大家好我是大鱼 马斯克最新 亲口爆料 Cybercab 生产起步 会痛苦地缓慢 就像爬S曲线 的底部 几乎每样零件 都是全新 初期产量 会让人抓狂 不过一旦过坎 就会像火箭般 疯狂起飞 目标是每5秒 一辆Cybercab 直接碾压 传统车厂！ 这不是幻想 而是Tesla用 Model Y 证明过的铁律 现在Cybercab +Unboxed 制造法 要重演这场 逆转秀 大家不要错过 今天的精彩内容 OK let's go 特斯拉的股票 周二收盘是419.25% 全天下跌了 18.25%美元 跌幅是4.17% 成交量是 6235万股 第一部分 马斯克爆料 S曲线狠招！ Cybercab进入 生产倒数计时阶段 马斯克说 初始会超慢 像爬坡一样 但后面会像 火箭一样起飞！ S曲线听起来 像坐过山车 刺激吧？ 先说说这 S曲线是什么鬼 马斯克在X上 直白讲了 新产品的生产 一开始总是会很慢 因为零件和步骤 全都是新的 需要一步步的调教 就像你学开车 刚开始抓狂 逐渐的熟练 速度就上来了 Cybercab 和Optimus 几乎每样东西 都是全新设计 所以初期产量 都会痛苦地慢 不过一旦 过了那道坎 就会变得 疯狂地快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation and challenges in the capital market, highlighting the importance of professional investment research in optimizing asset allocation and the shift in China's public fund industry towards high-quality development [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The manager from Western Lide Fund, Dong Weiwei, stresses the importance of maintaining a rational and stable mindset in investment decisions, viewing emotional stability as a key source of profit in the A-share market [2][3] - Dong Weiwei's investment framework combines a decision-making system, risk control system, and mindset, which are interdependent and essential for achieving a balance between offensive and defensive strategies [5] - The investment strategy is driven by the "first principles" of asset management, focusing on providing reasonable long-term returns and a good process experience for clients [6] Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Factors - The current market is seen as a favorable investment period for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with key factors that previously suppressed the equity market entering a phase of adjustment [17][18] - Economic recovery, changes in the real estate sector, and a diversified export structure are contributing to a more stable economic environment, which supports the investment outlook [18] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Themes - Dong Weiwei identifies three main sectors for investment: technology, new energy, and cyclical industries, emphasizing the importance of understanding the cyclical position of these industries [19][20] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is viewed as a long-term growth area, while new energy is seen as benefiting from supply-demand structural changes [19] - The focus on company quality is paramount, with a preference for firms that demonstrate clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential [21][22] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - Morgan Stanley's Wu Huiwen predicts that the bond market in 2026 will experience dual-directional volatility, with a focus on capturing short-term opportunities rather than long-term trends [10][13] - The investment strategy involves a combination of stable foundational investments and active trading to adapt to market conditions, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to low-risk, high-yield assets [14]

Core Viewpoint - The key to a fund manager's growth is the comprehensive experience of bull, bear, and volatile markets, emphasizing that investment is not only about pursuing sharp returns but also about controlling drawdowns, with "fixed income plus" being an important tool for balancing offense and defense [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Experience - The fund manager's career began in May 2015 during a bull market, where a product's net value surged by 30% in one month, followed by a significant drop, marking the first lesson in risk management [2] - From 2016 to 2017, the manager focused on sectors like home appliances and supply-side reforms, achieving good relative rankings but relying more on experiential judgment rather than a systematic framework [2] - A turning point occurred in 2018 during a prolonged bear market, leading to the realization that a purely bottom-up stock selection approach is vulnerable to systemic risks, prompting the development of a combined top-down and bottom-up investment decision-making system [2] Group 2: Investment Framework - The manager's investment framework consists of three components: an investment decision system, a risk control system, and mindset, all of which are interdependent [3] - The investment decision system aims to identify quality assets with good fundamentals and reasonable valuations through a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches [3] - The risk control system focuses on managing drawdowns with a combination of active and passive measures to smooth the net value curve, while the mindset component emphasizes maintaining rationality during market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Asset Management Principles - The core of the investment methodology is based on the "first principles" of asset management, which prioritize customer needs by providing reasonable long-term returns and a good process experience, particularly focusing on drawdown control [4] - The investment goal is to offer clients a packaged investment solution that does not require them to time the market or choose styles [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Stock Selection - The manager maintains a relatively optimistic outlook for the market in 2026, drawing parallels to the entrepreneurial board market from 2013 to 2015, but notes that the current technological wave has a higher "gold content" [6] - The investment strategy will focus on industries at the inflection point of rapid penetration on the "S-curve," particularly in AI and frontier technology sectors, as well as consumer sectors that align with China's substantial domestic demand potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - The key to a fund manager's growth is the comprehensive experience of bull, bear, and volatile markets, emphasizing that investment is not only about pursuing sharp returns but also about controlling drawdowns, with "fixed income +" being an important tool for balancing offense and defense [1] Group 1: Investment Experience and Evolution - The fund manager's career began in May 2015 during a bull market, where