Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to deepen the anti-corruption efforts in key areas such as energy, state-owned enterprises, development zones, and bidding processes in 2026 [1] - Since January, 10 officials in the energy sector have been publicly announced as under investigation, with 6 others facing disciplinary actions, marking an increase compared to previous years [1] - Among the investigated officials, there are 2 central-level cadres, 6 from central-level party and state agencies, state-owned enterprises, and financial units, and 2 provincial-level cadres [1] Group 2 - The majority of the 16 investigated individuals have extensive work experience in their respective systems, often starting from grassroots positions [2] - Notably, 13 of the 16 individuals were announced as under investigation or faced disciplinary actions after retirement, indicating that retirement does not serve as a shield against corruption [2] - Common corruption methods among these individuals include leveraging their positions for personal gain in business operations and illegally accepting substantial amounts of money [2] Group 3 - The ongoing repercussions of the 2022 Shanxi coal corruption scandal are evident, with several individuals from the Shanxi coal system being investigated [3] - The restructuring of Shanxi coal resources initiated in 2020 has led to a series of investigations, starting with the former chairman of the coal group being investigated after retirement [3] - The recent plenary session of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection highlighted the need to address corruption in finance, state-owned enterprises, energy, development zones, and bidding processes, focusing on new types of corruption and the "key minority" [3]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 每经AI快讯，2月2日，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数均跌超2%，科创50指数跌超3%。沪深两市成交额 2.58万亿元，较上一交易日缩量2508亿元。从板块来看，白酒概念反复活跃，皇台酒业3连板，金徽酒3 天2板，水井坊触及涨停。电网设备概念逆势走强，汉缆股份、白云电器、三变科技、保变电气等多股 涨停。下跌方面，有色金属、油气、化工、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。其中有色金属板块遭重挫，四川黄 金、赤峰黄金、铜陵有色、西部矿业等多股跌停。截至收盘，沪指跌2.48%，深成指跌2.69%，创业板 指跌2.46%。 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to 4015 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.46% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4600 stocks declining and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - International precious metals continued to plummet, leading to a wave of limit-downs in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors, with companies like Hunan Gold and Xicheng Technology among over twenty stocks hitting the limit down [1] - The fertilizer and phosphate chemical sectors also saw declines, with Dongfang Iron Tower hitting the limit down [1] - The coal sector experienced a downturn, with Dayou Energy hitting the limit down [1] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with Zhongwei Semiconductor and over ten other stocks dropping more than 10% [1] - Other sectors with notable declines included storage chips, steel, combustible ice, and chemical raw materials [1] - Conversely, the electric grid equipment and ultra-high voltage sectors rose against the trend, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Baiyun Electric hitting the limit up [1] - The liquor industry showed strength, with Jinhui Liquor hitting the limit up [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 102.20 points or 2.48% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 381.54 points or 2.69% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3264.11, down 82.24 points or 2.46% [2] - The STAR Market 50 Index fell by 3.88% to 1450.90 [2] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.13% to 4605.98, while the CSI 500 Index fell by 3.98% to 8037.05 [2] Top Gainers - The top gainers included sectors such as liquor and tea, with liquor up by 1.83% and soft drinks by 0.18% [3] - The banking sector also showed a slight increase of 0.129% over five days [3] - Other sectors like highways and electric grid equipment had minimal changes, with highways up by 0.03% and electric grid down by 0.22% [3]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [1] - The North Stock 50 Index decreased by 2.03%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 26,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,558 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks across the three markets experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, oil and gas extraction and services, chemicals, coal, steel, semiconductor, PEEK materials, and photolithography concept stocks all saw significant declines [1] - Conversely, the liquor and electric grid equipment sectors showed resilience, with several stocks in these sectors hitting the daily limit [1] Commodity Market - There was a substantial sell-off in commodities during the Asia-Pacific trading session, leading to sharp declines in metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and steel sectors [1] - Specific stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous faced significant selling pressure, with nearly 10 billion yuan in sell orders and over 6 billion yuan in sell orders respectively [1] - More than 30 stocks, including Zhongman Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas, hit the daily limit down [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector also experienced a significant downturn, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit down, and Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage dropping over 10% during trading [1] Resilient Sectors - The electric grid equipment sector benefited from policy support and increased demand for computing power, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric hitting the daily limit up [1] - The liquor sector demonstrated strong performance, with stocks such as Jinhui Liquor and Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit up [1]

