Group 1 - Hitcard, a card company established only four years ago, is advancing its IPO process, indicating the collectible card market is entering a "monetization era" [1] - According to Huaxi Securities Research Institute, the top five companies in China's collectible card industry will account for 82.4% of the total market share by 2024 [1] - Card Game holds the largest market share at 71.1%, with projected revenue of 10.057 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 4.466 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing Pop Mart's 3.403 billion yuan during the same period [1]

传媒商社行业 投资评级 推荐 维持 轻量化IP载体撬动百亿市场，全链条布局构筑壁垒 ——IP衍生品行业研究之集换式卡牌 证券研究报告 2025年9月22日 证券分析师:李典 邮箱:lidian@gyzq.com.cn SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020516080001 证券分析师:徐梓童 邮箱:xuzitong@gyzq.com.cn SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020525080002 报告要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 集换式卡牌以收集和交换卡牌为核心玩法，经由IP与消费者产生情感链接，为玩家提供多维度价值。集换式卡牌兼具观赏和收集、即时体验、社 交、投资等多维度价值，相较于其他IP衍生品类，具备轻量便携，单价低的特点，通过集换机制进一步强化了其社交货币属性。目前以宝可梦为 代表的TCG卡牌（2024年销售约14亿美元）和以球星卡为代表的收藏卡牌（Fanatics Collectibles 2024年收入达16亿美元）依托竞技和交易生 态的构建成为全球两大主导品类。 美国及日本集换式卡牌产业起步较早，中国市场24年迎来爆发式增长，市场规模达到263亿，人群破圈和人均消费金额提升均具备较大空间 ...

更疯狂的是卡牌背后的"魔力"：道馆里"喷火龙ex"特典卡很快断货，二手平台直接炒到650元一张；原 价88元的"151系列"限购还售空。资本市场也跟着沸腾，凯知乐国际宣布和宝可梦合作后，股价一天暴 涨160.68%！ 现在的集换式卡牌早已不是小众爱好，卡游去年营收超百亿，"闪魂"靠游戏IP卡牌融资数亿。从19.9元 的挂件到789元的公仔，从娱乐对战到二手高价交易，一张小小的卡牌，正在串联起社交、收藏和投 资，难怪能让全年龄段都为之疯狂！ 北京大兴荟聚购物中心藏着个"顶流"打卡地！北京首家宝可梦官方卡牌道馆一开业，玩家从二楼排到一 楼，开业三天依旧要排队才能进。这里不只是小孩和年轻人的天地，情侣结完账就坐在对战区"过招"， 家长带着娃挑周边，不同年龄层都能找到乐趣。 ...

