Core Points - The U.S. President has postponed the planned 50% tariffs on EU products from June 1 to July 9 to allow for negotiations [1][2] - The U.S. originally intended to impose a 20% "reciprocal tariff" on EU imports, but has retained a 10% "baseline tariff" [2][4] - The EU has expressed that the U.S. government's aggressive stance is unacceptable and emphasized the need to maintain their position without escalating the dispute [4][12] Group 1 - The U.S. government's recent threats and subsequent postponement reflect the uncertainty in its tariff policy, which is seen as a negotiation tactic [7][9] - Experts warn that imposing high tariffs could lead to an economic recession in the U.S., with potential impacts on GDP and inflation [9][11] - The current tariffs on EU products include a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on automobiles and steel, which are already significant burdens [11][12] Group 2 - The EU is committed to reaching an agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline [13] - The EU has stated that it will not concede on key issues and is open to cooperation only if the U.S. is willing to negotiate fairly [17]

自上任以来，美国总统特朗普已充分让全球人民看到了他的"喜怒无常"，关税政策朝令夕改也是见怪不怪了。由此带来的不确定性令人苦不堪言，从企业到 各国政府均被牵涉其中。 就在刚刚过去的周日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周日再次为特朗普辩护称，在与其他国家的贸易谈判中使用"战略不确定性"，是特朗普 的谈判策略。 当被问及特朗普的关税给美国小企业带来的不确定性时，贝森特在一档节目中说，"就我们与全球各国的糟糕贸易形势而言，我们不是一夜之间就走到这一 步的。特朗普总统正在重新谈判这些问题，战略上的不确定性是一种谈判策略。" 贝森特说，"我们不想与中国脱钩。特朗普总统实际上想要中国开放商业。所以我们想把制造业带回来。" "在新冠疫情期间，我们意识到我们有一些非常战略性的不足，无论是药品、半导体、钢铁还是其他产品。因此，中期目标是尽快恢复这些战略产业。"他补 充说。 上周一，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取一系列举措，包括修改和取消对彼此商品加征的关税，以及暂停或取消非 关税反制措施。这也意味着这两个全球最大的经济体之间的贸易摩擦有所缓和，向全球释放了积极信号 ...

特朗普低估了中国，也高估了自己。现在，中美围绕关税战的首次接触正在进行中，特朗普还没来得及庆祝，就听到了一个坏消息。美联储主席鲍威尔宣 布，经过两天的议息会，决定维持现有利率不变。同一时间，华尔街最新数据出炉，美元指数继续下跌，从年初到现在已经跌去9%。 懂王的计划 这些事情乍一看，不像印巴冲突、中美关税战那么炸裂，但实际上，特朗普上台后的一系列内政外交政策，都是围绕美联储、美元指数展开。特朗普自以 为，他有一个完美的计划，能在促使"制造业回流"的同时挽救摇摇欲坠的美国经济。但因为中国的强势反击，和鲍威尔的不动如山，特朗普彻底玩砸了。 让我们把时间推回到2024年12月，特朗普刚当选不久，还没有正式上任。他在谈到美国沉重的联邦债务时，就在对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储降息。从理论上 来说，美联储降息，等于美元放水，政府能通过更低的利率借钱，要支付的利息成本也更低。虽然这会导致美元出现贬值，但这也会增强美国出口商品的竞 争力。 同时，特朗普将通过"关税政策"对世界各国施压，要求他们解决和美国的贸易差额，不管是把企业搬迁到美国来生产，还是增加对美国商品的进口，又或是 大幅增持美债，都能增加美国政府的进项，手里有更多的钱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasizes the need to stabilize the situation before advancing further actions, indicating that current uncertainties, particularly from Trump's administration, may lead to market volatility while ensuring favorable trade agreements are pursued [1] Group 1 - The necessity to first ease tensions is highlighted as a prerequisite for subsequent actions [1] - The potential for "strategic uncertainty" under Trump's leadership is noted as a factor that could disrupt market stability [1] - The commitment to securing the most advantageous trade agreements is reaffirmed [1]

