Key Takeaways Moody's has completed the full acquisition of ICR Chile, after taking a minority stake in 2019. The deal aligns ICR with Moody's Local, enhancing service depth in Chile's domestic credit market. The acquisition will not materially impact Moody's financial results for 2025.Moody's Corporation (MCO) has fully acquired ICR Chile, strengthening its presence in Latin America’s domestic credit markets. The terms of the deal have not been disclosed and the transaction will not have a material impac ...

Moody's (NYSE: MCO ) offers financial services worldwide, but is commonly known for its credit rating business. Through Moody's, thousands and thousands of bond issues and everything related to corporate credit ratings are evaluated each year. If you want to know how riskyHi there, welcome to my profile. My name is Eugenio Catone, I live in Italy and I am 27 years old.In 2023 I graduated in Business Administration and I completed CFA level 1 in 2024. I am currently a Popular Investor on the investing platfo ...

Key Takeaways MCO's top line is supported by analytics growth, acquisitions and strength in bond issuance volumes. Strategic buys like CAPE, Praedicat, and GCR boost diversification and expand global market reach. Elevated expenses from investments, inflation and compliance are expected to pressure profitability.Moody's Corporation’s (MCO) dominant position in the credit rating industry, its revenue diversification efforts and strategic acquisitions will likely continue to support top-line expansion. Howe ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Over the last five years, Moody's has achieved a top-line growth of 8% CAGR, with EPS also growing at 8%. In the last two years, revenue has grown at 14% and EPS at 21%, indicating strong operating leverage [3][4][7]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The analytics business has seen a growth in ARR of 9% to 10% over the last few years, although it has decelerated somewhat in recent quarters [53]. - The KYC segment has experienced high teens ARR growth, driven by recent AI initiatives [59]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately half of Moody's revenues come from outside the United States, with significant investments in domestic markets in regions like Africa and Latin America [12][14]. - The private credit market is currently valued at around $2 trillion, with expectations for growth to $10 trillion or more, presenting substantial opportunities for Moody's [38][39]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focusing on integrating AI into its offerings, enhancing its data and analytics capabilities, and expanding its presence in private credit and KYC solutions [4][60]. - The company aims to maintain its competitive position by leveraging proprietary data and analytics, particularly in the insurance and banking sectors [10][11]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while there are headwinds from elevated treasuries and trade policy uncertainty, there are signs of recovery in the issuance markets [22][23]. - The demand for independent credit assessments is expected to increase, especially during credit cycles, reinforcing the need for Moody's services [48]. Other Important Information - Moody's has made significant acquisitions to enhance its capabilities, including investments in companies like Predicate and Cape, which are expected to drive growth in the insurance sector [72][74]. - The company is exploring new revenue models, including consumption-based pricing for certain content sets, to improve operating leverage [76]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the long-term margin targets for MA? - Management indicated a medium-term target for MA margins in the mid-30s, with potential for further upside as the business scales and integrates technology [75]. Question: How does AI impact M&A direction? - The company is considering investments in analytics businesses that align with the future of B2B software and AI, balancing current business needs with future opportunities [78][79]. Question: What opportunities does private credit present? - The growth of private credit into retail markets is seen as a significant opportunity for Moody's, as it will likely require more ratings and assessments [81][82].

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不 把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 引言 最近不绝于耳的讨论是，达成什么样的条件才能形成抄底的安全边际？是价格优先（比如文华商品指数2019年3月的156左右的位置、 2020年9月146的位置）还是时间优先（比如美国遭遇CPI现实压力的2025年Q3末），但至少2025年4月解放日的低点并不牢靠的共 识正在形成。商品定价继续关注边际的力量，在5月12日后难觅新增的多头驱动，而在库存周期底部甚至进一步形成主动去库存的卖 压。 5月16日，国际三大信用评级机构之一的穆迪宣布将美国主权信用等级从最高级的3A（Aaa）下调至2A（Aa1）。从1917年穆 迪给予美国主权信用评级起，108年以来，这是其首次将美国的信用等级从最高级下调。 信用评级的下调直接 ...

