铝产业链周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-3-2 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 国产铝土矿价格较节前平稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格较节前持稳于60.5美元/干吨。几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳 于61.5美元/干吨。氧化铝运行产能环比节前减少20万吨至9350万吨，全国氧化铝库存环比节前增加4.9万吨至528.4万吨。河北某 氧化铝大厂二期因政策影响焙烧端处于全部停运状态，同时溶出环节较春节假期前运行水平继续降低。电解铝运行产能环比节前增 加2.4万吨至4470万吨。随着铝价走强，未来电解铝供应预期有所改善。新投产能方面，扎铝35万吨已进入试生产阶段，天山铝业 二阶段8万吨仍在建设中，预计年内全面达产，此外广西隆林正加快盘活5.71万吨闲置产能，市场传辽宁某电解铝企业可能复产。 海外方面，华通安哥拉实业有限公司一期12万吨电解铝项目投产中，完全达产或在二季度；印尼北加电解铝项目首批50万吨投产 中。斯洛伐克 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 周末因中东局势快速升级，截至本周报撰写时多方军事力量对峙仍未有明显消褪（国际暗金价格略降温），且伊朗官媒亦首次承认封锁霍尔木兹海 峡，海外涉及多大宗商品的断供窗口期可能打开。从铝产业链影响来看，主要有以下3点： ◆ （1）电解铝的海外供应减量扰动：中东（涉及伊朗、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、卡塔尔、阿曼）电解铝总产量接近可占到全球9.4%左右比重、 氧化铝总产量接近可占到3.2%，中东国家电解铝的出口占比偏高，多国合计出口占其国内产量的比重接近65.5%，阿联酋、伊朗、巴林出口占比 更甚，静态评估预计影响到460万吨年出口量，单月影响可能在38万吨左右（当前全球显性库存数接近160万吨），如果海峡封锁时间过长，将较 大程度影响到中东以外的铝锭供应市场。 ◆ （2）就上游来看，原料端-铝土矿及氧化铝的供应链脆弱：中东国家在氧化铝及铝土矿上均处在严重依赖海外供应的输入国地位，若运输渠道受限， 也将影响中东电解铝的生产及 ...

期货有限公司 2026年02月26日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 (3) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为66174吨,环比-907吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为349790吨,环比+2390吨。 氧化铝基本面观测指标 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 图表 2: 几内亚铝土矿价格 图表 3:氧化铝现货汇总均价 TT 2026 . - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2024 600 6000 120 5500 570 110 5000 540 100 4500 510 4000 480 80 3500 450 3000 420 2500 01/02 02/12 03/24 05/05 06/15 07/26 09/05 10/23 12/03 04/08 05/13 06/14 07/16 08/17 09/18 10/27 11/28 12/3 图表 5:氧化铝-仓单库存 图表 6:氧化铝价差(连一连三) 图表 4:现货基美走势 一、氧化铝 二、电解铝 比+117元/吨;升贴水为-175元/吨,环比+25元/吨。 (2) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为288287吨,环比+3112吨。 (3) ...

