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玻璃周度报告:企业库存较稳,需求仍偏弱-20250603
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass is on a downward trend, with weak overall demand. Due to the rainy season in the South, the market trading is poor. Some enterprises offer discounts to promote sales, and the market price continues to decline. In the Shahe area, factory shipments are average, and dealers mainly sell inventory. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market performs okay, but there are differences in the shipment of different manufacturers. The focus of the East China market has declined slightly, with weak demand and the impact of low - priced glass from the periphery. Most enterprises in the South are mainly focused on shipping due to high inventory [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis - Expected Supply Decline**: As of May 29, the national float glass output was 1.1041 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 percentage points. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 100.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.67 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 107.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis - Weak Orders from Deep - processing Enterprises**: As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [14][15] - **Inventory Analysis - Slight Inventory Reduction of Float Glass Enterprises**: As of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 107,000 weight boxes and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in North China was average, and the inventory in East China increased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 30, the total long - position volume of the top 20 members in glass futures was 910,353, a decrease of 57,489; the total short - position volume was 1,122,204, a decrease of 69,731. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23]
旗滨集团: 旗滨集团关于终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易投资者说明会情况的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-03 11:23
证券代码:601636 证券简称:旗滨集团 公告编号:2025-061 可转债代码:113047 可转债简称:旗滨转债 株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 关于终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易投资者说明会情况 的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")于 2025 年 5 月 14 日召开 第五届董事会第三十九次会议,审议通过了《关于终止发行股份购买资产暨关联 交易事项的议案》(以下简称"本次交易"),同意终止发行股份购买资产暨关联 交易事项。为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解本次交易终止相关事宜,公司于 式召开了关于终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易投资者说明会,就公司终止本次 发行股份购买资产暨关联交易的相关情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通,在信息 披露允许的范围内对投资者普遍关注的问题进行了回答。现将有关事项公告如下: 一、本次投资者说明会召开情况 公司于 2025 年 6 月 3 日 16:00-17:00 在上海证券交易所上证路演中心以网 络文字互动方式召开了"关于终止发行股份购 ...
旗滨集团: 北京大成律师事务所关于株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易事项相关主体买卖股票情况的自查报告的专项核查意见
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-03 11:23
北京大成律师事务所 关于 株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易事项 相关主体 买卖股票情况的自查报告 的 专 项 核 查 意 见 大 成 证 字 2025 第 014-4 号 北京大成律师事务所 www.dentons.cn 北京市朝阳区朝阳门南大街 10 号兆泰国际中心 B 座 16-21 层(100020) Chaoyang District, 100020, Beijing, China Tel: +86 10-58137799 Fax: +86 10-58137788 dacheng.com dacheng.com dentons.cn 关于株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 终止发行股份购买资产暨关联交易事项相关主体 买卖股票情况的自查报告的 专项核查意见 致:株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 根据株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司(下称"旗滨集团")与本所签订的《专项 法律服务协议》,本所接受旗滨集团的委托,担任旗滨集团本次发行股份购买资 产暨关联交易项目(下称"本次交易")的专项法律顾问,并于 2025 年 1 月 23 日为本次交易出具了《北京大成律师事务所关于株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司发行 股份购买资 ...
南 玻A: 关于回购股份进展公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-03 10:37
证券代码:000012;200012 证券简称:南玻 A;南玻 B 公告编号:2025-026 中国南玻集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 中国南玻集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")分别于 2025 年 2 月 13 日、 会议审议通过了《关于回购公司部分人民币普通股(A 股)、境内上市外资股(B 股)股份方案的议案》。公司根据相关规定编制并披露了回购报告书,具体内容 详见 2025 年 3 月 25 日刊登于《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券 日报》和巨潮资讯网(www.cninfo.com.cn)的《关于回购公司部分人民币普通股 (A 股)、境内上市外资股(B 股)股份的报告书》。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 交易日内,公告截至上月末的回购进展情况。现将回购股份进展情况公告如下: 一、截至上月末回购股份的进展情况 截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日,公司通过回购专用证券账户以集中竞价交易方式累 计回购公司 A 股股份 29,421,580 股,回购公司 B 股股份 9,27 ...
玻璃六月报淡季供增需减,盘面依旧看弱-20250603
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:51
玻璃六月报 淡季供增需减 盘面依旧看弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/6/3 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号:F3022468 投资咨询号:Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号:F03120770 投资策略:反弹做空 主要逻辑 行情回顾:五月玻璃盘面继续保持流畅的下跌趋势。五月末盘面小幅反弹,一方面是因为纯碱供应过剩,碱玻价差合适, 主流资金进行多玻璃空纯碱的套利操作。另一方面则是受到湖北产线冷修传言的影响,这两方面给予了玻璃做空的空间。后续 大线点火复产和淡季库存回升,导致主力合约跌破1000。供给方面,五月份冷修2条,点火复产3条,日熔量底部抬升。全国 库存维持高位运行,华北华中以价换量效果一般,月末沙河湖北厂库环比增加,厂家库压力较大。主销区受外围降价和天气影 响,市场观望情绪增加,中下游提货速度放缓。煤炭价格持续走弱,华北煤制气工艺利润维持。需求方面,中下游按需采购, 现货降价比较下对原片采购趋谨慎。纯碱方面,前期检修装置复产,供应回升至高位,结合下半年投产计划,市场对远期悲观 预期较浓,同样弱势看待。 后市展望:六月 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250603
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 08:05
| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1110 | 1120 | -10 | -0.89% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1096 | 1101 | -5 | -0.45% | | | 玻璃2509 | 682 | ે જેટ | -3 | -0.30% | | | 05基差 | 84 | 79 | 5 | 6.33% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...