美国财长贝森特：战略不确定性是关税谈判中的一部分。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that strategic uncertainty is a significant factor in tariff negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, is reportedly pressuring over 70 countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, which is seen as a form of economic coercion and unilateral bullying [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. is using tariffs as a tool to force other nations into compliance, promoting a narrative of "reciprocity" while actually engaging in hegemonic practices [1][3]. - The U.S. aims to create a coalition against China, expecting other countries to join in a trade war without bearing significant costs themselves [1][3]. - The potential for countries to comply with U.S. demands is low, as many view China as a more significant trade partner than the U.S. [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Trade - China's position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years, with a market share of 14.7%, highlights the potential disruption caused by U.S. policies [3]. - The coercive tactics employed by the U.S. could lead to chaos in international trade and destabilize supply chains, with unpredictable consequences [3][5]. - A collective statement from over 100 economists warns that U.S. workers will be the first to suffer from the adverse effects of tariff policies, facing rising prices and economic downturns [3]. Group 3: China's Response - China firmly opposes any trade agreements that sacrifice its interests and is prepared to take reciprocal measures if pressured [5]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in a trade war and calls for dialogue based on equality and mutual respect [5][7]. - The Chinese stance is reinforced by a recent UN meeting attended by over 80 countries, discussing the impacts of unilateralism and bullying on international relations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and China have not engaged in any negotiations regarding tariffs, contradicting claims from the Trump administration that talks were ongoing [1][3][30] Group 1: U.S. Position and Actions - The Trump administration has repeatedly claimed to be in negotiations with China, but these assertions have been firmly denied by Chinese officials [3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's admission of uncertainty regarding Trump's claims of negotiations indicates a lack of actual dialogue [5] - The U.S. is attempting to create a false narrative of negotiations to stabilize market sentiment and project a psychological advantage over China [5][8] Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China maintains a clear stance: it is open to negotiations but insists that any discussions must be based on equality and respect [8][18] - Chinese officials have actively countered U.S. claims, emphasizing that the trade conflict was initiated by the U.S. and that they are prepared to respond firmly [18][20] - China's strategic measures include imposing tariffs on U.S. goods and controlling exports of rare earth materials, which are critical for U.S. military and high-tech industries [24][26] Group 3: Economic and Political Context - The U.S. economy is showing signs of distress, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, raising questions about the effectiveness of the tariff strategy [8][10] - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant losses, with a drop of approximately $6.6 trillion in market value following the announcement of tariff policies [10] - Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to a record low of 39%, reflecting growing domestic dissatisfaction with his administration's handling of the trade conflict [10][13] Group 4: Global Implications and Future Outlook - The trade conflict has led to a backlash against U.S. unilateralism, with allies like the EU and Japan expressing discontent [14][18] - The ongoing tariff war is not just a trade issue but a reflection of broader geopolitical shifts, with the U.S. struggling to adapt to a multipolar world [28] - China's ability to diversify its export markets and maintain a stronghold on critical resources positions it favorably in the ongoing trade dispute [20][26]

4月初，特朗普宣布对数十个国家征收一系列高额关税，这一举动在全球引起了轩然大波，其中许多国 家几十年来一直是美国可靠的贸易伙伴。 然而，在他宣布这一消息仅仅几天后，特朗普将最高关税暂停了90天，但仍对大多数国家保留了10%的 基础税率。 特朗普宣布一系列征税措施的动机是为了应对贸易逆差，并重新调整他长期以来一直认为的那些使美国 ——尤其是美国制造业——在全球市场上处于重大劣势的关税政策。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）表示，特朗普在与世界各国领导人的贸易谈判中正在运 用"战略不确定性"。 上周日，贝森特接受了美国广播公司（ABC）新闻频道"本周"节目联合主持人玛莎·拉德茨（Martha Raddatz）的采访，尽管选民对特朗普在经济方面的处理方式的支持率有所下降，他仍坚定地为特朗普 的关税政策进行了辩护。 贝森特在谈到特朗普反复无常的关税策略时表示："在博弈论中，这被称为'战略不确定性'。所以你不 会告诉谈判另一方你最终的立场。没有人比特朗普总统更擅长创造这种谈判优势了。" 他接着说："他已经亮出了这些高额关税——这就是大棒。而胡萝卜则是'到我们这里来，取消你们的关 税，取消你们的非 ...