Export Data Insights - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[7] - The trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.765 billion compared to the same month last year[7] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained strong, while exports to the US saw a significant decline of 21.67%[7] Import Data Insights - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2%[7] - Major commodities like copper and its products showed strong import growth, benefiting from the renewable energy sector[6] - Traditional demand indicators like iron ore and steel continued to experience negative growth[6] Market Trends and Risks - The rebound in export growth is attributed to "export rush" ahead of tariff exemptions and fiscal expansion in Europe[7] - Future export growth may face challenges due to potential policy implementation delays and uncertainties in US-China trade relations[6] - The manufacturing PMIs for the US, Japan, and the Eurozone are below the growth threshold, indicating a cooling global economy[7]

Core Viewpoints - In July, China's export growth rate exceeded Bloomberg's consensus expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, slightly below the company's forecast of 7.5% but higher than the previous value of 5.9% [2][4] - The resilience of exports is supported by low base effects and driven by three key regions: ASEAN, EU, and Africa, which may continue to provide unexpected strength against US tariff pressures [4][6] - Import growth in July significantly surpassed expectations, primarily driven by raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil and integrated circuits, indicating potential future pressures on import demand [4][11] Group 1: Trade Data Observations - July's export data aligns closely with the company's expectations, with a year-on-year increase supported by a low base from the previous year, while the month-on-month figure fell below the historical average [6][12] - The resilience of exports is notable given the backdrop of significant US tariff increases, with cumulative export growth remaining robust despite potential "export rush" factors [6][16] - The overall external demand may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, compounded by the potential for a decline in import demand [9][10] Group 2: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa have shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall export performance in July [7][17] - The recovery in EU exports aligns with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, while ASEAN exports may be influenced by transshipment trade dynamics [20][23] - African exports have been particularly strong, driven by vehicle and parts exports, indicating a divergence from trends seen in other regions [26][29] Group 3: Export Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to face adjustments due to external demand slowing and high base effects in the fourth quarter [9][34] - Leading indicators suggest that export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with potential declines in the second half [10][34] Group 4: Import Performance - July's import growth rate of 4.1% significantly exceeded expectations, driven by various categories including crude oil and integrated circuits [38][60] - The contribution to import growth primarily came from unlisted other goods, indicating a potential reliance on specific categories for sustained growth [11][39] - Future import growth may face challenges due to declining commodity prices and ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [39][63]

今年以来，我国外贸保持平稳增长，彰显出强大韧性和国际竞争力。据海关总署统计，2025年前5 个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比（下同）增长2.5%。5月份，我国货物贸易进出口总 值3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。其中，出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%；进口1.53万亿元，下降2.1%。 记者注意到，在地方层面，各地纷纷出台创新举措，为企业发展注入信心。5月份以来，福建、湖 北等地深化"福品销全球""千企百展出海拓市场"等活动，加大新兴市场境外展会补助力度，鼓励外贸企 业"走出去"；深圳推出金融助力稳外贸相关措施，推出多款创新金融产品；天津整合政府、协会、机 构、企业四方资源，搭建企业"一站式"出海服务基地，为企业提供融入新市场的全程服务。这些举措与 国家层面的稳外贸政策相互配合、协同发力，共同护航外贸企业发展。 数据显示，以美元计价，5月份我国出口额增长4.8%，其中对美出口下降34.5%。业内专家认为，5 月份出口同比增速回落，符合市场预期。"主要源于高关税影响下，5月份对美出口降幅扩大。与此同 时，近期美国关税政策下，外需整体呈现走弱态势。此外，去年同期出口基数偏高，也在下拉今年5月 份出口 ...