受开竣工走弱影响,水泥玻璃价格继续偏弱
Huafu Securities· 2025-06-03 07:40
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, supported by policies aimed at boosting housing demand and improving purchasing power. This is expected to enhance the overall market sentiment and reduce credit risks for companies in the construction materials sector [5][12] - Short-term pressures for growth have led to renewed emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector, while medium to long-term monetary and fiscal policy adjustments are anticipated to further support the market [12] - The report highlights that the construction materials sector has limited room for further deterioration compared to the end of 2022, with expectations for both fundamental recovery and valuation improvement [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - As of Q1 2025, the balance of real estate loans in RMB reached 53.54 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. Personal housing loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 0.5 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [12] - Various local governments have introduced measures to stimulate housing consumption and support the real estate market, including tax adjustments and incentives for home purchases [12] 2. Weekly High-Frequency Data - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 375 RMB/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 5.7% year-on-year [3][13] - The factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1230 RMB/ton, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 25.9% year-on-year [3][22] 3. Sector Review - The construction materials index increased by 0.18% this week, while the overall market indices saw slight declines [4][54] - Among sub-sectors, other building materials and cement products showed positive performance, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced slight declines [4][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5]
大越期货玻璃周报-20250603
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the glass futures continued to weaken. The main contract FG2509 closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week, breaking the 1000-yuan mark. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass also decreased. The glass market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly View - Futures: The main contract FG2509 of glass futures closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The spot price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [2][13]. - Supply: The production profit of the glass industry has deteriorated, the cold repair volume is high, and the supply is at a historical low. There were 225 float glass production lines in operation last week, with an operating rate of 75.73% and a daily melting volume of 157,300 tons [2]. - Demand: The seasonal off - season has arrived, the real - estate terminal demand recovers slowly, and the downstream orders are insufficient, mostly for rigid demand. As of May 29, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week [2]. - Outlook: The glass market has weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. Impact Factor Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, and the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, so traders and processors are cautious [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks periodically, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate strongly at a low level [7]. - **Risk Points**: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [7]. Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1000 | 982 | -1.80% | | Spot Benchmark Price (yuan/ton) | 1084 | 1068 | -1.48% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | 84 | 86 | 2.38% | [8] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [13]. Fundamental - Cost and Profit The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [18]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 225, with an operating rate of 75.73%, and the daily melting volume is 157,300 tons. The number of operating production lines and the production capacity are at historical lows in the same period [23][25]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [29]. - The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [6]. Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, net imports, and their growth rates [45].
玻璃:需求淡季,抄底不具有安全边际
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 14:24
分析师:何慧 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 中辉期货研究院 时间:2025.05.30 【观点】5月浮法玻璃市场继续面临"弱现实+弱预期"的双重压力,价格中枢持续下探。宏观层面,海外关税风险缓和,美债危机 担忧出现,整体风险偏好不高。国内经济从一季度的"生产强、需求弱"转为"产需双弱"的格局,4月PPI同比下降2.7%,工业品 通缩格局依旧。1-4月地产竣工同比下跌16.9%,跌幅再次扩大,玻璃中期需求继续萎缩。进入6月,梅雨季+夏季高温陆续来临,需 求淡季预期背景下,中上游库存偏高,企业和贸易商主动降价去库为主,现货市场疲软运行。淡季悲观预期下,主力合约贴水现货 价格。供应端来看,目前煤制产线仍有利润,供应缩减动力不足,玻璃开工率和日熔量低位回升,供应压力显现。随着原料纯碱和 燃料煤炭价格持续创新低,带动玻璃成本重心下移,进一步拖累玻璃期现价格,抄底仍不具有安全边际,至少要看到供需两端的改 善以及成本端的止跌企稳才可尝试多头。 【策略】 单边策略:目前主 ...
纯碱:长期过剩,短期边际转好
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-30 13:35
Group 1 - The supply of soda ash remains in excess, requiring upstream low operating rates to maintain supply-demand balance, with high visible inventory levels in the midstream and upstream sectors [1][5] - Domestic soda ash is in a capacity expansion cycle, with new capacity of 2.5 million tons expected in 2024 and an additional 900,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025, leading to an overall effective capacity growth rate of approximately 5.6% by 2025 [2][4] - From August 2024, due to domestic soda ash surplus and declining prices, the export window has opened, with some producers actively exploring overseas markets, resulting in a net export status for soda ash [2][4] Group 2 - The float glass production is currently at a low level, with significant losses reported since July 2024, leading to an increase in cold repairs and a decrease in daily melting capacity from 170,000 tons to 158,000 tons [3] - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a rebound, with daily melting capacity increasing to around 100,000 tons by the end of April 2025, although inventory levels are rising, which may hinder further increases [3] - Light soda ash demand growth is projected at 7.2% for 2024, but the growth rate for 2025 is expected to be lower at around 5.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% observed from January to April 2025 [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for soda ash remains oversupplied, with significant new production capacity planned for 2025, including 4.05 million tons from various producers [4] - The current high levels of visible inventory in the upstream sector indicate that while there may be short-term rebounds, sustained low operating rates will be necessary to maintain balance [5] - The forecasted operating rate for 2025 is approximately 83.7%, down from 86.4% in 2024, indicating a continued oversupply situation for soda ash [4]