DMC 产能，这将进一步减少欧洲市场供应。国内方面，自 2019 年起，有机硅 产能增速加快，从 2020 年至 2024 年实现翻番。然而，由于盈利能力下降， 当前企业普遍处于亏损状态，因此今明两年内没有确定性新增产能投放。 有机硅：供需格局持续改善，行业景气有望底部反转 20250926 摘要 全球有机硅产能主要集中在中国，占比高达 75%，海外产能持续缩减， 陶氏计划 2026 年关停部分产能，进一步减少欧洲供应。国内产能虽快 速增长，但受盈利能力影响，未来两年新增产能有限。 有机硅需求快速增长，年均表观消费量增速超 10%，主要驱动力来自电 子、电力新能源和建筑领域，合计占比约 60%，其中电子领域需求最大， 受益于有机硅的优异性能。 预计 2026 年全球有机硅供应将因海外产能退出和国内新增产能受限而 收缩，有望支撑价格上涨，改善企业盈利。中国作为主要生产国，产业 协同减产挺价能力强。 有机硅需求增长受益于下游应用多元化和渗透率提升，从传统地产建筑 向电子电力新能源领域拓展。硅橡胶是主要应用，室温胶用于建筑和光 伏，高温胶用于电子电缆，液体胶用于医疗日用品。 电子电器和家居护理是新兴需求增长点，尤其 ...

专家分享：有机硅行业现状与展望 20250926 摘要 全球有机硅产能向中国转移，2025 年中国有机硅单体产能占全球 77.33%，较 2021 年提升 10.39%。海外产能因成本等因素下降，中 国聚硅氧烷进口依存度降至 5%以下，主要进口高端及特殊用途产品。 中国有机硅单体产能增速放缓，2025 年无新增产能释放。新疆、云南、 内蒙古等地因成本优势成为新建产能集中地，华东地区凭借地理优势产 能占比过半。行业开工率有所回落，前三季度为 76.15%。 2025 年 DMC 价格跌至近十年新低，受供应端快速增长和需求端增速有 限影响。春节后企业曾限产保价，但随着盈利恢复，开工率提升导致供 应增加，价格承压下行。前三季度中间体累计消费量同比微增 5.5%。 有机硅下游产品消费结构中，硅橡胶占比下降，硅油需求增速加快。 2024 年硅橡胶需求占比降至 59%，硅油占比提升至 38.77%，特种和 改性硅油市场快速发展，对有机硅中间体的消费持续上升。 中国聚硅氧烷出口量增长放缓，但仍保持高位。2025 年前 8 个月出口 同比增长 1.47%，出口依赖度为 21.23%。全球产能转移、价格优势和 质量提升推动出口 ...

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the liquid cooling industry, particularly in data centers, driven by the increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions due to high power density and thermal flow density requirements of modern chips [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Liquid Cooling Demand**: The demand for liquid cooling systems in data centers is expected to grow significantly, especially with the rise of AI data centers, which are projected to reach approximately 7GW by 2024 and continue to grow rapidly through 2028 [8]. - **Cooling Technologies**: Two main types of liquid cooling solutions are currently used in data centers: cold plate and silent cooling. Cold plate systems can be further divided into single-phase and multi-phase systems, while silent cooling includes oil-based and fluorinated liquids [4][7]. - **Chip Cooling Requirements**: NVIDIA's new generation of chips, such as the Ruby series, has increased power requirements, necessitating more efficient cooling solutions like phase change liquid cooling [5]. - **Energy Efficiency Management**: Data center energy efficiency management is becoming more refined, moving from chip-level to cabinet integration, with a focus on direct cooling solutions for high-heat areas [6]. Material Insights - **Cooling Fluids**: Various cooling fluids are discussed, including synthetic hydrocarbons and organic silicone oils, which have advantages such as low impurity content and good oxidation resistance, but also drawbacks like low flash points [9][10]. - **Fluorinated Liquids**: Fluorinated liquids provide excellent cooling performance with uniform temperature distribution but are costly and primarily produced by 3M, which plans to exit the market by the end of 2025 [12][16]. - **Environmental Concerns**: PFAS substances pose significant environmental hazards, prompting the search for alternatives like perfluoropolyether (PFPE), which is more degradable but less stable than perfluoramines [17][18]. Market Dynamics - **3M's Market Exit**: The anticipated exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquid market is expected to create opportunities for domestic companies to fill the gap, potentially leading to lower prices for cooling solutions [16][21]. - **Production and Cost Trends**: The price of perfluorinated compounds is currently around 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than the 300,000 to 400,000 yuan per ton range from 2019 to 2021. Future production capacity improvements could lower prices back to previous levels [16]. Additional Important Content - **Key Players**: Notable companies in the organic silicone production space include Dow, Wacker, and domestic firms like Runhe Materials, which are innovating in the field [14]. - **Future Developments**: The report highlights ongoing research and development in alternative cooling solutions, including the use of hydrogen fluoride ethers in semiconductor cleaning and cooling applications [20]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential elements of the liquid cooling industry as discussed in the report, emphasizing the technological advancements, market dynamics, and environmental considerations shaping the future of data center cooling solutions.

