Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The tourism volume is increasing while prices remain stable, with an extended travel radius. The focus is on policy support and advancements in AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - In April, the social service sector outperformed the benchmark by 1.42 percentage points, with strong performance from tourism and education stocks. The A-share scenic spots and leading education stocks led the gains, while Hong Kong stocks in the supply chain and tea beverage sectors also performed well [3][4][6] May Day Holiday Summary - Domestic spending during the holiday increased by 8.0%, with travel willingness remaining high and an extended travel radius. A total of 314 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The average spending per person increased by 1.5%, recovering to 90% of the 2019 level [3][9] Sub-Industries - **Inbound and Outbound Travel**: Inbound travel increased by 28.7% during the holiday, with significant growth in travelers from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and foreign visitors. The number of inbound foreign visitors under visa-free policies grew by 72.7% [3][21] - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel industry saw a REVPAR of 192 yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year, with occupancy rates and average daily rates also increasing. High-star hotels in county areas outperformed the overall industry [24][22] - **Scenic Spots**: Many scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, aided by favorable weather and local government promotional activities. For example, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism received 51.79% more visitors compared to last year [25][28] - **Dining**: Key monitored dining enterprises saw sales increase by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [29][30] - **Duty-Free Sales**: Duty-free shopping during the holiday saw a decline of 7% in sales, but the average spending per person remained stable [41][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from policy support and marginal improvements, including Tongcheng Travel, Xueda Education, Jiuhua Tourism, and others. Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, Huazhu Group, and others [3][42]

Group 1: Cloud Industry Insights - The four major North American cloud providers reported a total capital expenditure (capex) of $77.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% [1] - Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft maintained their optimistic capex guidance for 2025, while Meta raised its full-year capex guidance from $60 billion-$65 billion to $64 billion-$72 billion, alleviating market concerns [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks with strong performance growth and low valuations for Q1 2024 and 2025, quality dividend assets in telecom operators, and sectors like military communication and submarine cables that may see performance and valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Outlook - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, with steady growth in holiday consumption across most provinces and cities, driven by trade-in programs and emotional value consumption [2] - Increased travel willingness and diversified cultural tourism consumption are noted, alongside a boost in inbound tourism due to tax refund policies [2] - The report remains optimistic about the gradual improvement of the consumer sector's fundamentals and the revaluation of leading companies by 2025, supported by consumption stimulus policies [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry Forecast - The aviation industry is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, with increased international flight schedules and domestic demand being stimulated by the "924" policy [3] - The demand for civil aviation travel is anticipated to be further released in 2025, supported by an improved supply-demand balance and favorable oil and exchange rates [3] - The market is expected to open up further for ticket pricing, leading to enhanced profitability for airlines [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Development's controlling shareholder, Hainan Development Holdings, has extended the commitment period for injecting the controlling stake of Global Consumer Goods (Hainan) Trading Co., Ltd. into Hainan Development from May 12, 2025, to May 12, 2028, reflecting considerations for compliance, shareholder interests, and long-term planning for Hainan's duty-free business [1] Group 1: Commitment Adjustment - The adjustment of the commitment period aims to address the current operational data of Global Consumer Goods, which has not yet achieved profitability due to intensified market competition and high supply chain costs [2] - The new plan provides a "performance breakthrough window" of two years for Global Consumer Goods to achieve profitability, thereby solidifying the financial foundation for future asset injection [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Hainan Development Holdings has initiated a series of strategic partnerships, including a joint venture