Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, regional product and crude oil spreads, refining margins, other key spreads, and key market news. It suggests holding various long positions in crude oil lightly while testing support levels [1]. 3. Section Summaries Regional Product Spreads - **Gasoline**: The Atlantic Basin gasoline arbitrage window is slightly open, but the Mediterranean - New York, and Asia - Mexico routes are closed due to high costs and supply - demand situations [2]. - **Diesel**: The US Gulf - Western/Northern Europe and Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean routes are open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Northwest Europe are closed [2]. - **Aviation Fuel**: The Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean route is barely open, while most other routes are closed [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: All major routes are closed, with price differentials and high costs making arbitrage unfeasible [2]. - **Naphtha**: The US Gulf - Japan route is open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Japan are closed [4]. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - **USGC**: Most Middle - Eastern and Colombian crude oil routes to USGC are closed, while some routes to USAC and NWE have open or closed status based on price advantages and market conditions [4]. - **Singapore**: The Bonny Light to Singapore route is open, while the Murban to Singapore route is closed [4]. Refining Margins - **USGC**: Both cracking and coking margins are strong, with coking of Urals showing high profitability [5]. - **USAC**: Refinery margins are leading, benefiting from complex configurations and tight product supply [5]. - **Northwest Europe**: Margins have reached a new high for the year, driven by tight diesel supply [5]. - **Singapore**: Margins are stable, supported by recovering jet fuel demand and gasoline export opportunities [5]. Other Key Spreads - **WTI - Brent**: Brent maintains a premium over WTI, reflecting strong US exports and tight European supply [6]. - **RBOB - WTI Crack**: Gasoline crack spreads are at historical highs, supported by refinery maintenance and low inventories [6]. - **3:2:1 Crack Spread**: The comprehensive crack spread is extremely strong, indicating high overall refinery processing profits [6]. Key Market News - **ExxonMobil**: Plans to double LNG sales by 2030 and invest in oil production in Guyana and the Permian Basin [6]. - **Trump**: Calls for further oil price reduction to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Macron**: Announces the restoration of UN sanctions on Iran [6]. - **EU**: Is formulating measures to accelerate the phasing - out of Russian gas imports [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view within the [-2, 2] range [8].

Summary of Jiufeng Energy Conference Call Company Overview - Jiufeng Energy is an integrated natural gas company listed on A-shares, with a full industry chain layout from upstream to downstream. The company initially operated LPG business in South China and has expanded into LNG and LPG as its main businesses, along with energy services and specialty gases [3][4] Financial Performance - Over the past decade, Jiufeng Energy has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in net profit attributable to shareholders. As of 2024, the company reported a debt-to-asset ratio of 37% and a return on equity (ROE) of 20%, indicating high asset quality [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 3% year-on-year, despite pressures from warm winter and industrial gas demand [2][4] Business Strategy and Growth Plans - Jiufeng Energy plans to expand its road gas production capacity from 1 million tons to 2 million tons within three years to meet the demand from end transportation customers [2][6] - The company has committed to dividends of no less than 850 million and 1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 4% to 5% [2][6] - Specialty gases are a strategic focus, targeting the aerospace sector, with products like helium and hydrogen aligned with the needs of the Hainan commercial space launch site [2][7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - After completing LNG transport vessels in 2024, Jiufeng