Core Insights - France's trade deficit reached €43 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of €4.4 billion compared to the second half of 2024 [1] - Imports grew by 1.9% year-on-year, while exports only increased by 0.7%, leading to a widening trade deficit [1] - In the second quarter alone, the trade deficit was €22.9 billion, up €2.8 billion from the first quarter, primarily due to declines in exports of electricity, aerospace products, and ships, alongside record-high imports of pharmaceuticals [1] Trade Deficit Analysis - The increase in trade deficit signals a warning for France, especially in light of new trade agreements between the EU and the US [1] - The French Minister for Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, emphasized the need for France and Europe to enhance competitiveness and accelerate efforts to avoid falling behind [1] - US tariff measures are expected to have multiple adverse effects, including rising prices for American consumers and potential global economic slowdown [1] Economic Implications - The trade agreement between the US and the EU poses a dual threat to France and Europe, with reduced exports to the US and the risk of a global economic slowdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - France's trade deficit reached 43 billion euros in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.4 billion euros compared to the second half of 2024, primarily due to higher import growth than export growth [1] Trade Data Summary - In the first half of the year, imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while exports grew by only 0.7%, leading to an expanded trade deficit [1] - In the second quarter alone, the trade deficit amounted to 22.9 billion euros, which is an increase of 2.8 billion euros from the first quarter [1] - The decline in exports of electricity, aerospace products, and ships, along with a record high in pharmaceutical imports, contributed to the trade deficit [1] Government Response - Laurent Saint-Martin, the French Minister responsible for foreign trade, indicated that the widening trade deficit serves as a warning signal for France, especially in light of a new trade agreement between the EU and the US [1] - He urged France and Europe to take action to enhance competitiveness and accelerate efforts to avoid falling behind [1] - Saint-Martin also highlighted the negative impacts of US tariff measures, which could lead to higher prices for American consumers and potentially slow global economic growth, posing a dual threat to France and Europe [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - China's overall export growth in the first seven months of this year exceeded that of 2024, despite negative year-on-year growth in exports to the US, due to export diversification [2][8] - The adjustment of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" by the US on August 7 and China's front - loaded exports in the first seven months, along with a relatively high export base in Q4 2024, will lead to a slowdown in China's export growth [3][11] Summary by Related Content Overall Export and Import Situation - In July, China's US - dollar - denominated exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (estimated 5.8%, previous 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year (estimated 0.3%, previous 1.1%), and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion (previous $114.75 billion) [1][4] - From January to July, China's cumulative export value increased by 6.1% year - on - year (5.82% in 2024), and the cumulative import value in the first half of the year decreased by 2.7% year - on - year (1.03% in 2024) [1][4] Export to Major Trade Partners - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year (16.9% in June, 13.5% from January to July, 12% in 2024), exports to the EU increased by 9.2% year - on - year (7.6% in June, 7.0% from January to July, 3.0% in 2024), and exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year (down 16.1% in June, - 12.6% from January to July, 4.9% in 2024) [2][5] - In July, China's exports to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year (down 6.7% in June, - 1.1% from January to July, - 1.8% in 2024), and exports to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year (6.6% in June, 4.4% from January to July, - 3.5% in 2024) [5] Export Diversification - In July, China's exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall 7.2% year - on - year growth of China's US - dollar - denominated exports in July [2][8] - In the first seven months, China's exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and exports to Africa in July increased by 42.4% year - on - year (34.8% in June, 24.5% cumulative year - on - year from January to July, 3.5% in 2024) [2][8] Export Product Categories - In the first seven months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were $1.18 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% (7.5% in 2024), and exports of high - tech products increased by 6% year - on - year (4.8% in 2024) [3][9] - In the first seven months, exports of traditional labor - intensive products such as clothing, toys, and furniture decreased year - on - year, as did exports of home appliances and mobile phones, while exports of high - tech and high - value - added products such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships increased [3][9] Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 31, the US signed an executive order to adjust the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7, which will impact global trade [3][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Current Sentiment**: Investor sentiment in the A-share market remained flat, with a weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) at 95% as of July 30, 2025, unchanged from the previous period [1][5][7] - **Trading Volume**: Average daily turnover for A-shares decreased by 7% to RMB 1,675 billion, while equity futures and Northbound turnover dropped by 9% to RMB 264 billion and 10% to RMB 107 billion, respectively [1][2] Core Insights - **Market Caution**: Investors are cautioned against underpricing the risks associated with US-China tensions, with a preference for A-shares in the short term due to expected higher volatility [1][12] - **Earnings Estimates**: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [1] - **Export Trends**: Macro data indicates a divergence in export mix, with exports to the US and ASEAN moderating, while exports to Taiwan and Korea rebounded, likely due to tech-specific factors [3] Additional Important Information - **Home Prices**: The property market shows a slight widening in home price declines, with transaction home prices dropping 1.1% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year in approximately 50 sample cities [10] - **Trade Negotiations**: Uncertainty over trade negotiations is expected to weigh on home sales, contributing to a cautious outlook on home prices [10] - **Future Monitoring**: Key factors to monitor include the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting, clarity on macro policy, and the conclusion of the 2Q earnings season, which could alleviate profit-taking pressures [13] Market Preferences - **Near-term Preference**: A-shares are preferred in the near term due to anticipated volatility from the expiration of the US-China trade truce and weakening consumption momentum [12] - **Long-term Outlook**: The setup for the Hong Kong market is expected to improve post-September as risk factors become clearer [12] Conclusion - The A-share market is currently experiencing flat sentiment with declining trading volumes, while macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions are influencing investor behavior and market dynamics. Monitoring upcoming policy meetings and trade negotiations will be crucial for future market direction.

