Core Insights - The company reported a decrease in pig sales volume and revenue for September 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - Chicken sales showed a significant year-on-year decline, despite a slight increase in sales volume compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Category Pig Sales - In September 2025, the company sold 202,300 pigs, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.34% [1] - The revenue from pig sales was 319 million yuan, which represents a month-on-month decline of 5.63% and a year-on-year decline of 24.91% [1] - The average selling price of pigs was 12.98 yuan per kilogram, down 4.49% from August 2025 [1] Chicken Sales - The company sold 843,800 chickens in September 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.54% but a significant year-on-year decrease of 62.62% [1] - Chicken sales revenue amounted to 15.43 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.45% [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a decrease in pig sales volume and revenue for September 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - Chicken sales also experienced a significant decline year-on-year, reflecting broader industry challenges [1] Company Performance - In September 2025, the company sold 202,300 pigs, which is a decrease of 1.34% month-on-month and 3.34% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from pig sales was 319 million yuan, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.63% and a year-on-year decline of 24.91% [1] - The average selling price of pigs was 12.98 yuan per kilogram, down 4.49% from August 2025 [1] Industry Trends - The company sold 843,800 chickens in September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.54% but a significant year-on-year decrease of 62.62% [1] - Chicken sales revenue amounted to 15.43 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.86% but a year-on-year decline of 13.45% [1]

消息面上，10月13日，生猪期货主力合约2511收盘下跌2.88%，报11125元/吨，续创历史新低，年内累 计下跌21%，较去年高点下跌逾40%。猪肉现货价格目前已跌破11元/公斤。市场人士分析，尽管近月来 供给端持续推进去产能，但效果尚不及预期，市场供需失衡的矛盾依旧，猪价下行走势预计难有改观。 值得注意的是，万洲国际上月宣布派发特别股息每股0.3港元。瑞银发布研报称，此次派息符合市场预 期，所有来自史密斯菲尔德(Smithfield)二次公开发售的所得款项均以特别股息形式派发。此外，万洲国 际拟于10月28日举行董事会会议以审批三季度业绩。 万洲国际(00288)再跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.05%，报7.34港元，成交额1.83亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wan Zhou International (00288) has seen a decline of over 4%, currently trading at 7.34 HKD with a transaction volume of 183 million HKD, amid falling pig prices and market supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - On October 13, the main contract for live pig futures closed down 2.88% at 11,125 RMB/ton, marking a historical low and a cumulative decline of 21% for the year, with prices down over 40% from last year's peak [1] - Current pork spot prices have fallen below 11 RMB/kg, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1] - Despite efforts to reduce production capacity, the supply-demand imbalance in the market remains unresolved, suggesting that the downward trend in pig prices is unlikely to change in the near term [1] Group 2: Company Actions - Wan Zhou International announced a special dividend of 0.3 HKD per share last month, which aligns with market expectations [1] - All proceeds from the secondary public offering of Smithfield will be distributed as special dividends [1] - The company plans to hold a board meeting on October 28 to approve its third-quarter performance [1]

格隆汇10月14日｜华鑫证券研报指出，牧原股份由于前期生猪减重政策等因素影响，部分生猪提前出 栏，导致公司9月出栏量有所减少。公司主动削减能繁母猪存栏至2025年9月的330.5万头，较2024年末 的351.2万头减少5.9%，已基本达成330万头的年底能繁母猪量目标。在国内生猪产能增长趋缓背景下， 牧原与BAF合作的越南高科技楼房养殖项目，或将成为公司增长的新动力。公司完全成本持续优化，目 标年底达11元/kg，全年平均成本12元/kg。在猪价下行阶段，这一成本优势将转化为显著的抗周期能 力。公司养殖规模领先，养殖成本优势持续增强。维持"买入"评级。 ...

