长江期货PTA月报 终端订单不佳，聚酯或将转弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-6-5 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 02 供应方面：减产降负，供需转好 03 需求方面：聚酯尚可，终端承压 04 逻辑与展望：终端不佳，供需转弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 01 行情回顾-5月PTA先跌后反弹 n 5月PTA期货主力合约期价先反弹后震荡，主要受国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，中美日内 瓦谈判传来利好，90天关税暂缓极大的提振过国内大宗商品情绪，4月跌幅最深的聚酯系开始反弹， PTA跟涨；而后，供应方面PX-PTA装置了轮番检修，PXN与PTA加工费开始恢复，而现货基差也达 到年内高点；中旬，由于聚酯原料PTA价格持续走高，下游聚酯企业加工利润下滑，少部分品种开始 亏损，对高价原料接受度不高 ...

Domestic News - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Jiangsu Bank and exclude Great Wall Motor [4] - The Energy Administration is organizing the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system [4] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on promoting the development of the artificial intelligence industry and empowering new industrialization [4] - Shanghai encourages local enterprises to actively apply for infrastructure REITs reserve projects [4] - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [4] - Tiger International denies "violating regulations to develop new clients in mainland China," stating that all operations are conducted within the regulatory framework [4] International News - Saudi Arabia plans to push OPEC+ to continue increasing oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate its market share [3] - Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan will consider slowing down its bond reduction pace next year [3] - The ISM survey shows that the US services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, indicating rising inflation [3] - Trump calls for the complete elimination of the debt ceiling and urges bipartisan cooperation to achieve this [3] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei states that completely abandoning uranium enrichment is against Iran's interests [3] - The Bank of Canada maintains its key interest rate but may consider lowering it in the future, with the Canadian dollar reaching a new high [3] - The US ADP employment figures for May significantly fell short of expectations, prompting Trump to call for immediate interest rate cuts from Powell [3] - Musk continues to criticize Trump's tax law, publicly urging fans to call legislators to reject the law [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office states that Trump's tax law will increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [3] - Saudi Arabia lowers the oil price for July shipments to Asia to the lowest level in nearly four years, priced at $1.20 above the Oman/Dubai average [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reports slight declines in economic activity across six regions, with businesses generally expecting future costs to rise [3]

2025 年 6 月 4 日 行业研究 保障能源安全基石，坚定自主创新高质量发展 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 72 期（20250603） 要点 地缘政治局势趋紧叠加关税冲突，能源安全重要性凸显。2025 年以来地缘政 治局势不确定性较强，叠加关税冲突迭起，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑 战。6 月 1 日，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯空军基地，宣布摧毁 41 架俄军战略轰炸 机，俄乌冲突再度加剧；6 月 2 日，俄乌在土耳其举行第二轮直接和平谈 判，未能取得重大突破，双方仅就交换战俘达成一致。关税方面，5 月 30 日 特朗普宣布将进口钢铁的关税翻倍提至 50%，6 月 4 日生效，特朗普引发的 全球关税冲突存在进一步加剧的风险。2024 年，我国原油进口依存度为 72%，天然气进口依存度为 43%，在地缘政治局势紧张和关税冲突加剧的背 景下，增加国内石油天然气产量、保障我国能源安全的重要性凸显。 "三桶油"坚持自主创新，谋求高质量发展。"三桶油"加强自主创新，大 力攻关石油化工领域的"卡脖子"技术，推动公司实现高质量发展。（1） 中国石油制定科技创新重点任务清单、时间表，确定 2025 年至本世纪中叶 的四阶段发展目标， ...