印尼煤炭矿业协会表示，政府大幅削减生产配额可能导致部分煤矿关停，这将使该国本已陷入困境的煤炭行业雪上加霜。该协会周六在一份声明 中称，根据年度工作计划批准的产量配额远低于去年的吨位数。 据外媒报道，印尼统计局周一表示，印尼2025年煤炭出口量为3.9093亿吨，比上年下降3.66%。 2月2日榆林区域大部分煤矿正常生产，个别煤矿停产检修，周末两天产地煤价以涨为主，幅度5-10元/吨，煤矿库存中位。 消息面 机构观点 瑞达期货： 供应端洗煤厂、矿山开工降负，蒙煤通关量高位回落，焦煤总库存累库；需求端焦企负荷、铁水产量延续回落，焦企亏损缩窄，钢厂利润下行， 首轮焦炭提涨落地。现货方面，唐山蒙5#精煤报1390元/吨，折盘面1305元/吨，暂稳运行。技术面，周五夜盘焦煤主力合约收涨1.57%至1194，运 行于20与60日均线上方。当前冬储接近尾声，焦煤呈现供应缩减、需求偏弱的弱平衡格局，预计震荡偏弱运行。关注钢焦利润及产业链停工停产 情况，请投资者注意风险控制。 中辉期货： 国内煤矿供应量环比下降，春节将至近期停产现象陆续增多。进口方面，口岸通关量恢复至同期高位水平，口岸原煤价格小幅回调，下游维持按 需补库。节前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with unclear valuations and drivers. The market is affected by seasonal factors, and the trading opportunities are limited. Different sub - sectors (steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore) have their own characteristics and trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [8][67][118] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows a narrow - range fluctuation. This week, the molten iron output decreased by 0.12 to 228wt, and the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly month - on - month, higher than the same period in 2025 but slightly lower than that in 2024. It is basically certain that the molten iron output has bottomed out in the range of 225 - 226. The electric furnace operation will decline after the end of the month to balance the total crude steel output [8] - **Demand**: Building material demand shows obvious seasonality, with a significant decline in transactions. Plate demand remains stable, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled products is slightly better than that for hot - rolled products, but the price difference between cold - rolled and hot - rolled products has not strengthened. The market sentiment index fluctuates around rigid demand, and speculative demand is relatively weak [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory level of the five major steel products is between 2025 and 2025, and the weekly inventory has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation. The inventory accumulation of building materials has increased, while the inventory accumulation rhythm of plates is relatively neutral [8] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 82, a month - on - month decrease of 16; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 18, a month - on - month decrease of 3 [8] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit. The profit of rebar is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39%, a weekly change of - 1.3% [8] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, which is more suitable for rolling spot - futures positive arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [8] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodity fluctuations have increased, and leading varieties have experienced large - scale historical fluctuations [8] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are no obvious trading opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trading, and continue to roll the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils [8][9] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the output is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and inventory accumulation. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.98 (-0.12), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39% (-1.30%) [68][82][86] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Although safety production cuts have been tightened in some areas, the Fenwei output has increased this week. Next week, some coal mines will start to take holidays, and the output will gradually decline. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, but due to port storage capacity pressure, the high - level customs clearance has slowed down. The market trading is cold. The high - price overseas coal has faced increasing resistance from terminal users [68][94] - **Coke Supply**: The daily average coke output this week is 109.8 (-0.4), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11). Affected by production restrictions and cuts, the coking enterprise operation continues to decline [68][95] - **Inventory**: The downstream inventory replenishment has slowed down. The market is still in the winter inventory replenishment cycle, and the upstream inventory is being transferred to the downstream. The coking enterprises' replenishment of raw coal is basically coming to an end, while the steel mills still have inventory replenishment needs. The first round of coke price increase has finally been implemented, but the coking coal price has gradually declined, and the driving force of inventory replenishment on price is weakening [68][98] - **Basis/Spread**: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market sentiment has not been boosted. The cost of the first - round price - increased warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke in the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trading quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [68] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [68] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to cash in the spot at an appropriate time and wait for the opportunity to short the futures after the price rises. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [68] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a month - on - month decline of 4.2 tons per day to 418 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia decreased by 13.3 tons per day, that from Brazil increased by 3.8 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines increased by 5.2 tons per day to 89.8 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has increased by 47.9 tons per day month - on - month, with a decrease of 13.2 tons per day from Australia, an increase of 63.4 tons per day from Brazil, and a decrease of 2.4 tons per day from non - mainstream sources [118] - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills this period is basically stable at 227.98 tons (-0.12). The maintenance and resumption of production of steel mills in various regions are routine operations. The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% to 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, the molten iron output will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 27.19 tons to 347.71 tons. Therefore, with the decrease in the number of ships waiting at the port, the port inventory has increased by 261.73 tons, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [118] - **Inventory**: The daily average port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to a relatively high seasonal level, but the number of ships waiting at the port has decreased, so the port inventory has increased again, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [118] - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [118] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high. From a fundamental perspective, the in - plant inventory of steel mills is still at a relatively low level in recent years. However, the expectation of accelerated resumption of production by steel mills in February and the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival have a significant impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term [118] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long in the short term and shorting at the pressure level in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [118]

