Macro - Federal Reserve official Harmack stated that current interest rates are close to neutral levels and may remain unchanged for a long time [1] Central Bank - The central bank announced plans to lower bank liability costs to promote low comprehensive financing costs in society and will normalize government bond trading operations [2] Artificial Intelligence - The sell-side believes that AI safety and identification sectors are entering the early stages of regulatory catalysts, with the National Copyright Administration launching a special action for film copyright protection [2] - AI applications such as Doubao and Qianwen are launching Spring Festival activities and new features, including movie ticket purchases and red envelope distribution [2] - New image generation model Seedream 5.0 has been launched by Jianying [2] - A legendary programmer proposed the idea of using ultra-long optical fibers to replace memory; Amazon plans to launch an AI content trading market; Google intends to issue a century bond [2] Robotics - Alibaba's Damo Academy has open-sourced the embodied brain model RynnBrain, granting robots the ability to have spatiotemporal memory [2] Satellite - Zhejiang Province proposed exploring the construction of a multi-dimensional computing power integration system and forward-looking layout of spatiotemporal intelligence and space computing infrastructure [3] Semiconductor - IPO progress: Shenghe Jingwei's Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO will be reviewed on February 24 [3] - Price increase dynamics: LianYade has raised prices for most LED display products; the latest performance guidance from SMIC and TSMC indicates stable industry demand [3] Future Industries - Qiushi Network published an article outlining six major directions for future industries, covering metaverse, brain-computer interfaces, quantum information, humanoid robots, generative artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, future networks, and new energy storage [4] Strategy Observation - On Tuesday, trading volume was 2.11 trillion, further shrinking; the index is in a shrinking oscillation pattern before the holiday, with clear pressure above and support below [5] - The media sector (AI applications, copyright, film), home appliances, and coal led the gains, showing a mixed rotation characteristic [5] - After a broad market rally, funds quickly focused on the most short-term attention-grabbing ByteDance AI applications and computing power sectors, driving the entire media sector [5] - However, there is internal logic differentiation within the media sector, and caution is advised regarding chasing high [5] - Other sectors that surged yesterday, such as optical modules and space photovoltaics, mostly adjusted moderately, but the trend remains intact [5] - Robotics and other sectors are experiencing a rebound in the rotation [5] - The market lacks unexpected catalysts before the holiday, maintaining structural rotation; the strategy should focus on familiar main lines or seize low-buy opportunities during rotation [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The market is currently in an upward trend, with the core observation being whether the profit-making effect is positive. The market trend line is near 6800 points, and the profit-making effect is at the zero value edge, suggesting the potential for a halt in the upward trend [5][8]. - The short-term outlook indicates continued outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300 ETF, which is exerting pressure on the index. A significant drop in non-ferrous metals has also dampened short-term risk appetite [7][8]. - The industry trend configuration model suggests waiting for reversal signals in the liquor and real estate sectors, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with a significant distance of 6.77% between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages, indicating a continued upward trend [5][9]. - The market experienced a decline of 1.59% last week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) down 2.55% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) down 2.56%. The CSI 300 saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while the SSE 50 rose by 1.13% [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio of the WIND All A index is at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [9][11]. Positioning Recommendations - The report recommends a 70% allocation to absolute return products based on the WIND All A index, reflecting a cautious but optimistic stance on market conditions [9][10]. - The performance trend model highlights the importance of focusing on the computing power-related industry chain and suggests waiting for significant volume reductions in high-performing cyclical sectors such as industrial non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][14].

证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在延 续，主题投资重回主线》2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 报告摘要 趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 上周周报（20260125）认为：尽管 ETF 份额的持续下降，对市场有短线压力，但在 每日近 3 万亿金额的成交下，预计影响也较为有限，市场上行趋势仍将延续。最终 WIND 全 A 在 ETF 份额持续下降的影响和周五周期股大幅回调的影响下，全周下跌 1.59%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 下跌 2.55%，中盘股中证 500 指数下跌 2.56 ...

