另据太空任务追踪网站信息，备受期待的长征十二号甲（CZ-12A）可回收火箭计划于12月23日上午发 射。此次发射标志着国家"国家队"正式加入可回收火箭的实战竞技场。尽管市场对首次试验的预期理 性，但其进展将直接影响我国迈向"低成本、高频次"航天发射时代的进程。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期，我国商业航天迎来密集催化，推动卫星板块成为市场最强主线之一。截至12月22日，卫星产业 ETF(159218)强势收涨1.73%，实现惊人的 "10连阳"，年内价格创下第28次历史新高。其核心权重股中 国卫星表现尤为亮眼，盘中一度触及涨停，股价创下逾10年来新高。 消息面，商业航天领域IPO传来重磅进展。12月23日，证监会网站显示，蓝箭航天IPO辅导状态已变更 为"辅导工作完成"，这意味着蓝箭航天在资本市场的征程迈出重要一步。据悉，蓝箭航天辅导机构为中 金公司，辅导备案日期为今年7月29日。 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The market anticipates a 58 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 following the release of U.S. employment data, with a 31% probability of a rate cut in January [1] - Key future focus areas include the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus, and actual measures to expand domestic demand [1] Satellite Internet - Sellers indicate that key launch projects are ready and awaiting coordination for new timelines [1] - The IPO of Electronic Science and Technology Blue Sky has been approved, positioning it as a core supplier for aerospace power [1] - Recent catalysts include the Hainan Wenchang Conference and multiple commercial rocket maiden flights [1] - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Consumer Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance consumer willingness and implement special actions to boost consumption [1] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission has identified expanding domestic demand as the top priority for next year [1] - Three departments have issued documents encouraging the use of digital RMB smart contract red envelopes to promote consumption [1] - Related ETFs: Consumer ETF (on-market: 510150, off-market link: 217017), Food and Beverage ETF (on-market: 159843) [1] Robotics - Sellers report that prototype demonstrations will occur after Christmas, with new suppliers and sales strategies to be introduced in March, while dexterous hands are undergoing rapid iteration [1] - Related ETFs: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] Artificial Intelligence - NVIDIA has released the Nemotron 3 family of open-source models [1] - Ant Group's AI health application "Antifortune" has reached third place on the Apple app rankings [1] - The Volcano Engine Conference on the 18th will focus on the Doubao large model, edge AI, and Agent ecosystem [1] - Reports suggest that Google's Asian supply chain visits are intensifying, with an expected procurement of 4 million TPUs next year [1] - Related ETFs: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market link: 018385) [1] Autonomous Driving - Hongmeng Zhixing and Xpeng have been approved to begin internal testing of L3 autonomous driving [1] - Horizon Robotics has set a target of 5.5 million chip shipments for 2026, a 30% increase from previous expectations [1] - Related ETFs: Consumer Electronics 50 ETF (on-market: 159779, off-market link: 016007) [1] Market Observation - On December 16, trading volume was 1.7242 trillion, a decrease of 49.3 billion [2] - The index retraced to 3816 points, with strong performance in sectors such as retail, beauty care, and social services [2] - The satellite sector experienced fluctuations but rebounded, while intelligent driving and AI liquid cooling showed performance in the adjustment phase [2] - The market is expected to follow a "first suppress then rise" pattern, with strong resilience in the consumer sector and opportunities for layout in technology and satellite themes during adjustments [2]

敏锐的资金正加速涌入这一高确定性赛道。市场核心投资工具——卫星产业ETF(159218) 成为资金布局的鲜明风向标。数据显示，其在近3个月日均成交 额、上市以来资金净流入及最新规模三项关键指标上，均稳居全市场同标的ETF首位。该基金紧密跟踪的中证卫星产业指数，在同类指数中航天装备权重占 比最高，"纯正"聚焦商业航天产业链，为投资者提供了高效布局这一市场核心主线的便捷工具。 2025年，被业界公认为全球商业航天迈入规模化、商业化闭环的"爆发元年"。产业正以前所未有的速度重构：全球年度发射次数预计首度突破320次，标志 性企业SpaceX估值飙升至8000亿美元并启动有望成为史上最大规模的IPO。与此同时，中国"十五五"规划首次将商业航天纳入顶层设计，从设立专项基金到 开辟上市"绿色通道"，政策红利密集释放。中美两大经济体的共同推动，正驱动商业航天从"仰望星空"迈向"脚踏实地"的产业爆发。 本轮浪潮的显著特征是资本覆盖全产业链。随着火箭发射成本呈现断崖式下降，资本投入已从单纯的火箭制造，全面延伸至卫星制造、星座运营、下游应用 （通信、导航、遥感）及核心部件等每一个环节。在顶层设计强力支撑、海量资本加持以及规模化订 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the satellite communication industry, particularly focusing on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems [6]. Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication sector is entering a critical phase of large-scale deployment and commercialization, driven by the acceleration of global digitalization and the emergence of new application scenarios [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant improvements in system efficiency and cost reduction due to technological advancements, such as enhanced on-board processing (OBP) capabilities and the maturity of phased array antenna technology [3][4]. - The Chinese government has included satellite internet in its "new infrastructure" initiatives, supporting the development of autonomous LEO satellite constellations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global satellite industry is projected to generate approximately $293 billion in revenue by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 1.57% from 2019 to 2024 [12]. - The revenue from satellite manufacturing is expected to reach $20.