Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Core Insights - The central bank reported that as of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] - Experts suggest that analyzing financial data in conjunction with GDP and other economic indicators can provide a clearer picture of the effectiveness of monetary policy [1] - The M2 to GDP ratio has increased from 197% at the end of 2019 to 232% by the end of 2024, marking a 35 percentage point rise over five years [1] - The use of M2 growth rate as an observational indicator for monetary policy is deemed reasonable, as the correlation between money supply and economic growth is weakening [1] Financial Data Analysis - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.17 trillion yuan as of April, with an 8% increase year-on-year [1] - The M2 to GDP ratio has risen significantly, indicating a growing divergence between monetary supply and economic output [1] - The trend of diminishing correlation between total money supply and economic growth is noted, aligning with patterns observed in major developed economies [1]