大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3702 | 3689 | 13 | 01-05 | 592 | 676 | -84 | | JD05 | 3110 | 3013 | 97 | 05-09 | -690 | -754 | 64 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3767 | 33 | 09-01 | 98 | 78 | 20 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.34 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for egg supply is bearish, demand is neutral, profit is bullish, price and volume is neutral, and the strategy is volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020 based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle. Before the production capacity is cleared due to losses in breeding profits, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on the arbitrage strategy of selling near - term contracts and buying long - term contracts [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - In the spot price section, it involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [5][7] - Regarding egg basis, it focuses on the basis of each egg futures contract [8][9] - For egg spreads, it analyzes the spreads of each egg futures contract [11][12] - In terms of futures institutional net positions, it shows the long - short difference and long - short ratio of institutional positions in the July egg futures contract [14][16] Supply Analysis - In the egg - laying hen inventory part, it includes egg - laying hen inventory and its structure [17][18] - Regarding the culling situation, it covers culling prices and the average culling age [19][20] - For the replenishment situation, it involves the price of commercial egg - laying chicks and the utilization rate of breeding eggs [22][23] - In the large - and small - sized egg situation, it includes the prices of large - and small - sized eggs and the seasonal chart of their price differences [24][25] Demand Analysis - In the shipment and sales volume part, it focuses on the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipment volume in main production areas [27][29] - Regarding inventory, it includes production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory [30][31] - For substitutes, it shows the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and between eggs and vegetables [32][33] Profit Analysis - In the breeding profit part, it compares current and expected profits and shows the comprehensive breeding profit of egg - laying hens [34][36] - Regarding the egg - feed price ratio, it includes the egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point, as well as the seasonal chart of the egg - feed price ratio [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the spot price of eggs remained weak. As of May 11, the average price of pink eggs was 2.8 yuan per catty, and the average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty. The current egg price is below the comprehensive cost line, approaching the daily feed cost. [4] - The supply and demand of eggs are still relatively loose, with significant supply pressure. As the egg price drops, the elimination of old chickens has accelerated slightly, but it is difficult to effectively relieve the supply pressure in the short term. [4] - Although there are issues with chicken diseases affecting egg production, it is expected that the increasing trend of egg supply in the future will not change. [4] - In terms of consumption, the low vegetable prices are a negative factor. However, as the egg price continues to fall, there are more egg promotions in other industries, increasing egg consumption. At the same time, the willingness to store eggs in cold storage has increased at low prices, providing short - term support for the egg price. [4] - It is expected that the short - term decline of egg prices will slow down, but the medium - term supply and demand of eggs will remain loose. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The average price of pink eggs was 2.80 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 4.1%. The average price of red eggs was 2.83 yuan per catty, down 0.15 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 5.0%. The price difference between red and pink eggs was 0.03 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 51.5%. [3][4] - **Basis**: The 06 basis was - 26 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 174 yuan from the previous period. The 09 basis was - 887 yuan per 501 kilograms, down 199 yuan from the previous period. The spot price dropped significantly this week, and the basis weakened. Currently, the futures have a premium over the spot. [4] - **Spread**: The 6 - 7 spread was - 129 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 2 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 1.5%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 732 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 27 yuan from the previous period. The short - term weakness of the spot and the potential increase in future supply pressure suppress the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction and feed price increase. Therefore, the reverse spread logic of shorting near - month and longing far - month contracts still exists. [4] - **Strategy**: For the 06 - 10 contracts, maintain the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm. Pay attention to the reverse spread of shorting the 7 - month contract and longing the 9 - month contract. [4] 3.2 Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - The report presents historical data on the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the price difference between different types of eggs, and the basis and spread of different egg futures