Core Insights - KAYOU, a leading company in China's pan-entertainment and cultural innovation sector, is entering the U.S. market, which is crucial for its global strategy [1] Group 1: Market Entry - The U.S. is the largest collectible card market globally, making it a key component of KAYOU's international expansion [1] - KAYOU plans to launch three major IP card series, including "My Little Pony," "Naruto," and "tokidoki," at the New York Comic Con in October [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - KAYOU's competitive edge stems from its comprehensive industry chain layout, covering R&D and manufacturing, which ensures product innovation and quality [1] - The company has a mature IP operation system, successfully managing over 70 well-known IPs in China, including global collaborations and original developments [1] - KAYOU excels in content re-creation to enrich the IP's connotation [1] Group 3: Sales Channels - The company plans to sell its products through multiple online and offline channels, including Walmart, Amazon, Target, Gamestop, Barnes & Noble, TikTok Shop, and live e-commerce brand Crossing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market, particularly with brands like Pokémon, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where inflated prices eventually led to market collapse [2][26]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, with companies like Kai Zhi Le International strategically entering the market through partnerships with top IPs like Pokémon [2][3]. - The Pokémon brand, established in the last century, has a significant cross-generational influence, attracting both younger and older consumers [4][6]. - The market is shifting from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [6][8]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value Pokémon cards are being auctioned for prices that can exceed hundreds of thousands of dollars, with some cards being compared to the value of real estate [10][21]. - The secondary market for cards is heavily influenced by rarity and condition, with professional grading institutions playing a crucial role in determining value [11][12]. - There is a growing trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets, with some cards showing annual returns that surpass traditional financial assets [14][21]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The consumer base for collectible cards is primarily composed of teenagers and young adults, with younger players focusing on gameplay and older players interested in trading and investment [14][19]. - The addictive nature of card collecting and trading can lead to irrational consumer behavior, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the market [21][23]. - The rise of social media and the Z generation's consumption habits are driving the rapid growth of the card market, creating a closed loop of "discover-purchase-share" [19][21]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Risks - The market faces risks from irrational consumer spending, IP expiration, and counterfeit products, which could undermine the growth of the collectible card industry [21][24]. - Regulatory measures are needed to protect consumer rights and ensure market stability, as the current landscape lacks sufficient oversight [23][24]. - The potential for a speculative bubble similar to the tulip crisis remains a concern, with the market needing to return to rational pricing to avoid a collapse [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the collectible card market is drawing parallels to historical speculative bubbles, such as the tulip mania of 1637, raising concerns about the sustainability of high prices and the potential for a market correction [3][32]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly with the entry of major IPs like Pokémon, which has led to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this space, such as Kaizhi Le International [5][10]. - The market is seeing a shift from a land-grabbing phase to a competitive landscape where established IPs dominate, making it challenging for other brands like Digimon to gain traction [7][10]. - The demand for collectible cards is driven by a mix of youth engagement and the purchasing power of middle-aged consumers, indicating a broadening consumer base [5][9]. Group 2: Investment and Speculation - High-value cards, particularly rare Pokémon cards, are fetching prices that can rival real estate, with some cards auctioned for tens of thousands of dollars [14][18]. - The secondary market for cards is influenced by various factors, including rarity, condition, and market trends, with some cards experiencing significant price appreciation [13][18]. - The trend of collectible cards transitioning into investment assets is emerging, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][30]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - There are concerns about irrational consumer behavior, particularly the addictive nature of card collecting and the potential for significant financial losses [26][27]. - The lack of regulatory oversight and the prevalence of counterfeit products pose risks to consumers and the overall market integrity [29][32]. - The market is currently characterized by a primary focus on entertainment and collection, with investment aspects still in a nascent stage [18][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future growth of the collectible card market will depend on consumer demand, innovation in card design, and the establishment of a more structured market environment [9][30]. - The potential for digital integration, such as NFTs, could enhance the value and security of collectible cards, addressing some of the current market vulnerabilities [16][32]. - The industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences and the lifecycle of IPs to maintain relevance and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the trading card market, particularly collectible cards, raises concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to the historical tulip mania, where prices may be artificially inflated and could lead to significant losses for investors [1][38]. Industry Overview - The collectible card market is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Pokémon opening official card venues in major cities, leading to significant stock price increases for companies involved in this sector, such as Kai Zhi Le International [2][8]. - The market is characterized by a diverse consumer base, with younger audiences drawn to the gameplay and older consumers focusing on investment opportunities [5][18]. - The rise of collectible cards is attributed to the increasing influence of IPs (Intellectual Properties) and the growing trend of experiential consumption among younger generations [24][28]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for cards, particularly rare and limited editions, has seen prices soar, with some cards fetching prices comparable to real estate [11][18]. - The trading card industry is evolving, with companies exploring partnerships with various IPs and expanding their product offerings to include both traditional and digital formats [8][19]. - The market is also witnessing a shift towards investment and collection, with some cards showing annual returns that exceed traditional financial assets [18][28]. Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks from irrational consumer behavior, expiration of IP licenses, and the prevalence of counterfeit products, which could undermine market stability [28][33]. - Regulatory oversight is deemed necessary to protect consumer rights and ensure a healthy market environment, as the current landscape lacks sufficient consumer protection measures [32][33]. - The competitive nature of the industry, coupled with the rapid evolution of consumer preferences, poses challenges for companies to maintain relevance and profitability [33][37].