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The liquid cooling industry is evolving with significant attention on NVIDIA's GB300 and the upcoming LOBIN structure, transitioning from traditional air cooling to advanced cooling solutions like microchannel cooling plates (MLCP) and bidirectional energy boards [1][2][6] Key Trends and Technologies - **Bidirectional Energy Boards**: Expected to become mainstream by 2026, currently facing design complexity and material selection challenges. R134 and 1,233ZD are the main candidates for refrigerants, each with pros and cons [1][4][3] - **Microchannel Cooling Plates (MLCP)**: Aiming to enhance cooling efficiency by integrating the cooling plate directly with chip packaging, though costs are significantly higher (3 to 7 times traditional plates) [7][6] - **Refrigerant Selection**: The industry is cautious about the transition to new refrigerants, with R134A likely to coexist with newer options due to its maturity and cost-effectiveness [2][13] Future Directions - **Integration of Technologies**: Companies are exploring the combination of bidirectional energy boards with silent cooling methods to address GPU cooling challenges [5][6] - **Material Innovations**: New materials such as quick connectors, CDU, and stainless steel hoses are expected to enhance overall system performance [8][6] - **Economic and Environmental Considerations**: The choice of immersion cooling fluids will focus on cost, performance, and environmental impact, with options like silicone oil and perfluoropolyether (PFPE) being prominent [9][10] Challenges and Considerations - **Design and Implementation**: The complexity of bidirectional energy board design and the need for better sealing and pressure tolerance in the phase change process are significant challenges [4][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The partnership between Dow and Intel has seen slow progress due to pricing mechanisms and responsibility allocation issues, impacting the adoption of silicone oil in data centers [11][9] Emerging Materials - **Liquid Metal**: Offers excellent thermal conductivity but is still in early experimental stages due to high costs and oxidation issues [14][15] - **New Tri-block Materials**: Recent advancements in tri-block materials have improved stability and reduced volatility, making them viable for semiconductor temperature control [17][16] Market Outlook - **Cost Trends**: The cost of K-type PFPE is expected to decrease below 300 RMB per kilogram in the long term, while Y-type PFPE remains high due to supply chain constraints [18][19] - **GWP Concerns**: The high Global Warming Potential (GWP) of PFPE remains a challenge, with no effective methods currently available to significantly reduce it [19][10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the liquid cooling industry, highlighting trends, challenges, and future directions.

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Runhe Materials (300727.SZ) appears strong with a 39% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, but underlying issues such as significant shareholder sell-offs, rising inventory, high accounts receivable, and declining R&D investment raise concerns about the company's operational challenges and future growth prospects [1][4][12]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholders of Runhe Materials have initiated a plan to reduce their holdings by up to 5.396 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, amidst concerns of "high-level cashing out" as the stock price approaches historical highs [2][3]. - This is not the first instance of shareholder reduction; previous reductions occurred in November 2024, indicating a pattern of selling during peak stock performance [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Runhe Materials reported a revenue of 679 million yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 57.75 million yuan, reflecting a 39% growth [4][12]. - However, the quality of earnings is questioned due to rising inventory and accounts receivable, which may indicate issues with product sales or excess stock [4][6]. Inventory and Accounts Receivable - As of June 2025, the company's inventory reached 151 million yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth, suggesting potential overstocking or sales difficulties [4][6]. - Accounts receivable also rose, reaching 332 million yuan by June 2025, which is 57.5% of the net profit for the same period, indicating potential liquidity issues and risks of bad debts [9][12]. R&D Investment - R&D expenses for the first half of 2025 were 25.49 million yuan, a 7.3% decline year-on-year, marking the lowest proportion of revenue dedicated to R&D in three years at 3.75% [10][12]. - The declining trend in R&D investment raises concerns about the company's ability to innovate and compete in the high-end organic silicon market, where continuous investment in technology is crucial [10][12]. Market Sentiment - The current price-to-earnings ratio of 64 times is at a historical high, and the simultaneous actions of major shareholders reducing their stakes while the company seeks to raise funds through bond issuance have led to skepticism regarding the company's future outlook [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main products are under pressure, and it is waiting for a recovery in the industry chain [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a decline of 140.60% year-on-year [4][5] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.11% and 13.02%, respectively [4] - The company experienced a significant drop in sales volume and prices for its main products, including industrial silicon, silicone rubber, and silicone oil [5] - The report indicates that the company is expected to benefit from potential price recovery as the industry undergoes restructuring and capacity consolidation [6] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.014 billion, 2.840 billion, and 3.773 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30.06X, 21.31X, and 16.04X [7] - Key financial indicators for 2025E include revenue of 28.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, and a net profit margin of 7.0% [10] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 18.8% in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 5.8% [10]

