永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/10/9 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 3 • 聯儲局9月議息時多數官員稱今年可能適宜繼續寬鬆，投資者憧憬局方減息及美企盈利保持強韌，逢回調吸納科技股， 標指與納指周三創即市及收市歷史新高，標指盤中曾揚0.61%至6755點，收市仍漲0.58%報6753點；納指彈1.12%報 23043點；道指反覆升最多213點，收市轉跌1點；金龍中國指數揚0.87%。輝達及Netflix分別漲2.2%及2%，AMD再 飆11.4%，連續兩日創新高，本周至今累計漲逾43%，費城半導體指數躍高3.4%創新高。 • 聯儲局9月議息紀錄顯示，多數官員稱今年 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 102012 日星期五 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指上望 28,000 點：中美雙方同意延長 5 月中旬達成的 90 天關稅休戰 協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局勢緩和。另外，聯儲局主 席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要調整政策立場， 同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減 息空間少於預期。儘管港股企業盈利未見改善，但 AI 行情再起，科技股 領漲大市，加上 10 月四中全會事前料有政策憧憬，恒指上望 28,000 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 10 月密歇根大學消費信心指數； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 內地兩部門指無序競爭或導致劣幣驅逐良幣； 內地首8月規模以上工業中小企增加值按年增7.6%； 內地黃金周出遊8.88億人次，總花費逾8090億元人民幣； 內地國慶檔電影票房跌13%； 中國對境外相關稀土物項實施出口管制； 中方將反無人機技術公司等列入不可靠實體清單； 畢馬威指香港有望今年重奪全球IPO榜首地位； 歐洲央行議息會議記錄顯示不急於再減息； 企業消息 ➢ 舜宇光學(2382 ...

港股點評 2025年10月9日9:30 a.m 恒指跌 128 點，標普 500 升 39 點 港股下跌。恒指低開 57 點後幅擴大，曾跌 440 點見 26,517 點，其後跌幅收窄， 全日跌 128 點或 0.5%，收 26,829 點；國指跌 49 點或 0.5%，收 9,523 點；恒生 科技指數跌 36 點或 0.6%，報 6,514 點。大市全日成交總額 1,738.03 億元。 美國政府停擺進入第二周的進展，標普 500 指數和納指周三創下盤中新高及收 市新高。納指在三大股指中領先，收升 255 點或 1.1%，至 23,043 點。標普 500 指數高收 39 點或 0.6%至 6,753 點，當中，資訊科技、公用事業和工業板塊均創 下收市高位。道指高開低收，最終微跌 1 點收市，報 46,601 點。 三一重工(600031.SH) 就在港上市集資 15 億美元，計劃最快下周開始評估投資 者興趣。三一重工料本周進行聯交所上市聆訊，料未來數周在港上市，將成為 今年以來本港最大 IPO 之一。 比亞迪(01211.HK) 發佈 9 月產銷快報，9 月份新能源汽車銷量為 39.63 萬輛， 按年下 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) is currently experiencing a delicate balance between technical overbought conditions and favorable fundamentals, attracting significant investor attention [1][11]. Technical Analysis - The current RSI for HSBC is at 74, indicating an overbought status, which may lead to short-term price adjustments [1]. - The technical summary signals a "sell" with a strength of 8, suggesting moderate selling pressure [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 103.3 and 99.1, while resistance levels are at 108.2 and 115.3, with 108.2 being a focal point for market contention [3][9]. Derivative Products - HSBC-related derivative products offer a variety of options for investors. For bullish investors, the Bank of China call option (16930) provides a leverage of 20.2 times, while UBS call option (16458) offers 21.4 times leverage [6]. - For bearish investors, UBS put option (18811) offers a leverage of 7 times, serving as a hedging tool [6]. Market Performance - HSBC's stock price was reported at 106.9, down 0.28% at one point during the trading session [1]. - The trading volume for HSBC maintained a moderate level at 1.469 billion HKD, indicating that institutional investors may still be in a wait-and-see mode [12]. Historical Context - Recent performance of HSBC-related derivatives has shown significant leverage effects, with certain products outperforming the underlying stock, highlighting the potential for enhanced returns in trending markets [3].

