美国财长贝森特：战略不确定性是关税谈判中的一部分。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that strategic uncertainty is a significant factor in tariff negotiations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold has long - term strategic allocation value and is in high - level adjustment. Silver is in wide - range adjustment. Copper is recommended to be held in a light or empty position during the holiday and is bullish in the long - term. Zinc is recommended to be held in an empty position during the holiday and shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under pressure. Tin shows a trend of rising and then falling. Aluminum is in a rebound trend. Nickel shows a trend of rebounding and then falling. Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish [1]. - For gold and silver, there are many uncertainties, and protection measures should be taken. Short - term gold sentiment is slack, and one can participate after it stops falling and stabilizes. Silver should be treated with a shock - trading mindset [2][3]. - For copper, due to the upcoming release of important macro - data and Trump's tough tariff stance, it is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday, but it is bullish in the long - term [4][5]. - For zinc, due to the approaching holiday and rising risk - aversion sentiment, it is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday and short on rallies in the long - term [7][8]. - For aluminum, with inventory digestion, the price has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [10][11]. - For nickel and stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on inventory changes [12][13]. - For lithium carbonate, the price continues to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Data**: SHFE gold price is 785.14, up 0.65% from the previous value; COMEX gold price is 3328, down 0.81%. SHFE silver price is 8215, up 0.58%; COMEX silver price is 33, down 0.54%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio is 95.57, up 0.08% [2]. - **Logic**: The US commodity trade deficit in March increased by 9.6% to 162 billion US dollars. The 90 - day trade negotiation involves multiple countries, and the US recession trend will be exacerbated by tariffs. Gold's short - term adjustment is affected by factors such as the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, but the bull - market logic remains unchanged [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term gold can be participated in after it stops falling and stabilizes. Silver should be treated with a shock - trading mindset in the range of [8100, 8400], and buy options can be used for protection during the holiday [3]. Copper - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 77630 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.22%. The total social inventory is 155,100 tons, a decrease of 26,600 tons [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is constantly disrupted, and the processing fee of copper concentrates hits a new low. Demand shows resilience, but is affected by copper price fluctuations and US tariff policies. As the peak season ends, inventory digestion may slow down [5]. - **Strategy**: During the May Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and hold a light or empty position. In the long - term, copper is bullish. The short - term range of Shanghai copper is [76500, 78500] yuan/ton, and that of London copper is [9200, 9600] US dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc is 22530 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The total inventory of zinc exchanges is 51,378 tons, a decrease of 7207 tons [7]. - **Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose. The import of zinc concentrates in March decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the start - up rate of enterprises is falling [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold an empty position during the May Day holiday. In the long - term, short on rallies. The range of Shanghai zinc is [22000, 23000] yuan/ton, and that of London zinc is [2600, 2700] US dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 19930 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The LME aluminum inventory is 417,575 tons, down 0.48% [10]. - **Logic**: The impact of overseas tariff policies weakens. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory decreases, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises increases. The supply and demand pattern of alumina is temporarily relieved [11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, focusing on the performance of the peak season. The main operating range is [19600, 20300] yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 124180 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The SMM pure nickel social inventory is 44,661 tons, up 1.59% [12]. - **Logic**: The impact of the overseas macro - environment weakens. The increase in the nickel ore royalty in Indonesia supports the price, but domestic inventory is at a high level. The inventory digestion of stainless steel encounters resistance, and the supply - demand surplus continues [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000, 129000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of the main contract LC2507 is 66,260 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The total inventory is 131,864 tons, up 0.20% [14]. - **Logic**: The fundamental situation has not improved significantly, with 11 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. Downstream pre - holiday restocking willingness is low, and demand has no seasonal increase. Although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of negative feedback [15]. - **Strategy**: The price is in a weak trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the range of [65000, 69000] [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Views - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff negotiations, OPEC+ production changes, and Middle East tensions. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. There is a recommendation to pay attention to domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report highlights the importance of monitoring oil prices and related inventory levels, with U.S. crude oil commercial inventory at 443.1 million barrels, a weekly increase of 20 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 4.5 million barrels to 229.5 million barrels, while distillate inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels [3][16]. 2. Price Changes - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for polymer MDI (up 6.0%), DEG (up 5.7%), and diethanolamine (up 5.7%). The largest decreases were for silicone oil (down 12.9%), DMC (down 11.1%), and natural gas (down 9.5%). Monthly price increases were led by trichloroethylene (up 16.3%), epoxy chloropropane (up 9.2%), and diethanolamine (up 7.7%) [10][17]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [14]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase [14]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [14]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator sector [14]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in price differentials [15].

Market Analysis - Dow Jones 30 has gapped to the upside and is approaching the crucial 40,100 area, which has been significant in the past, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] - The S&P 500 has also gapped higher, with the 5,000 region appearing to be a market floor and the 5,500 level potentially acting as a ceiling due to previous market behavior [3] Volume and Market Sentiment - There has been a noticeable increase in trading volume over the past week, suggesting strong interest in re-entering the stock market, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [2] - The market's reaction to tariff negotiations has been significant, with positive news leading to sharp upward movements, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to trade discussions [4]

美国能源部长：我对关税谈判非常有信心。 ...