Core Viewpoint - Haohua Energy's stock has experienced a decline of 6.20% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 2.02% on September 22, 2023, indicating potential challenges in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Haohua Energy reported a revenue of 4.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 448 million yuan, down 47.82% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, Haohua Energy has distributed 4.351 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.653 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Haohua Energy decreased by 7.08% to 36,800, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 7.62% to 39,122 shares [2]. - The stock's trading activity on September 22 showed a net outflow of 8.266 million yuan from main funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Business Overview - Haohua Energy, established on December 31, 2002, and listed on March 31, 2010, primarily engages in coal production and sales (87.33% of revenue), methanol production and sales (10.39%), and railway transportation [1]. - The company operates within the coal mining sector, specifically focusing on thermal coal, and is associated with various investment concepts such as coal chemical and mid-cap stocks [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases in coal [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply situation and strong pre-holiday inventory demand, predicting that coal prices will continue to rise [1][3]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 10.27% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also saw a rise of 14.21% [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the expected price increases for thermal coal and coking coal, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report notes significant coal resource discoveries in Anhui province, which are crucial for strategic reserves [9]. - The report mentions the successful launch of a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, expected to be operational by 2027 [5]. Price Movements - As of September 19, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 27, and 24 CNY/ton respectively [3][10]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported at 1510 CNY/ton for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased by 0.89% week-on-week, totaling 22.5 million tons [3][22]. - The report indicates that the overall supply from production areas remains tight due to capacity checks, affecting recovery rates [3][10]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs increased by 19.91% week-on-week, averaging 35.53 CNY/ton [3][31]. - International shipping rates showed mixed trends, with Indonesian coal prices slightly decreasing [3][31]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [3][36]. - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating their market performance [3][36].

Core Viewpoint - Jin控煤业's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced an overall increase of 8.48% year-to-date, indicating volatility in the coal industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jin控煤业 reported operating revenue of 5.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 876 million yuan, down 39.01% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.083 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.640 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 22, Jin控煤业's stock was trading at 14.01 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 23.449 billion yuan and a trading volume of 321 million yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 24.036 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several mutual funds, with notable changes in shareholding among these entities [3]. - The number of shareholders has increased to 57,000, while the average circulating shares per person have decreased by 2.17% [2].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] - In July 2025, China's exports of coke and semi-coke reached 890,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $14.4 million, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% [1] Industry Analysis - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the coal mining industry's market potential and operational trends in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

Market Performance - On September 22, the market indices experienced a slight decline, with a total trading volume of 2.35 trillion, down 820 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The market showed resilience despite the drop, with technology sectors like semiconductors and communication computing showing minor declines[1] - The coal and non-ferrous metal sectors saw significant gains, indicating stable market sentiment[1] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor, communication computing, and new energy sectors maintained upward momentum, while the robotics sector faced a larger pullback[1] - Recent developments in the tech sector, including Nvidia's investment in Intel and Huawei's AI chip plans, suggest a strengthening trend towards domestic chip production[1] Fund Flow - On September 19, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a net outflow of 13.916 billion, while the Shenzhen Composite Index had a net inflow of 6.262 billion[3] Economic Policies - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, announced support for community commercial infrastructure projects through REITs to enhance basic living standards[4] - The Japanese central bank indicated that a loose monetary policy environment will support economic recovery despite external challenges[7] Industry Developments - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo resulted in over 400 intended orders, including a significant deal for 500 eVTOL aircraft worth 1.75 billion USD[8] - The domestic aluminum oxide industry is accelerating lithium extraction projects, with production costs for lithium carbonate ranging from 40,000 to 80,000 CNY per ton[11]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and adjustment, with major indices showing mixed performance [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors are automotive (-1.94%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.41%), and computer technology (-1.26%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices are photolithography (+2.09%), civil explosives (+1.70%), and lithium extraction from salt lakes (+1.10%) [3] - The lagging concept indices include reducers (-2.68%), PEEK materials (-2.65%), and humanoid robots (-2.17%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a long-term upward momentum despite short-term volatility due to profit-taking [5] - The report suggests a flexible positioning strategy, avoiding high-risk investments while focusing on sectors with favorable valuation and growth prospects, such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, banking, and TMT [5]

