Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that non-ferrous metal concept stocks experienced a decline in the afternoon, with Huayou Cobalt falling over 4%, Northern Rare Earth down over 3%, and other companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold dropping over 2% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs also fell by more than 2% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Specific ETFs reported declines, with Mining ETF at 1.687 (-2.60%), Industrial Non-ferrous ETF at 1.413 (-2.62%), Non-ferrous 60 ETF at 1.649 (-2.43%), and Non-ferrous Metal ETF Fund at 1.671 (-2.39%) [2] - A brokerage firm noted that the non-ferrous metal sector will face high market volatility risks in 2025, with uncertainties arising from demand and supply disturbances. However, emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum is expected to support a long-term upward shift in non-ferrous metal prices [2]

Core Insights - The main point of the articles highlights the significant profit growth of the two leading companies in the non-ferrous metal industry, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, in the third quarter, driven by rising product prices [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 55.45%, with total revenue reaching 254.2 billion yuan, up 10.33% [2][3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a net profit of 14.280 billion yuan, marking a 72.61% increase year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 5.99% to 145.485 billion yuan [2][3]. - The third quarter alone saw Luoyang Molybdenum's profit surge to 5.608 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 96.40% [2]. Group 2: Product Prices and Production - The price of COMEX gold has increased by over 50% and LME copper by over 25% since the beginning of the year, contributing to the profit growth of both companies [1]. - Zijin Mining's gold and copper production increased by 20% and 5% respectively, benefiting from enhanced production organization and operational management [2][3]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Both companies have high inventory levels, with Zijin Mining's inventory at 33.241 billion yuan and Luoyang Molybdenum's at 33.525 billion yuan as of the end of the third quarter [4]. - The increase in Luoyang Molybdenum's inventory is attributed to a cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, leading to a buildup of stock [4]. Group 4: Capital Operations and Future Growth - Zijin Mining has been active in capital operations, completing several significant acquisitions, including the Ghana Akim Gold Mine and others, to enhance future growth [7][9]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is focusing on expanding its core mining capacity, with plans for a new project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper annually upon completion [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The 5000 tons/day capacity upgrade project of Jinxin Mining has completed the main construction and is progressing towards production [1] Group 1 - Jinxin Mining's 5000 tons/day beneficiation plant project has completed the main engineering construction [1] - Guocheng Mining (000688.SZ) will assist Jinxin Mining in steadily advancing subsequent work based on actual progress [1] - The company aims to achieve the production target as soon as possible [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of approximately 356 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with a notable decline in Q3 profit compared to Q2 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 123 million, 140 million, and 93 million USD for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with Q3 showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% [1] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3% [1] Group 2: Mining Operations - The company’s own mines produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while cathode copper production remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [1] - The production of anode copper from the company's African mines decreased by about 2% to 49,864 tons, primarily due to temporary shutdowns at the Qianbixi Southeast mine [1] Group 3: Future Production Capacity - The company has five mining projects under construction or planning, which are expected to gradually increase annual copper production capacity to approximately 300,000 tons by 2030 [2] - The projects include the Qianbixi wet method Samba copper mine, the new Luansha mine project, and the Gangbof Menza Sa mine project, among others, which collectively have the potential to add 150,000 tons of copper production capacity once fully operational [2] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - The company announced the acquisition of 10.5% of SM Minerals' issued share capital, which will primarily fund technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project, containing approximately 1.5 million tons of copper resources [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a reduction in this month's arrival volume. The port inventory is decreasing, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The trade war is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and technical aspects, the market is expected to be in a high - level shock. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan of capacity reduction impacts the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill's hot metal production starts to decrease, this month's arrival volume decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy, trade war eases; overall assessment is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 836, with a basis of 49; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 854, with a basis of 67. The spot is at a premium to the futures; assessment is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; assessment is neutral [2]. Technical Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; assessment is neutral [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, and the long position decreases; assessment is bullish [2]. Expectation - Domestic demand decreases, and the capacity reduction plan impacts the market. Adopt a high - level shock mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The downstream steel price rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 CNY/ton, while London LME copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD/ton, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Recent forecasts suggest that the copper market will experience a supply shortage for the first time in three years, contributing to rising prices and increased capital inflow [1] - As of October 27, the net inflow of funds into copper futures reached 26.99 billion CNY, with total capital in copper futures amounting to 48.58 billion CNY, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Codelco plans to raise the copper premium for the European market to 345 USD/ton by 2026, reflecting concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production forecast for 2028-2030 has been increased by 30% to 1 million tons, with expected annual profit growth of 38% from 2025 to 2026 due to rising copper and cobalt prices [3] - Zijin Mining reported a copper production of 830,000 tons in the first three quarters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase, with future production expected to rise significantly from the completion of the Giant Dragon copper mine [3] - Minmetals Resources has seen significant increases in copper production from its three major mines, with Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere showing year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 120%, and 19% respectively [3] - Jiangxi Copper, as the largest shareholder of First Quantum, anticipates a significant profit boost if the Panama copper mine resumes production in the second half of 2026 [4]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a rebound in risk appetite, driven by lower-than-expected September core CPI data in the U.S., which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months [2] - Positive outcomes from U.S.