Group 1 - Guinea's bauxite exports surged by 23% year-on-year in Q3, reaching 39.41 million tons, despite challenges from heavy rainfall and regulatory hurdles [1] - The average monthly shipment volume for Q3 was 13.14 million tons, which is nearly a 19% decrease compared to the first half of the year due to disruptions in mining and port operations [1] - China accounted for 54.6% of Guinea's bauxite exports in Q3, with Guinea supplying about one-third of China's bauxite imports [1] Group 2 - The long-delayed Simandou iron ore project is set to make its first shipment, primarily of high-grade ore destined for China [1] - In Q3 2025, Guinea exported only 78,000 tons of alumina, as the government increased pressure on miners to build alumina refineries domestically [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing negotiation between BHP and China's newly formed China Mineral Resources Group highlights a significant shift in iron ore pricing and settlement currency, with China pushing for a more favorable pricing model and the use of RMB instead of USD [1][3][15]. Pricing Dispute - BHP aims to increase its iron ore price to $109.5 per ton by 2025, while China Mineral Resources Group insists on a quarterly pricing model closer to market rates, approximately $80 per ton, indicating a nearly $30 difference per ton [1]. - China's annual iron ore imports exceed ten billion tons, suggesting a potential loss of over $20 billion if the price dispute continues [1]. Currency Settlement - The negotiation has evolved beyond mere pricing to a financial confrontation over the settlement currency, with China demanding RMB while BHP insists on USD [3]. - China's recent directive to halt the acceptance of BHP's iron ore priced in USD demonstrates a strategic move to assert its position in the market [5][6]. Market Dynamics - China's dominance in global iron ore consumption, accounting for over 75% of maritime iron ore, has historically left it without pricing power due to fragmented negotiations among numerous steel mills [8]. - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group consolidates purchasing power, allowing for a more unified approach in negotiations with major mining companies [8]. Strategic Developments - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which holds the world's largest undeveloped iron ore reserves, is a critical asset for China, expected to produce over 100 million tons of high-quality ore annually once operational [10]. - The project is currently on hold due to a serious safety incident, raising concerns about its impact on China's strategic plans and negotiations with BHP [12]. Financial Implications - The recent safety incident at Simandou has led to a rise in international iron ore futures prices, easing pressure on BHP while complicating China's negotiation strategy [13]. - China's push for RMB settlement in iron ore trade aims to reduce reliance on USD, with significant progress already made in agreements with other countries like Russia and Brazil [15][19]. Pricing Index Challenge - China is challenging the Platts Index, which has historically dictated iron ore pricing, by launching its own iron ore price index based on actual transaction data from Chinese ports [17][19]. - This move is part of a broader strategy to establish a new pricing mechanism that reflects real supply and demand rather than manipulated market prices [17][19]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent setbacks, China's position as the largest buyer of iron ore remains unchanged, and its commitment to diversifying supply chains and promoting RMB internationalization is steadfast [21]. - The ongoing developments indicate a transformative period in global trade dynamics, with potential shifts in iron ore pricing and settlement practices on the horizon [21].

Core Viewpoint - Australia’s BHP will settle iron ore trades in RMB, marking China’s first acquisition of iron ore pricing power and successfully lowering iron ore prices [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - China Mineral Resources Group has signed an agreement with BHP to implement RMB settlement for iron ore spot trades starting as early as Q4 of this year [1]. - This agreement signifies a shift in pricing power, allowing China to reduce its reliance on USD for iron ore transactions [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historically, the USD has dominated global commodity pricing, with iron ore trade exceeding $1.2 trillion annually, 80% of which is settled in USD [3]. - Chinese companies have faced significant risks from exchange rate fluctuations and reliance on USD clearing channels [3]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - Following a breakdown in negotiations with BHP, China ordered major steel mills and traders to halt purchases of BHP's iron ore priced in USD, marking the first ban on Australian iron ore imports [3]. - BHP's acceptance of RMB settlement is seen as a result of China's concentrated procurement strategy, which has increased its bargaining power [3][4]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Other major iron ore producers, including Brazil's Vale and Australia's Rio Tinto, have also agreed to RMB settlements, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization in commodity trading [4]. - The agreement with BHP is expected to enhance China's economic security and accelerate the internationalization of the RMB [4].