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index opened high but closed lower, with investors taking profits and waiting for a buying opportunity around 26,300-26,400 [1] - The index reached a high of 27,058 points but closed at 26,544 points, signaling a "sell" [1] - Support levels are identified at 25,859 points and 25,300 points, while resistance is at 27,300 points [1] Group 2: HSBC Holdings - Investors view interest rate cuts as beneficial for HSBC, with expectations for the stock to rise to 110 HKD [3] - Some investors anticipate a decline to the range of 96-100 HKD, opting for put options [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing - The stock experienced a significant drop, closing at 444 HKD, which is within the Bollinger Band's middle line [5] - Short-term technical signals suggest a "buy" with resistance levels at 459 HKD and 470 HKD [5] - For those considering entry at lower levels, support is noted at 436 HKD and 428 HKD [5] Group 4: Ping An Insurance - The stock is trading within a sideways range, with a closing price of 54.25 HKD, near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band [8] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [8] - Support levels are at 52.7 HKD and 51 HKD, with options available at a strike price of 43.83 HKD [8] Group 5: Baidu Group - Baidu's stock closed at 132.8 HKD, above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band, with a high of 38.4 HKD during the day [11] - The data signal indicates a "sell," with support levels at 114.2 HKD and 103.2 HKD [11] - Investors holding bear certificates have a safe recovery price of 150 HKD, with resistance levels at 140 HKD and 162 HKD [11]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 469 points or 1.8%, closing at 26,908 points, reaching a four-year high of 26,936 points during the day[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 256 points or 4.2%, closing at 6,334 points[1] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 360.284 billion[1] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of CNY 418.5 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of CNY 114.5 billion for the day[1] - The RMB/USD midpoint was adjusted up by 14 points to 7.1013[1] U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since December, lowering the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%[2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 260 points or 0.6% to close at 46,018 points following the rate cut[2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 6 points or 0.1%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 72 points or 0.3%[2] Trade Statistics - In July, Hong Kong's overall export volume increased by 12.6% and import volume rose by 14.3% compared to July of the previous year[3] - The overall export prices and import prices in July increased by 1.7% and 2% respectively compared to the same month last year[3]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) is currently experiencing a technical overbought condition, with significant resistance levels identified at 107.9 HKD and 114 HKD, suggesting potential for a price correction in the near term [1][3]. Technical Analysis - As of the latest trading session, HSBC's stock price was hovering around 106.2 HKD, facing critical resistance levels [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 77 indicates a deep entry into the overbought territory, with technical indicators collectively signaling a "sell" [1]. - The stock's volatility is relatively stable, with a 5-day amplitude of 5.6%, while moving averages indicate a bullish arrangement, providing support at 102.05 HKD (MA10), 100.37 HKD (MA30), and 98.60 HKD (MA60) [3]. Derivative Products Performance - On September 10, when HSBC's stock rose by 1.82%, related derivative products performed exceptionally well, with notable gains of 44% for Guotai Junan call warrants (16871) and Bank of China call warrants (16930) [3]. - Other products like Societe Generale bull certificates (53270) and UBS bull certificates (68629) also reported returns of 15% and 18%, respectively, highlighting the potential for significant excess returns in a rising banking stock market [3]. Investment Opportunities - For bullish investors, Guotai Junan call warrants (16871) and Bank of China call warrants (16930) are recommended, with exercise prices of 115.98 HKD and leverage ratios of 23x and 19.9x, respectively [6]. - For bearish investors, Bank of China put warrants (16855) and UBS put warrants (18811) are suggested, with exercise prices of 81.5 HKD and 94.39 HKD, and leverage ratios of approximately 7.6x and 6.5x [6]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish positions, UBS bull certificates (65343) with a redemption price of 97 HKD and a leverage of 13x, as well as Morgan Stanley bull certificates (65901) with a redemption price of 96 HKD and a leverage of 11.9x, are recommended [8]. - For bearish positions, Societe Generale bear certificates (60879) with a redemption price of 113.8 HKD and a leverage of 12.5x are suggested, emphasizing the importance of selecting products with a safe distance from the current price [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong banking sector, particularly Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has shown a strong upward trend, with its stock price rising from HKD 5.66 on September 2 