从趋势上来看，锂盐行业从2023年开始供过于求，这是因为2022年下半年锂盐价格暴涨，吸引了很多新的市场参与者进入到这一行 业，造成了产能的快速扩张，进而影响到了价格。但是目前来看，锂盐价格已经进入到磨底期。 近日，天齐锂业在接受机构调研时表示，公司观察到近期锂精矿价格持续回落，但矿端供应尚未出现明显减量，产业链仍处于盈利压 力向上游传导阶段，锂盐端成本支撑线逐步下移。近期碳酸锂价格一度在每吨6.5万元附近出现反弹迹象，但随后再度回落，预计仍需 在此区间进行底部震荡和磨合。 天齐锂业同时认为，行业反转可能仍需等待关键催化因素的出现，例如具备规模的矿山或锂盐厂减产、下游需求进一步增长等。具体 价格走势受经济形势、市场参与者的博弈、预期及行为等多重因素影响，因此公司不对具体价格做指引，而是从行业现状与趋势展开 分析。 从需求来看，2025年，全球能源转型已进入关键阶段。各国政府、企业及社会各界正加速推动清洁能源的应用，以应对气候变化的挑 战。在全球范围内，新能源汽车和储能行业的发展仍然获得广泛的支持；从速度、规模、强度三个维度来看，目前全球锂行业仍然处 于发展的上升期。 天齐锂业表示，因此从中长期来看，公司认为锂 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 承压 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com | 邵婉嫕 | | | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | | | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | T-22 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 61,100 | 240 | -4,100 | -3,060 | -9,280 | -16,820 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 270,174 | 27,898 | -107,351 | 66,360 | 213,449 | 266,264 | | | | 250 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-21 进口增加较多，碳酸锂过剩格局难改 市场分析 2025年5月20日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61160元/吨，收于60860元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.88%。当 日成交量为242276手，持仓量为339673手，较前一交易日增加3866手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳2390 元/吨。所有合约总持仓578509手，较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加17003手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36545手，较上个交易日减少139手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月20日电池级碳酸锂报价6.16-6.49万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.045万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.11-6.21万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.045万元/吨。据SMM调研，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持 续下行。当前碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局，价格持续承压。从成本端来看，由于锂矿石价格的不断下探，对碳 酸锂的成本支撑持续走弱。但目前并未有矿山减停产的情况发生，使得碳酸锂供应端产出仍非常强劲。在当前下 游需求增量相对有限的情况 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around "pseudo market value management" practices in A-share listed companies, particularly focusing on companies like Yongshan Lithium and their questionable stock incentive plans [1][2] - Yongshan Lithium's stock incentive plan failed to meet performance targets, leading to significant increases in executive compensation despite poor business performance [2][20] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the need for effective long-term incentive mechanisms to align the interests of management and employees with those of the company [1][2] Group 2 - Yongshan Lithium's main business segments, molybdenum and lithium salt, have both underperformed, resulting in a decline in overall revenue and profitability [3][4] - In 2024, Yongshan Lithium reported a net profit of 0.43 billion yuan, achieving only 85.75% of its performance target, raising concerns about the effectiveness of its incentive mechanisms [14] - The company's executive compensation has increased significantly, with total compensation for executives reaching 6.42 million yuan in 2024, a 34.79% increase year-on-year [20] Group 3 - The 2022 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan was criticized for its low performance thresholds and potential for benefiting executives disproportionately [6][12] - The 2024 incentive plan has been designed with lower performance targets, which has led to skepticism regarding its ability to effectively motivate executives [11][12] - The ongoing decline in lithium prices and market conditions poses a significant risk to Yongshan Lithium's future performance and the viability of its incentive plans [19][14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在锂价持续波动、行业洗牌加剧的背景下，永杉锂业于5月15日宣布向控股股东永荣致胜的全资子公司 永宏投资定向增发募资5亿元，全部用于补充流动资金。此举被视为新东家"永荣系"的战略支持，然 而，背后潜藏的财务风险与业务挑战不容忽视。 2024年，永杉锂业实现净利润2542.16万元，同比扭亏为盈，但扣非净利润仍亏损7662.72万元，依赖 4849万元政府补助等非经常性损益支撑业绩。 在更受关注的锂盐业务方面，永杉锂业实现营收10.28亿元，同比下滑42.82%，毛利率仅13.69%。锂价 全年震荡下行，年末碳酸锂价格跌至7.5万元/吨，叠加存货减值损失3595.92万元，导致板块盈利能力承 压。 2025年一季度，锂盐与钼业务双双亏损，归母净利润同比暴跌141.28%至-2949.92万元，凸显主营业务 的持续性风险。 截至2025年一季度末，永杉锂业有息负债攀升至10.18亿元，同比激增36.12%，有息负债率高达 27.97%。同时，货币资金仅4.08亿元，同比减少65.86%，短期借款4.19亿元，现金短债比不足1倍，流 动性缺口显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

Core Viewpoint - Yongshan Lithium Industry plans to issue up to 71.8391 million shares at a price of 6.96 yuan per share, raising no more than 500 million yuan to support liquidity and enhance technological research and supply chain layout [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Operations - The company adheres to a "large mining enterprise" supply strategy, focusing on Australian large-scale mines as the supply base while expanding supply channels in Africa and South America [2] - The company is driving innovation through process optimization and technology breakthroughs, including flexible production lines and lithium extraction processes [2] - The raised funds will enhance operational efficiency, market adaptability, and supply assurance to key downstream customers, supporting the implementation of supply chain resource layout and technological research strategies [2] Group 2: Financial Impact and Shareholder Confidence - Following the issuance, the total assets and net assets of the company will increase, optimizing the asset-liability