Group 1 - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has been operating at a low level this year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9% year-on-year in August, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery [1] - The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated macro policy system to achieve price stability, suggesting a combination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, and regulatory policies [2] - The report recommends setting a long-term average inflation target of 2% for CPI growth, aligning with global standards for price stability and reflecting China's transition from an industrial to a consumer economy [1][2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy has shown initial effectiveness, becoming a key measure for structural adjustment in the Chinese economy, with expectations for policy continuity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Structural reforms in income distribution, social security, and the establishment of a unified market are proposed to release institutional dividends and enhance consumer expectations [3] - The report highlights the importance of aligning macro policies with reform plans to create a cohesive policy framework that supports market and price stability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to non-electric demand and winter stockpiling, with significant price increases observed in various coal indices as of September 19, 2025 [10][11]. - The report notes a slight recovery in the coking coal market, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream steel companies, although further price increases may be limited [10]. - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains strong, with expectations of continued price strength in the short term, despite potential constraints from rising prices affecting purchasing enthusiasm [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - As of September 19, 2025, the price indices for various coal types have shown significant weekly increases, with the Yulin 5800 index at 598.0 CNY/ton (+44.0 CNY), the Ordos 5500 index at 521.0 CNY/ton (+19.0 CNY), and the Datong 5500 index at 576.0 CNY/ton (+21.0 CNY) [10]. - The coking coal market has stabilized, with prices for major coking coal indices also showing increases, such as the Shanxi main coking coal at 1610 CNY/ton (+60 CNY) [10]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining index increased by 3.77% while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, indicating a relative outperformance of coal stocks [11]. - Major coal companies have shown varied performance, with significant gains for companies like Yongtai Energy (+13.42%) and Luan Environmental Energy (+13.04%) [11]. 3. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key coal companies, including China Shenhua (total market value: 755.35 billion CNY, PE: 12.9), Shaanxi Coal (total market value: 200.88 billion CNY, PE: 9.0), and others, indicating a range of valuations and expected profitability [42].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "emotional heat" to track the sentiment of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of different broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[12][15] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 32.7% in 2025[15] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts: a "TOP" portfolio consisting of the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat in the hottest concepts, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio consisting of the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat in the hottest concepts[29] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 40.9% in 2025[31] - The "Total Heat Index" for broad-based indices includes the heat of the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices, as well as an "others" group for stocks not included in these indices[8][9] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the main broad-based indices shows that the CSI 500 had the highest increase of 3.33%, while the CSI 300 had the largest decrease of 4.11%[15] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the Shenwan primary industries shows that the real estate industry had the highest increase of 48.8%, while the defense industry had the largest decrease of -31.0%[26] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the Shenwan secondary industries shows that the top 5 industries with the highest positive change rates are house construction II, film and cinema, paper, coal mining, and home appliance parts II[26] - The weekly heat change rate for concepts shows that the top 5 concepts with the highest positive change rates are house inspection, underground pipelines, car dismantling, prefabricated buildings, and Shanghai state-owned enterprise reform[27][29] - The current valuation historical percentiles (rolling 5 years) for the main broad-based indices are 81% for the CSI 300, 99% for the CSI 500, and 94% for the CSI 1000[36] - The Shenwan primary industries with current valuations above the 80th historical percentile include power equipment, electronics, computers, light manufacturing, defense, pharmaceuticals, retail, building materials, banking, coal, and basic chemicals[37] - The Shenwan secondary industries with current valuations above the 80th historical percentile include chemical pharmaceuticals, aerospace equipment, wind power equipment, steel raw materials, biological products, semiconductors, large state-owned banks, environmental protection equipment, general retail, airports, components, clothing and textiles, automotive services, tourism and scenic spots, commercial vehicles, rubber, building materials, real estate services, professional chains, diversified finance, animal health, electronic chemicals, optical and optoelectronics, chemical fibers, digital media, other electronics, glass and fiberglass, automation equipment, and games[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The port coal price has increased due to pre-holiday stockpiling, with the current price at 704 RMB/ton, up by 24 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average daily inflow of 1.4861 million tons, down by 127,400 tons or 7.90% from the previous week [1] - Demand has also weakened, with a daily outflow of 1.5383 million tons, down by 45,100 tons or 2.85% week-on-week [1] - The total inventory in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased to 20.61 million tons, down by 207,700 tons or 9.16% from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to seasonal demand fluctuations and decreasing temperatures [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,820.09 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 2.16% to 2,735.68 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector reached 73.185 billion RMB, an increase of 91.54% from the previous week [10] Production and Pricing - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 37 RMB/ton to 597 RMB/ton [18] - The international coal price index has shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price down by 6.67 USD/ton to 101.11 USD/ton [20] Inventory and Shipping - The average daily shipping volume in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with a total inventory reduction indicating a tightening supply situation [28][31] - Domestic shipping costs have increased by 19.91%, now averaging 35.53 RMB/ton [33] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and market elasticity [35]