2025.07.30 本文字数：633，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者|第一财经肖逸思 近期，碳酸锂价格出现罕见极端行情。上周五碳酸锂主力期货合约价格涨停，在本周一又跌停，7月29日继续收跌5.9%。7月30日，碳酸锂主力期货合约 价格才相对企稳，收涨0.43%。 "前几天碳酸锂价格暴涨暴跌的行情，其实很多是消息面的因素。"7月30日晚间，在2025年半年报业绩解读会上，宁德时代相关高管在接受采访时表示， 目前宁德时代在江西宜春的锂矿项目生产经营均正常。至于采矿权续期的问题，宁德时代已经按照相关规定，向江西宜春市自然资源局提交申请材料。 据上述高管透露，当前，省、市级相关部门都已确认收件，宁德时代申请采矿权续期的材料要件齐全，内容完整，目前公司正在等待批复当中，"我们觉 得是相对比较乐观的状况。" 消息面上，7月中旬，江西宜春市自然资源局要求8家涉锂矿山企业在9月底前完成储量核实报告编制，文件里明确提及越权审批的问题，引发市场恐慌。 中粮期货研究院报告显示，8座矿山采矿权生产规模为7390万吨（原矿）/年，在产7座，实际在产规模为4390万吨/年，占国内月度产量的20%左右。 其中宁德时代旗下宜春时代新能源矿业有限 ...

2025.07. 30 本文字数：633，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 肖逸思 近期，碳酸锂价格出现罕见极端行情。上周五碳酸锂主力期货合约价格涨停，在本周一又跌停，7月 29日继续收跌5.9%。7月30日，碳酸锂主力期货合约价格才相对企稳，收涨0.43%。 "前几天碳酸锂价格暴涨暴跌的行情，其实很多是消息面的因素。"7月30日晚间，在2025年半年报 业绩解读会上，宁德时代相关高管在接受采访时表示，目前宁德时代在江西宜春的锂矿项目生产经营 均正常。至于采矿权续期的问题，宁德时代已经按照相关规定，向江西宜春市自然资源局提交申请材 料。 其中宁德时代旗下宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司在8家涉锂矿山企业之列，其采矿权开始于2022年8 月9日，将于今年8月9日到期。 微信编辑 | 小羊 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 多个"新大学"首年招生分数线直超 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据港交所7月30日披露，欣旺达(300207.SZ)向港交所主板递交上市申请，高盛、中 信证券为其联席保荐人。 | [項下的[編纂]數目 : [編纂]股H股(視乎[編纂] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行使與否而定) | | | | [編纂]數目 | . . | [编纂]股H股(可予重新分配) | | [編纂]數目 | | :「編纂]股H股(可予重新分配及 | | 視乎[編纂]行使與否而定) | | | | 最高[編纂] : 每股H股[編纂]港元,另加1.0% | | | | 經紀佣金、0.0027%證監曾交易 | | | | 徵費、0.00565%香港聯交所交易費 | | | | 及0.00015%曾財局交易徵費(須於 | | | | [編纂]時以港元繳足,多繳股款 | | | | 可予狠覆) | | | | 面值 | . . | 每股H股人民幣1.00元 | 招股书显示，欣旺达是全球锂电池科技企业，致力于提供绿色及高效的新能源一体化解决方案。公司主 要从事锂电池研发、设计、制造和销售，覆盖包括消费类电池、动力类电池及储能系统在内的丰富产品 矩阵，向全球客户提供 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据港交所7月30日披露，欣旺达(300207.SZ)向港交所主板递交上市申请，高盛、中 信证券为其联席保荐人。 对客户依赖度方面，于2022年、2023年及2024年以及截至2025年3月31日止三个月，公司来自各期间五 大客户的收入分别约为人民币302.86亿元、人民币228.18亿元、人民币248.36亿元及人民币49.49亿元， 分别占同期总收入的58.1%、47.7%、44.3%及40.3%。 产能上，截至2025年3月31日，公司已有25个主要生产基地投入运营或在建设中，其中19个位于中国， 分布在广东、浙江、江西、江苏、山东及其他省份，另外六个位于海外，分布在印度、越南、泰国及匈 牙利，可及时响应并满足海内外客户的产品需求。 招股书显示，欣旺达是全球锂电池科技企业，致力于提供绿色及高效的新能源一体化解决方案。公司主 要从事锂电池研发、设计、制造和销售，覆盖包括消费类电池、动力类电池及储能系统在内的丰富产品 矩阵，向全球客户提供自电芯、模组到系统以及电池检测及回收的全面解决方案。 公司与全球领先的科技公司建立了长期稳定的合作关系，包括全球最大的智能手机公司、小米、联想、 OPPO ...