A股今日集体调整，截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%，北证50指数跌 1.45%，沪深京三市成交额32806亿元，较上日放量1625亿元，三市超3700只个股飘绿。 板块题材上， 黄金、有色金属、动物疫苗、保险、油气开采及服务、化工、猪肉板块涨幅居前；商业航天、大飞机、 军工装备、光刻机、半导体、机器人、量子科技、AI手机概念股跌幅居前。 ETF方面，国际金价站上5100美元/盎司，黄金、有色资源股全线爆发，华安基金黄金股票ETF、平 安基金黄金股票ETF基金、黄金股ETF工银、国泰基金黄金股票ETF均涨超8%。有色板块全线上扬，有 色矿业ETF招商、国泰基金矿业ETF分别涨6.31%和6.23%。油气股表现强势，能源ETF广发涨4.39%。 商业航天板块全线回落，卫星ETF、卫星产业ETF和卫星ETF广发分别跌8.16%、7.97%和7.91%。 半导体设备板块走低，半导体设备ETF跌4%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and North Star 50 Index fell by 0.74%, 0.86%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,631 billion yuan, an increase of 3,495 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the most significant gains included gold, non-ferrous metals, avian influenza, oil and gas, insurance, chemicals, securities, and port shipping [1] - Conversely, the sectors that faced the largest declines were commercial aerospace, military equipment, gaming, photolithography, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and AI mobile phone concepts [1] ETF Performance - International gold prices surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, leading to a surge in gold and non-ferrous resource stocks [1] - The following ETFs saw notable increases: Ping An Fund Gold Stock ETF rose by 7.34%, ICBC Gold Stock ETF by 7.33%, and Guotai Fund Gold Stock ETF by 6.95% [1] - Oil and gas stocks also performed strongly, with Huatai Bairui Oil and Gas ETF increasing by 6% [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a widespread decline, with satellite ETFs and related funds dropping significantly: Satellite ETF fell by 6.85%, Satellite Industry ETF by 6.77%, and Guangfa Satellite ETF by 6.6% [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector also saw a downturn, with the E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF decreasing by 4% [1]

分析指出，本次调整是前期涨幅过大、估值透支与 "利好出尽"情绪集中释放共同作用的结果。自去年 末以来，板块在"商业航天第一股"上市预期、全球巨头激进技术愿景及国内星座组网计划等多重史诗级 催化下，走出了一轮脱离短期基本面的强劲行情，积累了丰厚的获利盘。当前，随着部分核心催化剂逐 步兑现，市场对产业长期高确定性与短期过高估值之间的平衡点进行重估，资金选择阶段性获利了结， 属于典型的技术性修正。 | 卫星产业ETF | | 159218 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.082 | | -0.150 -6.72% | | SZSE CNY 11:21:00 交易中 | | ■ / @ + | | 净值走势 | 招商中证卫星产业ETF | | | 文年 17.83% 120日 | | 84.57% | | 5日 0.77% 250日 | | 0.00% | | 20日 32.78% 52周高 | | 2.40 | | 60日 66.83% 52周低 | | 0.98 | | 实时申购随回信息 | 由胸 | 陸回 | | 笔数 | 159 | 30 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 1 ...

1月26日，前期炙手可热的卫星与商业航天赛道突现巨震。截至上午11时22分，两融标的卫星产业 ETF(159218)盘中一度暴跌8.06%放量调整迹象明显。板块内人气龙头 信科移动-U、中国卫星、中科星 图等均位居跌幅前列，市场情绪显著降温。然而，与盘面跌势形成鲜明对比的是，据行情数据测算，有 超2.8亿元的资金选择在下跌中逆势涌入该ETF，呈现出"越跌越买"的特征。 | 卫星产业ETF | | 159218 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.082 | | -0.150 -6.72% | | SZSE CNY 11:21:00 交易中 | | 十八郎 | | 净值走势 | | 招商中证卫星产业ETF | | 文年 | 17.83% 120日 | 84.57% | | 5日 | 0.77% 250日 | 0.00% | | 20日 | 32.78% 52周高 | 2.40 | | 60日 | 66.83% 52周低 | 0.98 | | 实时申购睡回信息 | 由购 | 陸回 | | 笔数 | 159 | 30 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 1.63亿 | 3000万 | 风 ...