Core Viewpoint - The arrival of a low interest rate era highlights the importance of dividend assets, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, where state-owned enterprises play a significant role in dividend distribution [1] Group 1: Dividend Assets in the Market - A-shares are expected to see total dividends exceed 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with state-owned enterprises accounting for over 80% of this amount [1] - Hong Kong's central enterprises are positioned as key dividend payers, offering both high yields and valuation advantages [1] - The current trading congestion of Hong Kong dividend assets has decreased, supported by the ongoing pilot programs for long-term capital inflows [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The banking sector continues to show mid-to-long-term investment value, with ongoing dividend plans and valuation enhancement initiatives from major banks [1] - High dividend yield and strong asset quality banks are recommended for their absolute return potential and cost-effectiveness in allocation [1] Group 3: Performance of Dividend Indices and ETFs - The leading dividend index in the Hong Kong market is the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Yield Index, with the corresponding ETF, Bosera (513690), ranking first in both scale and daily trading volume [2] - As of June 4, 2025, the Bosera ETF reached a new high in price and size, totaling 4.043 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Advantages of the Bosera ETF - The Bosera ETF has a leading dividend yield of 8.02%, significantly higher than its peers, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stable income [4] - The top holdings of the ETF focus on energy and financial sectors, with notable performance in recent months, showcasing both cyclical resilience and defensive attributes [5] - The ETF employs strict risk control measures, excluding stocks with significant price declines and ensuring liquidity, thus enhancing the investment experience [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The petroleum and chemical indices mostly rose last week, with the chemical raw materials index down by 0.98%, the chemical machinery index up by 0.83%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index up by 2.47%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index up by 0.71% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index rose by 0.81%, the petroleum extraction index rose by 1.41%, while the petroleum trade index fell by 7.98% [1] - International crude oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations, with WTI settling at $60.79 per barrel, down 1.20% from May 23, and Brent settling at $63.90 per barrel, down 1.36% [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The top five performing listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets last week were Lianhua Technology up by 38.97%, Baismei up by 25.00%, Suqian Liansheng up by 16.80%, Qingdao Jinwang up by 18.23%, and Honghe Technology up by 17.09% [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Guangju Energy down by 15.95%, Tianan New Materials down by 14.66%, Hongbaoli down by 13.10%, Annada down by 12.38%, and Heimao Co. down by 12.14% [2] Group 3: Product Price Changes - The top five rising petrochemical products included hydrochloric acid up by 35.42%, liquid chlorine up by 21.85%, glyphosate up by 6.15%, dichloromethane up by 4.36%, and paraquat up by 4.35% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included acrylic acid down by 9.74%, butadiene down by 9.60%, natural rubber down by 6.55%, styrene-butadiene rubber down by 6.13%, and aniline down by 5.95% [1]

作为石油运营商，中石油希望通过这种跨界融合，进一步丰富了加油站业态，提升与消费者之间的黏性。记者注 意到，车主可以通过手机提前点餐，加油洗车后自助取餐，"加油+餐饮"的一站式高效服务，既节省了时间，又丰 富了消费场景，也极大提升了加油站转型的强大活力。 在市场竞争白热化、消费者需求日趋多元的当下。成品油运营企业正在加速突破传统油品销售单一框架模式，积 极向多元业态转型，而与德克士的合作，旨在携手打造 "油站+餐饮"新业态。 餐厅开业当天，现场人潮涌动。许多家长带着孩子早早到场，孩子们兴奋地参与做汉堡、捏气球等趣味活动，欢 笑声此起彼伏，开业首日客流量超300人次。 开业当天，加油站周边小区不少业主打卡这个新的消费点，打卡晒照片，分享在加油站体验餐饮品牌的新奇感 受。"左边吃洋快餐，右边是便利店，又在家门口，可以同时满足多重家庭消费需求，非常方便。"带着孩子前来 打卡的李女士说。 长沙晚报掌上长沙6月3日讯（全媒体记者 周辉霞）奶白色的外墙、设计感十足的桌椅、香气四溢的炸鸡炸薯条 香……中国石油湖南销售公司古曲路加油站的德克士餐厅，这个端午假期成为当地居民和网友的新晋打卡点。这 也是该公司非油业务迈开的一大步。 ...

大庆油田萨北油田第一作业区员工正在进行目视化管理赵丽婷摄 如今，实施目视化管理后，萨北油田基层战队生产环境整洁有序，从整体氛围到细微角落，尽显精心与 创新。分明的管道、可视化看板、有序的物品摆放以及新颖的文化墙，展现出大庆油田规范化、标准 化、精细化的管理水平，让安全与效率真正"看得见"。(完) 近年来，大庆油田持续探索场站风险防控与本质安全提升路径，构建以"目视化管理"为核心的安全基础 管理工程。目视化管理是通过直观视觉信息实现高效现场管理的科学方法，它将复杂内容转化为视觉信 号，让信息透明、操作标准、问题显现，降低沟通成本，优化生产流程。 在北II-6转油放水站，目视化管理成果显著。两个4000立方米沉降罐统一标号，装置区各类生产管理展 板、安全警示牌整齐摆放，进站人员和员工对工作内容与风险一目了然。管线贴有醒目的流向箭头标 识，阀门螺丝上挂着自制开关指示牌，员工操作更精准，响应时间缩短超30%。 目视化管理不仅有警示作用，还能有效提示操作。萨北油田安全部门与现场岗位紧密协作，经讨论优 化，用安全标准色和直观图形标注，形成科学实用的目视化操作图和巡检流程图。 中新网大庆6月3日电 (赵丽婷记者史轶夫)设备 ...