眼看中国厂商的磷酸铁锂电池产品一步步成为主流，国外的新能源巨头纷纷坐不住了。 起点锂电获悉，特斯拉与 LG 新能源近日先后加码了磷酸铁锂项目。 首先看特斯拉，最新消息称 特斯拉在美国的首个磷酸铁锂电池工厂预计会在今年年底投产，该厂位于内华达州 ，紧邻 Gigafactory 超级工 厂，拟规划 10GWh 产能，生产出的磷酸铁锂电芯将搭载于 Powerwall 和 Megapack 储能系统以及部分车型电池包中。 值得一提的是，该工厂的设备由宁德时代供应，马斯克此前对磷酸铁锂电池技术进行过高度赞扬，并做出了实际行动，也标志着特斯拉在电池 端的布局进一步深化。 再来看 LG 新能源， 7 月 30 日该公司宣布拿到磷酸铁锂项目，合同金额高达 43 亿美元（约人民币 309 亿元 ），规模相当于去年全年销 售额四分之一，如果该订单执行顺利，那么未来三年业绩基本无忧，更诱人的是该合同的附加条款说明，双方如果对彼此满意，可协商将合同 期延长至七年，根据需求扩大供货规模。 据路透社的独家披露， LG 此大单的合作对象可能就是特斯拉，不过一切以二者官方消息为准。 01 储能激发磷酸铁锂电池需求 特斯拉发力磷酸铁锂电池与储 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [67] Core View of the Report - In 2025, the market is driven by incremental funds from institutional liability - side changes, expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds. The upward trend of A - shares will continue in the second half of the year. Active equity products will enter a new golden age, and mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [5][15] Summary According to the Directory 1. Three Rounds of Market Review Driven by Funds: Individual Stock Era, Group - Holding Era, and Active Management Era - From 2014 - 2015, it was the individual stock era driven by retail investors and leverage. Policy encouraged capital market development, with IPO restart, Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, and liquidity release. Leverage and retail investors drove up market turnover and margin trading. Individual stocks and the index outperformed active equity funds [16][20] - From 2019 - 2021, it was the group - holding era of public funds. Core assets like Maotai Index and Ningzuohe aligned with industrial trends. Public funds had a positive feedback loop of new issuance, pricing power, and performance. Active equity funds outperformed the index, and non - heavy - held stocks by public funds performed the weakest [16][25] - In 2025, it is the active management era. Driven by institutional allocation, active equity funds are emerging, with their median returns comparable to individual stocks and outperforming the index [16] 2. The Rise of Active Management: Difficulty in Achieving Excess Returns through Heavy - Holding and Group - Holding, and Alpha Creation through Stock - Picking Ability - In this round of the market, heavy - held stocks by funds have not obtained significant excess returns. As of July 24, 2025, the top 5 heavy - held stocks by institutions only had a 3% excess return, compared to 75% in 2015 and 84% in 2020 [30][31] - The proportion of A - shares held by funds and the concentration of fund holdings are at a low level in the past five years. The proportion of fund - held market value decreased from 14% in 2021 to 7% - 8% in Q1 2025, and the concentration indicators such as CR100 and CR50 have also declined [34] - Fund heavy - held companies are shifting towards small - and medium - market - capitalization enterprises. The proportion of companies below 30 billion yuan in fund holdings increased from 8% in Q4 2020 to 14% in Q2 2025 [35] 3. Three Factors Resonate to Push up the Bottom Central System of A - shares - In terms of funds, major institutional types in 2025 are expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds into the market, including 816.2 billion yuan from insurance, 326.8 - 584.8 billion yuan from wealth management, 939.1 billion yuan from public funds, and 583.3 billion yuan from trusts [42][44] - From the perspective of stock - bond ratio, non - bank funds prefer equity assets. With the decline of broad - spectrum interest rates, the 10 - year Treasury yield cannot meet the return requirements of liabilities. