Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tailings dam collapse incident at China Nonferrous Mining's subsidiary in Zambia has drawn media attention, but the company asserts that the impact on its annual production is limited due to the small scale of the project and ongoing production suspension [1][6]. Group 1: Incident Details - On February 18, a tailings dam at the Zambia-based subsidiary collapsed due to theft of a waterproof membrane and heavy rainfall, leading to some tailings leakage [3]. - The company has complied with government directives for repair and compensation, and is working closely with the Zambian government on environmental assessments and remediation [3][4]. - A petition was filed by over a hundred local residents demanding $80 billion for environmental restoration, which the company claims lacks basis [3][4]. Group 2: Production Impact - The affected subsidiary has been suspended since the incident, with production of cathode copper dropping by 73.3% to 755 tons in the first half of 2025, and production of crude copper and anode copper down by 42.4% to 1,540 tons [5]. - The overall impact on China Nonferrous Mining's annual production is considered limited due to the small output of the affected project [6]. Group 3: Government Response - The Zambian government has stated that the situation has returned to normal, with no significant health issues reported related to the pollution incident [4]. - Laboratory tests indicate that water quality has improved, with pH levels normalizing and heavy metal concentrations decreasing [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company had established risk management protocols prior to the incident, including environmental management systems and emergency response plans [7]. - Experts suggest that the company’s approach reflects a need for improved preemptive risk management rather than reactive measures after incidents occur [8]. Group 5: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Chinese mining companies overseas, including theft and accidents, are not uncommon, highlighting the need for enhanced ESG governance and risk awareness [9].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, attributed to its ownership of high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with expectations for further price appreciation in the next 30 days according to Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1: Company Assets - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The company is diversifying its portfolio with assets in Brazil (niobium and phosphate) and China (molybdenum and tungsten), creating a counter-cyclical resource combination [1] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - The acquisition of the Ecuador KGH gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource base, with production anticipated to start before 2029, yielding an annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended to October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could reach approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

该行指，刚果民主共和国宣布将钴出口禁令延长至10月15日，随后将实施出口配额，2026至2027年配额 将为正常产量的40%。大摩表示，假设洛阳钼业能获得与国家层面相似的配额比例，其潜在销售量可能 在2025年第四季为约8,600吨，在2026至2027年为约4.36万吨，预期钴供应将受到重大影响，因为刚果民 主共和国占全球供应的70%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，相信洛阳钼业(03993)未来30日内股价将绝对上涨，估计此 情境有约70%至80%(或非常可能)的概率，维持"增持"评级及目标价11.7港元，此按现金流折现率作估 值。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993) will see an absolute increase in stock price within the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, its potential sales volume could reach approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027, with significant impacts expected on cobalt supply due to the DRC accounting for 70% of global supply [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Zijin Mining achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.29 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.41%, with Q2 alone contributing 13.125 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.1% [1] - The company's copper and gold business has seen both volume and price increases, serving as a key driver for performance growth [1] - The report anticipates that Zijin Mining will continue to ramp up production in H2 2025, particularly in gold output, which is expected to sustain performance growth [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the U.S. economic downturn have been raised due to declining employment data, leading to a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range announced by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 [1] - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit metals such as gold and copper, potentially leading to price increases [1] - The report has adjusted the pricing and sales volume forecasts for gold and copper, as well as increased the expense ratio, resulting in a target price of 31.79 yuan based on a 17X PE valuation for comparable companies, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - On September 19, 2023, Baiyin Nonferrous reported a financing buy of 21.74 million yuan and a financing repayment of 35.72 million yuan, resulting in a net financing repayment of 13.98 million yuan [2] - On September 10, 2023, Baiyin Nonferrous announced that it received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding a case of suspected information disclosure violations, leading to an official investigation [2] - Investors who suffered losses due to the company's delayed or inaccurate information disclosure can file for compensation if they purchased shares between April 30, 2020, and April 29, 2025, or between the company's listing and September 10, 2025 [2] Group 2 - On April 2, 2024, Baiyin Nonferrous announced progress on the acquisition of mining company equity, specifically the 100% stake in Serrote Participações S.A. and AMH 2 (Jersey) Limited [3] - The acquisition was completed on April 1, 2025, after obtaining necessary regulatory approvals, with the target companies becoming wholly-owned subsidiaries of Baiyin Nonferrous [4] - Following the acquisition, the company's copper metal resource volume is expected to increase from 221,700 tons to approximately 930,000 tons, significantly enhancing its resource reserves and profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.053 