证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-11-25 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《扩内需亟待发力，关注服务消费和 新基建投资机会》 - 2025.11.17 宏观研究 高频数据显示经济增速有所放缓，符合预期 核心观点 从高频数据来看，11 月居民生活半径有所回升，但"双 11"电商 节销售额或仅小幅回升，且汽车销售有所放缓，11 月社零或小幅增 长；工业需求有所分化，螺纹钢需求弱复苏，沥青需求环比走弱，整 体来看工业需求或维持阶段低位；我国对美发船数量环比小幅下降， 海上丝路指数环比走弱，但韩国前 20 日出口较为明显回升，11 月我 国出口或小幅回落；生产端或小幅放缓，上游生产环比走弱，中下游 生产分化，半钢胎生产率环比回升，PTA 开工率放缓。综上，在去年 四季度高基数的影响下，11 月经济或小幅放缓，供需寻求再平衡。 向后看，考虑去年四季度基数走高，11 月经济或小幅放缓，亦是 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持BOSS直聘-W(02076)目标价109.66元港币，维持增持评 级，收入业绩均超预期，需求改善驱动明显回暖，营销投放克制情况下依然完成规模增长目标;受宏观 经济波动及自身增速均值回归的影响，公司收入增速放缓，但公司进行了出色的费用控制，在保证核心 经营指标继续正增长的情况下，利润率继续提升。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 业绩简述 公司25Q3营业收入21.63亿/+13.17%;GAAP归母净利润8.06亿/+72.22%;经调整净利润9.91亿/+34.23%。 ①研发费用率同比大幅下降5.42pct;销售费用率同比-9.13pct。②公司在销售投放力度保持克制情况下， 企业付费用户和求职者活跃度维度加速增长(1-10月累计新增用户超4,000万)。③上述特征表明公司确实 已经建立起品牌心智，因此平台对求职者和招聘者有高粘性。④本季公司财报体现出需求回暖带动利润 增长的特点，后续公司AI将在匹配效率和增量产品维度为公司贡献增量业绩。 风险提示 经济波动影响招聘、招聘平台竞争加剧。 收入业绩均超预期，需求明显回暖 ①收入和业绩加速增长背后反映的需求回暖是最大亮点。② ...

Group 1 - BOSS Zhipin's stock rose nearly 2.5% following the release of its Q3 2025 financial report, which showed revenue of 2.163 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 775 million RMB, up 67.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The improvement in profit is attributed to effective control of sales and marketing expenses, which decreased by 24.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue structure of BOSS Zhipin is primarily from online recruitment services for corporate clients, accounting for over 99% of total revenue, with other service revenues declining due to optimization efforts [3][7] Group 2 - BOSS Zhipin's growth is driven by market demand recovery, user growth, AI integration, and cost control, leading to significant improvements in profitability [2][14] - The number of paying corporate clients reached 6.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, supported by a recovering macroeconomic environment [16][32] - The company has successfully reduced operational costs, with total expenses decreasing by 7.0% year-on-year, and marketing expenses down by 24.6% [15][20] Group 3 - BOSS Zhipin's growth is also fueled by capturing new market segments, particularly in the blue-collar job market and lower-tier cities, which have historically low online penetration [26][27] - The platform is focusing on enhancing the matching efficiency between employers and job seekers, which is crucial for maintaining user engagement and revenue growth [30][34] - The overall employment market recovery, with a 5.4% increase in the service sector's value added, has contributed to the demand for recruitment services [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2025 financial report indicates a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, amidst a recovering job market driven by macroeconomic factors and AI technology integration [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall recruitment market is recovering, with blue-collar jobs and lower-tier markets emerging as new growth engines, while AI technology is enhancing efficiency for both users and companies [3][4]. - The national employment situation is improving, with the urban survey unemployment rate dropping to 5.1% in October, signaling a positive trend in job demand [4]. - BOSS Zhipin reported a 25% year-on-year increase in new job postings in Q3, with a notable shift where the number of active users on the employer side surpassed that of job seekers for the first time in three years, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [4][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Blue-collar job performance is particularly strong, with manufacturing leading revenue growth for five consecutive quarters, and significant activity in transportation, logistics, and service industries [6]. - The income share of blue-collar jobs reached a historical high of 38% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 16%, outpacing white-collar sectors [6]. - Government initiatives aimed at stabilizing employment have led to increased demand for service sector jobs, with notable growth in positions such as kitchen staff and general laborers [6][7]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - BOSS Zhipin's sales and marketing expenses decreased by 24.6% year-on-year to 394 million yuan, while the average monthly active users reached 63.8 million, reflecting a healthy expansion in user base [8]. - The company’s R&D investment in Q3 amounted to 408 million yuan, surpassing sales expenses, indicating a focus on AI and technology for product development and safety governance [8][9]. - The net profit for Q3 was 775 million yuan, with operating cash flow of 1.174 billion yuan, showcasing strong profitability and risk resilience [9]. Group 4: AI Integration - AI technology is transforming the recruitment process, with BOSS Zhipin launching an AI job assistant that enhances user interaction and improves job matching efficiency [11][12]. - The AI tools are designed to assist HR in efficiently screening candidates and automating responses to common inquiries, significantly improving recruitment speed and quality [11][12]. - The application of AI in internal management has led to reduced development cycles and improved service quality, while also enhancing safety measures against recruitment fraud [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The recruitment industry is entering a new cycle driven by policy support, consumer recovery, and industrial upgrades, with AI technology providing unprecedented efficiency [13]. - BOSS Zhipin's financial results serve as a roadmap for industry transformation, highlighting the potential for growth in blue-collar and lower-tier markets, as well as the shift from information matching to intelligent decision-making in recruitment [13]. - The ongoing evolution of AI models and regional economic revitalization is expected to create new structural opportunities in the recruitment sector [13].