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of fixed - income + funds has expanded significantly, indicating strong demand for equity - like asset allocation [45] - A - share earnings are at the bottom. As of Q1 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares (ex - finance) turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and cost management. Structural improvement is more worthy of attention [51] 4. Taking Fixed - Income + as an Example, What are the Institutional Preferences? - In terms of strategy selection, in bear markets, low - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance, while in bull markets, high - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance. In the current market, high - volatility products among the top 20% in performance ranking account for over 60% [54][59] - In terms of fund flow, during the 2019 - 2021 bull market, high - volatility products with excellent performance had a higher probability of net subscriptions. In 2025, funds are still in the transition from bear - market thinking to bull - market thinking, similar to 2019. Mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [54][59]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the trading logic is driven by improved profit expectations rather than reality, with average weekly trading volume in the stock market rising from approximately 1.5 trillion to over 1.8 trillion since the end of June, although a marginal weakening was observed last week [1][12] - The "anti-involution" and "Yajiang" phenomena have boosted trading sentiment, enhancing risk appetite from both supply and demand sides, with the market preemptively trading on future profit improvements [1][12] - Economic pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the A-share market potentially exhibiting a seesaw effect in August and September, making monetary policy a key timing consideration for the third quarter [1][12] Group 2 - The first phase of "anti-involution" is ongoing, with a return to the essence of distribution and demand expected after the initial heat subsides. The first phase focuses on cyclical trading, influenced by supply-side reforms since 2016, which have altered market perceptions of excessive competition in related industries [2][13] - The essence of "anti-involution" is to break the vicious cycle of "low price → reduced quality → internal competition" based on improved production efficiency from supply-side reforms, aiming for sustainable development through fair distribution [2][13] - Industry allocation is categorized over time, starting with cyclical expansion (currently favoring specialized chemicals), followed by emerging industries (solar energy, automotive, lithium batteries), then social welfare (education, healthcare, childbirth), and finally consumption [2][13] Group 3 - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as deflation, weak profits, and poor demand, with the timing of monetary policy easing being crucial for sustaining the stock market in the second half of the year [3][14] - The GDP deflator index has been in negative territory for nine consecutive quarters, indicating deflationary pressure, although the second quarter GDP growth exceeded 5% due to a low base [3][14] - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is only 44%, with net profit growth declining compared to Q1, reflecting that the profit side is still stabilizing at a low point [3][14] Group 4 - Key upcoming dates include August 12 for tariffs, August 22 for the last special treasury bond issuance of the year, and the political bureau meeting in September or October, which will influence policy timing based on economic data strength [4][20] - The report suggests that after taking profits in the steel sector, attention should shift to the first phase of "anti-involution" expansion, particularly in specialized chemicals [4][20] - The anticipated