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 42 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3144.10 万吨，环比增 368.30 万吨，持续回升并刷新年内单周新高；其中澳矿 到货环比增 167.00 万吨，巴西矿到货增 95.20 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 106.10 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运有所回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3207.50 万吨，环比降 71.54 万吨，高位持续小幅回 落。其中澳洲发运环比降 63.56 万吨，多因 RIO 发运减 124.45 万吨所致，巴西矿发运降 31.30 万吨，非澳 巴矿发运环比增 23.32 万吨，低位有所回升； 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，整体降幅有限，海外矿石供应维持高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has successfully gained pricing power over iron ore, marking a significant shift in the global iron ore market dynamics [1][3][18] Group 1: Background and Context - The struggle for iron ore pricing power between China and Australia has been ongoing for four years, with China being the largest iron ore importer globally [3][5] - Historically, Australia has dominated iron ore pricing, leading to perceived unfairness in international trade, especially given the significant dollar-denominated transactions [3][5] Group 2: Recent Developments - In August 2023, a major disagreement arose between Chinese and Australian companies regarding the pricing and currency for iron ore transactions, with China demanding RMB settlement and a price benchmark of $80 per ton [5][12] - Following the breakdown of negotiations, China announced a suspension of all iron ore imports from Australia's BHP, marking a significant escalation in the trade conflict [6][9] Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China's current high inventory levels and reduced domestic demand for iron ore provide it with leverage, allowing it to pause imports without immediate concern [9][11] - Other suppliers, such as Brazil's Vale and Australia's Fortescue Metals Group, are willing to accept RMB for transactions, further strengthening China's position [11][12] Group 4: Outcome and Implications - BHP has since agreed to settle iron ore trades in RMB starting from the fourth quarter, indicating a significant concession [12][14] - This shift means that approximately 70% of global iron ore trade will now be conducted in RMB, effectively granting China greater control over pricing [14][18] - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group has facilitated a unified procurement strategy, allowing China to negotiate from a position of strength [15][17] Group 5: Future Outlook - The successful negotiation is seen as a precursor to China potentially reclaiming pricing power over other commodities, challenging the dominance of the U.S. in global commodity pricing [18][20]

国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 铁矿石周度观点 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观风偏显著回调，估值承压 | | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 条 目 全球发货量 | 当周值 3279 | 0 | 环 比 -196 | 4 | 同 比 297 | 8 | 全球发货 | 40W2025 123475 | 1 | 40W2024 122196 | 7 | 累计同比 1278 | 4 | 1 | 累计同比% 0% | | | | 澳发货量 | 1902 | . 3 . | . -45 . | 4 | . 136 . | 7 | 澳发货 ...

现在，对以色列的反制，实际上是在削弱美国在中东的霸权根基。中东国家已经清楚地认识到，美国在犹太势力的深度影响下，内外政策越来越不顾及长远 利益。即便是有2万美军驻扎的国家，也能被以色列反复轰炸。沙特、阿联酋等"有钱无兵"的国家，单靠美国的安全承诺已经不再安全可靠。随着犹太势力 愈加肆无忌惮，伦理道德和国际法则都被忽视，寻找一个更可靠的新伙伴，成为了中东国家的明智之选。 对中国来说，这一切意味着，只要削弱美国的国际信用，就等于为人民币国际化铺平道路。将美国的影响力赶出中东，打破"美国无敌"的神话，中国就有机 会争取到全球货币的主导权。 这场博弈从来都不是单一领域的较量，而是军事、文化、外交等多方面的"组合拳"。特朗普对此选择沉默，而埃及部署红旗-9导弹后，以色列除了嘴上愤怒 外，实际上没有采取行动。像埃及、沙特这样的国家，不是以色列能够轻易对付的。而以色列对卡塔尔的打击，背后其实有着计算：卡塔尔与伊朗、什叶派 的关系较近，并非传统海合会成员，尽管有钱也是美国的盟友，但轰炸它不会引发过多的反弹。 然而，即便如此，美国依旧迫使以色列道歉，因为这次冲突让美国的国际信誉大跌，美元的信用也受到严重冲击，甚至连安全承诺都变 ...

