期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 周报 PTA期货：阶段性兑现利润为佳 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面强势上涨，TA2605收5110元/吨，跌170元/吨或3.22%。近期PX的大涨 及PXN的大幅走扩，基本已反应节后的预期。供应来看，效益刺激下PX工厂 提负荷意愿增加，加之PTA工厂 也在高位出售现货PX，PX供应整体较预期宽松；随着PTA加工费修复，1季度PTA装置检修不确定性增加，而 下游聚酯春节前后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度累库预期增强，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降负，PTA自身 驱动有限，跟随原料波动为主。 2、对于后市，PX基本已反应节后预期，近期PX供应整体较预期宽松，远端预期较好。TA方面，PTA1季 度累库预期增强，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降负，PTA自身驱动有限，中长期随着产能集中投放周期结 束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。短线多头兑现利润为佳。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3.织机开工率；4、PX调整需求；5、原油走势。 | PTA | 单位 | 最新一周 | ...

需求方面，西南期货指出，本周一套聚酯长丝和短纤装置停车检修，一套长丝长停装置升温重启中，尚 未正常出产品，聚酯负荷在91.2%。2025年12月1日起，国内大陆地区聚酯产能上修至8984万吨，新增 新疆宇欣、安徽佑顺各30万吨新装置。江浙终端开工基本维持，工厂原料备货下降。 库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，本周PTA工厂库存在3.92天，较上周+0.14天，较去年同期+0.2 天；聚酯工厂PTA原料库存在7.5天，较上周+0.7天，较去年同期-0.5天。 展望后市，新湖期货表示，PTA低估值下支撑较强，但目前累库预期仍在，加工费未见修复，跟随PX 走势为主。 11月12日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其PTA期货呈现震荡下行走势，主力合约报收于4614.00元/ 吨，小幅下跌1.03%。 供应方面，中金财富期货分析称，截至12月上旬，国内PTA开工负荷维持在73.7%，鉴于低加工利润、 终端需求下滑和累库存预期，后续PTA装置运行稳定性仍然堪忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures exhibiting a strong upward trend, reflecting supply adjustments and demand dynamics in the polyester sector [1] Supply Side - Southwest Futures reports that Yintou's 1 million tons facility is scheduled for maintenance, while Zhongtai has reduced its output to 90%, leading to a PTA operating rate adjustment to 75.7% by Thursday [1] - Honggang Petrochemical plans maintenance from November 17 to November 25, and Yisheng (Ningbo) is currently operating at 90% capacity with maintenance scheduled for later in the month [1] Demand Side - Wukuang Futures indicates that the inventory and profit pressure for polyester fibers are relatively low, suggesting that operating rates may remain high; however, due to inventory pressure and the off-season for downstream bottle-grade PET, further increases in polyester operating rates are unlikely [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, the current PTA factory inventory stands at 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week but a decrease of 0.29 days compared to the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 6.1 days, down 0.35 days week-on-week and down 2.25 days year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures notes that the low PTA processing fee may lead to increased maintenance efforts in the future, potentially alleviating supply-side pressures; downstream demand remains relatively strong with high operating rates in polyester and weaving, although order stability is still in question [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November and December, with limited upward driving forces in the short term due to low processing fees, suggesting a focus on expanding processing fee price differentials [1]