2025 年 5 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 市场数据：2025 年 5 月 12 日 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 研究助理： 王金源 邮箱：wangjinyuan@sxzq.com | 收盘价（元）： | 52.10 | | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | 68.20/46.12 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | 4.03/4.07 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | 209.89 | | 总市值（亿）： | 211.88 | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 基本每股收益(元)： 1.07 摊薄每股收益(元)： 1.07 每股净资产(元)： 27.02 资料来源：最闻 李旋坤 农药 扬农化工（600486.SH） 买入-B(维持) 农化景气触底回升，葫芦岛项目放量在即 事件描述 4 月 29 日，公司发布《2025 年一季度报告》，实现营业收 32.41 亿元， 同比+2.04%，环比+33.96%，实现归母净利为 4.35 亿元，同比+1.35%，环比 +146.77%。 事件点评 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical market is showing signs of recovery, with the Huludao project set to ramp up production soon [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.241 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.96% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 435 million yuan, up 1.35% year-on-year and 146.77% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved raw material revenue of 1.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.1%, with a sales volume of 28,670 tons, up 14.8% year-on-year and 20.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The formulation revenue for Q1 2025 was 871 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 451.7%, with a sales volume of 15,392 tons, up 2.8% year-on-year and 642.7% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average selling price for raw materials was 63,000 yuan per ton, down 8.77% year-on-year, but only 2.0% lower than the average price in 2024, indicating a price recovery trend [4]. Project Development - The Huludao project is expected to fully commence production in Q3 2025, with significant investments in fixed assets and ongoing construction [5]. - The project includes the production of various innovative pesticides, which are anticipated to enhance the company's market competitiveness [6]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion yuan, 1.59 billion yuan, and 1.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly highlighting undervalued and high-growth opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The anti-dumping duties on chlorpyrifos are expected to benefit domestic companies, with a recommendation to focus on Yangnong Chemical [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of orderly exports of nitrogen fertilizers, suggesting that leading domestic companies should adopt a proactive pricing strategy to avoid excessive competition [3]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with a focus on investment opportunities in cyclical products due to low inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a mixed outlook for oil, coal, and natural gas prices, with oil prices supported by shale oil production costs [3][4]. - The report notes a significant price increase in PTA and MEG, driven by supply constraints and optimistic market sentiment [9][10]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Market - Domestic urea prices have risen by 2.8% to 1830 CNY/ton, influenced by export policy expectations [11]. - The report highlights the stable pricing of various pesticides, with specific price points for glyphosate and other herbicides remaining unchanged [11]. Chemical Products Pricing - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a 1.6% decrease in PVC prices and stable pricing for other chemicals like DMC and silicone [12][13]. - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment in the dye industry, with prices remaining stable despite cost support from raw materials [15]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with recommendations for stocks such as Yangnong Chemical (buy) and Hualu Chemical (increase) based on their projected earnings and market performance [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.4 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a price turning point for its core product, Mancozeb, and is anticipated to see contributions from new products in the future [1][6]. - The agricultural pesticide industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales volumes and pricing expected in the coming periods [6][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 4,643 million CNY, -20.9% YoY - 2025E: 5,367 million CNY, +15.6% YoY - 2026E: 6,092 million CNY, +13.5% YoY - 2027E: 6,849 million CNY, +12.4% YoY [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 779 million CNY, -45.9% YoY - 2025E: 875 million CNY, +12.4% YoY - 2026E: 1,066 million CNY, +21.9% YoY - 2027E: 1,237 million CNY, +16.0% YoY [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.86 CNY - 2025E: 0.96 CNY - 2026E: 1.17 CNY - 2027E: 1.36 CNY [2][7] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13, 11, 9, and 8 for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][7]. Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline of 34% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. Product Insights - The company’s main pesticide raw materials saw a sales volume increase of 37.16% YoY in 2024, despite a price drop of 33.78% [6][7]. - The price of Mancozeb is expected to rise from 32,800 CNY/ton to 37,000 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend for the company's performance [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to leverage its integrated capabilities and cost advantages, with a strong return on equity (ROE) and significant cash reserves for capital expenditures [6][7]. - The adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 are 875 million CNY, 1,066 million CNY, and 1,237 million CNY respectively, with a corresponding P/E of 11, 9, and 8 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry is gradually recovering after several years of downturn, with leading company XianDa achieving a turnaround in profitability in Q1 2025 [2][3]. Industry Recovery - The pesticide market in China saw 883 large-scale enterprises in 2024, a historical high, with total revenue increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, although total profit decreased by 3.4% [3]. - From September 2024, cumulative revenue began to show signs of recovery, indicating a gradual improvement in industry performance [3]. - XianDa reported a revenue of 2.419 billion yuan in 2024, with a net loss of 25.8755 million yuan, which was a significant reduction in losses compared to 2023 [3]. - In Q1 2025, XianDa achieved a revenue of 543 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit of 21.69 million yuan, marking a successful turnaround [3]. Factors Contributing to Recovery - The industry has seen the elimination of outdated production capacity due to prolonged market stagnation, optimizing the supply-demand structure [4]. - The shift towards technology-driven transformation in Chinese pesticide companies, spurred by policy guidance, has provided new momentum for industry development [4]. Innovation as a Key Driver - Innovation has become a crucial lever for industry transformation, with 33 pesticide products recognized as patent-intensive in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.33%, and export value reaching 113.3 billion yuan [4]. - XianDa has increased its R&D investment to 4.6% of revenue, amounting to 111 million yuan in 2024, despite facing performance pressures [5][4]. - The company has established a comprehensive innovation system that enhances collaboration and risk management, significantly improving its R&D capabilities [6]. Management and Market Strategy - XianDa has adopted a "cylinder-shaped development model" to break down departmental barriers, fostering efficient collaboration among R&D, production, and marketing teams [8]. - The company has streamlined its product development cycle from 3-5 years to under 2 years through digital management systems [8]. - XianDa is focusing on creating innovative products, transitioning from selling raw materials to selling technology and leading market demand [9]. Global Market Expansion - XianDa aims to establish a strong presence in the global agricultural market, recognizing the need to enhance the international visibility of Chinese pesticide brands [10]. - The company is actively researching global pesticide registration policies to facilitate entry into high-end international markets [11]. - XianDa's products are currently sold in over 80 countries, with ambitions to build a globally influential Chinese agricultural brand [11].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co., Ltd. held a performance briefing for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, focusing on the company's strategic direction and industry outlook, particularly in the fields of agricultural chemicals and new energy electronic chemicals [1][2]. Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 322 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 16 million yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase [3][4]. Industry Outlook - The agricultural chemicals industry is deemed essential for food security, while the demand for electrolytes is expected to rise with the expansion of new energy battery applications. The company anticipates increased demand for its products in various downstream applications [2][4]. Technological Innovations - The company is focusing on technological innovations in the new energy electronic chemicals sector, particularly in sodium-ion and lithium-ion electrolyte products. This includes enhancing R&D capabilities and collaborating with renowned universities for new solvents and additives [2][4][5]. Project Updates - The Hubei project has entered the trial production phase as of January 2025, with products already being sold [3][4]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to develop high-end fine chemical industries, with a focus on agricultural chemicals, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. This includes developing new products with market potential and enhancing existing product lines [4][5]. Green Development Initiatives - The company emphasizes green development by innovating waste treatment technologies and increasing the recycling rate of intermediate products, which helps reduce emissions and operational costs [4][5]. R&D Investment Plans - Future R&D efforts will concentrate on high-value raw materials in the agricultural sector, chemical intermediates, and new energy electronic chemicals, with a commitment to increasing investment in these areas [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating a stabilization in the agricultural chemical industry and improved sales performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.241 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.04% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 435 million yuan, reflecting a minor increase of 1.35% year-on-year [1]. - The diluted earnings per share were 1.07 yuan, based on a total share capital of 407 million shares [1]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments in Q1 2025 included: - Active ingredients: 1.806 billion yuan (up 0.82 billion yuan) - Formulations: 871 million yuan (up 0.09 billion yuan) - Trade and other businesses: 564 million yuan (down 0.26 billion yuan) [1]. - Sales volumes for active ingredients and formulations were 28,700 tons and 15,400 tons, respectively, representing increases of 14.8% and 2.8% year-on-year [1]. Pricing Trends - Average prices for active ingredients and formulations were 63,000 yuan and 56,600 yuan, respectively, showing declines of 8.8% and 1.6% year-on-year [1]. - The price decline for the company's active ingredients was less severe compared to the overall market price drops for similar products [1]. Cost Management - The company maintained effective cost control, with total expenses decreasing by approximately 4.75 million yuan compared to the previous year [2]. - Sales expenses decreased by about 1.65 million yuan, while management and R&D expenses increased by 5.1 million and 3.51 million yuan, respectively [2]. - Financial expenses saw a reduction of approximately 11.71 million yuan, positively impacting net profit [2]. Project Development - The company is progressing with the Liaoning Youchuang project, with the first phase completed and products like Kungfu Chrysanthemum being produced [2]. - The project aims to optimize product layout and create new growth points for sustainable development [2]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.47 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" investment rating [2].

