Group 1 - The quarterly pricing negotiations between Japanese aluminum buyers and global producers are unusually prolonged due to significant differences in opinions regarding the premium for primary aluminum for the October-December shipment period [1] - Japanese buyers have set a regional benchmark for premiums based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, but the ongoing negotiations have lasted several weeks after the quarter began, which is atypical [1] - Initial premium offers from producers ranged from $98 to $103 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5% to 9% compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - A producer later adjusted their offer from $103 to $97 per ton, but buyers rejected this, seeking a premium in the $80 range, citing current spot premiums in the low $70s [1] - A representative from a Japanese processing plant indicated that the $97 offer had expired and requested a new quote from producers, emphasizing weak demand and high inventory levels as reasons for their lower price expectations [1] - As of the end of September, aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports reached 341,300 tons, an increase of 1.8% month-on-month [1] Group 3 - A producer's representative noted that rising premiums in the U.S. and Europe are expected to tighten supply in Asia, leading sellers to insist on higher price levels [2] - The negotiations are anticipated to continue until the end of the month [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251017: Uncertainty of Tariff Imposition and Expectation of Fed Rate Cut Affect Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Price and Market Data Alumina - National average alumina price on 2025-10-16 was 2942.48 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan from the previous day; prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Guizhou decreased by 5 yuan/ton [2] - Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Alumina futures closing price was 2797 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; trading volume was 241,190 lots, down 37,670 lots; open interest was 336,453 lots, up 5,113 lots; inventory was 217,032 tons, down 599 tons [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; prices in various regions showed different changes [2] - Electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; trading volume was 179,878 lots, down 16,299 lots; open interest was 194,298 lots, up 11,135 lots; inventory was 71,394 tons, down 148 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; prices of various types of ADC12 showed different changes [2] - Cast aluminum alloy futures closing price (active contract) was 20,540 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; trading volume was 3,638 lots, up 143 lots; open interest was 12,716 lots, down 53 lots [2] Overseas Aluminum - LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,576 US dollars/ton, up 44 US dollars [2] - LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 27.94 US dollars/ton, down 11.16 US dollars; 3 - 15 month contract spread was -43.74 US dollars/ton, up 127.75 US dollars [2] - Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.6189, down 0.12 [2] Group 3: Core Views and Trading Strategies Alumina - Domestic alumina production is at a loss, but supply-demand is expected to be loose, making prices likely to fall rather than rise [2] - Trading strategy: mainly short when prices rise to high levels, pay attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 yuan/ton (view score: -1) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, pay attention to support levels around 20,300 - 20,600 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 21,300 - 22,000 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum, support levels are around 2,600 - 2,700 US dollars/ton and resistance levels are around 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, or lightly short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, pay attention to support levels around 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton (view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][3] - The fundamentals of aluminum ingots are operating steadily, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, showing a relatively strong trend [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region, the shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown period [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingot - In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to bring a further increase in aluminum ingot production, with the daily average output expected to rise further. The spot price of alumina maintains a weak operation, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline month - on - month [3] - This week, the average operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the second half of the month and approach the annual high. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises is stable at 68%, but it is expected to gradually decline. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64% and is expected to continue its weak and stable performance in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5% and is expected to be stable but weak in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3% but may decline due to weak terminal demand. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6% and is expected to continue to decline slightly in October [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Overseas macro - interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The later focus is on the trends of inventory and consumption. The later focus also includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at mines, and the release of consumption [4]

Core Insights - Baise City has achieved an average annual GDP growth of 6.5% since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, ranking 5th in the region and completing its planning goals a year ahead of schedule [1] - The city's industrial structure has shifted from being aluminum-dominated to a diversified model with four main industries: new ecological aluminum, forestry, new energy, and new materials [1] - Significant industrial investments totaling 829.6 billion yuan have been made, with 240 key projects introduced, while the total output value of the aluminum industry has exceeded 150 billion yuan [1] Economic Development - The city has upgraded all 13 industrial parks to autonomous region-level and included them in the China-ASEAN industrial cooperation zone [2] - Major open platforms have been established, including the Guangxi Aluminum Products Storage and Trading Center, which has seen bilateral trading volume exceed 80 billion yuan [2] - Approximately 80% of fiscal spending has been allocated to livelihood projects, totaling 187.3 billion yuan, with significant investments in education and healthcare [2] Environmental and Social Initiatives - Baise City prioritizes ecological and green development, maintaining over 95% of days with good air quality and achieving a 100% compliance rate for drinking water sources [2] - The city has been recognized for its efforts in climate adaptation and has led the region in afforestation for 12 consecutive years, with a 13.9% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP [2] - The governance of border areas has been enhanced through various initiatives, with a focus on local industry development and community cohesion [3]

节后铝锭库存快速去库 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20950元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨，较 上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价20870元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-80元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20840元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-35元/吨至-105元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-16日沪铝主力合约开于20880元/吨，收于20975元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，最 高价达20975元/吨，最低价达到20835元/吨。全天交易日成交65803手，全天交易日持仓137404手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.7万吨，较上一期变化-2.3吨，仓单库存71542 吨，较上一交易日变化148吨，LME铝库存495325吨，较上一交易日变化-3650吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-16SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2890元/吨，山东价格录得2855元/吨，河南价格录得 2910元/吨，广西价格录得3095元/吨，贵州价格录得3100元/吨， ...