structure and alleviating short-term cash flow pressure [2] - The controlling shareholder, Yongrong Zhisheng, will see an increase in shareholding percentage, reinforcing control stability and demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View The fundamental pattern of supply surplus in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Although the futures market has rebounded in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment and expectations of energy storage exports, the upside space is limited, and the spot trading volume is average [1][2] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 64,680 yuan/ton and closed at 64,120 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decline from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 230,077 lots, and the open interest was 289,360 lots, an increase of 12,404 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 480,821 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots, and the total trading volume decreased by 194,070 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.58. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 52 lots to 36,664 lots [1] - According to SMM data, on May 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,650 - 63,650 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some lithium salt enterprises have carried out maintenance or production cuts, with the weekly output decreasing by 1,115 tons to 16,600 tons, but the production cut is less than expected, and the output is still at a high level [1] - The latest inventory is 131,920 tons, a slight increase of 351 tons from the previous period, with a significant increase in lithium salt factory inventories [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range trading, sell - hedging on rallies - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is issuing A-shares to specific investors, which may dilute immediate returns for existing shareholders, but aims to enhance its financial structure and support future growth initiatives [1][5][9]. Group 1: Impact of A-Share Issuance - The issuance is expected to dilute the company's earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) due to an increase in total share capital [5][9]. - Under three scenarios of net profit growth (0%, 20%, and 40%), the basic and diluted EPS will be affected, with potential declines in immediate returns [2][4][3]. Group 2: Necessity and Rationale for Issuance - The issuance will supplement working capital, supporting technology research and supply chain development amidst a competitive lithium market [5]. - It aims to convey a positive signal to the market, reinforcing the controlling shareholder's commitment to the company's future [6]. - The financial structure will be optimized, alleviating short-term cash flow pressures and enhancing financial stability [6]. Group 3: Measures to Mitigate Dilution Risks - The company will implement strict management of the raised funds to ensure they are used effectively and in accordance with regulations [7]. - Efforts will be made to enhance core competitiveness through improved supply chain management and increased R&D investment [8]. - The governance structure will be strengthened to ensure shareholder rights are protected and to maintain effective oversight [8]. Group 4: Commitments from Stakeholders - The controlling shareholder and management have made commitments to uphold measures that will mitigate the dilution of immediate returns and protect investor interests [10][11].

Fundraising Plan - The company plans to raise a total of up to 500 million yuan through a private placement of A-shares, with all proceeds intended to supplement working capital after deducting issuance costs [1][2] Necessity and Feasibility Analysis - The global lithium salt industry is experiencing accelerated differentiation in supply and demand, with a significant market capacity for future product demand growth [1] - The company aims to establish a supply chain security system by focusing on resource development efficiency and cost control, while also optimizing processes and driving technological innovation [1] - The fundraising will support the company's supply chain resource layout and technology research and development, enhancing its core competitiveness [1] Impact on Management and Financial Status - The fundraising will enhance the company's capital strength and asset scale, improving its risk resistance and overall competitiveness in the market [3][4] - The company's total assets and net assets will increase post-fundraising, optimizing its financial structure and potentially reducing future debt financing costs [4] Compliance and Governance - The company has established a governance structure in line with listing standards, ensuring independent operation of its shareholder meetings, board of directors, supervisory board, and management [3] - A fundraising management method has been implemented to regulate the storage, use, and supervision of the raised funds, ensuring compliance and risk prevention [3] Conclusion on Feasibility - The fundraising plan aligns with the company's strategic development and complies with relevant policies and regulations, demonstrating both necessity and feasibility [4]