高空近月或反套 生猪周报 2025/11/22 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价小涨后小落，周初受降温影响，下游加大收购量，养殖端亦有缩量挺价动作，但涨价后出栏积极性提升，猪价小幅反弹 后再度回落，周内屠宰量环比增加，体重继续小幅上升，肥标价差小幅回落；具体看，河南均价周落0.02元至11.7元/公斤，周内最低11.6元/ 公斤，四川均价周涨0.14元至11.3元/公斤，周内最低11.2元/公斤，广东均价周持平于12.36元/公斤；北方出栏进度正常，但南方市场计划完 成度偏慢，加量出猪下可能利空行情，反观需求端因气温偏高，表现始终不温不火，仅局部有零星腌腊出现，预计下周猪价仍以缓慢阴跌为主。 ◆ 供应端：9月官方母猪存栏为4035万头，环比小落0.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.5%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或 ...

Core Insights - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, the first monthly increase exceeding 10% this year [1][3] Group 1: Electricity Consumption by Industry - The primary industry saw a 13.2% increase in electricity consumption, significantly driven by the electrification transformation in livestock and fishery sectors [3] - The secondary industry, which accounts for over 60% of total electricity consumption, experienced a growth rate of 6.2%. Notably, high-tech and equipment manufacturing led with an 11.0% increase, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing surged by 19.8% [3] - The tertiary industry exhibited the most remarkable growth at 17.1%, largely fueled by the rapid advancement of the digital economy, with internet data services related to big data and AI skyrocketing by 46% [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - The consumption surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival contributed significantly, with the accommodation and catering sectors increasing electricity usage by 18.4% [5] - The electric vehicle industry experienced explosive growth, with charging and swapping services seeing a staggering 61.8% increase in electricity consumption [5] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption grew by 23.9%, attributed to the unusual weather conditions in October, particularly the high temperatures in southern regions [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The electricity consumption data reflects three new trends in the Chinese economy: a shift towards high-tech manufacturing, rapid growth in the service sector driven by digitalization and holiday consumption, and resilient consumer spending [5] - The overall electricity usage illustrates a vivid narrative of economic recovery, showcasing the dynamic pulse of China's economy through various sectors [5]

Core Insights - The national average price for live pigs has shown a downward trend, with the average price at 5.86 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan from the previous day [3][4] - There is one region with rising prices, 14 regions with falling prices, and 13 regions remaining stable [3] - The lowest price for live pigs is reported in Guangxi at 5.2 yuan per jin, while the highest price is in Hainan at 7.2 yuan per jin [3] Price Trends - In the Northeast region, prices have weakened by 0.05 yuan, with mainstream quotes ranging from 5.7 to 5.9 yuan [4] - In Henan, the price for pigs has remained stable but slightly weaker by 0.05 to 0.1 yuan [4] - In Guangdong, prices are stable, while scattered prices are showing a weak trend [4] Market Dynamics - The market for live pigs is currently under pressure, with a general weak performance observed [4] - There is some positive news regarding the initiation of the Southwest cured meat market, which may provide some support to the overall market [4] - Further cooling in the market is anticipated, indicating a need for monitoring future developments [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the stability of essential commodity prices in Changchun, with a focus on maintaining supply and price stability for basic living needs [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil - Grain and oil supplies are sufficient, with stable prices reported: rice at 2.80 yuan per 500 grams, flour at 2.34 yuan, and 5L bottled soybean oil at 66.00 yuan, all unchanged from the previous week [2][6] Group 2: Meat, Eggs, and Poultry - Chicken egg prices remain stable, while pork prices have decreased to 10.96 yuan, down by 1.79%. Beef and lamb prices have slightly increased, with beef at 35.00 yuan (up 0.57%) and lamb at 36.20 yuan (up 1.12%) [3][6] Group 3: Vegetables and Fruits - Vegetable prices have decreased, with an overall average of 4.87 yuan, down by 2.93%. Among the monitored vegetables, 3 increased, 5 decreased, and 4 remained stable. Notably, the price of bell peppers rose by 6.67%, while spinach saw a significant drop of 10.61%. Fruit prices remained mostly stable, with duck pears at 4.78 yuan (up 2.14%), bananas at 3.90 yuan (down 2.50%), and apples at 6.60 yuan (unchanged) [4][6][7]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，西部牧业收盘价为10.82元，下跌4.92%，本期筹码集中以来股价累 计下跌8.92%。具体到各交易日，3次上涨，6次下跌。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季公司共实现营业收入6.67亿元，同比下降5.01%，实现净利 润-3665.81万元，同比增长11.85%，基本每股收益为-0.1735元。（数据宝） 西部牧业11月21日披露，截至11月20日公司股东户数为21700户，较上期（11月10日）减少1900户，环 比降幅为8.05%。 ...