在当今这个信息爆炸的时代，如何精准把握市场动态，洞悉行业趋势，成为企业和投资者共同关注的焦点。为此，智研咨询分析团队倾力打造的《2025- 2031年中国百菌清行业市场行情监测及未来趋势研判报告》，旨在为各界精英提供最具研判性和实用性的行业分析。 本报告汇聚了智研咨询研究团队的集体智慧，结合国内外权威数据，深入剖析了百菌清行业的发展现状、竞争格局以及未来趋势。我们秉承专业、严谨的研 究态度，通过多维度、全方位的数据分析，力求为读者呈现一个清晰、立体的行业画卷。 在内容方面，报告不仅涵盖了行业的深度解读，还对百菌清产业进行了细致入微的探讨。无论是政策环境、市场需求，还是技术创新、资本运作，我们都进 行了详尽的阐述和独到的分析。此外，我们还特别关注了行业内的领军企业，深入剖析了它们的成功经验和市场策略。 百菌清，又名2,4,5,6-四氯-1,3-苯二腈，是一种有机化合物，化学式为C8Cl4N2，是一种广谱保护性杀菌剂。百菌清具有高效、低毒、广谱、低残留、药效期 长等优势，因此，相较传统保护性杀菌剂，百菌清需求量增长较快，特别是近两年来，因巴西大豆锈病暴发、全球病害抗性管理需求增长以及中国、印度、 东南亚等新兴市场 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 56.61 [8][9]. Core Views - The final ruling on anti-dumping measures against imported chlorpyrifos from India is expected to boost domestic prices, which have been low for a long time. This is anticipated to positively impact the company's growth prospects, particularly with the Huludao project, leading to a gradual recovery in industry conditions [1][3]. - The company has reported a significant increase in the average market prices of its main products as of May 8, 2025, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [3]. - The company's Huludao project is progressing well, with construction completed ahead of schedule, which is expected to contribute positively to future profits [4]. Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported chlorpyrifos from India, with anti-dumping duties ranging from 48.4% to 166.2% to be implemented for five years starting May 7, 2025. This is expected to alleviate price suppression from imports [1][2]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - The average market prices for key products such as high-efficiency fluorochlorpyrifos and others have shown slight increases compared to early 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in the agricultural chemical market [3]. Project Development - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company has reported ongoing construction projects valued at RMB 1.76 billion, with the Huludao project expected to enhance profitability as production ramps up [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 1.35 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 1.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 13% [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 3.33, RMB 3.81, and RMB 4.31 for the same years [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times for 2025, based on comparable company analysis, leading to a target price of RMB 56.61 [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of 56.61 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The final ruling on anti-dumping measures against imported chlorpyrifos from India is expected to boost domestic prices, which have been low for a long time. The anti-dumping duties range from 48.4% to 166.2% [1][2]. - The company's Huludao project is anticipated to contribute positively to profits as it progresses, with a reported construction cost of 1.76 billion RMB as of Q1 2025 [4]. - The overall pesticide industry is expected to gradually recover, with prices for key products like chlorpyrifos and bifenthrin showing signs of increase [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of 56.61 RMB, reflecting a positive outlook based on industry recovery and company growth potential [8]. Industry Overview - The anti-dumping ruling is expected to alleviate price suppression caused by imports from India, which accounted for 71% of domestic demand in recent years [2]. - The average prices for various pesticide products are projected to rise, indicating a potential recovery in the agricultural chemicals sector [3]. Company Performance - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.35 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.75 billion RMB, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 13% to 15% [5]. - The EPS for the same period is projected to be 3.33, 3.81, and 4.31 RMB, indicating a steady increase in earnings per share [5]. Project Development - The Huludao project is progressing efficiently, with the first phase completed ahead of schedule, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability in the future [4].