（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月21日，海螺水泥在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司股价波动受宏观经济、行业 和市场形势等多种复杂因素综合影响。公司将围绕已制定的《市值管理制度》，积极推动落实市值管理 的各项举措，持续提升经营发展质量，不断增强公司的内在投资价值。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of AI electronic cloth, particularly Low CTE electronic cloth, driven by increased demand from companies like Apple and Qualcomm for chip substrates and printed circuit boards. The only supplier, Nitto Denko, has not increased production capacity, creating opportunities for domestic companies like China National Materials and Honghe Technology to fill the gap and accelerate domestic substitution [5][6] - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to see an upward trend in prices from 2025 to 2026, following a period of price stabilization. The price of ordinary electronic cloth has risen from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [6] - Cement shipments have slightly increased due to seasonal demand recovery, while glass inventory has decreased. The average shipment rate for key domestic cement companies is around 40%, with a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [7][24] Summary by Sections Cement - In mid-January, cement demand has shown signs of recovery due to warmer temperatures in southern regions and pre-holiday construction rushes, with an average shipment rate of 40% for key cement companies, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month and 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - The national average cement price is 352.58 CNY/ton, down 4.68 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 55.97 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] - Cement inventory stands at 57.44%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points month-on-month [24] Glass - The national average price for glass is 62.61 CNY/weight box, up 0.63 CNY/weight box month-on-month but down 12.34 CNY/weight box year-on-year [37] - The total inventory of glass in key monitored provinces is 4,986 million weight boxes, a decrease of 209 million weight boxes month-on-month [36][37] Industry Outlook for 2026 - The report identifies three main lines for investment: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand in housing expected to drive industry demand back to historical highs [8] - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement recommended for their potential in overseas markets [8] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic cloth, with a focus on Low-Dk products and the significant opportunity for domestic substitution in Low CTE supply [8]

Group 1 - The cement sector experienced a decline of 1.1% on January 21, with Western Construction leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Key stocks in the cement sector showed varied performance, with Sifang New Material rising by 0.99% and Wan Nian Qing falling by 0.37% [1] Group 2 - Western Construction saw a significant drop of 4.78%, with a trading volume of 335,700 shares and a transaction value of 202 million yuan [2] - The cement sector's main funds experienced a net outflow of 21.52 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 14.97 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Conch Cement had a net inflow of 83.13 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights significant growth in China's cement and clinker exports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in November 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Export Data Summary - In November 2025, China's cement and clinker exports reached 1.22 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 178% [1] - The export value for the same period was $5.1 million, which reflects a year-on-year growth of 105.8% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, focusing on delivering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the construction and building materials industry in China, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality initiatives and the impact of carbon emission trading policies on the cement sector [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Green Energy and Engineering Companies**: Companies like China Electric Power Construction and China Energy Engineering are positioned to benefit from increased investment in the power grid and growing demand for technological upgrades from downstream clients [1][3]. - **Cement Industry Leaders**: Major cement companies, such as Conch Cement, are expected to benefit from investments in energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies, as well as policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [1][3]. - **Emerging Coal Chemical Sector**: The emerging coal chemical industry is seen as having significant growth potential, especially given the strategic importance of oil security in China. Companies like China Chemical and Donghua Technology are expected to benefit from this trend [1][4][5]. - **Carbon Emission Trading Market**: The national carbon emission trading market is experiencing a trend of increasing prices. Companies failing to meet advanced standards will incur additional production costs due to the need to purchase carbon credits [1][6]. - **Cost Impact of Carbon Credits**: By the end of 2025, the price of carbon credits is expected to reach 80 RMB per ton, with initial cost impacts on cement companies being relatively limited, estimated at less than 3 RMB per ton of clinker [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Implementation Timeline**: Policies to limit overproduction in the cement industry are set to be implemented in Q1 2026, presenting a favorable time for investment as the competitive landscape is expected to be reshaped through long-term adjustments [2][11]. - **Market Performance Drivers**: The current strong performance of the construction and building materials sector is attributed to low valuations and catalysts such as increased investment in the power grid and rising demand for technological upgrades from clients [7]. - **Long-term Effects of Carbon Policies**: The carbon quota policy is a long-term process that will gradually lead to the exit of outdated production capacity. The implementation of short-term measures will create opportunities for industry consolidation starting in Q1 2026 [12][13]. - **Valuation and Investment Timing**: The cement industry is currently at a historical valuation low, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Companies like Conch Cement and others are trading below book value, indicating potential for price appreciation [11]. Conclusion - The construction and building materials industry in China is poised for significant changes driven by carbon neutrality policies and market dynamics. Key players in the green energy and cement sectors are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, making this an opportune time for investment.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is a cement producer with a focus on overseas operations, particularly in Africa. Industry Insights - **Overseas Capacity**: After the commissioning of a 6,000 tons per day capacity in Uganda, the overseas operational capacity reached 16.5 million tons. Future expansions in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Kazakhstan are expected to increase total overseas capacity to 21 million tons once fully operational [1][3]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The African market is experiencing double-digit demand growth. However, high entry barriers exist due to challenges related to limestone availability and population distribution [2][4]. - **Political Stability**: The overall political outlook in the region is stable, with expectations of no major conflicts following a recent agreement signed by the United States in January [2][5]. Pricing and Profitability - **Price Sustainability**: Long-term pricing is expected to remain sustainable within the range of $100 to $150 per ton. The average gross profit per ton in Africa is projected to be between $30 and $50, with higher margins in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and lower margins in Ethiopia due to currency depreciation issues [5].