德康农牧(02419)发布公告，该公司于2025年11月21日斥资621.24万港元回购8.57万股股份，每股回购价 格为71.5-73.3港元。 ...

智通财经APP讯，德康农牧(02419)发布公告，该公司于2025年11月21日斥资621.24万港元回购8.57万股 股份，每股回购价格为71.5-73.3港元。 ...

Core Insights - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, the first monthly increase exceeding 10% this year [1][5] Industry Breakdown - **Primary Industry**: Electricity consumption was 12 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. The growth is attributed to the rising electrification in agriculture, including modern facilities and equipment [5][6] - **Secondary Industry**: This sector accounted for over 60% of total electricity consumption. The high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries saw an electricity consumption growth rate of 11.0%, with specific sectors like electrical machinery and automotive manufacturing achieving 19.8% and 17.6% growth, respectively [8][10] - **Tertiary Industry**: This sector experienced the fastest growth in electricity consumption. The internet data service industry, related to big data and AI, saw a remarkable increase of 46%. The accommodation and catering industry also grew by 18.4%, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [12] Residential Consumption - Residential electricity consumption reached 115.5 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9%. The growth was significantly influenced by temperature variations, particularly in regions experiencing high temperatures during October [5][14]

活体牲畜抵押贷款是一种农业金融创新，通过将牛、羊、猪等活体牲畜作为抵押物，向银行或金融机构申请资金支持。和传统土地抵押不同，这种融资方式 更贴近农村实际，特别适用于缺乏固定资产的中小型养殖户。 随着政策对"新型农业主体"的倾斜，活体抵押逐渐成为推动畜牧业发展的有效工具，让养殖户能够在生产周期中更灵活地周转资金、扩大规模。 只要养殖稳定、有一定规模，大多数金融机构都愿意提供此类贷款。 本文将深度解析 活体牲畜抵押贷款详解：牛、羊、猪等融资常见问题解答，帮助养殖户全面了解贷款流程、评估方式、优势、政策支持与常见疑问。 为了确保牲畜真实存在、价值可控，贷款一般按以下流程进行： 监管方式包括： 慧农活体生物资产抵押贷款监管 解决方案 华牧慧农智能电子耳标 申请活体牲畜抵押贷款通常需要满足以下要求： 农业贷款虽然受政策支持，但仍属于金融产品，银行必须确保还款能力。因此： 这些都能明显提高成功率。 1、基本条件 合规养殖场地 一定存栏数量（如 20 头牛 / 100 只羊 / 30 头猪） 良好的信用记录 基本销售记录与经营证明 2、为什么信用很重要？ 华牧 1、适合的牲畜品种 肉牛 / 奶牛：价值高、稳定性强 肉羊 / ...

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices are expected to remain low in the short term, with a potential for a slight rebound starting in July 2026, influenced by the ongoing culling of laying hens and seasonal demand fluctuations [5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 13, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.08 yuan per jin, while the feed cost per jin is 3.00 yuan, leading to a negative profit margin for producers [1]. - The average profit per jin of eggs has decreased to -0.20 yuan in November, down from -0.12 yuan earlier in the second half of the year, indicating worsening financial conditions for producers [1]. Group 2: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing increase in the culling of laying hens is expected to lead to a gradual decline in the number of laying hens, with projections indicating a significant drop to approximately 1.21 billion hens by December 2026 [3]. - A tightening supply, coupled with stable consumer demand, is anticipated to fundamentally alter the market dynamics, potentially alleviating the current weak price conditions for eggs and laying hens [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of prolonged low prices to a phase of slight price recovery, with the turning point for egg prices likely occurring around July 2026 [5]. - The timing and extent of the price rebound will depend on the concentration and duration of the culling process; a rapid and concentrated culling could lead to a quicker and more substantial price recovery, while a slow and dispersed culling would result in a prolonged recovery period [5].