-China economic discussions are expected to further improve bilateral relations, enhancing market sentiment and benefiting cyclical assets and the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Supply Side Analysis - The supply side for copper is facing challenges, with global copper mine production expected to fall short of projections by 2025 due to frequent disruptions in mining operations [2] - Specific mines such as Chile's El Teniente, Congo's Kamoa-Kakula, and Indonesia's Grasberg are experiencing production interruptions, leading to various negative impacts on supply [2] - SMM forecasts that global copper concentrate production will reach 19.48 million metric tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 220,000 metric tons [2] Demand Side Analysis - Copper demand is anticipated to grow rapidly due to its extensive applications in electric vehicle motors, battery wiring, and power transmission for AI data centers [2] - The ongoing global energy transition and the AI industry revolution are expected to drive significant increases in copper demand [2] - Long-term investments in power grids and the growth of AI data centers, combined with relatively inelastic copper supply, suggest a sustained increase in copper price levels [2] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) and the mining ETF (561330) as potential investment vehicles in light of the favorable market conditions for copper [2]

Industry Overview - Recent data shows that Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 yuan/ton, while London LME copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD/ton, both nearing historical highs, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - International forecasts predict a return to copper supply shortages for the first time in three years, contributing to the ongoing rise in the global copper market and continued capital inflow [1] - As of October 27, the net inflow of funds into copper futures reached 48.58 billion yuan, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [1] Company Insights - Codelco plans to raise the copper premium for the European market to 345 USD/ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) has had its copper production forecast for 2028-2030 increased by 30% to 1 million tons, with expected annual compound profit growth of 38% from 2025 to 2026 due to rising copper and cobalt prices [3] - Zijin Mining (601899) reported a copper production of 830,000 tons in the first three quarters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase, despite a slight decline due to flooding at its Congo mine [3] - Minmetals Resources (01208) reported significant increases in copper production from its three major mines, with Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere showing year-on-year increases of 67%, 120%, and 19% respectively [4] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) is the largest shareholder of First Quantum, which has proven copper resources of 35.5 million tons and is expected to resume production at its Panama mine in the second half of 2026, significantly boosting profits [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - After the Fourth Plenary Session and the progress in Sino - US negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the sector is expected to be driven by macro and policy factors. In the short term, prices of various products in the black building materials industry are expected to oscillate [1]. - Although there are signs of recovery in the steel market, the inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the scrap steel price is expected to follow the finished products. The supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the coking coal fundamentals are healthy. The alloy prices are supported by cost and output but face supply - demand pressure. The glass and soda ash prices are in an oscillating and weakening state [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: Affected by previous concentrated arrivals, the current arrival level has dropped rapidly. Considering the normal growth of shipments, the arrival level is expected to stabilize. The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has no prominent fundamental contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, its price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [1] Carbon Element - Coke: Environmental protection restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream coal mine inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is still high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [2] - Ferrosilicon: High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [2] - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Steel - The spot market trading volume has improved, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are not good. Steel production has increased, demand has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline but at a slow pace. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade negotiations [7] Iron Ore - The spot market price is strong. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and port inventory has decreased slightly. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to macro and policy factors [8][9] Scrap Steel - The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [10] Coke - The second - round price increase has been implemented. Supply has tightened, and demand may decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Supply recovery is slow, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12] Glass - Manufacturers in Shahe and Hubei have continued to accumulate inventory, and the spot price has continued to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed [12] Soda Ash - Production has slightly fluctuated, and downstream procurement is stable. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline [14] Manganese Silicon - The futures price is strong, but the spot market is cold. Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [14][15] Ferrosilicon - The cost support is strengthened, and the futures price has slightly increased. High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [16]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 CNY/ton, while LME copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD/ton, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] - International forecasts predict a return to copper supply shortages over the next three years, contributing to rising prices and increased capital inflow into the copper market [1] - As of October 27, the net inflow of funds into copper futures reached 48.58 billion CNY, making it the second-largest commodity futures category after gold [1] Group 2: Codelco's Copper Premium - Codelco plans to raise its copper premium for the European market to 345 USD/ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has increased its copper production forecast for 2028-2030 by 30% to 1 million tons, expecting a compound annual growth rate of 38% in regular profits from 2025 to 2026 due to rising copper and cobalt prices [3] - Zijin Mining (02899) reported a copper production of 830,000 tons in the first three quarters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase, with future production expected to rise significantly from the completion of the Giant Dragon copper mine project [3] - Minmetals Resources (01208) has seen significant increases in copper production from its three major mines, with Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere showing year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 120%, and 19% respectively [3] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) holds a significant stake in First Quantum, which has proven copper resources of 35.5 million tons and is expected to resume production at the Panama copper mine in the second half of 2026, potentially enhancing Jiangxi Copper's profits [4]