Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, has experienced a decline in stock price but reported a 19% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by low oil prices and recovering demand for downstream chemical products [2][5]. Performance Disclosure Highlights - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit increased by 19%, attributed to low oil prices supporting operational costs and a recovery in demand and prices for some downstream chemical products [2][5]. - The company anticipates that oil prices will continue to stabilize at current levels, benefiting raw material cost support [2]. - The company plans to dynamically optimize product structure, adjust pricing based on market trends, and improve inventory turnover to ensure stable development [2]. Institutional Research Highlights - During the performance briefing on May 20, the company emphasized its commitment to sustainable development in the petrochemical industry, focusing on safety, integrity, innovation, and excellence [3]. - The company is advancing its industrial chain towards high-end, digital, and low-carbon development, contributing to high-quality industry growth [3]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company has developed photovoltaic-grade EVA and POE, with a current EVA production capacity of 500,000 tons per year and a POE facility expected to be operational by 2025 [3]. - The company holds a leading position in EVA production capacity and market share, benefiting from economies of scale in production and a strong integrated supply chain for upstream raw materials [3]. Company Announcement Summary - The announcement regarding the "Shenghong Convertible Bond" buyback indicated that only 19 units were effectively submitted for buyback, amounting to 1,904.86 yuan, which will not materially affect the company's financial status or operational capabilities [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refining industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in the company's performance in Q1 2025. The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, and a non-recurring net profit of 618 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 736.04% [6][38] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 352.59 billion yuan, 370.22 billion yuan, and 388.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan, and 6.26 billion yuan respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is 0.19 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 45.0, 21.4, and 14.1 times [6][39] Summary by Sections 1. Refining Industry Recovery - The crude oil cracking margin reached a low point in Q4 2024 but stabilized and began to recover in 2025. The average cracking margin was 1,231 yuan/ton in Q4 2024 and increased to 1,452 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, with further improvement expected in Q2 2025 [16][39] 2. Policy Impact on Fuel Oil - New policies regarding fuel oil have been introduced, including an increase in the import tax rate from 1% to 3% starting January 1, 2025. This is expected to increase processing costs for companies reliant on imported fuel oil, potentially leading to a gradual exit of marginal refining capacity from the industry [7][28] 3. Company’s Integrated Operations - Rongsheng Petrochemical is a leading producer of polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins. The company has a globally leading integrated refining capacity, processing 40 million tons of crude oil annually. Strategic cooperation with Saudi Aramco has further solidified its market position [31][34] 4. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2025 downwards while introducing new forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The expected revenue and net profit figures indicate a strong recovery trajectory for the company, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refining industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in the company's performance in Q1 2025. The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, and a non-recurring net profit of 618 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 736.04% [6][38] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 352.59 billion yuan, 370.22 billion yuan, and 388.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan, and 6.26 billion yuan respectively. The expected EPS for the same period is 0.19 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 45.0, 21.4, and 14.1 times [6][39] Summary by Sections 1. Refining Industry Recovery - The refining industry's profitability is on the rise, with the crude oil cracking margin stabilizing and improving from a low point in Q4 2024. The average cracking margin was 1,231 yuan/ton in Q4 2024 and increased to 1,452 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, with further improvement expected in Q2 2025 [16][28] 2. Policy Impact on Fuel Oil - Recent policies regarding fuel oil, including an increase in import tariffs and changes in consumption tax deductions, are expected to pressure marginal refining capacities, leading to a gradual exit of less efficient players from the market. This could enhance the profitability of remaining players [7][28][29] 3. Company’s Integrated Operations - Rongsheng Petrochemical is a leading producer in polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins. The company has a globally leading integrated refining capacity, processing 40 million tons of crude oil annually, and has strengthened its market position through strategic partnerships, particularly with Saudi Aramco [31][34] 4. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting the current oil prices and refining industry conditions. The company is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, supported by its comprehensive product matrix and cost control capabilities [39][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The petrochemical industry is under pressure in 2024, with the company waiting for a recovery in industry conditions [3] - The company achieved operating revenue of 326.