的概率仅为9.9%。展望未来，到4月维持利率不变的概率为75.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.2%。数据表明市场普遍认为美联储短期内将保持利率稳定，降息预期在年中有所增强。 金价自5000美元回落 催化剂缺位下交易员获利了结 马斯克团队秘密调研中国企业，拉爆太空光伏概念股 马斯克团队近期秘密调研了TCL中环、晶科能源等多家中国光伏龙头企业，市场传闻其已与部分头部设 备商签订合同。此举直接引爆A股光伏及太空光伏概念板块，多只个股涨停。马斯克合并SpaceX与 xAI，旨在推动太空光伏与太空算力发展，计划通过发射百万颗太阳能卫星构建"轨道数据中心"，以利 用太空近乎无限的太阳能资源，为AI发展提供低成本、高规模的算力支持。中国完整的光伏产业链成 为其实现这一愿景的关键依托。 金价自每盎司5000美元关口回落， ...

Citadel Securities经济学家Nohshad Shah在最新专栏文章中表示，美联储可能在可预见的未来保持利率不 变，随着沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，这一前景变得更加明确。在美国经济展现韧性、通胀风险重新 抬头的背景下，过去一年大幅下挫的美元可能迎来喘息时机。 Nohshad Shah指出，在宽松的金融条件、放松的货币政策以及即将到来的大规模财政刺激(OBBA法案) 等几乎前所未有的政策组合下，美国今年的名义GDP可能处于5-6%区间。达拉斯联储将四季度GDP增 速追踪在2.49%，纽约联储的实时预测为2.74%，这还是在政府长时间关门的情况下实现的。 在上周的会议上，美联储承认了更强劲的经济增长现实，并表示风险平衡已从就业目标转移。FOMC声 明将经济活动描述从12月的"温和"上调至"稳健"扩张，失业率显示出"稳定迹象"。主席鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上传递的信号表明，委员会普遍认为政策利率已不再处于限制性区域，在去年实施75个基点的"保 险性降息"后，利率已接近大多数机构对中性利率的估计值(约3.25%)。 美元在过去一年已下跌约11%，跌幅可观。但Shah认为，随着美联储可能在未来数月保持观望、美 ...

Quick Read Schwab Small Cap ETF (SCHA) charges just 0.04% annually. SCHA returned 5.5% year-to-date through late January. Small-cap performance in SCHA hinges on borrowing costs rather than stock selection. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.24%. SCHA holds 500+ positions including Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Rocket Companies (RKT). Sector allocation drives performance over individual stocks. Investors rethink 'hands off' investing and decide to start making real money The Schwab U.S. Small-Ca ...

February 2, 2026 12:55 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Signals and Shocks – Warsh's Nomination and Japan Macro Vol February 2, 2026 Serena Tang – Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy | Strategist Michael Gapen – Chief US Economist Matthew Hornbach – Global Head of Macro Strategy | Strategist Shaun Zhou – US Interest Rate Strategist | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC James Lord – Global Head of FX/EM Strategy | Strategist MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Koich ...

Earnings season is kicking off in a big way. The S&P 500 ($SPX) recently cleared the 7,000 mark on AI-driven optimism and rate-cut hopes, and that momentum has traders hunting for the next breakout. However, the pullback has begun as President Trump's choice for Federal Reserve chair has injected fresh market volatility, refocusing investors on interest-rate-sensitive names and macro risks. Meanwhile, smaller social media plays, like Trump Media (DJT) and Joyy (JOYY), have seen surging volume as meme-sty ...

President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve is already rippling through markets. 1. Inflation Is ‘A Choice,’ Not a Trade-OffWarsh rejects one of the Fed's most entrenched ideas: that low unemployment mechanically leads to inflation.On Monday, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni wrote that Warsh views inflation as "a byproduct of unsound policy decisions," not the inevitable result of economic strength. Warsh explicitly rejects the Phillips Curve fram ...