Energy's operating free cash flow significantly improved, reaching 1 billion yuan. As of mid-2025, the company held 4.6 billion yuan in cash, indicating a strong financial position [2][8] Market Trends and Industry Insights - China's apparent natural gas consumption is expected to grow by about 7% to 8% in 2024, with new segments like LNG heavy trucks and gas power contributing to this growth [10] - In the industrial sector, certain areas have achieved high natural gas substitution rates, but there remains significant potential for natural gas to replace coal in various industries [11] Resource and Customer Matching Strategy - Jiufeng Energy matches offshore long-term resources with direct domestic end-users, such as industrial parks and large customers, while road LNG resources are aligned with end transportation fuel users, primarily in western and northwestern China. This strategy helps stabilize price differences [12] Dividend and Buyback Plans - The company has set fixed dividend commitments for the next three years, with a cash dividend of 780 million yuan for 2024, a payout ratio of 46%, and a dividend yield of 4.3%. Additionally, a buyback plan of 200 to 300 million yuan is in place for employee stock ownership and equity incentives [14] Future Growth Potential - The expansion of road LNG production capacity is identified as a key growth area, combined with fixed dividend commitments and a strong customer base, suggesting a low overall valuation and high allocation value for the company [15]

Core Viewpoint - Egypt's oil and gas production has entered a phase of gradual growth after four years of decline, with natural gas daily output increasing by over 200 million cubic feet since August, indicating a return to stability in the industry [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting Natural Gas Production - Natural gas production in Egypt has been concentrated in three main areas: the Nile Delta and Mediterranean Sea, the Western Desert, and the Suez Canal coast [2] - The Zohr gas field, discovered in 2015, was expected to allow Egypt to avoid energy imports for at least a decade, but production has significantly declined due to technical issues [2] - Government policies, including centralized purchasing and low gas prices, have suppressed the production enthusiasm of international energy companies [2] Group 2: Supply Challenges - Egypt relies on natural gas for 80% to 85% of its electricity, leading to power shortages during peak demand periods, which have resulted in blackouts and disruptions [3] - The government has turned to purchasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the international market to fill supply gaps, signing contracts worth $3 billion for 60 LNG vessels [3] Group 3: Measures to Boost Local Production - The Egyptian government has introduced new investment incentives and payment plans to attract foreign investors and alleviate financial pressures on international energy companies [4] - Payments of $1 billion have been made to international energy companies, with plans for an additional $1.4 billion by year-end [4] - The government has raised gas purchase prices for several international companies to enhance production motivation [4] Group 4: Exploration and Local Investment - Egypt has discovered 29 new gas resources, adding approximately 18.5 trillion cubic feet of reserves, which has stimulated exploration activities [5] - The government is conducting high-precision seismic surveys in the eastern Mediterranean to assess gas reserves and support new exploration [6] - Egypt is seeking to attract local companies to invest directly in the oil and gas sector, with agreements already signed to explore opportunities in aging oil and gas fields [6]

新华财经北京9月18日电（安娜、江宇娟）在新型能源体系加快构建的当下，天然气作为传统化石能源中的清洁能源，应如何把握能源转型带来的机遇？未 来天然气产业是否还能再迎"黄金期"？ "今年四季度，乃至未来五年的天然气价格有望进入新的下行通道中。"国家管网集团市场部总经理田中山说，我国作为天然气进口大国，用能成本有望大幅 降低，更好支撑国内经济发展。 中海石油气电集团资源与市场部副总经理沈悦预计，"十五五"期间，随着国产气持续增储上产，进口管道气增量可观，叠加低价液化天然气供应快速增长， 2030年全国可供资源量或在5700亿立方米以上。资源成本下降将进一步激活国内天然气需求。 在9月18日由中国经济信息社、上海石油天然气交易中心主办的2025天然气产业发展大会（秋季）上，与会专家深入交流当下天然气领域热点问题，思想碰 撞交汇，勾勒出产业发展的未来。 00 G 4-8jg 6 F on the e f (Ca.) t Tacks of 19 Clance Case 海峡 f 9 - PA e 100 r 图为2025天然气产业发展大会（秋季）现场（蒋文摄） "在可再生能源飞速发展的今天，天然气以其清洁、灵活、稳定的 ...

