Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report 2025/10/22 [1] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03118799 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the carbonate lithium industry may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with the demand growth rate faster than the supply, leading to the depletion of industrial inventory [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 39.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.0799%. The call open interest in the options market dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, while the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slight upward trend and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 77,120 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 159,908 lots, down 9,808 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 353,231 lots, up 43,032 lots [2]. - The price difference between near - and far - month contracts is - 940 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 29,019 lots/ton, down 873 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 74,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 72,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,770 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 7,650 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,791 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of carbonate lithium is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of carbonate lithium is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of carbonate lithium is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of carbonate lithium enterprises is 47%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 87,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 160,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 139,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 150,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2% [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2% [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.09%, up 0.55% [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,758,000 vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 19.17%, up 0.48% [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.56%, up 0.10% [2] Option Situation - The total call open interest is 109,447 contracts, up 5,840 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 42,694 contracts, up 4,433 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 39.01%, up 2.0799% [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, down 0.0178% [2] 2. Industry News - The General Office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou, which aims to expand the implementation of consumer goods trade - in programs, increase subsidy categories, and carry out group - buying activities to drive consumption of home appliances and automobiles. It also actively seeks pilot projects for automobile circulation consumption reform [2]. - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the power battery market was strong in September, with good performance in both exports and domestic sales. The current main battery energy density range of pure electric vehicles is between 125 and 160, and the high - energy - density batteries have slightly improved recently [2]. - According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September 2025, the top ten automobile sales enterprises (groups) sold a total of 20.431 million vehicles, accounting for 83.9% of the total automobile sales. Among them, the sales of Dongfeng Company and GAC Group decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] 3. Market Trends - The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated strongly, closing up 1.63%. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Salt Lake Co. has commenced trial production of its 40,000 tons per year lithium salt project, which began on September 28, and has successfully produced qualified lithium carbonate products [1]. Group 2 - The company responded to an investor inquiry regarding the status of the lithium salt project on an investor interaction platform [1]. - The specific announcement regarding the trial production can be found in the document titled "Announcement on the Trial Production of the 40,000 Tons per Year Lithium Salt Integration Project" [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has exceeded market expectations, and the market volatility has increased. From a seasonal perspective, downstream demand may experience a seasonal decline around the Spring Festival. Both upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct futures and options hedging according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to remain at a high level. Although the short - term demand is fair during the traditional peak season in October, the supply pressure in the polysilicon industry is significant, and future production reduction is expected. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - In the polysilicon market, the high profit has driven high production enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. With the possible implementation of photovoltaic capacity control policies, the market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is characterized by strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to stocking up at low prices or conducting buying hedging [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the lower price. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, an interval long - position strategy can be considered [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamental pressure has led to a significant decline in the futures price. Before the implementation of capacity control policies, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Previous long positions are recommended to be closed, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the future [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [16]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 75,700 | 0.00% | 169,108 | 138,434 | - 20,566 | 30,705 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,565 | 1.60% | 190,332 | 114,236 | - 17,557 | 49,303 | | Polysilicon | 50,340 | - 3.66% | 150,772 | 56,806 | - 11,421 | 9,150 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached 21,066 tons, a 431 - ton increase from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. All lithium - extraction processes showed an upward trend. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,143 - ton decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed, but the inventory remained at a high level. The downstream inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts reached 23,209 tons, hitting a new weekly high [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: With the arrival of the flat - water period, electricity prices in some south - western regions have increased, and some factories have shut down furnaces. There are signs of复产 in the north - western region, and the overall supply is expected to remain high [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: During the traditional peak season in October, the short - term demand is fair. However, the polysilicon industry is facing significant supply pressure, and future production reduction is expected [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production in October is expected to exceed expectations. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating significantly [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The National Energy Administration announced that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low for the year. Downstream production cuts are being gradually implemented [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 74,820 - 76,580. [9] - The overall situation shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - **Cost - side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF has increased, but it is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,778 yuan/ton, a 0.45% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,852 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite is 77,485 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 6,553 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][11] - **Market Indicators**: On October 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, and the short position increased. [11] - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased from 846 to 851 dollars/ton, a 0.59% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,350 to 74,000 yuan/ton, a 0.89% increase. [16] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 74.39%, a 4.32% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production of lithium concentrate, lepidolite, salt - lake lithium, and recycled lithium all showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 10.30%. [18][19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rates and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products all increased to varying degrees. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60%, with the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 26.61% and the loading volume of ternary batteries increasing by 20.54%. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased, with production increasing by 16.25% and sales increasing by 14.98%. [18][19] - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.59% decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.34%, the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 3.40%, and the inventory of other sources increased by 0.87%. [18][19]

