点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 市场表现综述： 大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代2025.9.22-2025.9.26）原油价格大涨，国内权益市 场指数普遍上涨，港股回调。行业方面，本周电力设备、有色金属、电子行业涨幅居前，社会服务、综 合、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周权益基金表现较好，纯债型基金业绩回撤。 基金产品发行情况： 本周国内新基市场热度持续，新成立基金61只，合计发行份额为366.07亿份。其中股票型基金30只、债券 型基金7只、混合型基金17只、国际(QDII)基金1只、FOF基金6只。全市场新发行基金11只，从类型来看， 股票型基金6只、FOF基金4只、混合型基金1只。 基金产品表现跟踪： 长期行业主题基金指数表 ...

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo emphasizes the opportunities presented by the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, focusing on digital economy and low-carbon development to enhance regional competitiveness and address global challenges [2] Group 1: Trade and Economic Cooperation - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 will facilitate trade liberalization and provide opportunities for sustained trade and investment expansion in the region, particularly in the digital and low-carbon economy sectors [2] - The expo serves as a significant platform for expanding markets between China and ASEAN, allowing companies to showcase high-tech innovations and achievements in digital economy and green development [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The Thai government is undergoing a digital transformation and accelerating green development, with a focus on customizing AI technologies to meet the needs of Thai enterprises, which could significantly enhance production efficiency [2] - The expo allows businesses to observe the latest technological advancements, facilitating precise matching of supply and demand between technology providers and industry needs [2] Group 3: Future Cooperation - The future economic cooperation between Thailand and China can be summarized by three key terms: "openness, balance, and mutual benefit" [2] - The event promotes collaboration and communication in supply chain management between China and ASEAN countries [2]

Group 1 - The 22nd China-ASEAN Expo is facilitating trade and cooperation between ASEAN countries and China amidst global challenges like unilateralism and protectionism [1][2] - Indonesian palm oil representatives express a desire to expand trade with China, highlighting China's market potential and stable supply chains as key advantages [1] - Other ASEAN representatives, including those from Thailand and Malaysia, emphasize the need for stable supply chains and the importance of diversifying market connections, particularly with China [2] Group 2 - The negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 have been completed, covering nine key areas including digital economy and supply chain connectivity [3] - Experts note that the 3.0 version of the free trade area will enhance supply chain resilience and broaden cooperation opportunities between Indonesia and China [3] - The 3.0 version is expected to boost trade and investment in the region, particularly in digital and low-carbon economies, while maintaining supply chain resilience [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue for the first half of 2025 was PLN 17.3 billion, slightly down from the previous year, with a significant drop in compensation payments from over PLN 2,100 million to PLN 630 million [28][29] - EBITDA reached a historical high of PLN 4.2 billion, compared to previous years where such figures were only seen for the full year [29][30] - Net profit exceeded PLN 2 billion, with no impairment charges related to coal assets this year, contrasting with the previous year [30][31] - The net debt to EBITDA ratio improved significantly due to the increase in EBITDA, with financial debt declining by approximately PLN 1.5 billion year over year [31][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The distribution segment generated 60% of the group's EBITDA, amounting to close to PLN 2.5 billion, driven by a higher regulatory asset base and a positive regulatory account [32][34] - The generation segment saw a positive surprise with increased margins and revenue from the balancing market, contributing to overall EBITDA growth [35] - The renewables segment experienced a decline in revenue and EBITDA due to lower market prices and adverse weather conditions, despite an increase in installed capacity [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The share of renewables in the Polish energy mix remained at 28%, with a 17% increase in installed capacity for renewables [12][11] - National electricity consumption was slightly lower than last year, but production output increased by 1.5%, leading to a balance of 1 terawatt hour in electricity exports [11][12] - The average electricity price for 2025 was around PLN 488, with spot market prices at PLN 427 [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on heat decarbonization, growth in distribution, and expansion in sales and renewables, with specific projects underway in these areas [5][6] - A significant emphasis is placed on digitization and customer offerings, such as the Cheap Hours tariff, which aims to enhance customer engagement and reduce electricity bills [4][20] - The company is actively pursuing project financing and has already secured nearly PLN 17 billion in subsidies and preferential financing for its strategic initiatives [41][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering on strategic promises, highlighting the importance of financial stability for future investments [57][58] - The outlook for EBITDA is expected to improve year over year, driven by better margins and increased production volumes [54] - The company is preparing for the 2027-2028 capacity market auction, focusing on local community engagement and energy security [56][61] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, including the installation of new power lines and substations, and the expansion of renewable energy connections [26][25] - The regulatory asset base for distribution increased to PLN 24.6 billion, reflecting a rise in capital expenditures [24][25] - The company is committed to workforce development and enhancing customer service, which are seen as critical for long-term sustainability [60] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the expectations for future EBITDA growth? - Management expects EBITDA to improve year over year due to favorable market conditions and increased production volumes [54] Question: How is the company addressing the decline in the renewables segment? - The company is focusing on increasing installed capacity and improving operational efficiency to counteract market price declines [35] Question: What steps are being taken to secure financing for future projects? - The company has already secured nearly PLN 17 billion in subsidies and is exploring project financing options to support its strategic initiatives [41][42]

Group 1 - The Australian government announced an investment of AUD 1.1 billion (approximately USD 735 million) over the next 10 years to develop the biofuel industry, termed as the "down payment" for this new sector [2] - The investment aims to stimulate private sector investment in biodiesel and aviation fuel, expected to boost demand for biofuel feedstocks such as canola and sugarcane [2] - Australia is a major producer of biofuel feedstocks, with canola exports accounting for nearly one-third of Europe's biodiesel feedstock demand, but has struggled to convert agricultural advantages into domestic energy industry competitiveness [2] Group 2 - The biofuel industry is becoming a key sector in the global energy transition, with the global market size reaching USD 120 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and is expected to exceed USD 170 billion by 2030 [2] - North America leads in biofuel production with nearly 40% market share, followed by South America, particularly Brazil, contributing about 25% [3] - China ranks as the fifth largest biofuel ethanol producer globally, with a production volume of approximately 3.9 billion liters in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [4] Group 3 - Unlike Australia, China's biofuel industry emphasizes "domestic circulation," aiming to reduce reliance on imported crude oil through collaborative industrial chains [5] - The energy revolution positions biofuels not only as alternatives to fossil fuels but also as strategic tools for countries to compete for low-carbon economic influence [5] - A competition for "green fuels" has commenced, spanning from agricultural fields to aviation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. energy policy under the Trump administration is seen as detrimental to the country's competitiveness, particularly in the context of clean energy and low-emission technologies [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Energy Policy - The Trump administration is pushing for increased production of fossil fuels while simultaneously rolling back support for clean energy, which is damaging U.S. competitiveness [1]. - The current energy policy is described as a "tragedy" for the U.S., as it may lead to a decline in its position when low-emission technologies become widely adopted globally [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. energy policy is paving the way for China to expand its dominance in the future low-carbon economy, which could reshape global trade alliances [1]. - The actions taken by the U.S. are perceived to weaken its moral authority and ability to lead globally, prompting other countries to reassess their relationships with China [1]. Group 3: Impact of Executive Orders - Upon returning to the presidency, Trump signed an executive order titled "Unleashing American Energy," aimed at encouraging fossil fuel exploration and production to enhance energy security and job growth [3]. - The Trump administration has also repealed clean energy policies from the Biden administration, specifically targeting wind energy as a focus of opposition [3]. - While these policies may slow the energy transition, it is asserted that they cannot halt it entirely [3].