Key Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards high-quality, connotative urban development, with a focus on policies aimed at reducing "involution" in various sectors [2][5] - The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost cement demand in Tibet and surrounding areas, benefiting regional cement companies [11][12][15] - The report highlights the importance of technology innovation and self-discipline in the construction industry, as 33 construction companies advocate for a transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [5][11] Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a strategic shift in urban development from expansion to high-quality, connotative growth, emphasizing human-centered approaches and efficient resource use [3] - The adjustment of long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance the stability of insurance funds as long-term capital [4] - The promotion of Shanghai's free trade zone experiences is set to enhance the business environment and foster fair competition across regions [4] Industry Developments - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing active product iterations, with a focus on specific application scenarios such as industrial logistics and special environments [7][8] - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is projected to require over 40 million cubic meters of concrete, translating to approximately 16 million tons of cement, significantly impacting local supply chains [12][13] - The cement industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with collaborative production strategies expected to stabilize supply and enhance pricing power [14] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in state-owned enterprises responsible for the design and construction of hydropower projects, as well as regional cement and explosives companies that stand to benefit from increased demand [21][19] - The focus on high-quality development in urban planning and construction is expected to create long-term growth opportunities for companies that align with these strategic shifts [3][5]

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证全指建筑材料ETF发起联接C（013020），国泰中证全指建 筑材料ETF发起联接A（013019）。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 平安证券指出，行业反内卷措施持续推进，包括加大错峰限产和超产治理，有望推动下半年旺季价 格止跌回升。截至2025年4月，全国水泥行业共退出产能约3165万吨，实际净退出1220万吨，预计下半 年产能出清将提速。西藏水泥市场格局良好，区域封闭性和高集中度支撑价格稳定。随着雅下水电项目 开工，预计将带来超过3400万吨水泥需求，年化需求占西藏产量的17%以上，推动当地市场进入景气上 行周期。全国层面，水泥行业供需格局有望通过错峰协同和超产治理实现长期优化。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建 ...

雅下水电概念股再度活跃，西宁特钢（600117）、保利联合（002037）、高争民爆（002827）、华新水 泥（600801）、苏博特（603916）等股走出2连板。 "聪明钱"流向曝光！暗盘资金破解主力操盘密码>> ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Japanese ruling coalition lost its majority in the recent Senate elections, marking the first time since 1955 that it has lost control of both houses, raising concerns about future fiscal policy changes [2] Group 2: Mechanical Equipment - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding many major infrastructure projects in China [2][5] - The project is expected to generate about 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, which is three times the output of the Three Gorges project, and will create substantial demand for related mechanical equipment [5][7] Group 3: Power Equipment and New Energy - In June 2025, China's inverter exports reached 6.59 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 10.3%, with a total of 5.129 million units exported [4] - The Yarlung Zangbo project is anticipated to drive approximately 720 billion yuan in new orders for hydropower equipment and 500 billion yuan for transmission and transformation equipment, benefiting leading companies in these sectors [5][7] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - The Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is expected to boost demand for construction materials such as cement and functional materials due to its high technical requirements and standards [7] - The project is the largest planned hydropower station globally, with a total investment of around 1.2 trillion yuan, which will likely enhance the construction sector's activity [7] Group 5: Consumer Goods - The dairy industry in China is currently experiencing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a return to supply-demand balance by 2026, driven by a decrease in raw milk production and moderate improvement in terminal demand [9] - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are focusing on improving profit margins as they navigate through the current market conditions [9][10] Group 6: Key Companies - Huaxin Cement is expanding its global footprint through acquisitions, which is expected to enhance its scale and profitability [10] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry is progressing smoothly, which is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and competitiveness in shipbuilding [10]

雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程：万亿巨擘，砥砺前行 浩瀚雪域，巨龙腾飞。7月19日，一声机械轰鸣，宣告着全球最大水电工程——雅鲁藏布江下游1.2万亿水电项目正式开工。这一史诗级工程，装机容量达 6000万千瓦，相当于三个三峡工程的总和，预计年发电量3000亿千瓦时，足以满足3亿人的用电需求。消息一出，A股水利、基建板块即刻引爆，开盘20只 概念股涨停，民爆龙头高争民爆、水泥巨头西藏天路一字涨停，工程机械巨头中国电建市值更是飙升百亿，市场热情空前高涨。 一、中国制造的极限挑战：征服高原，挑战自然 雅鲁藏布江大拐弯段，50公里直线落差达2230米，水能密度位居全球之冠。工程规划在此建设5座梯级电站，总投资1.2万亿元，相当于三峡工程的5倍，港 珠澳大桥的10倍。然而，这并非简单的"复制粘贴"。高原施工面临着三大严峻挑战：8.5级地震带、17条断裂带以及3000米深埋隧洞。 水泥板块: 西藏天路作为西藏水泥行业的龙头企业，拥有全区65%的产能，该项目年需水泥360万吨，相当于西藏全区年产量的30%。华新水泥林芝基地凭借 其每吨高达200元的毛利优势，在价格战中脱颖而出。 掘进设备板块: 铁建重工凭借其TBM掘进机的订单，斩 ...