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 17% [15][16]. Technological Trends - The report emphasizes that the enhancement of OBP capabilities allows satellites to perform more data routing and computing functions, reducing reliance on ground stations [3][4]. - The widespread use of reusable launch vehicles is expected to alleviate launch bottlenecks and continuously lower the cost per bit of transmission, facilitating large-scale user access [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the revenue from ground equipment is currently the highest in the global satellite industry, but as OBP technologies mature, the reliance on ground stations is expected to decrease, leading to increased revenue shares for satellite manufacturing and services [4]. - The demand for consumer broadband terminals, IoT devices, and specialized communication equipment is anticipated to grow, presenting unprecedented market opportunities for domestic companies with core hardware development capabilities [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading suppliers of satellite payload manufacturing and navigation modules, as the optimization of launch costs and operational efficiencies is expected to drive growth in downstream service applications [5].

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 布局"春季躁动"行情，低吸科技成长方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（12.22-12.26） 2025 年 12 月 21 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -1.25 1.53 15.03 沪深 300 0.00 1.56 15.89 -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。从"日历效应"来看，从中央经济工作会议至次年全国两会召开 期间，A 股市场通常演绎"春季躁动"行情。我们统计了 2009 年至 2025 年 "春季躁动"行情表现，万得全 A 指数的平均上涨时间为 57 天，平均上涨幅 度为 18.30%，其中大盘蓝筹股在第四季度（尤其是 12 月份）表现较佳，科技 成长股在第一季度（尤其是 2 月份）表现较佳。随着 11 月份经济数据公布以 及海外三大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市场 ...

Group 1 - Satellite concept stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with China Satellite and Zhenlei Technology rising over 3%, and Aerospace Electronics, Zhongke Xingtou, and Siwei Tuxin increasing over 2% [1] - Satellite-related ETFs rose approximately 2% due to market influence [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance includes: - E Fund Satellite ETF (code: 563530) at 1.200, up 0.026 (2.21%) - Satellite ETF (code: 563230) at 1.204, up 0.024 (2.03%) - Satellite Industry ETF (code: 159218) at 1.463, up 0.028 (1.95%) - GF Satellite ETF (code: 512630) at 1.203, up 0.023 (1.95%) [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that China is at a similar stage to SpaceX during 2018-2020, as it approaches a dense launch period with G60 Qianfan and GW National Grid [2] - The satellite manufacturing process is transitioning from laboratory customization to assembly line production, with suppliers providing standardized power, communication, and attitude control systems expected to realize performance gains first [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising while the ChiNext Index declines, driven by strong performances in the aerospace and satellite internet sectors, particularly through the General Aviation ETF Huabao (159231) which rose by 2.03% [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The General Aviation ETF Huabao (159231) has shown a strong technical pattern, breaking above all moving averages and forming a "one bullish engulfing candle covering two bearish candles" pattern, indicating a potential key phase in its upward movement [1]. - Among the 50 constituent stocks, 70% experienced gains, with Tianyin Electromechanical hitting a 20% limit up at one point and closing up by 16.53%, while Aerospace Huanyu and Zhongke Xingtong rose by over 14% and 10% respectively [3][9]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Insights - A report from Huaxi Securities indicates a significant cost restructuring in the global commercial aerospace launch sector, where traditional rockets have hardware manufacturing costs constituting about 67%, while emerging commercial rockets reduce this to around 24% through reusable designs, creating a sustainable model [4][9]. - Companies like SpaceX have established a continuous optimization model characterized by increased reuse, higher launch frequency, and reduced unit costs, while Chinese commercial aerospace firms are making rapid technological advancements and cost reductions [4][9]. Group 3: Satellite Industry Developments - According to a report from Kaiyuan Securities, low Earth orbit satellite constellations are becoming a new battleground for major powers, with the satellite industry market space targeting trillions, as the competition for frequency resources accelerates the transition from the "investment incubation period" to the "profit realization period" [5][10]. - The satellite manufacturing and launch segments of the supply chain are expected to benefit first from this peak in network formation, indicating a favorable environment for investment in the satellite industry [5][10]. Group 4: General Aviation ETF Overview - The General Aviation ETF Huabao (159231) and its linked funds comprehensively cover 50 constituent stocks across various sectors, including low-altitude