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has experienced a decline of over 5%, but there is potential for demand recovery post-Spring Festival, making it a possible investment opportunity during this pullback [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - By 2026, coal supply growth is expected to significantly decrease compared to previous periods, with a notable improvement in demand anticipated for 2026 due to constraints in 2025 [1] - The overall coal price is projected to steadily recover, supported by high heating demand and constrained supply in terms of production and imports [1] Group 2: Profitability and Valuation - The coal industry is expected to see improved profitability forecasts by 2026, with clear advantages in valuation and dividend yield for the sector [1] - The coal sector's dividend yield is notably high, with the index tracking a yield exceeding 6% over the past 12 months as of the end of 2025, enhancing its investment appeal in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the thermal coal segment, industrial demand is expected to decline seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, but heating demand will remain elevated [1] - For coking coal, current inventory levels are at a medium-low point, and there is an expectation for demand recovery in the peak season following the Spring Festival, indicating long-term upward potential for coal prices [1]

随着市场情绪转暖,双硅价格震荡向上。首先是当前国内经济韧性, 地产短期企稳复苏迹象明显,其次是板块轮动效应强 化,黑色受低估值强支撑,再者是市场资金充盈,流动性推动叙事不可小觑,而产业情绪谨慎,中下游低库存,补库需求释 放可期。需求端,直接需求和终端需求整体平淡,需求端短期暂时难有改善。供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏 高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。宏观方面,国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需 求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,产业政策对双硅的供给形成扰动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双 硅基本面延续承压,供给偏高而需求走弱。但短期市场情绪主导为主,双硅价格或偏强震荡 as ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27% 期货收盘价(活跃合约 400 3000 2500 200 500 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SO - 期货收益价(活跃合约):焦 1200 1000 | 铁矿基差(右轴) | 800 【焦煤焦炭】产业淡季驱动不足,跟随叙事震荡运行 | E .. . | 国贸期货出品 ...

策略研究 · 策略专题 2025 年业绩预告有哪些线索值得关注？ 2026 年 02 月 02 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 ：（010）80927721 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2026-01-23，公募基金 2025 年四季度持仓有哪些 看点？ 2026-01-06，如何理解"非理性繁荣"下的"理性 泡沫" ？——AI 泡沫系列研究之总量篇 2025-12-28，节奏看"水"，集中靠"质"——2026 年港股市场投资展望 2025-12-11，2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议对投 资的启示：向新向优 2025-12-08，12 月中央政 ...

记者近日从中国煤炭工业协会了解到，截至2025年底，全国已建成的煤矿智能化产能占比超过55%，同时，一批核心装备已实现完全国产化替代。 总工程师胡登高介绍，这个设备的效率实现节能5%到10%，满足6米以上大采高工作面的产品需求，年输送能力到了1500万吨。 0:00 / 2:13 山东菏泽的这家煤矿拥有15.8亿吨储量，核定产能600万吨优质炼焦煤，是华东地区能源保供的重点煤矿。但由于煤层大多在1000米上下，断层纵横交 错，强冲击地压等灾害风险并存，开采难度很大。 记者首先通过罐笼进入850米的立井，这相当于地面上300层楼的高度，2分多钟就来到了井底。在这里，记者换乘专用的防爆客车前往生产工作面。 0:00 / 1:27 最近，在河北张家口，由国能神东煤炭集团与中煤张煤机联合研发的智能高效刮板输送成套装备成功下线。作为井下采煤工作面的"钢铁动脉"，它首次 应用了大采高10kV高压供电系统，可有效降低长距离输电过程中损耗，减少电缆使用数量，提升运行效率的同时，降低运维成本。 中国煤炭工业协会数据显示，"十四五"期间，煤矿智能化建设提质加速，无人驾驶、人工智能深入推进。全国已建成煤矿智能化产能占比超过55%； ...