Core Insights - Macro Holdings experienced a decline of 0.37% on October 16, with a trading volume of 386 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net financing outflow of 23.19 million yuan on the same day, indicating a negative sentiment among investors [1][2] - The company’s main business includes the processing, production, and sales of high-quality aluminum products, with aluminum foil contributing 45.37% to revenue [1] Financing and Trading Activity - On October 16, Macro Holdings had a financing buy-in of 31.01 million yuan and a repayment of 54.20 million yuan, resulting in a total financing balance of 436 million yuan [1] - The financing balance represents 2.04% of the circulating market value, which is below the 20th percentile of the past year, indicating a low level of financing [1] - The company’s short selling activity included a repayment of 9,300 shares and a sale of 700 shares, with a short selling balance of 7,480 shares, which is above the 60th percentile of the past year [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Macro Holdings reported a revenue of 1.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -118 million yuan, a significant decline of 539.64% [2] - The company has not distributed any dividends in the past three years, with a total payout of 12.38 million yuan since its A-share listing [3] Shareholder Structure - As of October 10, the number of shareholders increased by 3.30% to 20,500, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 3.19% to 55,308 shares [2] - Notable institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder, increasing its stake by 27.49 million shares [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Aluminum and Copper Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The current copper-to-aluminum ratio is at a historical high of approximately 4.2 times, with expectations for a correction during the latter part of the interest rate cut cycle, suggesting aluminum may replicate copper's upward trend over the next three to five years [1][2][8] - The aluminum sector is currently undervalued, with an average dividend yield of 5-10% and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8 times, projected to rise from 8-9 times to 10-15 times by 2026, potentially doubling or more [1][2][15] Key Insights and Arguments - The inflation cycle typically sees gold leading, followed by silver, then copper and aluminum; thus, aluminum, which is currently at a low price point, should be a focus [1][3] - The average valuation metrics for the non-ferrous metals sector include a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2 times, a return on equity (ROE) of 20%, and a PE ratio of 8 times, indicating a combination of resilience and dividend defensiveness [1][3] - The copper-aluminum price bottom usually occurs at the end of an interest rate cut cycle, aligning with economic recovery phases [4][5] Market Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached its capacity ceiling, while uncertainties in overseas energy consumption will gradually restore the copper-to-aluminum ratio to normal levels [1][9] - Fund holdings in the sector are significantly lower than the previous year, with only 4.7% to 4.8% allocation in Q2, indicating a relatively low market crowding and room for recovery [1][7] Future Projections - Aluminum is expected to become a resource commodity similar to copper due to its price elasticity and diverse demand, with a current profit margin of approximately 3,000 yuan per ton [2][8] - The anticipated increase in demand for alternative materials, such as aluminum wire bundles, is expected to further support aluminum's market position [10] - The global energy consumption for electrolytic aluminum production accounts for about 3% to 3.5% of total electricity usage, with potential supply uncertainties due to energy constraints [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Companies with high elasticity, such as Zhongfu, Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan, are recommended for those seeking growth, while more stable options include Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and China Aluminum [2][15] - The aluminum sector's dividend yield is projected to remain strong, with some companies maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% [14] Conclusion - The aluminum sector is poised for significant growth over the next few years, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for aluminum as a substitute material. The current market conditions present a favorable investment landscape for both growth and income-focused investors [15][18]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum is adjusting its domestic business strategy based on industry policies and long-term goals to optimize resource allocation while maintaining a balanced approach to both domestic and international markets for steady growth [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on optimizing resource allocation in response to industry policies [1] - Future strategies will continue to balance domestic and international market layouts [1] - The adjustments are aimed at achieving stable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's subsidiary, Advanced Aluminum Technology Co., focuses on the production and sales of aluminum alloy profiles, with stable overall operating conditions [2] Group 1: Company Operations - The subsidiary's operational scale and personnel configuration are aligned with its business development stage and market demand [2] - The company will assess global market dynamics and its strategic layout for any potential capacity expansion plans, with timely disclosures if there are relevant developments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum is focusing on integrating traditional energy sources with renewable energy to minimize carbon emissions in its Indonesian project [2] Group 1: Company Strategy - The Indonesian project primarily relies on thermal power, supplemented by some photovoltaic power generation [2] - The company aims to achieve production stability while reducing carbon emissions by leveraging the advantages of both traditional and renewable energy sources [2]