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.4% to 0.72 billion yuan [6][20] - The company is expanding its new materials product matrix with multiple new projects coming online, which is expected to enhance product value [10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 74.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of main products [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 0.59 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04 billion yuan year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 343.0 billion yuan, 359.9 billion yuan, and 373.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.738 billion yuan, 4.592 billion yuan, and 6.226 billion yuan [10][12] Product Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from refining products was 117.9 billion yuan, down 3.31% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 17.6%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points [6] - Chemical products revenue was 121.8 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points [6] - The polyester film segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%, driven by the production of a new multifunctional polyester chip project [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the private refining sector, continuously investing in new materials projects to enhance product value and sustain growth [10] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected PE ratio of 32, 19, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting its growth potential [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profitability [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down significantly, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] - The report anticipates a steady increase in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.02 billion yuan, 2.99 billion yuan, and 3.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.42 yuan [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profit margins [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026, down from 7.1% from 2017 to 2023 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase by 18% in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons, indicating a positive market outlook [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, suggesting a more favorable competitive environment for larger manufacturers [7]

石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 5 月 12 日 000301.SZ 增持 | 流通股 (百万) | 6,608.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 59,699.34 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 115.59 | | 主要股东 | | | 江苏盛虹科技股份有限公司 | 43.24% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 5 月 9 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《东方盛虹》20240514 《东方盛虹》20231120 《东方盛虹》20230816 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 石油石化：炼化及贸易 证券分析师：徐中良 | (8621)20328516 | | --- | | zhongliang.xu@bocichina.com | | 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300524050001 | 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.03 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 12.9 12.7 3.4 (10.0) 相对深 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its operating performance and continues to provide high dividends [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth driven by multiple projects, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 236.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.044 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [4] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 22.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin was 9.9%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.04 percentage points to 3.0% [4] Segment Performance - In 2024, revenue from refining products was 108.1 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.1% [4] - PTA revenue was 68.1 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 3.4% [4] - New materials revenue increased by 22% year-on-year to 41.8 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 14.1% [4] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 248.5 billion yuan in 2025, 264 billion yuan in 2026, and 276.3 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - Net profit is expected to reach 8.742 billion yuan in 2025, 9.735 billion yuan in 2026, and 11.540 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The projected P/E ratios are 12 for 2025, 11 for 2026, and 9 for 2027 [9] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 3.168 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 45% [7] - The focus will shift towards optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing dividends following the peak of capital expenditures [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 优于大市 一季度净利同环比提升，涤纶长丝供需有望改善 公司2024年及2025年一季度归母净利润同比提升。公司2024年营收1013.1 亿元（同比+22.6%），归母净利润 12.0 亿元（同比+50.8%）；2025 年一季 度营收 194.2 亿元（同比-8.0%，环比-23.1%），归母净利润 6.1 亿元（同 比+5.4%，环比+213.0%），2024 年及 2025 年一季度归母净利均有提升。 2024 年公司主营产品涤纶长丝销量提升。公司涤纶长丝产能 1350 万吨，国 内份额超28%。2024 年公司涤纶长丝POY/FDY/DTY 销量 968/214/112 万吨（同 比+23%/+46%/+13%），新产能贡献增量，销量同比提升。2025 年一季度公司 涤纶长丝 POY/FDY/DTY 销量 181/45/24 万吨（同比-7%/+8%/+4%，环比 -30%/-23%/-23%），一季度受春节假期及传统纺织行业淡季影响，下游服装、 家纺企业开工率阶段性回落，终端需求疲软致销量环比下滑。 涤纶长丝单吨售价及成本同比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 优于大市 一季度净利同环比提升，涤纶长丝供需有望改善 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 石油石化·炼化及贸易 公司2024年及2025年一季度归母净利润同比提升。公司2024年营收1013.1 亿元（同比+22.6%），归母净利润 12.0 亿元（同比+50.8%）；2025 年一季 度营收 194.2 亿元（同比-8.0%，环比-23.1%），归母净利润 6.1 亿元（同 比+5.4%，环比+213.0%），2024 年及 2025 年一季度归母净利均有提升。 2024 年公司主营产品涤纶长丝销量提升。公司涤纶长丝产能 1350 万吨，国 内份额超28%。2024 年公司涤纶长丝POY/FDY/DTY 销量 968/214/112 万吨（同 比+23%/+46%/+13%），新产能贡献增量，销量同比提升。2025 年一季度公司 涤纶长丝 POY/FDY/DTY 销量 181/45/24 万吨（同比-7%/+8%/+4%，环比 -30%/-23%/-23%），一季度受春节假期及传统纺织行业淡季影 ...