市场分析称，具体产业布局上，《规划》提出了打造航天发射与试验、火箭制造与测试、卫星制造与检 测应用、航天数据备份与应用、航天技术勤务保障、航天后勤、航天文旅7大产业。《规划》为酒泉商 业航天产业高质量发展提供了规划指导和行动纲领，利好商业航天产业发展。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 1月23日，卫星板块持续强势。卫星产业ETF(159218)收涨10.00%，前几大权重股方面，中国卫星，航 天电子涨停封板，中国卫通涨9.65%，中科星图涨16.03%。成交额约14.5亿。 | 卫星产业ETF(SZ:159218) 可避 可转 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ¥2.232 +0.203 +10.00% | | 日收盘 D1-23 15:04:21 北京时间 | 1.61 力绿友大注 | | | 赋高:2.232 今开:2.050 | 蛋傳:2.232 | 成交 : 671.70万手 | | | | 是低:2.032 阳收:2.029 | 跌停:1.826 | 成交额:14.47亿 | | | | 梅手:一 市价:2.232 | 单位净值:2.029 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors, so there are no specific models or factors to summarize - The report primarily focuses on market performance, market sentiment, capital flows, premium and discount rates, institutional attention, and leaderboard data - Market performance: The CSI 500 index performed well among scale indices, while the STAR 100 index performed well among sector indices, and the CSI 500 Growth index performed well among style indices[2][6][7] - Market sentiment: On January 16, 2026, 66 stocks hit the daily limit up, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit down. The closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was -0.35%, and the closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit down yesterday was -6.30%. The sealing rate was 56%, and the continuous board rate was 12%[2][13][14][17] - Capital flows: As of January 15, 2026, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 2.7188 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.6% of the market's circulating market value, and the proportion of margin trading and securities lending transactions in the market's transaction volume was 10.8%[2][19][22] - Premium and discount rates: On January 15, 2026, the ETF with the highest premium was the Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huaxia, with a premium of 1.88%, and the ETF with the highest discount was the Satellite Industry ETF, with a discount of 2.31%. The median annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.70%, 3.79%, 11.11%, and 13.61%, respectively[3][23][26][28] - Institutional attention and leaderboard: The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week were Haitian Ruisheng, Dikang Holdings, Leo Group, Kaisheng Technology, Boying Special Welding, SF Express, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and Shengda Resources. The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on the leaderboard were Xue Ren Group, Tongyu Communications, Hongxiang Holdings, Yongxi Electronics, Shaanxi Tourism, Taili Technology, Jintaiyang, Hualing Cable, Shenguang Group, and Hengkun New Materials[4][30][32][36][37][39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The satellite industry sector experienced a significant intraday reversal on January 16, with market confidence rebounding after early fluctuations, indicating a positive shift in sentiment and capital flow towards leading stocks like China Satcom and CASIC [1][2]. Market Analysis - The reversal in capital flow is attributed to a combination of short-term risk release and reinforcement of long-term logic, as profit pressures from previous trading days were effectively alleviated [1]. - The reaffirmation of the national mission by the domestic aerospace group, alongside aggressive launch targets from overseas giants and local policy support, has strengthened the consensus on commercial aerospace as a long-term strategic sector [1]. - The satellite industry ETF (159218), which covers the entire industry chain, serves as an important indicator of market confidence in the long-term prospects of commercial aerospace [2]. Capital Flow - The satellite industry ETF saw a shift from outflows to inflows, reflecting a market transition from short-term speculation to a focus on industry leaders with core technologies and real orders [1].