研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3210 | 3184 | 26 | 01-05 | -300 | -309 | 9 | | JD05 | 3510 | 3493 | 17 | 05-09 | -368 | -382 | 14 | | JD09 | 3878 | 3875 | 3 | 09-01 | 668 | 691 | -23 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.55 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the current laying - hen inventory remains at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. - Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited. - The recent decline in spot prices indicates that the short - term egg prices are likely to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3265, down 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3530, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, up 8. - **Spread**: 01 - 05 spread was - 265, down 44; 05 - 09 spread was - 348, down 21; 09 - 01 spread was 613, up 65. - **Ratio**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.03; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.06, down 0.02. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per jin, unchanged. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some areas. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day [2][4][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan per chick, up 0.04. The average price of corn was 2260 yuan per ton, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3072 yuan per ton, unchanged. - **Profit**: The profit per chicken was 2.51 yuan, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, 10 million less than the previous month, 5.5% higher year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated laying - hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. - **Sales and Production**: From November 06, the weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7300 tons, down 4% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, 0.02 days less than the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, 0.04 days less than the previous week [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory will lead to a gentle de - capacity speed. The limited upward space of the contract price and the recent decline in spot prices suggest that short - term egg prices are likely to be weak with limited downward space [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Group 1: Report Core View - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively slow in the short term. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, while the December main contract has given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 3: Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3383, down 8 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3505, up 17; JD09 closed at 3856, up 6 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was -122, down 25; the 05 - 09 spread was -351, up 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 473, up 14 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.31, unchanged [2]. Group 4: Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.23 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan per jin [2][4]. - The price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. Group 5: Fundamental Information - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in October was about 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - From November 2025 to February 2026, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - From November 6th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of November 6th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.25 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from the previous week. On October 31st, the expected profit of laying hen farming was -4.82 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.42 yuan per jin from the previous week [6]. - As of November 6th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the current laying - hen inventory remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside potential is expected to be relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3386, up 1 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3498, down 11; JD09 closed at 3854, down 13 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 112, up 12; the 05 - 09 spread was - 356, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 468, down 14 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged. Similar trends were observed for other contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan per catty, up 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, unchanged [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.1 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatch**: In October, the monthly chick hatch of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume**: In the week of October 31, the culled chicken volume in the main producing areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% from the previous week [5]. - **Profit**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. The expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per chicken, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of October 31, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 1.04 days and 1.1 days respectively, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Logic The recent increase in culled chickens has relieved supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory persists. The short - term de - capacity speed will be slow, and the upside potential of the market is limited [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short term will be relatively gradual. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, and the main contract in December has already given a certain premium, the expected upside space is relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3385, up 48 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3509, up 17; JD09 closed at 3867, up 8. The 01 - 05 spread was -124, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was -358, up 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 482, down 40 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.71, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining stable, and only some local prices showing minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The prices of culled chickens in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Handan and Shijiazhuang rising, and prices in Jinan and Dezhou falling [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous expectation. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume and Age**: In the week of October 31, the national slaughter volume of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.53 million, an increase of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 494 days, a decrease of 5 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 31, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7658 tons, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of October 31, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.2 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 31, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 4.82 yuan per bird, an increase of 1.42 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of October 31, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, also unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the amount of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3347, up 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3497, up 31; JD09 closed at 3861, up 12. In terms of spreads, 01 - 05 was - 150, down 2; 05 - 09 was - 364, up 19; 09 - 01 was 514, down 17. Regarding the ratios, 01 egg/corn was 1.56, up 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.11, up 0.01, etc. [2] 2. Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions showed various trends, with most of the national mainstream prices remaining stable, some falling, and some rising slightly. The average price of culled chickens was 4 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged [2][4] 3. Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and in the main sales areas also decreased. The national mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some fluctuations in different regions. In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a slight decrease from the previous month but a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. The number of culled chickens in the main production areas in the week of October 31 was 20.53 million, an 11% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 494 days, a 5 - day decrease. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 2.1%. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.2 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. The production and circulation inventories remained unchanged [4][5][6] 4. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 5. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the demand side generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to remain weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment has led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3368, up 64 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3477, up 33; JD09 closed at 3863, up 26 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 109, up 31; the 05 - 09 spread was - 386, up 7; the 09 - 01 spread was 495, down 38 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.04; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.13, up 0.02, etc. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Profit per Chicken**: The profit was 0.27 yuan/feather, down 2.20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Feed Prices**: The average price of corn was 2243, up 2; the average price of bean meal was 3032, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.48, unchanged [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed, with prices in some areas stable and others falling. Egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with average sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the inventory from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In September, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume**: From October 24th to the end of the week, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of October 25th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of October 23rd, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/feather, down 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous week [5][6] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.6 Related Charts The report provides 15 charts, including those on egg prices in the main production and sales areas, chick prices, culled chicken prices, feed costs, laying hen inventory, spreads, basis, and profit trends [11][15][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains high, leading to short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3147, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3328, down 11; JD09 closed at 3777, down 51 [3]. - 01 - 05 spread closed at - 181, down 11; 05 - 09 spread closed at - 449, up 40; 09 - 01 spread closed at 630, down 29 [3]. - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price in the production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3]. - The profit per chicken was - 4.68 yuan, down 0.01 from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [6]. - In September, the number of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [7]. - From October 16th to the week, the number of culled hens in the main production area was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - As of October 17th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [9]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The egg market has entered a phase of off - peak consumption after the festival. With the supply of laying hens remaining high and the demand being average, egg prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas was 2.7 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 2.97 yuan per catty, down 0.07 yuan from the previous day. Most of the mainstream prices across the country remained stable, and the egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6] - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) in August was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - From October 2 to October 8, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens during this period was 500 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit per laying hen was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens decreased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9] 4.2 Trading Logic - Currently, the egg prices in the production areas have basically fallen to around 2.8 - 3 yuan per catty. After the festival, the market has entered a phase of off - peak consumption. The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is average. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [10] 4.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Near - month contracts are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Previous short positions can consider taking profits [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3352, down 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3395, up 8; JD09 closed at 3803, up 7 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at -43, down 10; 05 - 09 spread closed at -408, up 1; 09 - 01 spread closed at 451, up 9 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.14, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; main selling area average price was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - Dalian egg price was 3.33 yuan/jin, unchanged; Dezhou was 3.55 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Handan egg price was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; Xiaogan was 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin [3] Profit and Cost - Today's profit per bird was 21.99 yuan, down 1.28 yuan from yesterday [3] - Corn average price was 2370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; soybean meal average price was 2998 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - August national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [7] - August egg chick monthly emergence volume was 39.81 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [7] - September 26 week's national main producing area egg hen culling volume was 18.22 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week [7] - As of September 26 week, national representative selling area egg sales volume was 7148 tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous week [8] - As of September 26 week, production link weekly average inventory was 1.13 days, an increase of 0.19 days; circulation link weekly average inventory was 1.23 days, an increase of 0.17 days [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Overall supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to fall to the lowest level in recent years [10] - Short-term egg price rebound is mainly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday stocking. With the end of holiday stocking, egg prices have begun to decline [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions should be held as the spot price has recently declined, but there is expected to be some support near the previous low [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]