with Hainan Airport Group and a strategic cooperation with Avvolta, to enhance market expansion in Sanya [2] - The construction of the T3 terminal at Sanya Phoenix International Airport is expected to significantly increase passenger throughput, providing substantial commercial value for Global Consumer Goods [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Optimization - Hainan Development is accelerating the establishment of a "global direct procurement + smart warehousing" system, having reached direct procurement agreements with over 30 international brands, resulting in a 15% reduction in procurement costs [3] - The construction of an intelligent warehousing center in Yangpu Free Trade Port Area is expected to enhance inventory turnover by 40% and reduce logistics costs by 25% [3] Group 4: Market Potential and Policy Support - The duty-free business has become a core engine for Hainan Development's transformation into the large consumption sector, with projected sales of Hainan's offshore duty-free operations reaching 47.03 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Recent policy adjustments have significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm, with the number of visitors to Hainan expected to exceed 97.2 million in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The optimization of the asset injection commitment is seen as a strategic opportunity for Hainan Development, which aims to create an industrial matrix of "core duty-free business + tourism consumption" [4] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to further reduce operational costs for enterprises, enhancing market vitality and attracting more businesses to the duty-free sector [5]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，据交通运输部，五一假期前三日，全社会跨区域人员流 动总量91524万人次/同比+5.8%。结合携程数据，相较清明假期，五一黄金周游客出行距离呈现显著延 伸：五一期间跨市住宿订单占比已突破80%，连住两日及以上的深度游用户比例预期将达到20%。据国 家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长27%。 其中，受益于入境免签及境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"举措，携程数据显示今年五一入境游订单量 同比去年增长173%。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 五一假期前三日出游人次增长超预期，假期天数增加推动出行半径扩大 山东省：假期前三日，全省重点监测的200家旅游景区累计接待游客1648万人次/同比+7.5%，景区营业 收入合计9亿元/同比+8.1%，人均消费54.6元/同比+0.6%。上海迪士尼乐园：假期前三日，园区客流量 合计30万人次/同比+12.5%。 出入境人次维持高增长，免签政策推动入境游订单大增 据国家移民管理局预测，今年"五一"假期全国口岸日均出入境人员将达215万人次，较去年同期增长 27%。其中，受益于入境免签及境 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 60, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [6][10]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad and expand the CIPS network. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to promote the development of virtual power plants, targeting a national adjustment capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance the supply of refund goods and expand the number of duty-free stores. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Major Capital Inflows and Outflows - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows include Changshan Beiming (000158.SZ) with a net inflow of 1.036 billion, Ruixin Micro (603893.SH) with 613 million, and Southern Precision (002553.SZ) with 366 million [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows include Leo Group (002131.SZ) with a net outflow of 544 million, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) with 498 million, and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment (002555.SZ) with 419 million [13]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net short selling include Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) with 16 million, Yili Group (600887.SH) with 837 thousand, and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) with 462 thousand [14]. Industry Overview - The top ten industries with the highest net inflows include SW Computer with 210 million, SW Automotive with 194 million, and SW Machinery Equipment with 189 million [16][17]. - The top ten industries with the highest net outflows include SW Banking with -141 million, SW Non-Bank Financials with -91 million, and SW Basic Chemicals with -155 million [18].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 62, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][10]. - Recent policy support and improved market sentiment have led to an upward trend in the market, with historical data showing that a sentiment score below 30 provides support, while above 90 indicates resistance [10]. Theme Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Jinwang (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to advance virtual power plant development, targeting a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance inbound consumption. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of funds, with Liou Co., Ltd. (002131) leading at 884.26 million yuan, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) at 581.87 million yuan [11][12]. - The report also highlights the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow, with Shenghong Technology (300476) showing a net outflow of -389.52 million yuan, followed by Huayin Power (600744) at -387.68 million yuan [13][23]. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating that the machinery and home appliance sectors have seen significant net inflows, while the public utilities and food and beverage sectors have experienced notable net outflows [17][18].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 48, categorizing it as "neutral" [6][11][22] - Recent market trends show a gradual upward movement supported by improved market sentiment and policy backing [11] - Historical sentiment trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [11] Group 2 - Key themes tracked include cross-border payments, virtual power plants, and duty-free shopping [7] - The cross-border payment theme is driven by the People's Bank of China's initiative to enhance cross-border financial services, with related stocks including Cross-Border Pass (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [7] - The virtual power plant initiative aims for a national adjustment capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030, with related stocks such as Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7] - The duty-free shopping theme is supported by a new policy to optimize exit tax refund policies, with related stocks including China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7] Group 3 - The report provides a list of stocks with significant net inflows, including Dazhi Technology (600589) with a net inflow of 464.47 million and Hangang Co. (600126) with 246.20 million [12] - It also highlights stocks with significant net outflows, such as Tuo Wei Information (002261) with a net outflow of -825.75 million and BYD (002594) with -725.89 million [14][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financing net purchases and securities lending net sales as indicators of market sentiment and investor behavior [23]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued a notice to optimize the departure tax refund policy and expand inbound consumption, leading to a surge in related A-share retail and duty-free stocks [1] - Wangfujing reported that 26 stores have been approved for departure tax refund services, including 10 stores providing "buy and refund" services [1] - Wushang Group plans to complete the first batch of departure tax refund store applications by April 2025 [1] Group 2 - Kenen Health confirmed that its products fall within the "buy and refund" scope under the current policy [2] - New World City is enhancing its services around departure tax refunds and international payment, including the addition of 21 new payment devices [2] - The State Council reported that inbound traveler spending is projected to reach $94.2 billion in 2024, a 77.8% increase year-on-year, indicating significant growth potential for inbound consumption [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities noted that the optimization of departure tax refund policies will boost inbound tourism and shopping, positively impacting domestic consumption [3] - The long-term market potential for departure tax refunds is substantial, with a focus on the upcoming "May Day" travel peak [3]

2025.04. 28 导读 ： 离境退税政策再优化；五一旅游市场热度持续攀升；解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场动态，把握投资先机。 1、政策加码优化离境退税流程，免税产业链各环节有望直接受益 近日，商务部等6部门发布《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》。从推动离境退税商店增量扩容、丰富离境退税商品供给、提升离境退税 服务水平三方面提出8条具体措施。 通知提出，下调离境退税起退点。境外旅客同日同店购买退税物品金额达到2 0 0元人民币，且符合其他相关规定的，可以申请办理离境退税；优化离境退税 支付服务，将现金退税限额上调至2 0 0 0 0元人民币。 【第一财经智享会员专属】 【 今 日 速 读 】 精选行业研报，助您捕捉行业风口 【精选快读】 1、 政策加码优化离境退税流程，免税产业链各环节有望直接受益 2、五一旅游市场热度持续攀升，消费板块配置吸引力提升 商务部副部长盛秋平2 7日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，进一步优化离境退税政策，有利于推动离境退税销售额继续快速增长，为提振消费注入新动力、拓 展新空间。下一步，商务部将积极会同相关部门加快推进政策落实落地，不断提高离境退税服务质量和水平，让 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant strategic decision by the Chinese government to respond to global trade changes and enhance domestic consumption, especially in light of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" [2][35] - The year 2025 marks a critical milestone for Hainan Free Trade Port as it aims to achieve "closure," allowing for a unique operational model where goods can flow freely between Hainan and international markets while being regulated for entry into mainland China [2][14] - Hainan is expected to become a "tax haven" due to four key policies: 1) Exemption from tariffs for products with over 30% value-added processing; 2) Zero tariffs on non-negative list goods post-closure; 3) A reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for qualifying businesses; 4) A progressive personal income tax structure capped at 15% [2][28][30] Group 2 - Hainan is positioned as a dual circulation hub, leveraging its geographical advantages to attract global capital, particularly from foreign enterprises seeking access to the Chinese market [12][31] - The tourism sector is being developed to attract international visitors and promote high-end consumption, with initiatives like duty-free shopping and international medical tourism [41][46] - The report highlights the rapid growth of new enterprises in Hainan, with over 150,000 new companies established annually from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust investment environment [33]