Core Insights - BHP and China Mineral Resources Group have reached an agreement to settle iron ore transactions in RMB starting Q4 2025, marking a significant shift in pricing power in the global iron ore market [1][4] - This agreement is a crucial step towards the internationalization of the RMB, particularly in commodity trading [1][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China accounts for approximately 75% of global iron ore demand, while 82% of Australia's iron ore exports are directed to China, which constitutes about 5% of Australia's GDP [3] - Historically, iron ore pricing has been dominated by sellers, with transactions conducted in USD, leading to higher costs for Chinese buyers [3][6] - BHP's production cost for iron ore is reported at $19 per ton, yet long-term contract prices were set at $109.5 per ton, highlighting the disparity in pricing [3] Group 2: Strategic Changes - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group has consolidated major domestic steel and mineral companies, enhancing China's bargaining power in negotiations with global miners [3][4] - The Chinese government has implemented a ban on purchasing BHP iron ore priced in USD, marking a significant policy shift [4][6] Group 3: Implications for Future Transactions - The acceptance of RMB for iron ore transactions eliminates the need for currency conversion, reducing exchange rate risks and simplifying the transaction process [6][7] - This move not only lowers costs for Chinese steel companies but also signals a shift in China's role from a passive buyer to an active player in global pricing [6][7] - The decision is expected to enhance the RMB's status in the global financial system and reduce reliance on the USD [7]

7天前，澳大利亚还摆出了一副"你爱买不买"的强硬姿态，结果却在短短几天内突然转变，开始接受用人民币结算铁矿石交易，这一举动让全球都感到震 惊。那么，这究竟是澳大利亚妥协得太快，还是中国的反击力度太大？必和必拓（BHP）的"点头同意"不仅仅是一种贸易上的让步，更像是对中国经济战略 的间接认可。 这场铁矿石结算方式的争议背后，其实有很多深层次的因素值得我们关注。它不仅仅是一次贸易纠纷，更涉及了贸易战术、金融博弈和话语权的争夺。短短 七天的变化，其实是中澳之间长期博弈的集中爆发。 首先，澳大利亚实在离不开中国市场，这绝不是一句空话。铁矿石是澳大利亚出口的支柱产业，而中国恰恰是全球最大的铁矿石买家，占据了澳大利亚铁矿 石出口的六成以上。假如中国暂停采购，像必和必拓这样的大型矿业公司库存将迅速增加，现金流也会迅速吃紧。企业不仅无法获得利润，甚至可能面临裁 员的风险。在这种情况下，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯在记者会上表达了复杂的心情，表示希望尽快解决争端，恢复互信。他的表态一方面是在安抚国内的企 业，另一方面也像是向中国递出了橄榄枝。 更让澳方头疼的是，中国近年来在铁矿石进口上已经不再依赖澳大利亚，进口渠道变得更加多元。除了 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the financial performance of Jinling Mining for the first three quarters, showing a revenue increase of 12.98% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 47.09% [1] - The company attributes its growth to increased sales of iron concentrate, reduced production costs, and improved performance of by-product copper concentrate [3] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Jinling Mining achieved a revenue of 478.80 million yuan, up 17.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70.17 million yuan, up 0.25% year-on-year [1] - Year-to-date, the company reported total revenue of 1.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 220.47 million yuan [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for the third quarter were both 0.1179 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.26% [1] Profit Distribution - Jinling Mining announced a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 29.77 million yuan [3] Industry Context - The report also mentions that Daoshi Technology, a competitor, reported a significant revenue increase of 18.84% and a net profit increase of 408.27% for the third quarter, indicating a strong performance in the new materials sector [6] - The overall market trend shows that 30 companies have released positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters, with 14 companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100% [6]