Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun, presenting new opportunities and challenges for the commodity market [1] Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Commodities - Historically, commodities tend to benefit from interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 3% in the nine months following the first cut [1] - The price movement of commodities typically follows a specific pattern: an initial rise in the first month after the cut, followed by a pullback in the second and third months, and a resurgence in the fourth month [2] - The performance of commodities during rate cut cycles is influenced by various factors, with the macroeconomic backdrop being crucial [1][4] Group 2: Differentiation Between "Healthy" and "Recessionary" Rate Cuts - In "healthy" rate cut cycles, such as those in 1995 and 2024, commodities have shown an average return of 15% over nine months, primarily driven by energy and precious metals [4] - Conversely, in "recessionary" rate cut cycles, like those in 1998, 2001, and 2019, commodities faced an average decline of 16% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance During Rate Cuts - Energy and precious metals are the strongest performing sectors during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10% and 7% respectively in the nine months following the first cut [6] - Industrial metals lag behind, with an average decline of 4% during the same period [6] - Agricultural products and livestock show no clear performance trends during rate cut cycles [6] Group 4: Future Scenarios for Commodities - Three potential scenarios for the future of commodities have been outlined: 1. "Bronzilocks" scenario: Global economy remains resilient, leading to strong commodity returns [10] 2. Recession scenario (40% probability): High risk of U.S. economic recession, resulting in downward pressure on commodities [10] 3. Re-inflation scenario (45% probability): Risk of persistent inflation, with commodities expected to yield an average monthly return of 1.6% [10]

Group 1 - The rise of "play corn" has led to some corn selling for thousands of yuan each, attracting both young consumers and rural farmers [3][4][5] - The fresh corn industry in Guangdong has seen rapid growth, with the annual planting area reaching approximately 700,000 acres and the national planting area exceeding 25 million acres [17][18] - The fresh corn industry faces challenges such as insufficient genetic resource exploration, tightening production resources, and increased natural disasters and pests [19] Group 2 - The national agricultural technology promotion center has released scientific fertilization guidelines for tea trees to enhance production quality and efficiency [11][12][13] - Yunfu City has made significant progress in its "zero waste city" initiative, completing 28 construction indicators and 54 system construction tasks ahead of schedule [30][32]

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years, indicating robust economic momentum [1][5] - The growth follows a slight increase of 0.1% in Q1 2025, demonstrating a continuation of positive economic trends [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and trade led the supply-side growth, while household consumption and reduced imports contributed to demand-side growth [2] - Manufacturing output increased by 1.8%, driven by the automotive, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastics sectors [2] - Mining output rose by 3.7%, the fastest growth since Q1 2021, with platinum group metals, gold, and chrome contributing significantly [2] - The trade, accommodation, and food services sectors grew by 1.7%, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022 [2] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a third consecutive quarter of growth, supported by increased horticultural and livestock activities [2] Consumer Activity - Household consumption has shown consistent growth for five consecutive quarters, with a 0.8% increase in Q2 2025, fueled by spending in dining, hospitality, clothing, and insurance [2][4] - The retail trade, automotive trade, and food and beverage sectors also experienced growth, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [4] Challenges and Declines - Despite the overall growth, there were declines in demand for alcoholic beverages and housing-related services, as well as a drop in wholesale trade [3] - The construction sector contracted for the third consecutive quarter, with a decline of 0.3%, and transportation, storage, and communication sectors also saw a decrease of 0.8% [3] - Fixed capital investment fell by 1.4%, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline [3] Government Response and Outlook - The South African government views the Q2 2025 economic data as a sign of resilience amid global trade challenges, emphasizing the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating growth and supporting local industries [4][5] - Economic analysts predict a moderate acceleration in South Africa's economy, despite the low growth rate, indicating an overall improving trend [5]

另从周度数据来看，本周（9月11日至17日当周）全国生猪均价为13.62元／公斤，环比下跌2.06%，较 上周下跌0.29元／公斤。本周全国屠宰企业开工均率为32.63%，环比下跌0.82%，较上周下跌0.27个百 分点。 本周全国生猪均价进一步下行，创年内新低。供应端压力显著，出栏量环比上涨，市场猪源充裕；需求 端消费提振乏力，开学备货提振效果不及预期，白条走货滞缓未有改善。本周生猪市场在供应压力和消 费疲软的双重打压下弱势运行，市场观望情绪较重，预计下周猪价偏弱震汤。 编辑：吴郑思 另外，外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.51元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／ 公斤，低于平均调运成本0.55元／公斤。 综合分析，今日全国各省猪价普遍回落，创年内新低。供应端来看，集团场出栏积极性不减，需求端则 表现疲软，下游采购意愿一般，预计明日猪价继续下跌。 新华财经北京9月18日电 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年9月18日，31个省（自治区、直辖 市）外三元生猪价格0涨29跌2平，呈稳中下跌趋势。当天价格监测情况显示，全国生猪均价为13.32元 ／公斤，较昨日下跌0.09元／公斤。北京市 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