resolution of trade negotiations in the third quarter is expected to gradually materialize, with tariffs having a moderate impact on inflation, and profit expectations and risk appetite likely to continue driving risk assets upward [4][22] Group 5 - The report emphasizes that the resolution of trade negotiations will temporarily boost market risk appetite, but this focus will gradually fade in future trading [6][23] - The impact of tariffs on inflation at the consumer level is expected to be relatively limited, as businesses may absorb most of the tariff costs, with wholesale and retail profit margins declining [7][29] - Despite a significant nominal retail sales increase in June, actual retail sales growth remains weak, indicating that rising prices are suppressing consumption volume growth [7][30] Group 6 - The strategy recommends continuing to go long on US stocks and maintaining a strategic bullish outlook on the US dollar, while holding a bearish steep view on US bonds [8][36] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to act, as inflation and employment data do not present immediate risks, allowing for a wait-and-see approach [8][36] - The anticipated limited impact of tariffs on inflation and the significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve suggest that there may only be one rate cut throughout the year [8][36]

4、自2011年成立以来，公司一直聚焦于锂电池储能领域。在设立之初，公司以充电宝的ODM业务为 主，随着业务的持续发展，公司在锂电池电源管理、工业设计、结构设计等方面的技术积累不断加深， 并积累了松下、LG化学、比克电池、安富利等高质量的供应商资源，拓展了包括特斯拉、宝马、超霸 电池、DSG、ClasOhlson等知名客户，产供销体系日益完善，公司实力逐步增强。 5、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为95.09%，受益于人民币贬值。 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 7月29日，华宝新能跌1.12%，成交额1.25亿元，换手率4.57%，总市值98.66亿元。 异动分析 特斯拉概念+钠离子电池+锂电池概念+储能+人民币贬值受益 1、自2011年成立以来，公司一直聚焦于锂电池储能领域。在设立之初，公司以充电宝的ODM业务为 主，随着业务的持续发展，公司在锂电池电源管理、工业设计、结构设计等方面的技术积累不断加深， 并积累了松下、LG化学、比克电池、安富利等高质量的供应商资源，拓展了包括特斯拉、宝马、超霸 电池、DSG、Clas Ohlson等知名客户。 2、2023年7月11日互动易：公司与中比新能源达成战略合作 ...

碳酸锂周报 "反内卷"情绪快速切换，波动被放大 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年7月29日 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 投资策略 ⚫ 逻辑： ⚫ 策略:看跌期权持有 ⚫ 运行区间：64000-81000 ⚫ 资源端，国内锂云母供应扰动频发，锂辉石产量上升；锂矿进口量下降。 ⚫ 供给端，上周碳酸锂产量小幅下降，水平仍处高位，进口锂盐量下降，智利出 口锂盐量较低，回收端继续下滑。 ⚫ 需求端，新能源汽车产销量增速放缓。正极厂、电芯厂排产稳定，上周磷酸铁 锂去库、三元材料累库；储能电池排产增长，储能中标规模增长。 ⚫ 成本端，锂辉石精矿与锂云母价格大幅反弹。 ⚫ 库存上，总体去库，冶炼厂去库，下游与其他累库。 ⚫ 综上，碳酸锂基本面弱现实改观有限，下游及终端对高价承接能力有限，但供 应端扰动频发，资金与情绪影响仍大，预计碳酸锂宽幅震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：供应端扰动持续、"反内卷"情绪快速变化 1.1碳酸锂行情回顾 ⚫ 上周，碳酸锂震荡上行，周度涨15.82% ⚫ 成交量至627万手（+198万），持仓量至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between Chuangneng New Energy and Keda Li signifies a long-term procurement partnership exceeding 10 billion yuan in battery precision structural components, enhancing both companies' strategic relationship and supply chain resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Details - The agreement focuses on a comprehensive and in-depth collaboration in the field of battery precision structural components, moving beyond traditional procurement models [1]. - Both companies will establish a joint product research and development laboratory and specialized project teams to optimize product performance, improve manufacturing efficiency, and ensure quality and safety [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Supply Chain Strategy - This partnership reflects Chuangneng's confidence in the long-term development prospects of the lithium battery industry and its commitment to building a stable, technology-driven, and value-sharing supply chain ecosystem [2]. - Chuangneng aims to continue collaborating with more supply chain partners to empower industrial innovation and shape a core paradigm for high-quality development in the new energy sector [2].