Core Viewpoint - The PTA futures market shows a slight decline in price, with a weekly drop of 0.66%, while production and capacity utilization rates have increased slightly, indicating mixed signals in the market dynamics [1][3]. Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main PTA futures contract closed at 5108 yuan/ton, with a weekly trading range from 5128 to 5210 yuan/ton, and a low of 5014 yuan/ton [1]. - The average processing margin for PTA in China was reported at 336.2 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.23% [1]. Production and Capacity - The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 74.2%, which is an increase of 0.35% from the previous week [1]. - Domestic PTA production reached 1.4312 million tons, showing an increase of 10,700 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures noted an enhanced expectation of inventory accumulation in Q1, with major polyester manufacturers planning to gradually reduce their operating rates, leading to limited self-driven demand for PTA [3]. - Guoxin Futures highlighted a decline in polyester operating expectations and significant compression of profit margins, indicating weakening downstream demand [3]. - The overall supply of PTA is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance units, with January anticipated to begin inventory accumulation, although the pressure remains lower than in previous years [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Weekly Report (January 5, 2026) [1][2] - Report Subject: PTA Futures - Analyst: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend, with the TA2605 contract closing at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The recent sharp rise in PX prices and the significant expansion of PXN have basically reflected the post - holiday expectations. In terms of supply, PX factories are more willing to increase production due to good profits, and PTA factories are selling spot PX at high prices, resulting in a more relaxed PX supply than expected. As the PTA processing fee recovers, the uncertainty of PTA plant maintenance in the first quarter increases. The downstream polyester industry experiences seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, strengthening the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Recently, some large polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, so PTA has limited self - driving force and mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve. It is advisable for short - term bulls to realize profits [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures: TA2605 closed at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. PX price increases and PXN expansion have reflected post - holiday expectations. PX supply is more relaxed than expected, and PTA has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in Q1. Some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and PTA follows raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, PTA processing fee is expected to improve, and short - term bulls should realize profits [3]. Attention Factors - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil price trends [4] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,110.00 | 5,220.00 | - 110.00 | - 2.11% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 143.11 | 141.84 | 1.27 | 0.90% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 86.83 | 84.36 | 2.47 | 2.93% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 59.55 | 60.70 | - 1.15 | - 1.89% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 363 | 360 | 3.00 | 0.83% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,977 | 5,038 | - 61.00 | - 1.21% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis - **PX Spot and Futures Market Review**: Includes charts of PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [7][9][13] - **PX Supply Analysis**: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][16][18] PTA - Related Analysis - **PTA Spot and Futures Market Review**: Presents a chart of PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [21] - **PTA Supply Analysis**: Involves PTA monthly output, operating rate, and social inventory [23][28] - **PTA Consumption Analysis**: Includes PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filaments and staple fibers, operating rates of polyester chips, filaments, and staple fibers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [29][31][34] - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: Shows a chart of PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [37][39]

Group 1 - The domestic PTA futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 4614.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.03% [1] - As of early December, domestic PTA operating load remains at 73.7%, with concerns over low processing profits, declining terminal demand, and inventory accumulation expectations affecting future operational stability [2] - Polyester production load is at 91.2%, with maintenance and repairs affecting some polyester filament and short fiber facilities, while new polyester capacity is set to increase to 89.84 million tons starting December 1, 2025 [2] Group 2 - Current PTA factory inventory stands at 3.92 days, an increase of 0.14 days from the previous week and 0.2 days higher than the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.5 days, up 0.7 days week-on-week but down 0.5 days year-on-year [2] - The market outlook indicates strong support for PTA at low valuations, but ongoing inventory accumulation expectations and unhealed processing fees are likely to dominate the market, with trends following PX prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures exhibiting a strong upward trend, reflecting supply adjustments and demand dynamics in the polyester sector [1] Supply Side - Southwest Futures reports that Yintou's 1 million tons facility is scheduled for maintenance, while Zhongtai has reduced its output to 90%, leading to a PTA operating rate adjustment to 75.7% by Thursday [1] - Honggang Petrochemical plans maintenance from November 17 to November 25, and Yisheng (Ningbo) is currently operating at 90% capacity with maintenance scheduled for later in the month [1] Demand Side - Wukuang Futures indicates that the inventory and profit pressure for polyester fibers are relatively low, suggesting that operating rates may remain high; however, due to inventory pressure and the off-season for downstream bottle-grade PET, further increases in polyester operating rates are unlikely [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, the current PTA factory inventory stands at 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week but a decrease of 0.29 days compared to the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 6.1 days, down 0.35 days week-on-week and down 2.25 days year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures notes that the low PTA processing fee may lead to increased maintenance efforts in the future, potentially alleviating supply-side pressures; downstream demand remains relatively strong with high operating rates in polyester and weaving, although order stability is still in question [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November and December, with limited upward driving forces in the short term due to low processing fees, suggesting a focus on expanding processing fee price differentials [1]