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with the number of paid enterprise clients growing by 13.3% to 6.8 million [1] - The job market is showing signs of recovery, with new job postings on the platform increasing by 25% year-on-year, indicating a positive shift in employer confidence [1][8] - Multiple brokerage firms have a positive outlook on BOSS Zhipin's long-term value, issuing "buy" ratings following the earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 24.6% year-on-year, while average monthly active users reached 63.8 million, a 10% increase [3] - R&D investment reached 408 million yuan, accounting for 21% of the projected revenue for 2025, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [2][7] Market Dynamics - The increase in daily active users (DAU) for employers has outpaced that of job seekers for the first time in three years, signaling a recovery in employer recruitment confidence [1] - The blue-collar and lower-tier markets are identified as key growth drivers, with blue-collar recruitment revenue growth leading the overall performance [8][9] - The manufacturing sector has shown significant growth, being the fastest-growing sub-sector for five consecutive quarters [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing the job-seeking environment for blue-collar workers through initiatives like the "Sea Cucumber Plan," aimed at improving job authenticity and user trust [8][11] - BOSS Zhipin's AI-driven recruitment platform is enhancing user experience and matching efficiency through various tools for both job seekers and employers [7] - The "Sea Cucumber Preferred" program has attracted more clients from the manufacturing sector, successfully recruiting over 3,000 workers for a major electronics manufacturer [11]

Core Viewpoint - BOSS Zhipin-W (02076.HK) experienced a nearly 4% increase in stock price following its earnings report, with a current price of 80.95 HKD and a trading volume of 569.34 million HKD [1] Group 1 - The stock price rose by 3.19% at the time of reporting [1] - The trading volume reached 569.34 million HKD, indicating significant market activity [1]

消息面上，BOSS直聘发布第三季度财报。期内营收21.6亿元，同比增长13.2%；净利润为7.75亿元，同 比增加67.2%。公司收入以招聘端为主，来自对企业客户的线上招聘服务收入为21.5亿元。截至2025年9 月30日止的12个月内，公司付费企业客户数达到680万，同比增长13.3%。 BOSS直聘-W(02076)绩后涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.19%，报80.95港元，成交额569.34万港元。 公告称，第三季度招聘市场稳步回暖，公司服务在蓝领、三线及以下城市等增量市场的渗透率持续提 升。同时，AI大模型驱动的产品功能在招聘端与求职端的渗透加快。 ...

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported a steady recovery in the recruitment market, with revenue, profit, and user scale showing robust growth in Q3 2025 [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.8 million, up 13.3% year-on-year [1] Recruitment Demand Trends - Recruitment demand has shown a steady upward trend since the second half of 2025, with new job postings increasing by 25% year-on-year in Q3 [3][5] - The ratio of recruiters to job seekers has improved, indicating a better supply-demand balance [3] - Blue-collar income growth continues to lead, with manufacturing showing the highest growth rate among sectors [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - The demand for positions related to AI, robotics, new energy vehicles, and smart manufacturing has surged, with significant growth in roles such as AI product managers and assembly engineers [5] - Local job markets in lower-tier cities are also experiencing rapid growth in demand for services like housekeeping and retail [5] Blue-Collar Market Strategy - BOSS Zhipin has focused on improving the job-seeking environment for blue-collar workers through initiatives like the "Conch Plan," which aims to enhance user experience and scale [6][8] - The platform's active user base among blue-collar workers has reached a level surpassing the combined total of its closest competitors [6] AI Integration and Efficiency - The company has enhanced its AI capabilities, improving matching efficiency for both job seekers and recruiters [9][10] - AI tools are now widely used for job recommendations and resume optimization, leading to increased user engagement [9][10] - The integration of AI in operational processes has improved efficiency while maintaining service quality [11] Financial Performance - BOSS Zhipin's net profit rose to 775 million yuan in Q3 2025, with R&D expenses becoming the largest expenditure at 408 million yuan [12] - The reduction in sales and marketing expenses by 24.6% year-on-year reflects improved operational efficiency [11][12] Safety and Governance - The company has strengthened its safety governance by implementing an "AI + human" dual review system to combat risks such as harassment and fraud [13] - AI technology is utilized for early detection of violations, enhancing the platform's ability to manage risks effectively [13]