供应压力延续，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 农产品日报 | 2025-10-14 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约11125元/吨，较前交易日变动-195.00元/吨，幅度-1.72%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-15，较前交易日变动+115；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH11+85，较前交易日变动+135；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH11-695，较前交易日变动-335。 据农业农村部监测，10月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.70，比上周六上升0.28个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为119.61，比上周六上升0.33个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.47元/公斤，比上周六下降1.6%； 牛肉66.34元/公斤，比上周六上升0.5%；羊肉62.06元/公斤，比上周六上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.76元/公斤，比上周六下降 1.4%；白条鸡17.55元/公斤，比上周六下降0 ...

Economic Overview - Fengdu County's GDP structure shows that the primary industry accounts for less than 15%, while the secondary industry decreased from 45.57% in 2019 to 38.87% in 2023, and the tertiary industry is approaching 50% and increasing annually[20] - In 2023, Fengdu County's total industrial output value was 136.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.06%[27] - The county's permanent population was 544,200 at the end of 2023, a decrease of 8,800 from the previous year, with an urbanization rate of 51.89%, up by 0.86 percentage points[29] Fiscal Situation - Fengdu County achieved a general budget revenue of 2.765 billion yuan in 2023, with tax revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, showing a gradual increase in fiscal self-sufficiency[31] - The fiscal self-sufficiency rate reached 39.37% in 2023, placing Fengdu County among the top in Chongqing[32] - Government fund income surged by 95.25% in 2023, totaling 1.535 billion yuan, alleviating previous revenue pressures[37] Debt Pressure - As of the end of 2023, Fengdu County's government debt balance was 16.3 billion yuan, with a limited refinancing space of 163.7 billion yuan[40] - The debt-to-GDP ratio was 40.14%, indicating moderate debt pressure compared to other counties in Chongqing[45] - The county's comprehensive debt ratio was 255%, showing a decrease of 28 percentage points from the previous year, indicating manageable overall debt risk[46] Industry Analysis - Fengdu County has over 20 identified mineral resources, with significant reserves of bauxite, shale gas, and limestone, supporting industrial development[49] - The county has established a clean energy industry centered on wind, hydro, and solar power, with a total installed capacity of 710,000 kilowatts and an annual power generation of approximately 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours[52] - Fengdu's agricultural sector is robust, with a focus on six leading industries, including grain, beef cattle, and citrus, ensuring food security and economic stability[51]

Core Viewpoint - The holiday consumption effect on pig prices is weakening, with prices continuing to decline despite the recent holidays [1][2][3] Price Trends - The average national pig price was 12.90 yuan/kg in the first week of October, down 2.8% from the previous week and 29.5% year-on-year [1][2] - Prices have dropped over 22% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a low point for the year [1] - As of October 13, the average price for external three-yuan pigs was 10.81 yuan/kg, indicating a slight daily decrease [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs remains abundant, with a significant number of breeding sows still in operation, leading to a challenging market for price recovery [3][6] - Analysts predict that the demand for pigs may improve in November due to cooler weather and seasonal activities, but overall supply is expected to outpace demand [2][7] Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the need for strict production capacity controls, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million [6] - Some companies have begun to adjust their production strategies, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs being sold [6][7] Profitability Concerns - The ongoing decline in pig prices has significantly impacted the profitability of pig farming, with losses reported for self-breeding and pig fattening operations [5][6] - Smaller farming operations are facing the most pressure due to higher costs, while larger enterprises are better positioned to manage risks [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term price stabilization, the overall supply situation will limit significant price increases in the near future [5][7] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until production capacity adjustments take effect, with a potential for improved demand in the winter months [7]

Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - China's exports in September showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in US dollar terms, and imports rose 7.4%, both exceeding expectations. Industrial robot and wind power exports grew strongly, while soybean, iron ore imports reached record highs, and rare earth exports decreased by 31% month-on-month [1]. - The US-China trade friction escalated after Trump's threat to impose additional tariffs, but his subsequent remarks and actions somewhat eased the market's pessimistic sentiment. The impact of this trade friction is expected to be weaker than that in April 2025 [1][2]. - The Fed official Paulson hinted at supporting two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [2]. Stock Market - The stock market opened lower due to Trump's tariff information but recovered some losses with the release of resilient domestic import and export data. The market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state, with a tendency to rise rather than fall [4]. - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.49% yesterday, and the two - market trading volume decreased by 1608.74 billion yuan. In the futures market, IH decreased with lower volume, while other varieties decreased with higher volume [4]. Bond Market - In the face of the tense US - China trade situation, the A - share market showed resilience, and the bond market's spot bond yield decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. If the trade situation is only temporarily tense, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [5]. Shipping Market - The container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) prices were in a low - level volatile state with a slight upward trend. CMA CGM announced a price increase for November on the Asia - to - Northern Europe route [6]. Commodity Market Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to surge. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 50.775 per ounce, up 7.47% [8]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and long - term funds increased their positions in gold and silver ETFs. The inventory of SHFE silver decreased [9]. Base Metals - Copper prices rebounded strongly, with both domestic and international copper prices reaching high levels. The copper market has returned to the upward channel, but it may be restricted by the high price and weak downstream purchasing willingness [12]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while alumina is in a weak state, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - Zinc prices are in a situation of mixed long and short factors. In the short term, they are mainly based on a short - selling logic, and the trading strategy can be to hold long - short spreads [14]. - Tin prices are expected to be in a callback phase, and investors can wait for opportunities to enter the market on the long side [15]. - Lead prices are in a high - level volatile state, with limited upward space [19]. Black Metals - Steel prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals, with high supply and insufficient demand. The market is waiting for positive signals from the Fourth Plenary Session [21][22]. - Iron ore prices rebounded strongly, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [23]. - Coking coal and coke prices are at risk of negative feedback, and the trading strategy is to treat them with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal [25]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, and the cost support is facing challenges [26]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, but the upward space is limited. The market is under pressure from weak demand and increased supply [27]. - LPG prices may be affected by the reduction of PDH profits. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is slightly weak [28]. - PTA - PX prices are mainly affected by macro - events, and the trading strategy is to wait and see on the long side. The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand for polyester is seasonally improved but limited [30]. - MEG prices are under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation. The current coal - based marginal device is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to be in the range of 3850 - 4250 [34]. - Methanol prices are affected by macro - trading. The 01 contract is expected to be in the range of 2250 - 2350, and investors can buy a small amount of bottom - position contracts at low prices [36]. - PP and PE prices are under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see [39][42]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by inventory and supply. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [43]. - Fuel oil prices maintain a high cracking spread. The supply may be tight, and the demand is relatively stable [43]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost and demand. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [45]. - Urea prices are in a weak state, and the market is waiting for new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [46]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash has high - level supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has high - profit restrictions and uncertain downstream demand [47][48][50]. - Pulp prices are in a weak and volatile state, affected by high inventory and weak downstream demand [50]. - Log prices are expected to have a deep - discount situation again before delivery, and the trading strategy is mainly short - selling [51]. - Propylene prices are affected by cost collapse, and the supply is relatively loose [51]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices are under pressure due to high supply. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, and attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening [53]. - Oilseed prices are mainly affected by Sino - US trade relations. Soybean imports may face a gap in the first quarter of next year, and rapeseed meal inventory is expected to decline seasonally [54].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen, is actively participating in national reserve plans and has established a strong presence in the pig farming industry, while also exploring futures trading to hedge risks. Group 1: Company Operations - As of October 13, 2025, Tangrenshen's stock closed at 4.81 yuan, down 0.41%, with a turnover rate of 2.06% and a trading volume of 295,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 141 million yuan [1] - The company has been involved in the national reserve plan, participating in the recent auction for 15,000 tons of frozen pork [2] - Tangrenshen has established a futures department for pig trading and is actively applying for designated delivery warehouses for pig futures [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has focused on the entire pig industry chain for over 30 years, with core business segments including biological feed, healthy breeding, and branded meat products, providing stable cash flow and business synergy [3] - Tangrenshen has formed partnerships with well-known retailers such as Pandonglai, Metro, and Xiaoxiang Supermarket, as well as stable supply relationships with national chain restaurants like Haidilao [4] Group 3: Market Activity - On October 13, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 7.76 million yuan, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from the stock [5] - Retail investors showed a net inflow of 1.03 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 6.73 million yuan [6]