Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a potential for a stable transition into the second phase of the spring market, supported by favorable factors that have not changed [1][6] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to increase the importance of performance indicators, with high-quality companies showing solid fundamentals likely to yield excess returns [1][6] Investment Strategies - The investment focus remains on "anti-involution + technology," with sectors such as AI applications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment gaining attention for their investment value [1][10] - Citic Securities suggests constructing investment portfolios based on "resource + traditional manufacturing pricing re-evaluation," including sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [5] - Dongwu Securities emphasizes that the market is likely to stabilize, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and exceeding performance expectations [6] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, allowing local authorities to set lower limits based on local conditions [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for derivative trading, aiming to manage risks and support the real economy while limiting excessive speculation [3] Sector Insights - Open-source Securities highlights three main investment lines: recovery within the technology sector, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and maintaining gold and high-dividend assets as long-term holdings [7] - Fortune Fund identifies four key investment themes for 2026: embracing technology trends, enhancing the influence of Chinese manufacturing overseas, capturing cyclical rebound opportunities, and benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB in the non-bank financial sector [8] - Huatai Bairui Fund anticipates increased attention on resource and energy sectors due to improving domestic and foreign policy environments, which may lead to enhanced corporate profitability [9]

Market Insights - The report indicates that the increase in financing margin ratios is gradually being digested by the market, with the impact nearing its end. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts are expected to boost policy expectations, and additional policies may be introduced following the release of macroeconomic data for 2025, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][4] - The upcoming release of 2025 macroeconomic data on January 19 is anticipated to show a significant decline in GDP growth for Q4 compared to Q3. This, combined with various policy measures, suggests an increased probability of a "good start" for Q1, which is likely to uplift market risk appetite [4][11] Industry Allocation - The report asserts that the acceleration in market trends has not ended, but the structure of the upward trend is shifting towards computing power. The previous leading sectors, such as military and AI applications, have seen declines, raising investor concerns about the end of the current market phase. However, the report suggests that the current market phase may still extend with potential acceleration in sectors related to computing power [5][20] - As of January 12, 2026, the electric equipment sector has not yet reached new highs, indicating that the growth style and six major growth industries have not simultaneously achieved new highs. The report highlights that the electric equipment index has room for approximately 3% growth to meet this condition [20][23] - The report identifies that the communication and electronic sectors, which were previously strong, may experience a rapid rebound, with potential upward space of no less than 10%. The report emphasizes that the current market conditions do not satisfy the "stronger gets stronger" characteristic, as the leading sectors have not maintained their strength [20][24] - The report also notes that the turnover rates for the growth style and the communication sector are approaching their respective highs, but the communication sector still has a significant gap to close. This suggests that the current market phase has not yet concluded, and a rapid increase in turnover rates may accompany a rebound in the communication sector [27][31] Key Investment Themes - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power equipment), and applications (robots/games/software), is expected to continue its upward trend. The report anticipates that applications may experience high volatility, while computing power is likely to see accelerated growth [32][33] 2. Areas supported by favorable market conditions or significant events, such as storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery, are also highlighted. The storage sector is expected to benefit from supply disruptions and increased AI demand, while the military sector may gain from commercial aerospace and geopolitical events [33]