Trade Overview - In the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - In July alone, the total trade value was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than June, achieving a new high for the year [1] Import Data Energy Imports - In July, China imported 47.204 million tons of crude oil, with a cumulative import of 326.568 million tons from January to July, up 2.8% year-on-year [2] - July's refined oil imports were 4.031 million tons, with a cumulative import of 23.391 million tons from January to July, down 16.6% year-on-year [2] - Natural gas imports in July totaled 10.632 million tons, with a cumulative import of 70.144 million tons from January to July, down 6.9% year-on-year [2] Mineral Imports - In July, iron ore and its concentrates imports were 104.623 million tons, with a cumulative import of 696.569 million tons from January to July, down 2.3% year-on-year [3] - Copper ore and its concentrates imports in July were 2.560 million tons, with a cumulative import of 17.314 million tons from January to July, up 8.0% year-on-year [3] Wood and Pulp Imports - In July, imports of logs and sawn timber reached 465.3 million cubic meters, with a cumulative import of 33.479 million cubic meters from January to July, down 12.3% year-on-year [4] - Pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, with a cumulative import of 21.455 million tons from January to July, up 6.5% year-on-year [4] Export Data - In July, steel exports were 9.836 million tons, with a cumulative export of 67.983 million tons from January to July, up 11.4% year-on-year [5] - Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 542,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 3.462 million tons from January to July, down 7.9% year-on-year [5] - Rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, with a cumulative export of 38,563.6 tons from January to July, up 13.3% year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the U.S. in July amounted to $35.8 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, primarily due to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods [2][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 22% year-on-year, a larger decline compared to June's 16% [2][4]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has been consistent, with April seeing a 21% drop, May a 35% drop, and June a reduced drop of 16% [4]. - The cumulative tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China reached 145% by April, with a subsequent agreement in May reducing tariffs by 115%, leaving a 30% tariff rate on Chinese goods [4]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - One reason for the decline in exports to the U.S. may be the stagnation in the movement of U.S. inventory following the significant tariff reductions in mid-May [5]. - The demand for logistics to the U.S. has been decreasing, with container price indices for exports from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the U.S. West Coast dropping nearly 70% compared to May 30 [5]. - The price index for exports to the U.S. East Coast has also decreased by nearly 60%, indicating downward pressure on prices due to declining demand [5]. Group 3: Alternative Export Markets - In contrast, China's exports to regions outside the U.S. have shown strong performance, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 17%, the EU by 9%, and Japan by 2% [5]. - The increase in exports to Southeast Asia may be attributed to circumvention of U.S. tariffs, with Vietnam and Thailand seeing significant year-on-year growth of 28% and 26%, respectively [5]. Group 4: Future Implications - U.S. President Trump announced new reciprocal tariff rates on August 7, which will increase export costs for Asian countries to the U.S. [5]. - There are concerns that if China continues to export through countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs, the U.S. may raise tariffs on these exports, which could inevitably impact China's overall export performance [5].

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.79%[1] - Exports to economies excluding the U.S. increased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.6%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall export growth[1] - Key regions driving export growth included Latin America (+0.8 pct), South Korea (+0.5 pct), and Taiwan (+0.4 pct)[1] U.S. Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July, a decline of 5.6 percentage points compared to June, impacting overall exports by 3.3 percentage points[2] - Container shipping rates to the U.S. dropped approximately 28% in the last week of July compared to the last week of June, indicating a slowdown in trade[2] - The expected monthly export range to the U.S. is projected between $35.8 billion and $38.2 billion, with year-on-year growth unlikely to return to positive figures[2] Regional Export Dynamics - South Korea's exports grew by 5.9% in July, the highest rate this year, driven by semiconductor exports which rose by 31.6%[3] - Vietnam maintained a high export growth rate of 17.7% in July, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 26%[3] - The export growth of labor-intensive products, machinery, and high-tech products showed varying degrees of slowdown, with labor-intensive products declining to -0.6%[4] Import Trends - Total imports in July reached $223.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, up 3 percentage points from June[4] - Significant contributors to import growth included bulk commodities, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, with increases of 1.6, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively[4] - The import of crude oil and copper ore saw notable rebounds, while iron ore imports fell by 8.8%[4] Future Outlook - China's export resilience is expected to continue, with positive year-on-year growth anticipated from August to October 2025, despite potential short-term declines in November and December due to high base effects[6] - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs may further impact global trade dynamics, with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and potential tariff expansions to other economies[6]