2025年9月8日 星期一 内蒙古鄂尔多斯市乌审旗坚持防沙治沙,植被覆盖度达80%以上 毛乌素沙地深处的绿色接力 因美丽中国 核心阅读 儿发扬调装在线 建 神、接续种树治沙,到利用 科技手段、提升治沙效率。 再到发展绿色产业、带动 群众增收 …… 在内蒙古鄂 尔多斯市乌审旗,一代代 治沙人不断巩固拓展治理 成果,书写着沙海变绿洲。 荒漠成良田的动人故事。 覆盖度达80%以上。当地正全力打好"三 北"工程黄河"几字弯"或坚战,努力创造新 时代防沙治沙新奇迹 接力治沙,乌审旗境内 毛乌素沙地治理率已达80% 露劣量象,从一张张老服片里走来 面对漫漫黄沙,上世纪五六十年代,当 F部空日動岱帶領广大干部群众,封田 10万亩流动沙丘,将近6万亩寸草不生的 荒漠变成葱郁的牧场。在前辈治沙故事的 劲下,乌审旗干部群众不断续写毛乌素 沙地"由黄变绿,由绿变富"的故事 在乌雷召懂布日标要查一处沙化土地 综合治理施工现场,乌那根布日都合作社优 费人袁广英和乡亲们正捡种杨桑。"周围盐 本上都变绿了,没治理的都是零星欧布的沙 梁,我们要发挥老一代治沙人的艰苦奋斗精 编,即故此硬骨头暗下来。"费广家设 在治沙现场,乌审召嘎查牧民教伦斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government of Dongying City is actively promoting agricultural development in Lijin County, focusing on resource utilization, brand building, and the enhancement of agricultural productivity through innovative practices and projects [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Development Strategies - Lijin County is leveraging its resource endowments and industrial foundation to enhance agricultural productivity, focusing on the development of a unique rural revitalization model [3]. - The county has established a "1+4" agricultural industry chain structure, emphasizing project layout along the chain, factor aggregation, and leveraging chain strengths to boost productivity [4]. - Key projects include the establishment of an embryo factory and the renovation of old breeding facilities, which support a comprehensive "breeding, raising, and selling" development model [4]. Group 2: Innovations in Crop Production - Lijin County is implementing a project to improve 40,536 acres of saline-alkali land, which has led to a 60% reduction in water usage and a 30% reduction in fertilizer usage, while also decreasing soil salinity from 5‰ to 2‰ [5]. - The introduction of new crop varieties, such as the salt-tolerant corn variety "Dongyu 5," has been prioritized, with high-value crops like Jerusalem artichokes and potatoes being cultivated in saline-alkali conditions [5]. Group 3: Brand Development and Market Positioning - The county is actively promoting its agricultural products through a brand-building strategy, resulting in several products being recognized as "nationally renowned special new agricultural products," accounting for 57% of the city's total [6]. - Notable products include "Tianhao brand Lijin bass," which has been included in the "2024 third batch of agricultural product memory index," and various organic products that have received certification [6].

Group 1 - The recognition of rural local experts in Guangdong Province for 2025 has officially started, focusing on enhancing agricultural production technology at the grassroots level to support high-quality agricultural development and increase farmers' income [4][5]. - The "Xinjiang Products Southward" event will take place in Guangzhou from September 28-30, showcasing high-quality products from Xinjiang to the Greater Bay Area [10][11]. - The "Green Food Promotion" event in Xiamen, themed "Green Food Boosts Consumption," featured high-quality agricultural products from Guangdong, attracting significant attention from buyers [26][28]. Group 2 - The establishment of modern high-standard farmland is emphasized in the agricultural development strategy, with new irrigation and drainage systems being implemented in areas like Shaoguan's Nanxiong City [30][31]. - The local economy in Longxian Town, Wengyuan County, is being supported through the cultivation of edible fungi, which is part of a broader rural revitalization initiative [15][19].

追热点输出观 点，"媒体+"培训 课打开"粤牧优 品"创新"密钥"_南 方+_南方plus 继前两期创造超 百万人在线学习 的浓厚氛围后，9 月17日，"我要 飞"——"媒体 ＋"赋能广东畜牧 产业高质量发展 培训第三期再掀 热度，吸引30多 万人在线参与学 习。 此次培训以"媒体 +"为核心抓手， 结合预制菜产 业、云端牧场等 热点案例，针对 品牌形象打造、 市场推广策略、 产业未来等关键 要点，展开了深 度研讨与实操培 训，打开了产业 高质量发展"密 钥"。广东畜牧产 品的焕新升级与 突围之路，引起 广泛热议。 培训课现场。 "媒体+"创造平台 开辟产品全链路传播路径 在当今数字化时 代，"媒体+"正以 其独特的力量为 广东畜牧产业的 发展注入新的活 力。"媒体+"不仅 仅是一种传播手 段，更是推动产 业升级、促进产 销对接、实现价 值重构的核心引 擎。 南方农村报"老阮说菜"负责人阮定国作《广东畜牧之预制菜晋级之路（一）》主题分享。 南方农村报"老阮 说菜"负责人阮定 国作《广东畜牧 之预制菜晋级之 路（一）》主题 分享，深入剖析 广东畜牧预制菜 的发展路径。他 认为，针对Z世代 特征，媒体在短 视频平 ...

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - In August, the national pig prices declined for four consecutive weeks, and the trend continues into September with a 10% increase in demand compared to the previous month, yet prices are still falling due to high supply and concentrated market releases [1][3] - The cost of pig farming in the region is approximately 7.1 yuan per kilogram, leading farmers to implement cost-cutting and refined management strategies to mitigate risks from low prices [5] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig price in the second week of September 2025 was 14.1 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 29.7% decrease year-on-year [7] Group 2: Seafood Industry - The first batch of seafood from the East China Sea has arrived at the port after the opening of the fishing season, with fresh catches being quickly transported to markets [8][10] - The seafood supply is expected to increase as the fishing season progresses, leading to a stable or declining price trend for common seafood varieties [12] - In Fujian Province, large yellow croaker is being harvested with an expected total yield of over 1,000 tons, supported by intelligent farming platforms that monitor water quality and provide real-time data [13][15][17] - In Jiangsu Province, the opening of fishing has resulted in a significant drop in seafood prices, with some varieties like crab and fish seeing price reductions of 30% to 50% compared to pre-season levels [18][21]