Group 1 - Copper prices have shown signs of strength recently, breaking through the 80,000 mark, but the sustainability of this rise is questioned due to high prices suppressing demand [1][6] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine globally, has faced production disruptions due to a natural disaster, leading to a significant downward revision in copper sales forecasts by Freeport [2][3] - The ongoing supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by previous disruptions in other major mines, highlighting the vulnerability of copper supply chains [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic copper smelting production is expected to decline due to tight raw material supplies and falling profits from by-products, indicating a shift in the production landscape [4][5] - Despite an increase in COMEX copper inventories, overall global copper stockpiles remain low, with limited accumulation in non-US regions, suggesting a tight supply environment [5][6] - The recent easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the tightening supply situation have created a favorable environment for copper prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][8]

Demand）为2，758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差（Balance）为26.7万吨，但料全球2026年精炼铜总产量预测为2，806.2万吨、2026年精炼铜总需求量为2，848.2万吨，即明年预测供 责任编辑：史丽君 Teniente矿山事故，以及秘鲁示威等因素，将进一步加剧短期矿山供应风险。该行原先预测2026年全球矿山供应增长约2%（50万吨），并已计入约5%的供应干扰；如今因应Grasberg指引调 过去2至3年，精炼铜供应增长持续超出矿山供应成长，导致铜精矿和废铜市场趋紧，但同时推迟了精炼市场的紧张状况，也因此抑制了铜价长期突破每吨1万美元的涨势。该行认为Grasberg矿 2026年铜精炼供应预测下调，将扩大精炼市场的供给缺口。虽然与关税相关的宏观不确定性及市场波动持续，中国铜需求仍展现韧性，电网与储能需求强劲，弥补了太阳能与家电需求在下半年 该行亦列出全球2025年精炼铜总产量（Total Refined Production）预测为2，785.3万吨、2025年精炼铜总需求量（Refined 瑞银发表报告表示，FCX因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区（全球第二大铜矿）地下出现矿难（大量 ...

铜矿石的短缺感正推高行情。电线、铜加工制品不可或缺的铜，其国际价格正在急剧上涨。国际基准价 9月24日一度上涨4%，2024年5月创下的历史最高价（每吨1万1104.5美元）已在望。此前一直受到关注 的矿石短缺问题，因全球最大级别铜矿发生事故而进一步引发市场关注。 作为铜国际基准价的伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期货，24日一度达到每吨1万364美元，创约1年4 个月来的新高。按收盘价计算的涨幅也是约5个半月以来最大。 铜矿石(资料图) "在短期内格拉斯伯格矿山无法恢复运作的情况下，铜价在矿石短缺背景下将继续保持坚挺走势"…… 铜矿石短缺忧虑加剧。中国铜冶炼产能扩张，矿石供应跟不上需求的声音不少。2023年，因环保破坏等 抗议，巴拿马的科布雷·巴拿马（Cobre Panamá）铜矿也被迫停产。市场风险顾问公司（Market Risk Advisory）联合代表新村直弘表示："在短期内格拉斯伯格矿山无法恢复运作的情况下，铜价在矿石短 缺背景下将继续保持坚挺走势"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 美国矿业巨头自由港 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发表报告表示，FCX因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区(全球第二大铜矿)地下出 现矿难(大量湿泥涌入矿洞且扩散至多层工作面)宣布暂时停产，FCX对今明两年铜产量降幅预测比市场 预期更大，这将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐观展望。瑞银表示，矿股重 点推荐Anglo American(NGLOY.US)、Teck Resources(TECK.US)及紫金矿业(02899)。 FCX提到，约80万吨湿物料突然涌入矿井，并快速向下流入多个作业层，Grasbergblock cave(GBC)区域 原本预计贡献Grasberg矿山2029年前的70%铜及黄金产量。本次事故发生于GBC五个开采分区之一，但 导致其他GBC生产区的基础设施也受损。FCX初步评估，多间生产将延后，预计2025年第四季仅少量产 出和销售;计划分阶段于2026年重启及逐步恢复生产，初步估计矿山铜产量将较此前指引下调约35%。 Grasberg预计2027年才能恢复至事故前估算产能。 瑞银指，Grasberg指引下调(约20万吨)再叠加今年Kamoa Kakula与El Teniente矿山事 ...

瑞银发表报告表示，美国矿业巨头自由港麦克莫兰公司因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区(全球第二大铜 矿)地下出现矿难(大量湿泥涌入矿洞且扩散至多层工作面)宣布暂时停产，公司对今明两年铜产量降幅预 测比市场预期更大，这将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐观展望。瑞银表 示，矿股重点推荐英美资源、泰克资源、Antofagasta及紫金矿业。该行亦列出全球2025年精炼铜总产量 预测为2785.3万吨、精炼铜总需求量为2758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差为26.7万吨；预计全球2026 年精炼铜总产量预测为2806.2万吨、精炼铜总需求量为2848.2万吨，即明年预测供需平衡差为负42.1万 吨；并估计2027年及2029年全球精炼铜预测供需平衡差分别为负51万吨、负75.6万吨及负122.4万吨。 ...