成交活跃度上升，创业板指估值领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 1 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/12-2026/1/16）成交活跃度上升，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面 上涨，创业板指领涨。行业指数：PE 估值传媒，PB 估值电力及公用事业领涨。情 绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率涨跌互现，成交额全面上升。ERP：环比上升。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.18 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | 美国对委特别行动，伊朗局势悄然生变 2026.01.15 新兴科技景气延续，周期资源价格上涨 2026.01.14 融资资金大幅流入，外资重回流入 A 股 2026.01.12 成交活跃度上升，中证 1000 估值领涨 2026.01.11 元旦 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Moving Average Trend Model - **Model Name**: Moving Average Trend Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates industry trends using four moving averages and combines three moving average indicators to derive a trend score[2][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Moving Average Arrangement**: When a shorter-term moving average is above a longer-term moving average, it is considered a bullish arrangement and scores 1 point; conversely, a bearish arrangement scores -1 point[2][24] 2. **Moving Average Spread**: Calculate the price difference between adjacent moving averages and take the average of all differences[2][24] 3. **Moving Average Temporal Change**: When the price of a moving average increases compared to the previous day, it scores 1 point; when it decreases, it scores -1 point[2][24] 4. Combine the three indicators and take the absolute value to get the moving average score. Rank the scores from high to low to identify industries with clear upward or downward trends[2][24] - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively identifies industries with clear trends by combining multiple moving average indicators[2][24] Capital Flow Model - **Model Name**: Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model measures changes in industry capital flow using the capital inflow rate[3][26] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the capital inflow rate as the ratio of active net capital inflow to transaction amount[3][26] 2. For each industry, calculate the change in recent capital inflow rate relative to historical capital inflow rates[3][26] 3. Rank the changes in capital inflow rates from high to low to identify industries with the most significant capital inflow increases[3][26] - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively identifies industries with significant capital inflow changes by comparing recent and historical inflow rates[3][26] Combined Moving Average Trend and Capital Flow Model - **Model Name**: Combined Moving Average Trend and Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines moving average trend scores and capital flow scores to select industries with clear trends and high capital inflow rankings[4][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the moving average trend score for each industry[2][24] 2. Calculate the capital flow score for each industry[3][26] 3. Combine the moving average trend scores and capital flow scores to rank industries[4][27] - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively identifies industries with clear trends and significant capital inflows by combining two different indicators[4][27] Model Backtest Results - **Moving Average Trend Model**: - Top-ranked industries: Non-ferrous metals, communication, electronics[9] - **Capital Flow Model**: - Top-ranked industries: Media, computer, electronics[9] - **Combined Moving Average Trend and Capital Flow Model**: - Top-ranked industries: Electronics, media, non-ferrous metals, machinery equipment, computer[10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of various segments within the consumer sector, with a stable overall market performance but most sub-sectors underperforming compared to the broader market [4][6]. - There is an expectation for consumer demand to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year, driven by sufficient market liquidity [4]. - The tourism sector is showing potential for growth, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market dynamics [4]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in supply-demand relationships, particularly in dairy products, while the restaurant supply chain is stabilizing [4]. - In the liquor segment, leading companies are expected to maintain market share despite recent profit adjustments [4]. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% during the week of January 12-16, with the media sector rising by 3.34% while other sectors like food and beverage and agriculture saw declines of 2.03% and 3.49% respectively [6][8]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [4]. Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to enhance structural monetary policy support, which may positively impact consumer spending and economic recovery [10]. - The Philippines has announced visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which could boost tourism [11]. Company Announcements - Companies like Giant Biological and Proya are making strategic moves, such as product approvals and share buybacks, indicating proactive management in response to market conditions [13][19]. - The report notes significant developments in the liquor industry, including the launch of premium products and partnerships for promotional events [20].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Yubang Electric (688597), which has been deeply engaged in the smart power sector for thirty years, with growth potential in energy storage and low-altitude applications [3]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 1,004 million in 2025 to 1,897 million in 2027, with growth rates of 7%, 36%, and 39% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 77 million in 2025 to 196 million in 2027, with growth rates of -30%, 57%, and 61% respectively [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The smart meter bidding is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year investment increase of 40% from the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The energy storage capacity is well-prepared, with orders gradually increasing, and low-altitude inspections are expected to benefit from the construction of smart grids, leading to accelerated growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of authoritative information sources in the context of changing search logic, emphasizing their significance in data training and commercialization [7]. Group 3: Catalysts and Opportunities - Key catalysts for Yubang Electric include the smart meter bidding, the ramp-up of energy storage orders, and the expansion of low-altitude economic applications [4]. - The gaming industry is also highlighted, with a focus on new game launches as a significant opportunity for growth, particularly for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network [6]. - The report suggests monitoring authoritative information publishing institutions as potential investment opportunities [9].

