PTA累库预期
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11-12月份存累库预期 短期PTA内在向上驱动有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-14 06:03
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures exhibiting a strong upward trend, reflecting supply adjustments and demand dynamics in the polyester sector [1] Supply Side - Southwest Futures reports that Yintou's 1 million tons facility is scheduled for maintenance, while Zhongtai has reduced its output to 90%, leading to a PTA operating rate adjustment to 75.7% by Thursday [1] - Honggang Petrochemical plans maintenance from November 17 to November 25, and Yisheng (Ningbo) is currently operating at 90% capacity with maintenance scheduled for later in the month [1] Demand Side - Wukuang Futures indicates that the inventory and profit pressure for polyester fibers are relatively low, suggesting that operating rates may remain high; however, due to inventory pressure and the off-season for downstream bottle-grade PET, further increases in polyester operating rates are unlikely [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, the current PTA factory inventory stands at 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week but a decrease of 0.29 days compared to the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 6.1 days, down 0.35 days week-on-week and down 2.25 days year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures notes that the low PTA processing fee may lead to increased maintenance efforts in the future, potentially alleviating supply-side pressures; downstream demand remains relatively strong with high operating rates in polyester and weaving, although order stability is still in question [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November and December, with limited upward driving forces in the short term due to low processing fees, suggesting a focus on expanding processing fee price differentials [1]