contracts from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][13] 3.3 Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Hens' Situation**: The in - production inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. At the end of April, it increased by 6.7% year - on - year. The egg - laying rate was 91.27%, down 0.17 percentage points from the previous period, a decrease of 0.19%. [3] - **Elimination Situation**: The price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 1.28%. The number of eliminated chickens was 17.25 million, an increase of 0.67 million from the previous period, an increase of 4.1%. The average age of eliminated chickens was 535 days, down 1 day from the previous period. [3] - **Chick Situation**: The price of laying hen chicks was 4.14 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 97%, down 2 percentage points from the previous period. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 45.975 million, down 0.35 million from the previous period, a decrease of 0.8%. [3] - **Inventory Situation**: The production inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous period, an increase of 1.7%. The circulation inventory was 1.32 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous period, an increase of 2.3%. The number of trucks arriving in the sales areas remained high. [3] 3.4 Egg Production Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.78 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.2%. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.33 yuan per catty, up 0.03 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.8%. The cost of raising chickens was 34.09 yuan per chicken, up 0.05 yuan from the previous period, an increase of 0.1%. [3] - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of egg production was - 0.55 yuan per unit, down 0.25 yuan from the previous period, a decrease of 81.7%. [3] 3.5 Egg Consumption - Side Data - The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 8591.6 tons, down 224.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 2.5%. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 565.83 tons, down 1.5 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.3%. [3]

华联期货分析称，节后下游终端购买力度有所减弱，经销商多为规避风险拿货偏谨慎，库存压力再现， 蛋价承压下探。5月新开产蛋鸡多为2025年1月前后补栏鸡苗，此阶段临近春节，养殖单位补栏相对谨 慎，鸡苗销量环比微降，预计5月开产蛋鸡数量环比减少，但当前可淘汰老鸡不多，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 量依旧在高位运行，供应中期相对宽裕，市场观望情绪浓厚。06合约或延续区间宽幅震荡，压力位参考 3100，支撑位2900。期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 正信期货表示，基于鸡蛋基本面周期的分析，判断当前所处位置与2020年上半年的情况较为类似，在养 殖利润出现亏损导致产能出清之前，鸡蛋期货近弱远强格局有望延续。操作上，建议暂观望，等待反套 时机。 五矿期货指出，假期国内蛋价整体表现平稳，局部小幅下跌，黑山报价持平于2.9元/斤，馆陶落0.06元 至2.87元/斤，供应持续增多，5月份蛋价或依旧偏弱，当中节后有小幅补库需求或导致蛋价小涨，但供 应压制，且随着气温升高和需求回落，蛋价整体趋势或维持向下。假期鸡蛋走货尚可，但库存偏稳定， 价格持平或小落，整体新开产的压力大过需求备货的支撑，印证供应依旧主导当前蛋价，随着气温升高 和新开产压力的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of eggs fluctuated and declined this week. The 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The feed raw material prices are rising due to Sino - US tariff policies, which supports the egg cost. However, the old chicken culling has slowed down again after the previous egg price increase, and the current laying - hen inventory is at a high level. The newly - opened production of the previously stocked laying hens is gradually increasing, so the egg supply is relatively sufficient. Meanwhile, as the festival stocking is coming to an end, the purchasing power of downstream terminals has weakened, and the egg price also tends to stop rising and decline. Affected by the decline of spot prices, the futures market has also weakened, and market volatility has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations, at 2942 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Feed raw material price increase supports cost, but supply is sufficient and downstream demand is weakening, causing the spot price to decline and the futures market to follow suit with increased volatility [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 06 contract of egg futures closed down with fluctuations. The position was 118,678 lots, a decrease of 50,406 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 2902, compared with - 1593 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Wednesday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3208 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 103 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 06 contract futures price and the spot average price was + 266 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 110 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.78 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [38]. - **Culling Situation**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of chickens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3800 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of April 25, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was 0.05 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of April 25, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.25 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 10.38 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In March 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,903.32 tons, an increase of 1242.82 tons compared with 11,660.49 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 10.66%, and a month - on - month increase of 2188.58 tons compared with 10,714.73 tons in the previous month [62]. 3.4 Representative Enterprise - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is presented with a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [64].