Global and A-share Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index recording the highest increase of 2.58%. The Hong Kong market also saw an uptick, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.34%. The top-performing ETFs primarily tracked TMT sector indices [1][11][14]. ETF New Issuance Statistics - Last week, 10 stock ETFs were reported in the A-share market, including 2 focused on non-ferrous metals. A total of 8 new stock ETFs were established. In the US market, 8 equity ETFs were newly established [1][16][18]. Fund Flows in A-share Market - The top 10 ETFs with net inflows were predominantly from the TMT sector, while the top 10 with net outflows were mainly from the CSI 300 Index ETFs. The ETF tracking the Sci-Tech 100 Index had the highest net inflow, while the CSI 300 Index ETF had the highest net outflow [2][25][27]. - In the A-share market, the net inflow for the top 10 broad-based indices included the Sci-Tech 100 with 9.59 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 saw a net outflow of 1,034.75 billion yuan [28][32]. Industry ETF Fund Flows - The TMT sector led the A-share market with a net inflow of 465.84 billion yuan, followed by upstream and materials with 216.32 billion yuan. Other sectors like new energy and consumption also saw positive inflows, while sectors such as low-carbon environmental and agriculture experienced outflows [33][35].

- The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to model price-volume data and predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry theme indices, including the CSI Satellite Industry Index, CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, CSI Big Data Industry Index, and CSI Computer Theme Index[79][81] - The CNN-based model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations for analysis, leveraging deep learning techniques to identify patterns and trends in stock price movements[79][80] - The latest thematic configurations derived from the CNN model focus on sectors such as satellites, nonferrous metals, biotechnology, and computing, reflecting the model's ability to capture sectoral trends[79][81]

Group 1 - The report suggests that investors should maintain a steady allocation strategy before the Spring Festival, anticipating the release of new momentum after the holiday [3][21] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the ChiNext and other indices showed gains [1][11] - The report indicates that the current valuation levels of the Sci-Tech 50 and the Wind All A indices are relatively high, with their PE(TTM) percentile ranks exceeding 90% as of January 16, 2026 [1][12] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the electronic, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals industries, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market conditions [3][32] - The report notes that if the market style leans towards growth, the top-scoring industries in the five-dimensional industry comparison framework include electronics, power equipment, and communication [3][32] - In a defensive market style scenario, the top industries include non-bank financials, electronics, and power equipment, indicating a similarity in high-scoring industries across both growth and defensive styles [3][32] Group 3 - The report continues to focus on the commercial aerospace sector, which has shown signs of adjustment after a strong performance, suggesting that the sector may transition to a phase of consolidation [4][33] - The report warns of potential short-term profit-taking pressures in the commercial aerospace sector due to its previous high cumulative gains, but it remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by favorable industry policies [4][33]

Group 1 - The 2026 market opening shows a clear characteristic of increased risk appetite driven by inflow of incremental funds, with commercial aerospace and AI application industries trending upwards [1][16] - The current market is experiencing strong momentum and excessive trading, which may lead to a short-term consolidation phase [1][16] - The average holding period for defense and military stocks is significantly lower than historical lows, indicating a decrease in stability for short-term momentum trades [1][19] Group 2 - The opening market is viewed as an extension of the strong structural technology market from 2025, which is now entering a high valuation adjustment phase [2][17] - Since September 2025, several high-momentum industries have entered a high-level consolidation phase, with notable examples including Nvidia's computing chain and Google's computing chain [2][17] - The market is expected to shift towards a consolidation phase after rapid valuation increases in new technology directions [2][17] Group 3 - The policy direction emphasizes a stable and long-term approach to avoid past investment pitfalls, such as the "deposit migration" of 2007 and the excessive trading of 2015 [10][26] - The A-share market has a mid-term upward basis, suggesting that a stable approach can balance short-term volatility with long-term goals [10][26] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential reduction in overall profit effects, with a need to wait for further economic and policy catalysts [10][28] Group 4 - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market suggests two phases of upward movement, with the first phase being driven by strong structural technology trends and the second phase potentially benefiting from cyclical improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [12][28] - The characteristics of the two upward phases are interconnected, with the first phase led by cyclical alpha and AI computing, while the second phase may see a transition towards application-level AI trends [12][28]