证券研究报告 港股通 南山铝业国际 (2610 HK) 兼具稳定现金流与高成长性 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国香港 首次覆盖南山铝业国际给予买入评级，给予 26 年 PE13 倍，对应目标价 78.18 港元。公司是东南亚领先的氧化铝生产商，已形成 400 万吨氧化铝产 能，此外公司计划新建 25 万吨/年电解铝产能，并远期规划建设 50 万吨/年 电解铝项目，公司氧化铝业务利润稳定叠加 2028 年之后新建电解铝项目或 贡献较大业绩增量，我们看好公司未来利润实现稳步增长。 公司当前主营氧化铝业务成本优势显著，构筑稳固现金流 公司主营业务为氧化铝生产与销售，于 2025 年 3 月成功在香港联交所主板 上市，控股股东为 A 股上市公司南山铝业。截至 25 年年底，公司在印尼宾 坦岛建成并投产年产能合计 400 万吨的氧化铝生产基地。受益于印尼丰富 的铝土矿资源禀赋及铝土矿出口禁令政策，公司氧化铝原料端成本优势显 著，根据我们测算，2024 年铝土矿采购均价仅 35.0 美元/吨，显著低于几 内亚和澳大利亚 CIF 均价的 76.5 美元/吨和 62. 5 美元/吨。低成本优势导致 公司氧化铝销售业务盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Alumina - The overall price of alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The marginal contraction of the short - term supply side provides upward potential for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Due to strong uncertainties in the current macro - environment and the supply - demand dual - weak characteristics of the fundamentals, the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - With the cost weakening and the simultaneous contraction of supply and demand, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [108]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The probability of a rate cut in March is 21.7% (13.4% last week). The US dollar index is 97.96, the US PMI is 52.60, and the US 10 - 2 - year spread is 0.74%. The domestic manufacturing PMI is 49.30 [4][10][13]. 3.2 Alumina Futures - Last week, the main alumina contract 2605 closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price last week was 2,610.4 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The overseas alumina market price in US dollars was 311 US dollars/ton, and the import window of the Chinese alumina market is currently closed [16]. Supply - Alumina plants' production cuts and overhauls are increasing, and the operating capacity continues to decline. As of last Friday, the installed capacity was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons (down 800,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 82.3% [16]. Demand - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [16]. Valuation - The average full cost of alumina decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 166 yuan/ton. The weekly trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased [16]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the alumina inventory was 5.621 million tons and continued to accumulate [16]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Futures - Last week, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,015 US dollars/ton, down 121 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 23,315 yuan/ton, down 1,245 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. Macro - Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in January exceeded expectations and returned above the boom - bust line; the ADP employment data was unexpectedly lower than expected; the conflict between the US and Iran eased; the US stock earnings reports increased market concerns about AI capital expenditure. Domestically, relevant departments have introduced consumption - promotion and credit - related policies [59]. Spot - Last week, the average spot price in East China was 23,442 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from the previous week; in South China, it was 23,448 yuan/ton, down 3.55% from the previous week; in Central China, it was 23,336 yuan/ton, down 3.54% from the previous week [59]. Supply - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [59]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of aluminum products was 57.9% (down 1.5% from the previous week) [59]. Valuation - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased last week, and the average profit decreased. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 340 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [59]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 836,000 tons and continued to accumulate [59]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures - Last week, the main ADC12 contract 2603 closed at 21,950 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Scrap Aluminum - Last week, the average price of crushed primary aluminum was 19,150 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the average price of crushed secondary aluminum was 19,650 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Spot - Last week, the average price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of ADC12 last week was - 37 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.3% (down 0.6% from the previous week) [108]. Demand - Downstream die - casting enterprises generally replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and the actual demand is generally weak [108]. Valuation - The average cost of ADC12 decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was 1,045 yuan/ton, the 0 - 3 month spread was 875 yuan/ton, and the AD - AL spread was - 140 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [108]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the ADC12 inventory was 45,900 tons, with a slight inventory reduction [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to allocate long positions at low levels, reduce positions before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to capital sentiment. Although the supply expectation has improved, the current market sentiment of being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - ly View - In Shanxi and Henan, bauxite prices are stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons to 94.25 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 79,000 tons to 5.193 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 42,000 tons to 44.676 million tons week - on - week. Domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate during the week. The order support for recycled cast aluminum alloy was insufficient, dragging down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year real yield), the US dollar index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices have been stable recently. Fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. Most mines enter the shutdown period during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of production is generally postponed until after the National Two Sessions. The cost of using domestic ore is significantly higher than that of imported ore, and the continuous decline in the price of imported ore puts great pressure on domestic ore. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The shipping volume of Guinea ore increased, and the spot supply of imported ore increased, putting pressure on the ore price [9]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,610.4 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons week - on - week. Near the Spring Festival, the operating capacity of alumina in the country fluctuates. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi that had been under maintenance will resume production one after another, and two enterprises in Shanxi that had planned maintenance will carry out maintenance. The decline in bauxite prices provides room for alumina enterprises to reduce production costs and also opens up space for a possible decline in alumina prices [12]. 3.5. Important High - frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and alumina transportation volume [14][15][16][17]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.676 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week. New production capacity: The first - phase 120,000 - ton capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, and the second - phase 80,000 - ton capacity is still under construction, expected to reach full production within the year. Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle capacity. Overseas, on the 11th, the first batch of 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, started production. On the 15th, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. held an official commissioning ceremony, and full production may be achieved in the second quarter [19]. 3.7. Important High - frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [21]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the aluminum futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the LME aluminum inventory [23][24][25][26]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 58.3% week - on - week. The decline in aluminum prices did not effectively stimulate trading volume. Downstream die - casting enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand and replenished inventory at low prices due to weak orders and the expectation of pre - holiday shutdown, with low inventory - building willingness. Insufficient order support dragged down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [29]. 3.10. Important High - frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [31][32][33][34]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 8.3% to 36% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, profile enterprises are in the year - end finishing stage, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 2% to 66% week - on - week. The environmental protection restrictions in the central plains region have temporarily ended, and related enterprises have gradually resumed pre - holiday inventory - building, while accelerating the shipment of finished products to reduce inventory pressure. Can - making materials still maintain full - line operation, and the production lines of mid - and low - end products have seen an increase in operating rate due to the decline in aluminum prices and pre - holiday inventory - building demand [41]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 58% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises actively adjust their production rhythm, resulting in a decline in operating rate. Although downstream cable enterprises have successively received power grid orders at the average price of last week, the shipment rhythm of leading enterprises has slowed down due to weak terminal提货 demand at the end of the year. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises actively reduce production due to the traditional off - season, and both production and on - hand orders show a slight contraction [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity. If it is successfully put into production, consider going long at low prices [23][24] - For alumina, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are in high - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Industry Chain Related Products Futures and Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, aluminum, caustic soda, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices and their basis through charts [4] Caustic Soda Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 87.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 863,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous week. The weekly inventory was 509,600 tons, a 2,500 - ton decrease from the previous week, showing a narrow de - stocking but still at a high level [8] Aluminum Raw Material Supply Side - As of January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 482,400 tons from the previous week. As of the end of December, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.66 million tons, a 2.07% increase from the previous month and a 12.55% increase from the same period last year, at a historical high [10][11] Alumina Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.18%, a 0.65 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.839 million tons, a 14,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The total inventory was 5.487 million tons, an increase of 94,000 tons from the previous week [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - As of the end of December, China's primary aluminum production was 3,767,000 tons, and the import volume was 189,200 tons. The operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.3%, remaining at a high level. As of the end of November, the inventory was 595,000 tons [17] Main Inventory Trends of Three Major Aluminum Exchanges - As of January 23, the LME aluminum inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 21,275 tons from last Friday. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 197,100 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last Friday. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,449 tons, a decrease of 989 tons from the previous week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the three major global exchanges continued to accumulate this week [21][22] Strategy Recommendations Caustic Soda - This week, the caustic soda futures price continued to decline. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1,945 yuan/ton, a 3.04% decrease from last Friday. The spot price changed little. As of January 23, the converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 2,330 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from last Friday. In the short - term, it is in low - level oscillation. In the long - term, pay attention to the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity [23][24] Alumina, Shanghai Aluminum, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - This week, the futures prices of alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy basically maintained an oscillating trend. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main alumina contract was 2,724 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from last Friday; the closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 24,290 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from last Friday; the closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,995 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase from last Friday. In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are in high - level oscillation. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly in a quantitative easing environment, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 22, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton [1] - On January 22, the spot price index was 2633 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 68432 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 457 tons [1] - On January 22, the aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the SMA00 average price was 23740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of ×30 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7609 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 138856 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 101 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 143 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 22, the Baotai 4001 alloy price was 2300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 21, the refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2509 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 126641 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7513 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]