economy, large aircraft, military aircraft, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and drones, with the aerospace sector accounting for over 37% of the index [6][11]. - The ETF is positioned as a strategic tool for investing in the Chinese aerospace industry chain, focusing on technological barriers and core commercial aspects, benefiting from both domestic demand and military trade [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with active performance in the satellite and commercial aerospace sectors, highlighted by significant gains in satellite-themed ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple satellite-themed ETFs from various fund companies, including Yongying Fund and China Merchants Fund, have surged over 3% on December 18, with cumulative gains exceeding 20% over the past four weeks [1] - The Yongying National Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF has surpassed a scale of 3 billion, while other satellite-themed ETFs remain below 1 billion [2] Group 2: Policy and Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing a surge, driven by favorable policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries including aerospace [3] - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Department by the National Space Administration and the issuance of guidelines to promote satellite communication industry development signal a strategic opportunity for the satellite industry [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Recent successful launches of low-orbit satellites by China Star Network and the resumption of the "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan indicate a normalization in satellite internet launches, with significantly reduced intervals between launches [4] - The successful test flight of the large liquid rocket by private company Blue Arrow Aerospace addresses the long-standing issue of insufficient launch capacity, potentially accelerating the progress of low-orbit satellite communication [4] - Future developments in commercial aerospace and 6G are expected to be key focus areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with applications such as rocket reusability and satellite direct connection anticipated to boost market sentiment [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.85% and 1.81% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,059.2 billion yuan, an increase of 19 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,600 stocks rising [1] Satellite Industry Insights - The satellite industry is experiencing significant catalysts, including the upcoming maiden flights of several private rockets expected to break the capacity bottleneck by 2025, which will facilitate the development of the satellite industry [2] - The acceleration of satellite launches is evident, with the GW constellation's launch speed increasing after personnel changes, and the successful resumption of the G60 constellation's launches, which has initiated a new round of financing [2] - The release of Huawei's Mate80, which supports dual satellite communication and omnidirectional satellite calling, is anticipated to open up new market opportunities for the industry [2] Industry Growth Potential - The satellite industry is projected to have substantial long-term growth potential, with satellites being crucial infrastructure for the future interconnected world, responsible for vital data and information transmission tasks [2] - The domestic market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% by 2030 [2] - The E Fund Satellite ETF (563530) tracks the CSI Satellite Industry Index, covering the entire industry chain and focusing on high application ratios, aligning with long-term industry development trends [2]

Group 1 - The satellite industry is experiencing significant growth, with the satellite industry ETF (159218) opening up 0.79% today, and several companies such as Zhennuo Technology and Changjiang Communication seeing gains of over 5% [1] - SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans for 2026, with an internal valuation reaching $800 billion, potentially setting a record for the largest IPO in history. By November 2025, Starlink is expected to have over 8 million users across more than 150 countries [1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights that satellite internet is reshaping the new generation of global connectivity infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities notes that space computing can address current data center cooling and power supply bottlenecks, with solar panels in the correct orbital position producing energy at eight times the rate compared to Earth [2] - Companies like Starcloud and Google are planning to build data centers in space, with Starcloud already launching its first satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 [2] - The satellite industry ETF (159218) tracks the CSI Satellite Industry Index, covering various segments including satellite manufacturing, ground equipment, navigation, and communication, with top holdings including Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite [2]