格隆汇12月23日｜长江证券研报指出，中国中免中标上海机场免税项目，深化利益绑定。此前中免通过 控股日上经营机场（中免持股51%，上海机场持股16%)来运营上海机场免税店，新模式下，上海机场持 股比例从16%提升至49%，实现利益高度绑定，有利于共同做大GMV。展望后市，中国中免是我国免税 行业领军企业，经过40年的发展，已经积累了渠道、规模、精细化运营管理、品牌等多维度的核心竞争 优势。海南离岛免税销售额同比企稳回升，机场口岸等销售额有望继续随着出境游人次增加而增长，预 计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为36.9/42.7/49.7亿元，对应当前股价的PE 分别为46/40/34X，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.05%, and ChiNext Index up 0.14% [1] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 600 billion, a decrease of over 30 billion compared to the previous day at the same time, with an expected total trading amount of over 1.8 trillion for the day [1] Sector Performance - Insurance, oil, and semiconductor sectors showed significant gains, while tourism and hotel catering sectors experienced declines [1] - The PCB concept and non-ferrous tungsten concept saw strong fluctuations [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary countervailing measures on imported dairy products from the EU starting December 23 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange set new trading limits and fee adjustments for silver futures contracts effective December 24 [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that global liquidity expectations have improved, and risk appetite has rebounded, leading to a recovery in global stock markets [2] - The firm maintains a "light index, heavy structure" approach, recommending low-position sectors such as precious metals, automobiles, computers, media, and real estate [2] - Caution remains among institutional investors as the market shows a shrinking volume overall [2] Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - The Hainan sector experienced a significant surge following the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation [3] - On the first day of closure, Sanya's duty-free sales reached 118 million [3] - The sector is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies and an increase in store coverage and customer base [3] Market Trends - The market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 60-day moving average, indicating a battleground for bulls and bears [3] - The ChiNext Index strongly recovered above the 10-day moving average, with trading volume exceeding 130 billion [3] - The market is approaching resistance levels, and if trading volume does not continue to increase, short-term fluctuations are likely [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, surging 15% before a decline of over 5% in early trading, currently priced at 77.6 HKD with a trading volume of 599 million HKD [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 18, the Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced full island closure operations, resulting in duty-free shopping amounts reaching 161 million CNY, with 24,800 shoppers and 118,000 items sold, representing year-on-year increases of 61%, 53.1%, and 25.5% respectively [1] - From December 18 to 20, Sanya's total duty-free sales exceeded 100 million CNY for three consecutive days, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.8% and 47% on December 19 and 20 respectively [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities released a report indicating that the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure, combined with the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival holiday boosts, will allow the company to fully benefit from policy incentives and festive consumption [1] - The report also noted that the policy benefits from the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure will gradually manifest, with limited impact expected in 2025 and the main effects anticipated to be seen in 2026 [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，免税概念板块领涨，上涨1.22%。其中，海汽集团上涨10.02%，海南发展上涨10.01%，凯 撒旅业上涨7.07%，海峡股份、海南机场、海南高速涨超4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Zone index in the A-share market has seen a significant rise, reaching a historical high, driven by strong performances from various stocks in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone index has increased for three consecutive days, with individual stocks such as Shennong Agricultural (up over 18%) and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical (up over 13%) leading the gains [1] - Other notable performers include Antong Holdings, Hainan Haiyao, and Hainan Development, all hitting the daily limit up of 10% [1] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the year-to-date performance of these stocks, with Shennong Agricultural showing a 115.52% increase and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical at 206.12% [2] Group 2: Sales Growth in Duty-Free Shops - Sanya's duty-free sales reached 1.18 billion yuan on the first day of customs closure, with daily sales on subsequent days showing significant year-on-year growth of 45.8% and 47% [1] - The strong sales figures indicate a robust demand for duty-free shopping, which is expected to continue as the region develops its tourism and retail sectors [1] Group 3: Future Development Opportunities - According to Industrial Securities, the Hainan Free Trade Port aims to establish itself as a regional offshore international trade center, presenting multiple development opportunities [1] - Key strategies include enhancing cooperation with Hong Kong, advancing high-end manufacturing, and optimizing duty-free policies to attract more consumers [1]