Core Viewpoint - Lijiang City has maintained a 100% air quality good rate in its central urban area for ten consecutive years, demonstrating significant achievements in air pollution control and environmental protection efforts from 2016 to 2025 [1][20]. Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - From 2016 to 2025, Lijiang's air quality has consistently remained excellent, with the central urban area's air quality good rate at 100% for ten years [1][20]. - By 2025, the number of days meeting the first-level air quality standard is expected to reach 290 days, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in the good rate [1][20]. - The average concentration of PM2.5 is projected to be 13.2 micrograms per cubic meter, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year, ranking first in the province [1][20]. Group 2: Policy and Responsibility - Lijiang has implemented the "Air Quality Continuous Improvement Action Plan" and the "Three-Year Implementation Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control (2023-2025)" to clarify responsibilities and objectives in air pollution control [2][16]. - The city has established a clear responsibility framework for environmental management, addressing issues of unclear responsibilities and inadequate enforcement [2][16]. - Air quality assessment indicators have been assigned to county governments and included in annual comprehensive evaluations [3][16]. Group 3: Industrial and Energy Transition - Lijiang has introduced the "Carbon Peak Implementation Plan" to promote carbon neutrality and control energy consumption in high-energy industries by 2025 [4][17]. - The total installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to reach 1,719.97 million kilowatts by 2025, with 100% from renewable sources [4][17]. - The city has initiated various projects, including the first hydrogen station and zero-carbon hydrogen production facility, to enhance green energy development [4][17]. Group 4: Pollution Reduction Measures - Lijiang focuses on reducing pollution from key sectors such as industry, transportation, and dust, employing engineering and regulatory measures [6][18]. - The city has implemented ultra-low emission transformations for five cement enterprises and is working on deep pollution control in industrial sectors [6][18]. - A total of 2,419 new energy vehicles have been promoted in public transport, with a 99.87% compliance rate in vehicle emissions testing [6][18]. Group 5: Ongoing Initiatives - Lijiang has developed a three-year action plan for dust pollution control in construction and urban roads, emphasizing meticulous management [19]. - The city is committed to continuous improvement in air quality through targeted measures in construction, agricultural burning, and industrial emissions [19]. - Future efforts will focus on maintaining air quality improvements and solidifying Lijiang's reputation for clean air [19].

Group 1 - The second-hand housing market shows signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9% in transaction prices across 33 cities as of January 18, while month-on-month prices decreased by 1.8% [1] - In key 79 cities, second-hand housing transactions increased by 17.1% week-on-week and 46.5% year-on-year, with daily transactions in the first 17 days of January up by 29.2% year-on-year [1] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are being implemented, including a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% and an extension of tax refund policies for home exchanges [1] Group 2 - The construction materials sector is expected to see improved expectations due to the recovery in real estate and consumption, with a total transaction volume for new and second-hand homes projected to be supported at 1.2 to 1.3 billion square meters [1] - The cement industry has seen a reduction in production capacity by 150 million tons per year, with over 280 clinker production lines completed for capacity replacement, leading to improved profitability due to falling coal prices [1] - The industry is benefiting from a reduction in "involution" competition, with major companies adhering to production based on approved capacity and implementing staggered production practices [1] Group 3 - The Building Materials ETF (159745) includes listed companies in cement, glass, ceramics, and new building materials, reflecting the diversity and innovation within the industry [2]

Group 1 - On January 20, 2023, shareholders of Conch Cement (00914) deposited stocks into KGI Securities Asia, with a market value of HKD 2.62 billion, accounting for 8.86% [1] - On January 14, 2023, Invesco Asset Management Limited increased its stake in Conch Cement by acquiring 1.9075 million shares at a price of HKD 23.0824 per share, totaling approximately HKD 44.0297 million [1] - Following the acquisition, Invesco's total shareholding in Conch Cement rose to 92.746 million shares, representing a holding percentage of 7.13% [1]

Group 1 - The cement sector experienced a significant increase of 3.3% on January 20, with Han Jian He Shan leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the cement sector showed notable price changes, with Han Jian He Shan rising by 10.07% to a closing price of 6.23, and other companies like Hai Luo Cement and Ta Pai Group also seeing increases of 5.74% and 4.38% respectively [1] Group 2 - The cement sector saw a net inflow of 412 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 298 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Han Jian He Shan was 344,800 shares, with a total transaction value of 209 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - The main fund inflows for leading companies included 215 million yuan for Hai Luo Cement and 191 million yuan for Xi Zang Tian Lu, reflecting positive sentiment towards these stocks [3]