Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in Shanghai tin futures, with the main contract reaching a peak of 350,510.00 yuan and closing at 344,240.00 yuan, reflecting a 3.55% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures predicts that tin prices will experience wide fluctuations at high levels in the short term due to the market digesting geopolitical influences and a recovery in risk appetite driven by poor U.S. manufacturing data [2] - Wengang Futures suggests that while demand in the tin market is weak, improved supply expectations may lead to price fluctuations following market sentiment changes, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3] - Hualian Futures notes that domestic smelting enterprises maintained stable production in November, with a slight decrease in supply and a tight state of tin ore imports, while demand in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles remains robust [4] Group 2: Price Projections - The expected trading range for domestic main contracts is set between 300,000 and 350,000 yuan per ton, while the overseas tin price is projected to range from 39,000 to 43,000 USD per ton [3] - Hualian Futures indicates that the support level for long positions has shifted upwards to around 313,000-315,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold light long positions and consider protective put options [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].