9月10日，北京市大兴区荟聚购物中心二层热闹非凡，北京首家宝可梦官方卡牌道馆正式开门迎客，热 情的玩家与粉丝排起长队，从二楼蜿蜒至一楼。 这份热度并未随开业首日结束而消退。9月12日晚，《每日经济新闻》记者实地探访时发现，尽管人流 量较开业当天有所回落，但想要进入门店仍需排队等待。 集换式卡牌的魅力早已突破单一群体。记者在探访中也发现，卡牌的受众远不止小孩、青年、"宅男"等 传统认知中的群体，还有不少亲友结伴而来，甚至有情侣结完账后直接坐在对战区互动。 更值得关注的是，卡牌在中国资本市场也掀起了风浪。先是卡游宣布IPO（首次公开募股），今年8 月，文创品牌"闪魂 ShiningSoul"宣布完成数亿元人民币首轮融资，由高瓴创投领投。9月10日，玩具品 牌运营商凯知乐国际宣布布局集换式卡牌（TCG）市场，首阶段与"宝可梦"IP（具有商业价值的创意内 容或品牌）达成运营服务合作。随后公司股价连续两天上涨，首日涨幅达160.68%。 当越来越多消费者愿意为一张"纸片"花大价钱，当IP合作能直接拉动企业股价飙升，当卡牌从小众爱好 走向大众社交场景，一个新的问题也随之浮现：在热度与资本的双重加持下，卡牌IP的下一站又是 ...

Core Viewpoint - ShiningSoul, a cultural technology brand under Shanghai Zhenyouqu, has successfully completed a financing round of several hundred million RMB, led by Hillhouse Capital, indicating strong investor confidence in the collectible card game (CCG) market and its growth potential in China [1][5]. Company Overview - ShiningSoul was co-founded by Yao Shuo Bin, chairman of Yaoji Technology, and industry veteran Sheng Chuan, with the brand officially launched in November 2023 after its registration in March [3][4]. - The company focuses on game IPs, leveraging popular franchises to create collectible card products, which have shown promising market reception [3][4]. Market Potential - The collectible card industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size of 101.8 billion RMB in 2024 and an expected annual compound growth rate of 15.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3]. - The segment of trading card games (TCG) is particularly noteworthy, with a remarkable annual compound growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024 [3]. Product Success - ShiningSoul's collaboration with major IPs such as "Identity V" and "Genshin Impact" has resulted in several successful card series, with the "Identity V" series selling out within 26 days of launch [4][5]. - The emotional connection between players and game IPs enhances the willingness to purchase physical cards, as these products serve as tangible extensions of the gaming experience [5]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape includes other major players like KAYOU, which has reported a staggering revenue growth of 277.8% year-on-year for 2024, highlighting the lucrative nature of the card game market [6]. - The rise of collectible cards among younger demographics, particularly elementary school students, indicates a strong and growing consumer base for TCGs [5][6]. Strategic Plans - Following the recent financing, ShiningSoul plans to deepen strategic partnerships with top global IPs and expand its presence in key markets such as North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [5][6]. - The company aims to balance short-term explosive growth with long-term sustainability in the collectible card business, which is characterized by its blend of collection, competition, and social interaction [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The domestic card market primarily relies on overseas high-quality IP, while the overseas market is dominated by proprietary IP [7][22] - The core advantages of trading card games (TCG) include longer lifecycles and broader monetization channels [8][10] - Recent efforts by domestic and international manufacturers have created a positive cycle in the trading card industry, potentially leading to new growth points [9] Summary by Sections Differences Between Domestic and International Card Markets - Domestic card companies mainly operate on overseas high-quality IP, while the US and Japan markets are mature with proprietary IP [7][22] - The card types differ, with TCG being predominant overseas and collectible card games (CCG) being more common in China [28] - The domestic card industry is expected to undergo accelerated integration across its value chain [40] Advantages of Trading Card Games - TCGs benefit from longer lifecycles due to evergreen IP and competitive content design [8][57] - The competitive nature and blind box attributes of TCGs enhance user loyalty and consumption frequency [62][71] - TCGs have diversified monetization channels through mobile games and other derivative products [8][10] Breaking Through in the Trading Card Industry - The industry is in a cultivation phase, with consumer habits around competitive play still developing [9] - Domestic manufacturers are enhancing their channel strategies and event experiences to foster a trading card culture [9][49] - The establishment of a robust ecosystem through collaboration between manufacturers and event organizers is crucial for market maturation [9][53]