东岳硅材所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学制品-有机硅。所属概念板块包括：有机硅、医疗器械、中 盘、融资融券、氢能源等。 1月8日，东岳硅材盘中下跌2.02%，截至10:21，报13.11元/股，成交5.05亿元，换手率3.14%，总市值 157.32亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出5807.97万元，特大单买入2347.52万元，占比4.65%，卖出4396.52万 元，占比8.71%；大单买入8035.46万元，占比15.92%，卖出1.18亿元，占比23.37%。 东岳硅材今年以来股价涨12.44%，近5个交易日涨9.34%，近20日跌1.43%，近60日涨43.91%。 资料显示，山东东岳有机硅材料股份有限公司位于山东省淄博市桓台县唐山镇工业路3799号，成立日期 2006年12月28日，上市日期2020年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及从事有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 主营业务收入构成为：107胶49.40%，硅油13.49%，110生胶12.11%，混炼胶5.46%，其他5.37%，气相 白炭黑4.32%，硅酮胶4.29%，其他(补充)2.18%，液体胶2.01%，中间体1.36%。 截至12月31 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） AI发展加速液冷渗透率,液冷工质打开成长空间 分析师：骆红永 S0910523100001 2025年12月29日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 u AI发展带来功耗问题，液冷方案逐渐明朗。在算力需求强力驱动下，数据中心等各种服务器数量大幅增加，所带来功耗问题 日益凸显。液冷具有散热效率高、降温快、无振动、噪音小等特点，面对高功耗高密度场景，传统风冷已无法满足能耗和散 热需求，液冷成为智算中心温控解决方案必选项，广泛用于AI算力、电子终端、互联网、金融、能源交通、工业制造等领域。 数据中心（服务器）、机器人、光伏储能等新兴产业快速兴起，为液冷市场拓展新的发展机遇。2024年中国液冷服务器市场 规模达到23.7亿美元，同比增长67.0%，2025年有望达到33.9亿美元，预计2024-2029年，中国液冷服务器市场复合增长率将 达到46.8%，2029年市场规模将达到162亿美元。液冷工质也随着液冷市场需求爆发而快速增长。 u 液冷工质多种选择，氟化液前景 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 基础化工 有机硅：供给"反内卷"与需求超预期 引子：有机硅行业的发展轨迹，是中国化工产业在转型期的典 型缩影。在新旧动能转换的大势之中，传统领域如房地产需求放 缓确实引发了产品价格周期性调整，然而这一过程也激发了有机 硅在新兴领域的渗透率及单位用量的积极增长，在行业景气较低 阶段依然维持了较好的需求增速。此外伴随行业集中度提高以及 近期"反内卷"升温，有机硅供给侧亦存在结构性优化机会。据 此我们对两个问题进行重点分析：①行业反内卷后续将如何演 绎？②具备超预期潜力的新兴需求领域有哪些？ 协同机制基础夯实，关注减产执行刚性 行业专题 国内有机硅产能扩张周期已逐步落幕，2019-2024 年，我国有机硅产 能从 151.5 万吨增至 344.0 万吨，CAGR 达 17.8%，后续虽有新疆其 亚、云南能投等新增产能规划在建，但具体落地层面的不确定性或使 实际投放有限，供给侧压力依然有望逐步缓解。行业产能集中度则持 续提升，2025 年 CR4 或达 54.7%，形成"一超多强"格局，为"反内 卷"协同奠定基础。2025 年 11 月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对 减产规划和监督 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251204：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/12/4 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,920.00 | -0.61% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 430.00 | 55.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 57,430.00 | 1.98% | | 元/吨 | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | -6,430.00 9,350.00 | -1,115.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | ...

资料显示，山东东岳有机硅材料股份有限公司位于山东省淄博市桓台县唐山镇工业路3799号，成立日期 2006年12月28日，上市日期2020年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及从事有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 主营业务收入构成为：107胶49.40%，硅油13.49%，110生胶12.11%，混炼胶5.46%，其他5.37%，气相 白炭黑4.32%，硅酮胶4.29%，其他(补充)2.18%，液体胶2.01%，中间体1.36%。 从东岳硅材十大流通股东角度 数据显示，广发基金旗下1只基金位居东岳硅材十大流通股东。广发聚丰混合A（270005）三季度增持 61.5万股，持有股数455.66万股，占流通股的比例为0.38%。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约314.41万元。 广发聚丰混合A（270005）成立日期2005年12月23日，最新规模33.66亿。今年以来收益32.71%，同类 排名1977/8134；近一年收益27.69%，同类排名2752/8056；成立以来收益418.4%。 11月26日，东岳硅材跌5.13%，截至发稿，报12.76元/股，成交9.95亿元，换手率6.30%，总市值153.12 亿元。 广发聚丰混合 ...