Core Viewpoint - New An Co., Ltd. is facing severe challenges due to industry overcapacity and declining prices in the silicon-based new materials sector, leading to significant financial losses and a negative net profit for the first time since its listing [1][14]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New An reported total revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.0734 million yuan, down 47.71% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was -23.9177 million yuan, a dramatic decline of 197.73%, indicating that its core business is in a loss-making state [1]. - The reliance on government subsidies (64.39 million yuan) and non-current asset disposals (51.77 million yuan) to support profits raises concerns about the sustainability of its earnings [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The silicon-based new materials sector, particularly organic silicon, has seen a significant increase in production capacity, with total domestic organic silicon capacity reaching 3.2 million tons by the end of 2024 [3][12]. - Despite a compound annual growth rate of 10.7% in apparent consumption from 2017 to 2024, the rapid expansion of capacity has led to a supply-demand imbalance [3][12]. - The price of industrial silicon has plummeted, with a decline of 23% from the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, and further dropping to 9,350 yuan per ton by mid-2025, resulting in a significant impact on profitability [3][5]. Group 3: Asset and Cash Flow Management - New An has recognized asset impairment risks, with a total impairment provision of 83.93 million yuan in the first half of 2025, including a 68.54 million yuan provision for inventory [5][6]. - The company's accounts receivable reached 2.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, with a staggering ratio of accounts receivable to net profit at 4,195.51% [6]. - Continuous negative cash flow from operating and investing activities, amounting to -1.72 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicates a weak ability to generate cash from core operations [7]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - New An's major project, the organic silicon synthesis project, has been delayed from September 2025 to March 2026 due to changing market conditions and increased competition [13]. - The company is still pursuing upstream industrial silicon capacity expansion despite the declining prices, raising questions about the viability of this strategy [14]. - The overall situation reflects a structural issue within the organic silicon industry, where overcapacity and price wars are severely compressing profit margins [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Xin'an Chemical, is positioned as a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with expectations for performance improvement under the backdrop of national policies emphasizing anti-involution [5][8]. - The company has a comprehensive business model that integrates crop protection, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials, leveraging its unique "chlorosilicon-phosphorus" circular economy model [12][5]. - The glyphosate market is expected to see a turning point due to demand recovery and supply disruptions, with the company benefiting from its global market presence and production capacity [5][18]. - The organosilicon sector is anticipated to undergo structural changes in demand, with the company poised to benefit from the end of the expansion cycle and a shift towards high-end applications [5][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xin'an Chemical was established in 1965 and has developed a strong presence in the agricultural chemicals and organosilicon sectors, with a focus on a full-chain integration model in crop protection [12][5]. - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in various industries including electronics and transportation [12][5]. 2. Glyphosate and Organosilicon Market Dynamics - Glyphosate is the world's leading herbicide, with a significant market share, and the company has a production capacity of 80,000 tons per year [5][18]. - The demand for glyphosate is expected to increase due to the growing adoption of genetically modified crops, particularly in China, which is projected to enhance market demand significantly [20][22]. - The organosilicon market is experiencing a shift in demand structure, with the company focusing on high-end applications and innovations in terminal products [5][36]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to see substantial growth in net profit from 388 million yuan in 2025 to 957 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 653.9% and 36.7% respectively [8][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [8][7]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The glyphosate industry is characterized by high concentration, with the company holding a 10% market share in China, benefiting from a favorable supply-side environment [23][26]. - The organosilicon industry is seeing a consolidation of production capacity among leading firms, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its cost advantages and integrated operations [40][43].