Group 1 - Fitch indicates that the Federal Reserve is fully supporting the labor market and will tolerate higher inflation in the short term, with a decisive rate cut cycle expected in 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, suggesting that the "slow bull" market for A-shares appears more stable than before, with a focus on themes like private enterprises and artificial intelligence [1] - KPMG warns that extending current Federal Reserve policies into next year could lead to excessive stimulus, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher inflation expectations among consumers and businesses [1] Group 2 - BlackRock states that the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts may depend on the continued weakness of the labor market, with future policy actions likely to be data-dependent [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the Federal Reserve is not in a rate-cutting sprint mode, but has restarted the rate-cutting process due to weaker-than-expected labor market conditions [2] - Nomura has adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut in October and subsequent cuts at each remaining meeting this year [3] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raises its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce, citing favorable foreign exchange and interest rate environments [4] - ING reports that the latest UK inflation data does not significantly alter the probability of further rate cuts by the Bank of England later this year [5][6] - Rabobank anticipates that European natural gas prices will stabilize at high levels starting in the second quarter of next year due to new liquefied natural gas capacity coming online [6] Group 4 - Bank of America survey reveals that 59% of European investors view the weakness of the US labor market as the biggest risk to global economic growth [7] - CICC reports that the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, but there is significant divergence among committee members regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [8] - CICC also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in October, but warns that the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities raises its forecast for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year from two to three, anticipating cuts in October and December [10] - CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut rates by 50 basis points this year, with the policy rate expected to be between 3.5% and 3.75% by year-end [11] - CITIC Securities also suggests that the dollar may remain weak during this rate-cutting cycle, while gold is expected to perform well [12] Group 6 - Zheshang Securities highlights that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is a beginning rather than an end, with potential risks of inflation if cuts are too aggressive [14] - CICC notes that only a few companies possess the full-stack capabilities necessary to advance to the "embodied intelligence" level in robotics [15] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a seasonal increase in cement prices as demand is expected to recover from September to November [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation in energy consumption in Guangxi, where the introduction of natural gas pipelines has significantly improved the convenience of energy use for local communities, marking a significant shift from traditional wood burning to natural gas [1] Group 1: Community Impact - The construction of oil and gas pipelines has brought many workers, referred to as "贝侬," into Guangxi, enhancing community access to natural gas [1] - Residents have experienced a shift in energy sources, moving from burning wood to using natural gas, which is now more convenient than tap water [1] - The local population has witnessed and benefited from this energy transformation, fulfilling a long-held aspiration for modern energy solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of energy market reform in China is highlighted, with the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center being a strategic pillar for this reform [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Market Reform - The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center is established under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, marking a significant achievement in China's energy market reform [2]. - The center is seen as crucial for maintaining national economic and energy security, serving as a strategic support for further reform [2]. Group 2: Future Directions - The company aims to leverage its global communication and information resources to provide authoritative information, enhance policy interpretation, and create a favorable public opinion environment for energy transition [3]. - It plans to deepen think tank research by collaborating with government departments, experts, and enterprises to address industry pain points and provide actionable decision-making references [3]. - The company seeks to build a collaborative innovation ecosystem to promote information sharing, technology exchange, and project matching, establishing a new benchmark in the energy sector [3].