格隆汇9月25日｜瑞银发表报告表示，美国矿业巨头自由港麦克莫兰公司因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿 区(全球第二大铜矿)地下出现矿难(大量湿泥涌入矿洞且扩散至多层工作面)宣布暂时停产，公司对今明 两年铜产量降幅预测比市场预期更大，这将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐 观展望。 瑞银表示，矿股重点推荐英美资源、泰克资源、Antofagasta及紫金矿业。该行亦列出全球 2025年精炼铜总产量预测为2785.3万吨、精炼铜总需求量为2758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差为26.7 万吨；预计全球2026年精炼铜总产量预测为2806.2万吨、精炼铜总需求量为2848.2万吨，即明年预测供 需平衡差为负42.1万吨；并估计2027年及2029年全球精炼铜预测供需平衡差分别为负51万吨、负75.6万 吨及负122.4万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper price surged significantly due to the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, reaching a 15-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and reflecting a broader supply shortage in the global copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Grasberg Mine Suspension - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest gold and copper mines globally, has been officially suspended until mid-2026 due to a safety incident, with a phased restart expected and full production recovery anticipated by 2027 [1][2]. - The suspension is projected to reduce copper output by approximately 35% in 2026 compared to previous targets, equating to a direct supply decrease of about 270,000 tons in the global copper market [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the current global electrolytic copper inventory is at a relatively low historical level, suggesting limited supply chain buffer capacity, which could lead to more pronounced price reactions to any supply disruptions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that inventory sales may alleviate the immediate supply-demand imbalance, gradually raising the price center [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that the suspension of the Grasberg mine, along with other supply disruptions, could enhance the copper supply elasticity, making prices more susceptible to upward movements if demand increases [2][3]. - The Grasberg incident is viewed as a significant catalyst that may initiate a new medium to long-term upward cycle in copper prices, with potential for substantial price increases in the fourth quarter [3].

截至发稿，LME铜主力合约报10264美元/吨，小幅下跌0.51%。 隔夜沪铜期货主力合约盘中至82900元/吨，伦铜涨至10364美元/吨，双双创下年内新高。本月迄今伦铜上涨 3.56%，今年迄今上涨17.70%。 据外媒报道，美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，这座全球第二大 铜矿因事故暂停生产。公司预计2025年底完成事故调查，并将三季度铜销量预估下调4%，金销量下调6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in copper prices on September 24 was triggered by a significant production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a deadly landslide, leading to heightened global copper concentrate supply concerns [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Freeport-McMoRan, established in 1987 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, is a major player in copper, gold, and molybdenum production, with significant operations in North America, South America, and Indonesia [6]. - The Grasberg mine is one of the world's largest copper and gold mines, with copper reserves of 13.99 million tons and gold reserves of 818 tons, making it one of the lowest-cost copper mines globally [6][7]. Group 2: Incident Impact - The landslide at the Grasberg mine occurred on September 8, but the market did not react until later, with the mine's operations currently suspended and five miners still missing [3][22]. - Freeport anticipates a 35% reduction in production at the Grasberg mine by 2026 compared to previous estimates, exacerbating the already tight global copper supply situation [3][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations of a supply shortfall of 30,000 tons next year, influenced by the Grasberg incident and other geopolitical factors [15][16]. - The processing fees for copper concentrates have dropped significantly, indicating a tightening supply, with current TC fees around negative $40 per dry ton, compared to positive values in the previous year [22][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global copper market faces challenges due to diminishing high-quality copper resources and slow progress in exploring and developing new mines, which could lead to persistent supply shortages [24][26]. - The Grasberg incident highlights the vulnerability of copper supply chains, particularly in underdeveloped regions where mining operations are often subject to accidents and labor disputes [24][25].

消息面上，矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山近期发生致命泥石流事故，推动全球铜 价大幅上涨并引发供应链担忧。这座全球第二大铜矿因事故暂停生产，公司已启动不可抗力条款，预计 2026年铜金产量或骤降35%。据财通证券（601108），中国中冶巴基斯坦锡亚迪克铜矿铜资源量378万 吨，2025年上半年巴基斯坦相关审批程序已全部申请并基本获批，国内相关审批程序正在进行，公司将 持续推进项目开发前期各项工作；阿富汗艾娜克铜矿是世界上已探明但尚未开发的特大型铜矿床之一， 目前项目整体资源量达1236万吨。 中国中冶（601618）(01618)涨超7%，截至发稿，涨7.27%，报2.36港元，成交额1.18亿港元。 中信建投（601066）证券近期研报指出，公司铜矿开发进展积极有望获重估。铜金属价格长期受供需缺 口、短期受美联储降息预期影响有望进入上涨周期，公司持有的多个海外在产矿山估值将迎来重估。公 司持有的阿富汗艾娜克铜矿重启前期工作进展积极，配套水电站已进入建设阶段，购入的巴基斯坦锡亚 迪克铜矿项目储量经勘探有所增加，前期工作积极推进，两铜矿有望带来丰厚的净利润。 ...