广发聚丰混合A（270005）基金经理为苏文杰。 11月25日，东岳硅材涨5.94%，截至发稿，报13.73元/股，成交8.22亿元，换手率5.15%，总市值164.76 亿元。 资料显示，山东东岳有机硅材料股份有限公司位于山东省淄博市桓台县唐山镇工业路3799号，成立日期 2006年12月28日，上市日期2020年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及从事有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 主营业务收入构成为：107胶49.40%，硅油13.49%，110生胶12.11%，混炼胶5.46%，其他5.37%，气相 白炭黑4.32%，硅酮胶4.29%，其他(补充)2.18%，液体胶2.01%，中间体1.36%。 从东岳硅材十大流通股东角度 数据显示，广发基金旗下1只基金位居东岳硅材十大流通股东。广发聚丰混合A（270005）三季度增持 61.5万股，持有股数455.66万股，占流通股的比例为0.38%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约350.86万元。 广发聚丰混合A（270005）成立日期2005年12月23日，最新规模33.66亿。今年以来收益30.78%，同类 排名1994/8136；近一年收益26.74%，同类排名2653/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

Summary of the Organic Silicon DMC Industry Conference Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is planning to reduce production by 30% starting in December to combat disorderly competition, similar to measures taken in the photovoltaic industry [1][2] - Four regulatory departments have been established to monitor capacity and output, with facilities installed for oversight [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Reduction Plan**: The industry will implement a 30% reduction in production from December 1, but companies can choose their own timelines to meet this target within a quarter or half-year [3][4] - **Current Operating Rate**: The current operating rate for DMC is around 70%, primarily due to oversupply from previous investments following price increases in late 2021 [4][13] - **Price Trends**: Organic silicon prices have started to rise, currently around 13,000 RMB/ton, with expectations to exceed 14,000 RMB/ton by December to cover full industry costs [7][10] - **Profitability**: While most companies are profitable based on cash costs, about half are still operating at a loss when considering full production costs [8][9] - **New Capacity Impact**: Xinjiang Qiya Chemical plans to add 1.6 million tons of organic silicon capacity, with the first phase of 400,000 tons expected to come online in mid-2026, which may alter market dynamics [11] - **Dow's Factory Closure**: Dow's German factory is set to close in early 2026 due to high costs and declining demand, indicating a shift towards sourcing materials from China [12] Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Measures**: The conference established a more robust regulatory framework compared to previous production cuts, with periodic checks and a focus on long-term carbon reduction goals [6][18] - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels are low, approximately less than two weeks, with no strict requirements for reductions based on inventory or losses [15] - **Future Demand Growth**: The organic silicon demand is expected to maintain a growth rate of 5%-7% annually, with significant contributions from sectors like electronics and renewable energy [24][26] - **Cost Structure**: DMC production costs are influenced by various factors, including raw material prices and depreciation, with significant differences among companies [25][27] Conclusion The organic silicon DMC industry is undergoing significant changes with planned production cuts, regulatory oversight, and evolving market dynamics due to new entrants and external factors. The focus on profitability and sustainable practices will shape the industry's future trajectory.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation in the industrial silicon market remains weak, and the silicon price is under pressure. For polysilicon, the downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.57% to 9,390 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: The southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the overall production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The north has a slight increase in furnace operation [1] - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, and the demand for industrial silicon may decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is limited [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The current supply - demand situation remains weak, and there is pressure on the silicon price. The trading strategy is to operate within a range, and pay attention to the registration of new warehouse receipts [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.63% to 54,625 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but with new capacity coming on stream, the output in October may increase slightly, and it is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons in November [1] - **Demand Situation**: The polysilicon market is trading lightly, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, and pay attention to protecting profits for existing long positions [1] Industry News - Yunnan Energy Investment won the bid for the Dazhushan Wind Farm Project in Huize County, Yunnan, with an expected installed capacity of 25,000 kilowatts [1] - Germany's new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 1,145 megawatts. The installed capacity of ground - mounted photovoltaic systems exceeded that of rooftop systems in October, while the opposite was true in September. The demand for rooftop systems continued to decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in industrial silicon prices is attributed to a significant meeting among major organic silicon manufacturers, focusing on coordinated production cuts and price stabilization efforts in response to market challenges [4][5]. Market Dynamics - On November 19, industrial silicon futures rose by over 6%, reaching a peak price of 9545 yuan/ton, closing at 9390 yuan/ton, marking a 4.68% increase [2]. - The meeting held in Shanghai involved key players representing over 80% of the industry's total capacity, emphasizing the importance of collective action to address ongoing market difficulties [4]. Production and Supply - A production reduction plan was established during the meeting, set to take effect on December 1, with an estimated decrease in DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) production by approximately 0.8 million tons, which will impact industrial silicon consumption by about 0.44 million tons [4]. - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to drop below 400,000 tons in November, reflecting a 12% decrease compared to previous periods, primarily due to reduced output in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions [6][17]. Pricing Trends - The DMC guidance price was set between 13,000 and 13,200 yuan/ton, representing an increase of approximately 1,700 to 2,000 yuan/ton since November 12 [5]. - Other downstream product prices have also risen significantly, with 107 glue priced at 13,700 to 14,000 yuan/ton and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, indicating a broader price recovery across the sector [5]. Demand and Inventory - Demand for polysilicon is expected to decline, while the organic silicon sector anticipates a consistent reduction in production, leading to manageable inventory levels for manufacturers [7][16]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon across major regions was reported at 546,000 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the coordinated production cuts by organic silicon companies are a self-rescue measure in light of prolonged industry losses and supply-demand imbalances [5][14]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued price fluctuations influenced by the implementation of the production reduction plan and the current demand landscape [14][15].