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices generally rose during the week of September 8 to September 12, 2025, with the CSI 500 increasing by 3.38%, while the bond market experienced a pullback [4] - The electronic, real estate, and agriculture sectors saw the highest gains, whereas the comprehensive, banking, and oil & petrochemical sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established this week, with a combined issuance of 21.794 billion units. This included 18 equity funds, 13 mixed funds, 6 bond funds, and 3 FOF funds [5] - Overall, 55 new funds were issued across the market, categorized as 21 bond funds, 16 equity funds, 13 mixed funds, 3 FOF funds, 1 REIT, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Performance Tracking - Most industry-themed funds, except for the pharmaceutical sector, saw net asset value increases, with TMT-themed funds showing significant gains of 4.63% [6] - The median net asset value change for passive index funds was 1.91%, with chip, information technology, and electronic ETFs performing particularly well [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced continued net outflows, particularly in broad-based themes like the STAR Market, while financial real estate and new energy sector ETFs saw significant net inflows [7] - The median return for stock ETFs was 1.93%, with a net outflow of 4.352 billion yuan, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 3.09% and a net inflow of 21.168 billion yuan [7] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated positioning of actively managed equity funds increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week, with increased allocations to non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and telecommunications [9] - Conversely, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, national defense, and electronics saw reductions in funding [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 23 new green bonds were issued, totaling 17.202 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative issuance of 4.78 trillion yuan across 4,119 green bonds [10] - The median net asset value changes for ESG funds were 2.10% for actively managed equity funds, 0.94% for passive index funds, and -0.08% for bond funds, with green and low-carbon economy funds performing notably well [10]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon-neutral ETF, Taikang (560560), is experiencing significant growth, reflecting strong performance in the low-carbon economy sector, particularly in energy storage and photovoltaic industries [1][4]. Group 1: Energy Storage - Recent top-level policies have been introduced to boost energy storage, with the goal of achieving over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, requiring an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [2]. - By the end of 2024, the national new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts, indicating a need for more than a doubling of capacity in the next three years, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% [2]. - The new guidelines support energy storage as an independent entity in the spot market, allowing for profit generation through price arbitrage [2]. Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - N-type technology is becoming the dominant force in the photovoltaic sector, with significant advantages in conversion efficiency and lower degradation rates, leading to a complete replacement of traditional P-type technology [3]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations reached 212 GW, surpassing a cumulative capacity of 1,000 GW, marking a new phase of scale in the industry [3]. - Exports to traditional markets have declined due to trade policies, while emerging markets have seen a surge, with over 51 countries experiencing export growth exceeding 100% [3]. Group 3: Key Companies - Taikang's carbon-neutral ETF (560560) includes major players in the energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, such as CATL, which leads global energy storage battery shipments and has secured a 19 GWh project in the UAE [4][5]. - Sungrow is recognized as a global leader in solar storage, expanding its market presence from China and the US to Europe and the Middle East [5]. - LONGi Green Energy is the largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon wafers and solar modules, continuously breaking records in silicon cell conversion efficiency [5].

Group 1 - The "Dialogue with Germany" event held in Changzhou focused on low-carbon economy and green transformation, highlighting cooperation and development between China and Germany [1] - Germany is a key trade partner and source of foreign investment for Changzhou, with 269 German enterprises operating in the city, including seven Fortune 500 companies [1] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Changzhou has seen a 76% growth in industrial scale and a 27% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP [1] Group 2 - Changzhou has established seven sister cities in Germany and has engaged in various educational exchanges and joint projects, enhancing innovation and cooperation [2] - The scale of Changzhou's new energy industry is projected to exceed 850 billion yuan in 2024, ranking third nationally in industry concentration and first in investment enthusiasm [2] - Nine cooperation projects across multiple sectors, including medical devices and automotive parts, were signed during the event, indicating strong interest from German companies in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - The event featured discussions on Germany's green transition policies and cooperation opportunities, emphasizing the broad consensus between China and Germany in the green low-carbon sector [3] - Representatives from various organizations expressed optimism about the future of Sino-German cooperation in the green economy, highlighting the potential for deep integration of supply chains [3]