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.91%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.058 billion yuan, also up 41.12% quarter-on-quarter. The interim dividend was approximately 1.569 billion yuan, accounting for 87% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2][4] Summary by Sections Copper Segment - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a copper production of 92,800 tons and sales of 92,700 tons, generating revenue of 7.562 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.166 billion yuan. The company’s investment income from its 30.78% stake in Giant Dragon Copper was 1.264 billion yuan, contributing 70.22% to the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year increase of 4.09 billion yuan, or 47.82% [5] Lithium Segment - The company produced 5,170 tons of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with sales of 4,470 tons, down 41% year-on-year. The average selling price (including tax) was 67,470 yuan per ton, while the average sales cost was 41,478 yuan per ton. The revenue from lithium carbonate was 267 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.90%, with a gross margin of 30.53%, down 19.75 percentage points year-on-year [5] Potassium Segment - The company produced 485,200 tons of potassium chloride in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with sales of 535,900 tons, down 1% year-on-year. The average selling price (including tax) was 2,845 yuan per ton, an increase of 25.57% year-on-year. The average sales cost was 996 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year. Consequently, the revenue from potassium chloride was 1.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.60%, with a gross margin of 61.84%, up 13.56 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the development potential of the three major business segments—copper, lithium, and potassium—remains promising. The second phase of the Giant Dragon project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with projected copper production reaching 92,000 to 108,000 tons. The long-term plan for the Giant Dragon project aims for a capacity of 600,000 tons, significantly enhancing profitability. Additionally, the accelerated development of the Tibet salt lake project is anticipated to inject potential lithium resources into the company’s future growth [7]

Overview - The company Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. plans to apply for a bank loan of RMB 100 million from Hengfeng Bank, with its wholly-owned subsidiary, Baoshan Mining, providing a guarantee of RMB 50 million for the loan [2][8]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The guarantee is a joint liability guarantee, with a term of 12 months starting from the date of contract signing [7]. - The guarantee agreement has not yet been signed, and the company will formalize the agreement after completing internal procedures [2][7]. Group 2: Company Information - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. was established on November 8, 2004, with a registered capital of RMB 2,823.09 million [3]. - The company operates in the production and sale of high-purity silver and related products, as well as engaging in the import and export of goods and technology [3]. Group 3: Financial Situation - As of December 31, 2024, the company reported total assets of RMB 5,520.71 million, total liabilities of RMB 2,230.86 million, and net assets of RMB 3,289.85 million [4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company had total assets of RMB 6,707.42 million, total liabilities of RMB 3,346.00 million, and net assets of RMB 3,361.42 million, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.89% [4]. Group 4: Credit Status - The company is not listed as a dishonest executor [5]. Group 5: Existing Guarantees - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the parent company amount to RMB 98 million, while the total guarantees provided by subsidiaries to each other amount to RMB 200 million [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining's recent tailings dam collapse incident in Zambia has drawn renewed attention, with the company clarifying allegations made by the media regarding the incident [1][5]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The tailings dam collapse at the Zambia Chambishi Hydrometallurgical Company occurred on February 18, 2025, due to a combination of factors including theft of the impermeable membrane and heavy rainfall, which was the highest in nearly 20 years for that period [5]. - The company has stated that the breach was effectively controlled by February 19, and it has complied with local government directives for remediation and compensation to affected farmers [5][6]. - A recent media report indicated that over 100 local residents filed a petition demanding the establishment of an environmental restoration fund of $80 billion (approximately 624 billion HKD) managed by the Zambian government [5]. Group 2: Production Impact - The company is currently not in production due to the incident, but the overall impact on annual production is considered limited as the affected project has a small output [3][7]. - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 11.13 million tons of crude copper and anode copper, a decrease of 30.4% year-on-year, while cathode copper production increased by 15.6% to 7.22 million tons [8]. Group 3: Government Response and Environmental Assessment - The Zambian government has stated that the situation has largely returned to normal, with no significant health issues or deaths reported related to the pollution incident [8]. - The local government has been actively responding to the incident, and laboratory tests have shown that water quality has returned to normal levels [7][8]. Group 4: Risk Management and ESG Practices - The company had previously established risk management protocols for tailings dam safety and environmental management, as noted in its 2024 ESG report [9][10]. - The company is facing climate risks such as extreme flooding and has implemented measures like drainage systems to mitigate these risks [10]. Group 5: Expert Analysis - Experts have pointed out that the company's handling of the incident reflects a need for improved risk awareness among Chinese enterprises operating overseas, emphasizing the importance of proactive risk management rather than reactive measures [11][12].