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「经济发展」余永定:对过去20多年宏观调控政策的几点思考
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 14:47
Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]
权威专家:M2/GDP 5年时间提升了35个百分点
news flash· 2025-05-14 09:15
5月14日,央行发布最新金融数据,4月末,广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元,同比增长8%。央行表 示,观察货币政策的效果要结合实体经济实际运行状况综合研判。市场权威专家表示,将金融数据与 GDP等实体经济指标进行对比分析,能进一步显现货币政策的效果,更全面地衡量央行货币政策的支持 力度。比如,M2/GDP,已经从2019年末的197%上升到2024年末的232%,5年时间提升了35个百分点。 该专家表示,将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标,有其内在合理性,随着金融深化和经济结构转 型,市场研究表明货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱,主要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯 住总量指标的过程。(第一财经) ...