财政部回应称，去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增 强，穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定，是对中国经济向好前景的正面反映。 当日，美元指数盘中跳水至98.6921，创三周新低。受此影响，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双上扬，离岸人民币（CNH）一度升破7.17关口，最高触 及7.16155元，创2024年12月以来新高，且自上个月以来，离岸人民币在1个多月内跌幅超2500个基点。市场分析认为，自穆迪下调美国信用评级 后，市场对美国双赤字担忧加深，美联储官员谨慎言论打压市场情绪，预计政策暂停将延续至7月会议，美元开启新一轮跌势。此外，美联储最新 会议纪要释放"鹰派观望"信号，降息预期推迟至9月，美国4月耐用品订单数据不及预期，也导致美元短期获利回吐。 机构方面，高盛外汇策略团队指出，若美元指数持续回落，人民币短期或测试7.15阻力位，但下半年走势仍需观察中美货币政策分化程度。近 期，中国央行通过逆回购、MLF等工具维持流动性宽松，叠加稳增长政策提振市场信心，中美利差预期收窄，部分做空人民币的套利资金加速离 场。中金公司表示，企业结汇需求季节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has historical implications for equity markets, suggesting potential volatility and directional moves in major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite [5][16]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1, marking the last major agency to do so, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [6][7]. - The downgrade highlights ongoing economic challenges, including persistent federal deficits, rising interest rates, and demographic shifts affecting labor force participation [8][9][11][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 experienced a 2.6% decline one month after the 2011 downgrade and a 1.2% dip after Fitch's downgrade in 2023, attributed to increased market volatility [17]. - Conversely, the S&P 500 saw significant gains of 18.8% and 20.8% one year after the respective downgrades, suggesting a potential recovery trajectory despite initial declines [18][20]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite concerns over national debt and economic headwinds, historical trends show that U.S. recessions are typically short-lived, averaging around 10 months, while periods of economic expansion last approximately five years [21]. - The average bear market for the S&P 500 has lasted about 286 days, while bull markets have persisted for around 1,011 days, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for investors betting on U.S. economic growth [22].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking it as the last major credit rating agency to do so, following S&P Global and Fitch [1][2] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade reflects concerns over growing fiscal deficits and elevated total debt, with the U.S. running over a $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2024 and having over $36 trillion in total debt [3][4] - Moody's indicated that the U.S. fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate compared to its past and other highly rated sovereigns, with expectations of larger deficits as entitlement spending rises [3][4] Group 2: Future Projections - Fiscal deficits could reach 9% of GDP by 2035, up from the current 6.4%, while total debt is projected to rise to approximately 134% of GDP, surpassing levels seen during World War II [4] - Annual interest payments on the debt, which accounted for 18% of revenue in 2024, are expected to increase to 30% by 2035 [4] Group 3: Legislative Impact - House Republicans' proposal to make temporary tax cuts permanent could add an estimated $4 trillion to the fiscal deficit over the next decade, excluding interest payments [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Historical responses of the S&P 500 to previous credit downgrades show initial sell-offs followed by recoveries, indicating that the market may not react severely to the downgrade [7][10] - The muted market response to the recent downgrade may be attributed to prior warnings from Moody's and the established understanding of the U.S. debt situation [11]

新华财经北京5月20日电上周，全球贸易局势有所缓和，尤其是中美贸易双方通过磋商达成阶段性共 识，市场风险偏好有所回升，叠加美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎，市场对美降息预期 也有所降温。国际金价受到压制，回调幅度较大。 不过，尽管中美贸易暂时敲定了协议，但可以预见的是，特朗普政府一贯的＂美国优先＂的贸易保护主 义政策将继续对全球政经秩序造成持续的困扰，美元信用也将持续衰落并对美国自身造成更大反噬。近 期，三大国际评级机构之一的穆迪下调了美国信用评级即是有力佐证，尽管美政府、美联储、华尔街纷 纷表态，试图降低穆迪调降的影响力，但美国经济衰退的趋势已愈发明显。与此同时，美联储长期维持 高利率环境已严重削弱了其国内的消费意愿，今年第一季度经济已萎缩0.3%，美国经济正遭受严重损 害。预计接下来特朗普政府与美联储对于围绕降息展开的博弈将不可避免的再度升级，市场对美国经济 前景的担忧将进一步加剧。 展望本周，市场关注焦点依然集中在全球地缘局势及贸易摩擦进展方面，此外，多位美联储官员对货币 政策的表态也将对黄金本周行情走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，现货金价自上周初经大幅向下调整 后，周终收盘拉回3200美元／ ...

US Stocks Brush Aside Moody’s DowngradeIn poker, a “tell” is a player’s subtle character or demeanor change that can unknowingly tip off an opponent and provide crucial information about how strong a hand they may have. The best and most powerful market tell on Wall Street is price action versus news. When the market gets hit with bad news, how fast it rebounds can be a tell for savvy investors.Friday, after the market closed, the Nasdaq and other major US indices fell more than 1% after Moody’s ((MCO) cred ...