12月22日A股主要指数集体收涨，沪指涨0.69%报3917.36点，深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%领涨市场。沪 深两市合计成交额1.86万亿元，较前一交易日放量约1360亿元。个股方面2836股上涨，2133股下跌，题材板块多 数涨幅居前。 今日，A股十大人气热股如下：海南发展、山子高科、神剑股份、中国中免、通宇通讯、东百集团、平潭发展、 卧龙电驱、安记食品、航天发展。 | 热度排名 | 人气个股 | 热度值 | 所属概念 | | 热度标签 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | 海南发展 | 9. 25 | 海南自贸区, | 免税店 | 2天2板 | | 2 | 山千高科 | 9. 25 | 汽车拆解概念,华为汽车 | | 2天2板 | | 3 | 神剑股份 | 9 | | 车氏融合, 商业航天 | 3天3板 | | 4 | 中国中免 | 8. 25 | 免税店, | 自由贸易港 | 首板涨停 | | 5 | 通宇通讯 | 8 | | 商业航天,卫星导航 | 首板涨停 | | 6 | 东直集团 | 7 | 免税店, | 福建自贸区 | 持续上 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a significant increase on December 22, with nearly 3,000 stocks rising and over a hundred hitting the daily limit, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to rebound above 3,900 points [1][2] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 18.822 billion yuan, an increase of 1.335 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Hainan Free Trade Port Concept - The Hainan Free Trade Port concept experienced a strong resurgence, with over 20 stocks, including Hainan Airport and Hainan Highway, hitting the daily limit [2][4] - China Duty Free Group, a leading player in the duty-free sector, also saw its stock rise to a limit, closing at 91.09 yuan per share with a trading volume of 7.834 billion yuan and a total market capitalization of 188.5 billion yuan [2] Consumption and Policy Impact - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 led to a significant increase in duty-free shopping, with sales amounting to 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61% [4] - The policy framework aims to enhance operational efficiency and market activity, which is expected to boost tourism and retail sectors in Hainan [4] Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly the computing and semiconductor industries, showed strong performance, with stocks like DingTong Technology and KeMa Technology reaching their daily limit [5] - The global optical module market is projected to exceed $37 billion by 2029, with significant demand expected for 800G and 1.6T optical modules by 2025 [5] Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Huafu Securities suggest that a year-end rally may have begun, driven by consumer spending and improved market liquidity, with a focus on technology stocks [7] - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that the current market environment and historical patterns suggest a focus on growth and consumer sectors, with potential for significant capital inflow [8]

中免大涨，免税板块更新 20251222 摘要 2025 年初海南离岛免税销售额曾出现同比下降，但自 9 月起开始转正， 10 月、11 月增速分别达 11%和 13%。中免集团表现更优，8 月已转 正，10 月、11 月同比增长分别达 16%和 29%，市场占有率提升。 2025 年海南离岛免税销售额增长主要由客单价提升驱动，尤其 10 月后 客单价同比增长超 30%，苹果手机和黄金等高单价商品表现突出。客流 呈现个位数增长，转化率边际企稳。 海南封关政策对离岛免税产生显著影响。12 月 18 日封关首日，中免全 海南日销超过 2.5 亿，同比增长 90%；第二天仍有 70%左右的高增。 三亚市口径数据显示，封关首日全市日销同比增长 46%，随后两天持续 增长。 封关后旅游及商务客流均提升。元旦飞往三亚机票预定量同比增长 51%，春节飞往三亚与海口机票预定量分别同比增长 80%与 130%。 境外前往海南机票预订量同比增长 82%（12 月 18 日至 2026 年 1 月 3 日）。 海南封关后加大消费券力度，如通用券（满 6,000 减 300 至满 5 万减 4,000）和岛民专享券（满 1,000 ...

汇率、股市与扩大内需 20251222 摘要 Q&A 最近人民币汇率走强，但股市表现较弱，这种"汇强股弱"的现象在历史上并 不常见。请问这种背离现象的原因是什么？未来谁会向谁收敛？ 最近人民币汇率走强，而股市表现较弱，这种"汇强股弱"的组合在历史上确 实比较少见，通常只出现在很短的阶段性时期。这种背离现象可能与多方面因 素有关。首先，从宏观经济数据来看，美国最近公布的非农就业数据和 CPI 数 据对市场产生了显著影响。非农就业数据虽然整体好于预期，但失业率提升和 工资增速回落，使得美联储降息预期得以维持。而 11 月份 CPI 数据的大幅回 落，尽管存在统计上的问题，也进一步强化了市场对美联储宽松政策的预期。 从国内因素来看，人民币升值主要是因为美元走软以及中国经济基本面的相对 稳定。然而，股市表现疲弱则反映出投资者对国内经济增长前景和企业盈利能 力的担忧。特别是消费板块，由于基本面疲软，即使政策信号有所增强，但市 场信心仍不足。 未来，股市和汇率之间可能会出现一定程度的收敛。如果国内 政策能够有效刺激内需和消费，并且全球经济环境保持稳定，那么股市有望逐 步企稳并反弹。同时，如果美国新任美联储主席采取更为宽松 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The company has recently won the bid for duty-free store projects at Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, which is expected to enhance profit-sharing and operational efficiency [2][6] - The new revenue model includes a base fee plus a commission structure, which is rationalized, indicating potential profitability for the operating entities [2][8] - The company is positioned as a leader in China's duty-free industry, with significant competitive advantages accumulated over 40 years, including channel access, scale, and refined operational management [2][8] Summary by Sections Event Description - The company’s subsidiary has received a bid notification confirming the award for duty-free operations at two major airports in Shanghai, with a total operational area of approximately 12,101.53 square meters [6][7] - The investment structure involves a joint venture with a 51% stake held by the company and a 49% stake by Shanghai Airport, with a total investment of 102 million yuan [6][7] Revenue Model - The operational transfer period follows a "5+3" model, with a fixed monthly fee and a commission based on actual sales, ensuring a stable revenue stream [7] - The fixed fees are set at 3,090 yuan/m²/month for Pudong Airport and 2,827 yuan/m²/month for Hongqiao Airport, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in sales as outbound travel increases, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 3.69 billion, 4.27 billion, and 4.97 billion yuan respectively [2][8] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the duty-free market, with anticipated growth in sales driven by increased passenger traffic at airports [2][8]