a product's net value surged by 30% in one month, followed by a significant drop, marking the first lesson in risk management [2] - From 2016 to 2017, the manager focused on sectors like home appliances and supply-side reforms, achieving good relative rankings but relying more on experiential judgment rather than a systematic framework [2] - A turning point occurred in 2018 during a prolonged bear market, leading to the realization that a purely bottom-up stock selection approach is vulnerable to systemic risks, prompting the development of a combined top-down and bottom-up investment decision system [2] Group 2: Investment Framework - The manager's investment framework consists of three components: an "investment decision system," a "risk control system," and "mindset," which are interdependent [3] - The investment decision system focuses on identifying quality assets with good fundamentals and reasonable valuations through a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches [3] - The risk control system aims to manage drawdowns through a combination of active and passive measures, striving for a smooth net value curve, while the mindset component emphasizes maintaining rationality during market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Asset Management Principles - The core of the investment methodology is based on the "first principles" of asset management, which prioritize customer needs by providing "reasonable long-term returns" and "good process experiences," with a strong emphasis on drawdown control [4] - The investment goal is to offer clients a packaged investment solution that does not require them to time the market or select styles [4] - Historical performance demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach, showcasing strong anti-drawdown characteristics during bear markets and rapid recovery during rebounds [4] Group 4: Risk Management and Market Outlook - The manager's approach to risk management is illustrated by the example of the West China New Trends fund, which effectively utilized the risk control system to adjust positions based on market signals [5] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, drawing parallels to the 2013-2015 growth of the ChiNext board, with a focus on the current high-quality technology wave and the emergence of entrepreneurs with core technologies [6] - The investment strategy will focus on sectors experiencing rapid growth along the "S-curve," particularly in AI and frontier technology, as well as consumer sectors that align with domestic demand [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive investment experience through various market conditions for the growth of fund managers, highlighting the balance between offensive and defensive strategies in investment management [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy of the fund manager is centered around a "first principles" approach, focusing on customer experience and the need for reasonable long-term returns and good process experiences [4] - The manager aims to provide a packaged investment solution that does not require clients to time the market or choose styles, ensuring a smoother investment experience [5] Group 2: Investment Framework - The fund manager has developed a "three-in-one" investment framework consisting of an investment decision system, a risk control system, and mindset, which are interdependent and essential for effective investment management [3] - The investment decision system combines top-down and bottom-up approaches to identify quality assets with good fundamentals and reasonable valuations, while the risk control system focuses on managing drawdowns through a combination of active and passive measures [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The fund manager maintains a relatively optimistic outlook for the market in 2026, drawing parallels to the entrepreneurial market from 2013 to 2015, but notes that the current technological wave has higher intrinsic value [6] - Key investment areas include AI, which is seen as a long-cycle technological revolution, and sectors with rapid growth potential such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and high-quality consumer goods that cater to emerging demands [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance for CEOs to avoid complacency after initial success and to continuously seek ways to create greater value [1][2][23] - It highlights that maintaining success is often more challenging than achieving it, with many companies failing to sustain their performance over time [2][3] Group 1: Strategies to Avoid Complacency - Continuous learning is crucial for CEOs to stay ahead, focusing on listening and integrating insights rather than merely sharing their successes [5][9] - Engaging with external stakeholders, including customers and investors, can provide valuable insights and inspiration for new product development and strategic direction [7][10] - CEOs should adopt an outsider's perspective to critically assess their companies, avoiding the pitfalls of being overly comfortable with past successes [10][11] Group 2: Planning for Future Growth - Successful CEOs combine knowledge gained from ongoing learning with an outsider's perspective to identify the next performance S-curve for their companies [15][19] - Collaboration with teams in defining future strategies is essential, as it fosters engagement and ownership among employees [17][19] - Preparing for future challenges involves building a strong talent pipeline and maintaining relationships with stakeholders to ensure resilience during crises [22][23] Group 3: Crisis Management - Companies must regularly conduct stress tests to prepare for potential crises, as crises are inevitable regardless of current performance [20][21] - Establishing a comprehensive crisis management plan is vital, detailing leadership processes and communication strategies during emergencies [21][22] - Building trust with stakeholders before a crisis occurs can significantly impact a company's ability to navigate challenges effectively [21][22]