to a peak of HKD 6.03, nearing the upper Bollinger Band of HKD 6.04 [1] Technical Analysis - The RSI reading for ICBC is at 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, while moving averages show mixed signals with MA10 at HKD 5.82, MA30 at HKD 5.94, and MA60 at HKD 6.06, suggesting a search for a clear short-term direction [1] - Current support levels are at HKD 5.79 and HKD 5.59, with resistance at HKD 6.19; a breakthrough could target HKD 6.39 [3] - The stock's volatility is relatively low, with a 5-day amplitude of 5.5%, making it suitable for conservative investors [3] Derivative Products Performance - On September 9, when ICBC's stock rose by 1.70%, related derivative products performed well, with Citibank's call option (16438) and UBS's call option (15583) recording gains of 27%, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (57199) and UBS's bull certificate (65682) achieved returns of 19% and 13% respectively [3] - Investors bullish on the market are recommended to consider Citibank's call option (16438) due to its reasonable strike price of HKD 6.6 and a leverage of 19.7 times, which is the highest among similar products [6] - UBS's call option (15583) offers a strike price of HKD 6.67 with a leverage of 14.4 times, while the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation's call option (16703) provides a strike price of HKD 7.01 with a leverage of 12.9 times, both presenting good risk-reward ratios [6] Investment Strategy - For bearish investors, JPMorgan's put option (18332) with a strike price of HKD 5.22 offers a leverage of 12 times, making it a strong tool for short positions [6] - In terms of bull and bear certificates, JPMorgan's bull certificate (68394) has a redemption price of HKD 5, providing a safe distance from the current price, while UBS's bull certificate (65682) also has a redemption price of HKD 5, offering a leverage of 6.2 times [8]

Group 1 - The report details the changes in the registered capital of Zhengzhou Bank Co., Ltd. as of August 31, 2025, indicating no increase or decrease in the registered capital, which remains at RMB 2,020,458,000 for H-shares and RMB 7,071,633,358 for Shenzhen Stock Exchange shares, totaling RMB 9,092,091,358 [1] - The number of issued shares for H-shares is confirmed to be 2,020,458,000 with no changes, while for Shenzhen Stock Exchange shares, it remains at 7,071,633,358, also with no changes [1] - The report confirms compliance with all applicable listing rules and regulations regarding the issuance and transfer of securities, ensuring that all necessary conditions for listing have been fulfilled [2][3] Group 2 - The report states that all payments due from the issuance or transfer of shares have been received by the issuer, and all required documentation has been filed with the relevant authorities [2] - It is confirmed that all securities are identical in terms of rights and obligations, including dividend entitlements and voting rights [3] - The report emphasizes that all legal requirements have been adhered to, including the preparation and signing of trust deeds or agreements related to bonds or other securities [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank Co., Ltd. has reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with net profit increasing by 16.25% year-on-year, driven by a rise in interest income and effective cost management [2][3][10]. Company Overview and Key Financial Indicators - Qingdao Bank is listed on both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (A-shares) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (H-shares) [2]. - The bank's total assets reached RMB 743.03 billion, an increase of RMB 53.07 billion or 7.69% from the end of the previous year [10]. - Customer loans totaled RMB 368.41 billion, up RMB 27.72 billion or 8.14% year-on-year [10]. - Customer deposits amounted to RMB 466.14 billion, reflecting an increase of RMB 34.12 billion or 7.90% [10]. - Operating income for the period was RMB 76.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 6.31 billion or 8.97% [10]. - Net profit for the period was RMB 31.52 billion, up RMB 4.41 billion or 16.25% [10]. Management Discussion and Analysis - The bank emphasizes a strategy of high-quality development, balancing effective quality improvement with reasonable growth [6][8]. - The bank has expanded its business model to include retail banking, corporate banking, and financial markets, establishing a solid customer base [7]. - As of the report date, the bank has 204 branches and has achieved full coverage in Shandong Province [7]. - The bank's core competitiveness lies in its governance structure, market-oriented operations, and a diverse shareholder base [8][10]. - The bank has focused on enhancing its risk management and operational efficiency through digital transformation and advanced technologies [12]. Financial Performance Analysis - Interest income for the first half of 2025 was RMB 53.62 billion, an increase of 12.19% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of interest-earning assets [13][14]. - The net interest margin decreased slightly to 1.73% from 1.82% in the previous year [3]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.12%, down from 1.14% at the end of the previous year [10]. - The provision coverage ratio increased to 252.80%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [10].