昨日A股 7月21日，A股三大指数集体上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.72%，深成指涨0.86%，创业板指涨0.87%，北证 50指数涨2.38%，沪深京三市成交额17271亿元，较上日放量1339亿元。全市场超4000只个股上涨，超 120只个股涨停。 板块题材上，工程机械、水泥建材、钢铁、电网设备、新型城镇化板块涨幅居前；跨境支付、银行、教 育、光刻机概念股跌幅居前。 | 名称 | 最新点位 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3559.79 | +25.31(0.72%) | | 深证指数 | 11007.49 | +93.65 (0.86%) | | 创业板指 | 2296.88 | +19.73(0.87%) | | | 日期:7月21日 制图:21投资通 | | 隔夜外盘 纽约股市三大股指7月21日涨跌不一。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌19.12点， 收于44323.07点，跌幅为0.04%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨8.81点，收于6305.60点，涨幅为0.14%； 纳斯达克综合指数上涨78.52点，收于20974.17点，涨幅为0.38% ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The report discusses how tariffs affect US inflation, noting that the June CPI reflects some impact from tariffs, particularly in categories like appliances, home decor, clothing, and entertainment products, which have seen significant inflation increases [3] - It estimates that for every 1% increase in effective tariff rates, tariff revenue increases by $2.38 billion per month, suggesting that a 10% tariff could yield an annual revenue increase of approximately $220 billion [3] - The report concludes that while tariffs can help alleviate the US deficit to some extent, relying solely on tariff revenue to cover the deficit from the "Big and Beautiful" plan would require an effective tariff rate increase to 19%, which is challenging [3][35] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The report outlines the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy to address both domestic economic recovery and external complexities [5] - It highlights that the current monetary policy framework is evolving, with the central bank improving its liquidity management and balancing multiple objectives [5] - The report suggests that the market may remain in a valuation uptrend for convertible bonds, with a focus on those with low option valuations [17] Group 3: Defense Industry Insights - The report notes that Sweden has procured $525 million worth of artillery ammunition, indicating a rising demand in the ammunition supply chain driven by geopolitical tensions [6] - It emphasizes the increasing need for low-cost, precision-guided, and modular munitions in modern warfare, with the US defense budget for missiles and ammunition projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 13.65% from 2022 to 2025 [6] - The ammunition industry is expected to benefit from sustained high demand, with companies in the sector signing significant contracts in the first half of 2025 [8] Group 4: Cement Industry Performance - The report indicates a significant improvement in the cement industry's performance in the first half of 2025, with profits expected to reach between 15 to 16 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [8] - It mentions that while some regions are experiencing slight price declines due to seasonal factors, prices are expected to rise as demand enters the peak season in August [8] - The report recommends continued investment in the cement sector, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Huaxin Cement as key players [8] Group 5: Semiconductor and AI Industry Trends - The report highlights that the semiconductor industry is expected to maintain optimistic growth in 2025, driven by AI demand and supply chain restructuring risks [19] - It notes that the storage market is experiencing a price increase, with enterprise-level products projected to see significant revenue growth [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor sector, with companies like Jiangbolong expected to benefit from this trend [21]

汽车、光伏、水泥、钢铁，不同行业，同在"反内卷"！从7月1日中央财经委员会第六次会议，到近期国务院常务会议和相关行业主管部门座谈会，对"内 卷"的治理，正在如何深入推进？ 对"内卷式"竞争的加码整治 已经迫在眉睫 清华大学国家金融研究院院长 田轩：内卷并不是新的现象，在十几年前其实很多传统的产业，像钢铁、水泥行业就出现过"内卷式"竞争。现在不仅是传统 产业，一些新兴产业，像光伏、新能源汽车，也出现了"内卷式"竞争。这次一系列政策的加码，确实是由于"内卷式"竞争带来的危害进入到非常严重的迫切 境地。危害主要有几个： ● 这种"内卷式"竞争会削弱行业的竞争实力，因为企业竞相降价压缩了利润空间。对于价格敏感型的消费者可能短期会受益，但是从中长期来说是不利的， 因为企业利润空间下降了以后，没有更多的资金积累技术、研发创新，提高产品质量、服务水平等。 ● 破坏行业的生态系统。因为有一些企业凭借其行业优势地位，沿着上下游进行价格的压制，把成本转嫁给上下游的企业，所以内卷会沿着整个上下游产业 链蔓延，其实对行业的生态系统是非常大的破坏。 ● 破坏国内大循环，导致企业的利润下降，员工收入下降，国家税收下降，投资回报下降。所以 ...

Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery due to its large scale and the challenging geographical conditions, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2] - Major suppliers of hydropower equipment in China include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [2] - Central state-owned enterprises involved in hydropower engineering design and construction, such as China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation, are expected to be the first beneficiaries of the project [2] Group 3: Related Sectors - The high-altitude and complex geological conditions of the project will drive the demand for high-performance engineering machinery, favoring industry leaders [2][3] - The cement sector is likely to experience a new wave of growth due to the project, with companies like Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement dominating the local market [3] - The commencement of the project is expected to significantly increase the demand for explosives in Tibet, benefiting companies with production capacity and business layout in the region, such as Gaozheng Minbao and Yipuli [3]

大基建板块集体走强 昨日，受国家级水电工程正式开工提振，水利水电等大基建板块集体大涨。截至收盘，基康技术、五新 隧装以30%幅度涨停，中国电建、西藏天路、保利联合等多只个股涨停。 据新华社报道，7月19日上午，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。工程主要 采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万亿元。 国投证券认为，雅下水电工程作为国家级战略项目，涉及水电建设、基础设施建设、特高压输电、设备 制造、民爆、水泥建材供应等多个产业链环节，其开工建设将带来上下游产业链需求逐步释放，建议关 注产业链投资机会。 7月21日，A股三大指数延续涨势，沪指、创业板指双双创出今年以来新高。截至收盘，上证指数报 3559.79点，涨0.72%；深证成指报11007.49点，涨0.86%；创业板指报2296.88点，涨0.87%。沪深北三市 合计成交17271亿元，较上个交易日放量1339亿元。 盘面上，全市场4000多只个股上涨，逾百股涨停。水利水电板块全线大涨，基康技术、五新隧装以30% 幅度涨停；钢铁、煤炭、化工等资源股集体上扬，八一钢铁、柳钢股份涨停；稀土永磁概念反复活跃， 北 ...