中新网大庆6月3日电 (王立峰)小小的"一亩三分地"，完成了"产量不降、含水不升"的"高难动作"，这是 大庆油田在杏南油田水驱示范区取得的成果。 大庆油田杏南油田水驱含水高达94%，每口井甚至井下的每一层含水都超标，加之地质环境的影响，杏 南油田剩余油高度零散。 在开发过程中，技术人员有针对性地对"示范区"制定剩余油挖潜对策，开展剩余油立体挖潜技术研究， 不断精细油井层内剩余油措施挖潜，增加水驱接替潜力，截至目前，已实施精控压裂7井次，单井日均 增油3.4吨。 为实现开发和效益双赢，技术人员还对"示范区"实施不同类型油层分类注水调整，优化层段组合，提升 分层注水效果。其中，开展智能分层注水工艺现场试验，匹配层段水量，实现注水效果智能、精准调 控，已编制智能分注方案70井次，实施38井次。全部实施后，预计试验井吸水厚度比例可提高1%。 同时，加大对"示范区"常规无效循环的治理力度，积极开展薄差层精准调控挖潜，采取层内细分、周期 注水、调参等手段，控制无效注采规模。年初以来，"示范区"已实施针对性治理54井次，控制无效注水 5.8万立方米，控制无效产液1.5万吨，含水少上升0.09%。(安) （文章来源：中国新闻 ...

Group 1 - Wildfires in northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are threatening oil sands operations, leading to project shutdowns and evacuations [2] - Canadian Natural Resources Limited has evacuated workers from the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, halting production of 36,500 barrels of asphalt per day [2] - MEG Energy has also evacuated non-essential personnel from the Christina Lake project due to wildfires disrupting third-party power lines, delaying an additional 70,000 barrels of production per day [2] Group 2 - Oil sands account for 97% of Canada's total oil reserves, primarily located in Alberta and Saskatchewan [4] - Oil sands are a mixture of sand, water, clay, and asphalt, with asphalt content ranging from 6% to 12% [4] - Approximately 20% of oil sands deposits are shallow enough for open-pit mining, while the remaining 80% require drilling and in-situ extraction methods [4] Group 3 - Extracted oil sands undergo initial processing to separate asphalt from sand and water, which can then be diluted for pipeline transport or upgraded into heavy crude oil [6] - Canada has the largest asphalt resource globally, with total asphalt content of 400 billion cubic meters, and Alberta's oil sands contain 180 billion barrels of crude oil [6] - By 2030, Canadian oil sands production is projected to reach 3.8 million barrels per day, a 15% increase from current levels, although growth may slow in the early 2030s due to various factors [6]

Company Movements - In May, BYD sold 382,500 new energy vehicles, up from 331,800 units in the same month last year, with a cumulative sales of 1.7634 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.7% [5] - Leap Motor delivered 45,067 vehicles in May, representing a year-on-year growth of over 148% [5] - Li Auto delivered 40,856 new vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with a historical cumulative delivery of 1,301,531 units as of May 31 [5] - Xpeng Motors delivered 33,525 vehicles in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 230%, achieving over 30,000 deliveries for seven consecutive months [7] - Xiaomi Motors delivered over 28,000 vehicles in May and is preparing for large-scale production of the Xiaomi YU7 [7] - Deep Blue Motors delivered 25,521 vehicles in May, showing a year-on-year growth of 78% and a month-on-month increase of 27% [7] - NIO delivered 23,231 new vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with 13,270 from the NIO brand, 6,281 from the Lada brand, and 3,680 from the Firefly brand [7] - Lantu Motors sold 10,022 vehicles in May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122% [7] Investment News - 12 brokerages, including Shenwan Hongyuan and Everbright, released their top ten stocks for June, with Yara International being favored by three institutions, while Zijin Mining, Juhua Co., Huadian Technology, Dongpeng Beverage, and Qingdao Beer were each listed twice [4] - In May, the three major exchanges in China received a total of 16 IPO applications, marking a significant increase compared to the previous four months and setting a new monthly record for the year, with the Beijing Stock Exchange accounting for nearly 70% of the applications [4] - Last week, institutions conducted research on 435 listed companies, with Zhongwei Company receiving the most attention from 212 institutions [4] - This week, one new stock, Haiyang Technology, is available for subscription at an issue price of 11.5 yuan per share, with an issue price-to-earnings ratio of 12.69 times, compared to the industry average of 23.65 times, requiring a minimum investment of 145,000 yuan in the Shanghai market [4] - A total of 54 restricted shares will be unlocked this week, amounting to 2.399 billion shares with a market value of 27.875 billion yuan, led by Chipone Technology at 4.259 billion yuan [4]