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity involved 304 analysts and investors from various securities and asset management firms [3] - The meeting took place on October 20, 2025, via the "Cangge Mining Investor Relations" WeChat mini-program [3][4] Group 2: Company Overview and Strategic Goals - Cangge Mining aims to become a leading global mining group, leveraging its substantial mineral resource reserves and advanced technology in potassium and lithium extraction [4] - The company plans to enhance its resource volume and development technology in potassium and lithium to become a key supplier globally [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company implemented cash dividends totaling CNY 1.569 billion, with cumulative dividends from 2022 to 2024 reaching CNY 7.4 billion [6] - Revenue increased by 3.35% year-on-year, primarily due to a 34.04% rise in potassium chloride revenue, while lithium carbonate revenue decreased by 64.50% due to market fluctuations [6] Group 4: Production and Sales Data - As of the end of Q3 2025, potassium chloride production reached 701,600 tons, achieving 70.16% of the annual target, while sales reached 783,800 tons, achieving 82.51% of the target [7] - Lithium production for the first three quarters was 6,021 tons, with sales of 4,800 tons and an average selling price of CNY 67,300 per ton [9] Group 5: Cost Management and Profitability - The average sales cost of potassium chloride decreased by 19.12% to CNY 978.69 per ton, while the average selling price increased by 26.88% to CNY 2,919.81 per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 63.46% [8] - The company continues to focus on cost control through process optimization and technological innovation [8] Group 6: Project Developments - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine project is progressing well, with significant milestones achieved in the construction of the second concentrator [12] - The Mali Mico Salt Lake project is on track, with construction of the photovoltaic power station and land use procedures underway [14]

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by substantial investment income from its stake in Xizang Julong Copper Industry Co., Ltd [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue increased by 28.71% year-on-year to 723 million yuan, while net profit rose by 66.49% to 951 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue grew by 3.35% to 2.401 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 47.26% to 2.751 billion yuan [1] - Investment income received in cash amounted to 1.546 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 23924.99% year-on-year, primarily due to dividends from Xizang Julong Copper Industry [1] Business Segment Performance - In the potassium chloride segment, the company achieved 70.16% and 82.51% of its annual production and sales targets, respectively, with an average selling price (including tax) up by 26.88% and average sales cost down by 19.12%, resulting in a gross margin increase of 20.78% [1] - The company released approximately 80,000 tons of national reserve potassium chloride to meet market supply demands, leading to a sales volume exceeding production by about 82,200 tons [1] - In the lithium carbonate segment, the average selling price (including tax) decreased by 24.59%, while average sales cost increased by 2.98%, resulting in a gross margin decline of 18.42% [1] Investment in Subsidiaries - The company's stake in Julong Copper Industry yielded a copper production of 142,500 tons and sales of 142,400 tons, generating revenue of 11.821 billion yuan and net profit of 6.421 billion yuan [2] - Cangge Mining's investment income from Julong Copper was 1.950 billion yuan, accounting for 70.89% of the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the reporting period [2] - Julong Copper's investment income increased by 588 million yuan, a growth of 43.09% year-on-year [2] Project Developments - Significant progress was reported in the second phase expansion of the Julong Copper Mine, with successful trial runs of the second concentrator plant and safe completion of the main drainage tunnel for the tailings pond [2] - The company provided updates on key projects including the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project and the Laos potassium salt mine project, as well as the renewal of mining rights at the Chaharhan Salt Lake [2] Stock Performance - As of October 16, 2025, Cangge Mining's stock price was 57.39 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of approximately 90.1 billion yuan [2] - The company's stock has seen a cumulative increase of about 114.7% since the beginning of 2025 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the atmosphere in the new energy vehicle market changes and the downstream replenishment pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are okay, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate due to policy news [3][5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market is characterized by strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The upstream is recommended to seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price surges, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000. - For industrial silicon 11, although there is an increasing expectation of demand - side production cuts, the price still has support below. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy and consider long - position allocation in the current interval. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. - For polysilicon 11, with the news of capacity control policies, long positions can be held cautiously. If one wants to increase positions, it is recommended to participate through buying call options. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [14] 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,720, with a daily increase of 0.06%, trading volume of 225,238, open interest of 188,523 (a decrease of 4,408 compared to the previous day), and 33,076 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,570, with a daily increase of 0.59%, trading volume of 225,068, open interest of 142,381 (a decrease of 20,293 compared to the previous day), and 50,357 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of polysilicon is 50,865, with a daily increase of 3.37%, trading volume of 276,176, open interest of 80,114 (a decrease of 1,274 compared to the previous day), and 8,050 warehouse receipts [15] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to the previous week, reaching a new weekly production high. Except for a slight decrease in the production of lithium extracted from mica, the production of other lithium - extraction processes continued to rise. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises increased around the holiday, the inventory in the intermediate links decreased, and the downstream inventory slightly declined [3] - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream material factories are becoming more cautious, and the overall market trading activity is average. From October 1 - 12, the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 546,000, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a 15% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Southwest China will enter the dry season in November, and production cuts may be planned at the end of October, while large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [5] - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand is okay, and the production of the polysilicon segment continues to increase. However, considering the "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan in the industry, there is great uncertainty in demand. The news of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry on Tuesday has increased the market's concern about the future demand for industrial silicon [5] 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production of polysilicon in October will exceed expectations. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream production cuts are gradually advancing, and the polysilicon inventory has shown an obvious accumulation trend. As of the week of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [8] - **Downstream Situation**: The national photovoltaic new - installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, hitting a new low this year, indicating a weak downstream demand [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of divergence due to both supply and demand increases. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation within the 72,000 - 75,000 point range in the near term. The supply - demand contradiction is not yet intensified, and price breakthrough requires new driving factors [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On October 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,720 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the past week. The basis weakened to 180 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 16.68% to 225,238 lots [1][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity remained at a high level of 71.3%. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained stable at 6,370 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for power batteries was strong, with new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in September increasing by 16% year - on - year to 1.307 million vehicles, and the penetration rate reaching 58.5%. The price of ternary materials significantly rebounded, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for four consecutive weeks to 134,801 tons, and the registered warrants also decreased, indicating that the industry chain has entered the active de - stocking stage [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased slightly by 40 yuan to 72,720 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.06%. The basis weakened by 40 yuan to 180 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 18.18%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 4,408 lots to 188,523 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 45,089 lots to 225,238 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,900 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also remained stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type ternary materials increased by 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On October 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,037 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,750 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged. The lithium carbonate futures price continued the oscillating trend, with the main contract in the range of 72,200 - 73,800 yuan/ton. In October, the supply is expected to increase steadily, but the strong demand in the power and energy - storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, resulting in a phased supply - tight situation [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 8.878 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 1.489 million, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.8%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 10.433 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 20, the mechanical and electrical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen plant. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu was completed and put into operation. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project at Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, indicating its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. has launched a 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project, enhancing lithium resource extraction efficiency and quality, while strengthening China's self-supply capability in lithium resources [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The new project utilizes old brine from potassium fertilizer production as raw material, employing advanced "continuous ion exchange moving bed + membrane coupling" integrated technology [1] - The project has achieved a 25.63% increase in comprehensive yield across three lithium workshops, reaching 82.4%, thus optimizing lithium extraction efficiency and resource utilization [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is expected to solidify Qinghai Salt Lake's leading position in the lithium industry, which is crucial for energy transition and achieving carbon neutrality goals [1] - The design and construction of the project align with industry standards, focusing on high-end, green, and intelligent development, leveraging "5G+" technology to promote green electricity projects [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current lithium salt market shows strong supply and demand. After the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. The follow - up arrangements of Yichun lithium mica mines are yet to be clarified, and international macro factors may disrupt the market. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate [2][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part I: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market has strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. It is expected to fluctuate and weaken. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000 [15]. - For industrial silicon 11, the demand - side reduction expectation is increasing, but there is still support below the price. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Currently, it can be considered for long - position allocation within the range. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300 [15]. - For polysilicon 11, there are rumors about capacity control policies. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Short - sellers should temporarily exit, and aggressive investors can consider going long at low prices. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [15]. - There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [15]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,680, with a daily increase of 0.55%, trading volume of 270,327, and an open interest of 192,931 (a decrease of 14,532 compared to the previous day), and 35,180 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,520, with a daily decrease of 3.24%, trading volume of 287,277, and an open interest of 162,674 (a decrease of 3,048 compared to the previous day), and 51,197 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 49,990, with a daily increase of 2.55%, trading volume of 297,703, and an open interest of 81,388 (a decrease of 6,277 compared to the previous day), and 7,950 warehouse receipts [16]. Part II: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from the previous week, reaching a new weekly high. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The weekly apparent demand for lithium carbonate was 21,647 tons, remaining at a recent high [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The report does not provide detailed downstream situation information other than the demand data mentioned above [2]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The southwest region will enter the dry season in November, and production reduction plans may be gradually initiated at the end of October, but large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand performance is acceptable, with the output of the polysilicon segment continuing to increase. However, considering the industry's "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan, the demand has great uncertainty. On Tuesday, there were rumors of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry, increasing concerns about future demand for industrial silicon [6]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises' production enthusiasm is high. In October, the polysilicon output will exceed expectations. However, terminal demand is weak. As of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a weekly increase of 11,700 tons [8][9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream is gradually reducing production. There are expectations of capacity control policies, which may affect the market [9].