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported steady growth in revenue, profit, and user base in Q3 2025, driven by a recovering recruitment market and increased penetration in blue-collar and lower-tier cities [2][3][12] - The company emphasized the importance of operational efficiency and technological investment, which have begun to yield positive results [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, BOSS Zhipin achieved revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.8 million, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Net profit for Q3 2025 rose to 775 million yuan, supported by a reduction in sales and marketing expenses by 24.6% [12] Market Trends - Recruitment demand has shown a steady increase, with the number of new job postings rising by 25% year-on-year in Q3 [2][3] - Blue-collar income growth continues to lead, with manufacturing showing the highest growth rate among sectors [3] AI Integration - The company has accelerated the integration of AI technologies in recruitment processes, enhancing efficiency in matching and communication [9][10] - AI tools, such as the job-seeking assistant and interview simulation tools, have seen increased usage, contributing to higher engagement rates among users [9] User Engagement - The average monthly active user count reached 63.8 million, a 10% year-on-year increase [12] - The platform's user base in the blue-collar segment has grown significantly, with a notable "snowball effect" enhancing its competitive edge [6] Safety and Governance - BOSS Zhipin has strengthened its safety governance framework, implementing an "AI + human" dual governance system to address risks such as recruitment fraud and harassment [13] - The company has actively collaborated with law enforcement, assisting in the resolution of 58 cases and the arrest of 607 suspects this year [13]

Market Performance - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.74%, Nasdaq down 0.63%, and S&P 500 down 0.5% [1] - Home Depot shares fell over 5% due to a same-store sales growth of only 0.2%, which was below market expectations [1] - On the other hand, Amer Sports shares rose nearly 9% after UBS reported strong growth momentum, expecting sales and earnings per share to exceed Wall Street forecasts [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Luobei up over 19%, Libang Kitchenware up over 5%, and Trip.com up over 2% [1] - Conversely, Pinduoduo fell over 5%, BOSS Zhipin down over 3%, and Baidu down over 2% [1] Cloud Computing Market Investigation - The European Commission has initiated market investigations under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) regarding cloud computing services [2] - Investigations will assess whether Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure should be designated as gatekeepers under DMA, despite not meeting the thresholds for scale, user numbers, and market position [2] - The Commission will also evaluate if DMA can effectively address potential anti-competitive practices in the EU cloud computing sector [2] AI Market Insights - Google CEO Sundar Pichai warned that if the AI bubble bursts, no company will be unscathed, acknowledging irrational factors in current AI investment trends [3] Supercomputer Development - AMD and Eviden will power Europe's first hundred billion supercomputer located in France, featuring next-generation AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct MI430X GPUs [4] - The project has a total investment of €544 million, funded by EuroHPC JU and supported by the Digital Europe Program [4] Apple Sales in China - Apple saw a significant increase in smartphone sales in China in October, with a year-on-year growth of 37%, raising its market share to 25% [5] - The production plan for the iPhone 17 series includes approximately 54 million units in Q3 and an expected increase to 79 million units in Q4, with an annual total production forecast of 133 million units [5] Baidu Q3 Financial Results - Baidu reported Q3 total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with core revenue of 24.7 billion yuan [6] - The company disclosed AI business revenue for the first time, showing a year-on-year growth of over 50%, with AI cloud revenue up 33% and AI native marketing service revenue up 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [6] BOSS Zhipin Q3 Financial Results - BOSS Zhipin reported Q3 revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [7] - The company achieved a paid enterprise customer count of 6.8 million, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year growth [7] iQIYI Q3 Financial Results - iQIYI reported total revenue of 6.68 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year decline of 8% [8] - The company recorded a net loss of 248.9 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 229.4 million yuan in the same period last year [8]