联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3376 | 3383 | -7 | 01-05 | -99 | -99 | 0 | | JD05 | 3475 | 3482 | -7 | 05-09 | 559 | 531 | 28 | | JD09 | 2916 | 2951 | -35 | 09-01 | -460 | -432 | -28 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.57 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3383 | 3434 | -51 | 01-05 | -99 | -78 | -21 | | JD05 | 3482 | 3512 | -30 | 05-09 | 531 | 592 | -61 | | JD09 | 2951 | 2920 | 31 | 09-01 | -432 | -514 | 82 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.58 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.03 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report on August 21, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3437, down 53 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3506, up 48; JD09 closed at 2879, down 121 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -69, down 101; the 05 - 09 spread was 627, up 169; the 09 - 01 spread was -558, down 68 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.02; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.04 [3] - The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.94, down 0.02 [3] Spot Market - The main producing area average price was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.04; the main selling area average price was 3.39 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25 [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per bird was 3.82 yuan, down 2.50 from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [3] - The average price of corn was 2382 yuan, down 3; the average price of bean meal was 3124 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.60 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable today, with some regions showing price stability and others slight fluctuations [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase [7] - In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week [7] - The average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/bird, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious, with the laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs stored in the market are flowing out, putting pressure on the market price. The short - term bearish logic holds without large - scale over - culling [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [10] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10] - Options: Sell call options [10]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3468, down 24 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3450, down 18; JD09 closed at 2983, down 115 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 18, down 6; 05 - 09 spread closed at 467, up 97; 09 - 01 spread closed at -485, down 91 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, unchanged; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 8.54 yuan, up 0.45 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of corn was 2391 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3114 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream price remained stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 8 to 14, the national main production area's egg - laying hen elimination volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average elimination age was 506 days, unchanged [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was 11.92 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - The national price of eliminated chickens decreased, with the main production area's average price at 5.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply pressure is obvious and the demand is average, leading to price decline. After the previous rebound of egg prices, cold - storage eggs were gradually released, impacting the price. Although the spot price has risen, it is lower than expected. Short positions should be considered for the 10 and 11 contracts [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short positions on rallies [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [10] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chicken - seedling prices, eliminated - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventory, spreads, and breeding profits [12][16][20][22][27][29][38][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still obvious and the demand is weak, leading to price declines. After the previous rebound in egg prices, the release of cold - storage eggs has impacted the market. Although the September contract is a peak - season contract, the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream prices are temporarily stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated laying - hen inventories from August to November 2025 are approximately 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 1st to 7th, the national main - production - area egg - chicken culling volume was 13.38 million, an 11% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, 1 day more than the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,529 tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/jin from the previous week. On August 1st, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 13.94 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national culled - chicken price dropped, with the main - production - area average price at 5.34 yuan/jin, a 0.15 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Trading Logic - The obvious supply - side pressure and general demand have led to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after the previous price rebound has impacted the price. Although the September contract is a peak - season contract, the current spot price increase is below expectations [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] - Options: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts showing various indicators such as egg spot prices in main production and sales areas, egg - chicken chick prices, culled - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventories, price spreads, and profits [11][12][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg market has sufficient supply due to the high inventory of laying hens and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in low - priced sales by breeding enterprises to reduce inventory, and the spot price has been lower than expected, causing the industry to fall into losses again. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and mid - autumn procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. The futures price has declined again due to the continuous drop in spot prices and high inventory [8]. - It is recommended to participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: Participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. - Egg market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 122 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, high inventory and weak demand continue to pressure prices, but future demand may improve [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The egg futures 09 contract declined again, with a position of 203,664 lots, a decrease of 22,376 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased from - 37,010 to - 27,832 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 6 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 287 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 476 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 188 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.58 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%; the new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Elimination of laying hens: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%; the average age of eliminated hens was 501 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,395.49 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of August 1, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.16 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Egg - chicken chick and eliminated - hen prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.76 yuan per kilogram [62]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. The report shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but specific data is not provided [68].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated July 22, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3617, unchanged from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3410, up 2; JD09 closed at 3621, down 15 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was 207, down 2; 05 - 09 spread was - 211, up 17; 09 - 01 spread was 4, down 15 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal remained mostly unchanged [3] Spot Market - Main production area average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin; main sales area average price was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [3][6] - Most spot prices in various regions were stable, with some increases in Beijing, Northeast China, etc [3][6] - Average price of culled chickens was 5.54 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit and Feed - Current profit per chicken was 17.55 yuan, up 1.37 yuan from the previous day [3] - Corn average price was 2410 yuan, up 1; soybean meal average price was 2974 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.34 billion, up 0.06 billion from last month and 6.7% year - on - year [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, down 9% month - on - month and up 1.9% year - on - year [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 11 - 17, culled chicken output was 16.27 million, down 5% from the previous week [7] - As of July 17, the average culled chicken age was 505 days, up 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 19, egg sales in representative sales areas were 7886 tons, up 3.8% from the previous week [8] - As of July 17, production - link average inventory was 0.95 days, down 0.1 day; circulation - link average inventory was 1.04 days, down 0.13 days [8] - As of July 17, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.48 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 17, the expected profit per laying hen was 12.14 yuan, down 1.24 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Current single - jin egg profit is in loss or at break - even, limiting the downward space of futures prices [9] - The upward space of the September contract depends on future culled chicken volume. High culled chicken volume means more upward space; otherwise, it may be slightly bullish [9] - Spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract, being a peak - season contract, may rise after hitting the bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid - Autumn Festival [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and it is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the September contract in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the September contract may fluctuate slightly stronger. Recently, the egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. As the September contract is a peak - season contract, after the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise with the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory restocking [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3612, down 8 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 12; JD09 closed at 3591, down 24. The 01 - 05 spread was 211, up 4; the 05 - 09 spread was - 190, up 12; the 09 - 01 spread was - 21, down 16 [3] - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.50, down 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.26, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.21, down 0.01 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. Most regional prices remained stable, with only slight increases in some areas such as Xiaogan and Jingmen [3][6] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.77 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. Most regional prices remained stable [3] 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost**: The average price of corn was 2409, down 5 from the previous day; the average price of bean meal was 2924, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.56, down 0.01 [3] - **Income**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.77, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21, up 0.04 [3] - **Profit**: The profit per chicken was - 3.18 yuan, up 0.92 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The national mainstream price remained stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with normal sales [6] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In June, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The estimated in - production laying hen inventories in July, August, September, and October 2025 are approximately 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In June, the monthly chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (about 50% of the country) was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - **Culled Chicken Volume**: From July 4th to July 11th, the national main - production - area culled chicken volume was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week [7] - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of July 10th, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7592 tons, with little change from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 10th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week [8] - **Profit**: As of July 10th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.68 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week. On July 4th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.38 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.46 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.77 yuan per catty, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day [9] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end and the safety margin is high [11] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11] - **Options**: Sell put options [11]