Group 1 - The meeting between the leaders of China, Russia, and Mongolia focused on deepening mutual cooperation, emphasizing "hard connectivity" through cross-border infrastructure and energy projects, "soft connectivity" through strategic alignment, and "heart connectivity" through cultural exchanges [2] - A memorandum was signed for the construction of the "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline, which will transport up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia to China via Mongolia [3][4] - The "Power of Siberia-2" project is expected to be one of the largest and most capital-intensive in the global gas industry, with lower supply prices compared to current rates charged to European customers [4][5] Group 2 - The international gas trade can be conducted through liquefied natural gas (LNG) or pipeline gas transportation, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [6][7] - In 2024, China's total natural gas imports are projected to reach 131.69 million tons, with LNG imports at 76.65 million tons and pipeline gas at 55.04 million tons, largely due to the full operation of the China-Russia East Route Gas Pipeline [9] - China currently has three cross-border gas pipelines, including the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, which has a maximum annual capacity of 60 billion cubic meters [10][12] Group 3 - The "Power of Siberia-1" pipeline has an annual gas supply capacity of 38 billion cubic meters, while negotiations for this pipeline took over a decade due to Russia's firm pricing stance [17][18] - The "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline is expected to compensate for the gap left by the "Nord Stream-2" pipeline, with a contract duration of 30 years [32] - Russia's energy exports to the EU have significantly decreased, from 41% in 2021 to around 8% in 2023, prompting Russia to seek new major customers, particularly China [29][30][31] Group 4 - China's energy import strategy aims for diversification, sourcing gas from various regions, including the Middle East, Russia, and Australia [36] - The complexity of negotiations for the "Power of Siberia-2" involves Mongolia's potential high transit fees and the management of the pipeline within its territory [38] - The urgency from Russia regarding the pipeline project is driven by geopolitical tensions, but future relations with the West may alter the dynamics of gas pricing and supply [43][44] Group 5 - Natural gas is considered a transitional clean fuel, favored in Europe, but it may eventually be replaced by renewable energy sources [45] - The "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline could reduce China's reliance on maritime LNG transport, enhancing energy security in the short term [47] - The project represents a strategic choice for China during a transitional period in energy sourcing [49]

编者荐语： FT中文网 . 9月2日， 中国和俄罗斯、蒙古国进行了领导层三方会晤 。这次会晤达成的一项重要而具体 的成果，是三方就"西伯利亚力量2号"天然气管道项目（Power of Siberia 2）签署了具有约 束力的备忘录。 作为 "西伯利亚力量1号"（即"中俄东线天然气管道"）的姊妹项目， "西2" 年设计输气能力 500亿立方米，经由蒙古进入中国。同时，中俄双方还签署商业协议，计划将现有 "西1" 对 华年输气规模从380亿立方米提升至440亿立方米，并把在建的'远东线'输气规模从原计划的 100亿立方米上调至120亿立方米。 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站，旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 欧俄能源合作的终结，意味着俄罗斯必须转向亚洲，为其天然气资源寻找新的长期 市场。 文丨谭浩 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次， 作为其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, natural gas [1][3][4] - **Bullish**: Methanol [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are released, and the Fed's interest - rate cut is confirmed. Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. There are different supply - demand situations and price trends for various energy and chemical products [1]. - For most products, the macro - environment, including OPEC+ production policies, Fed interest - rate decisions, and geopolitical conflicts, has a significant impact on prices. At the same time, the supply - demand relationship of each product itself also determines its price trend [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.86%, Brent fell 1.48%, and SC rose 1.28%. The latest WTI主力 was at $63.32/barrel, Brent主力 at $67.46/barrel, and SC主力 at 499.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and unexpected inventory drawdown in the US provide short - term support for oil prices, but there is a long - term supply surplus, with prices likely to fall to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week ending September 12, US crude net imports decreased by 3.1 million barrels/day to 415,000 barrels/day, and exports increased by 2.5 million barrels/day to 5.3 million barrels/day. EIA data showed a 9.3 - million - barrel decrease in US commercial crude inventories to 415.36 million barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [495 - 505] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,540 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,499 (- 5) yuan/ton, and 4,550 (+10) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus and may decline further. The demand side has weakened due to falling chemical profits. As of September 17, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,002 lots [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (- 40). The North China Ningmei price was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 30), and the number of warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots (+523) [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and demand. Production is expected to increase next week, and the demand side is supported by the approaching peak season for shed films [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7350] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,939 yuan/ton. The East China wire - drawing market price was 6,847 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 92 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has improved. The recent increase in the PP parking ratio and the decline in the wire - drawing production ratio are expected to ease supply pressure. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7050] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,847 yuan/ton. The Changzhou spot price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the 01 basis was - 197 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level. Fundamentally, supply is strong and demand is weak, with large - sample social inventories accumulating for 12 consecutive weeks. There are more maintenance plans this week, and exports may weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips supported by low valuations. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 (+7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,712 (- 66) yuan/ton. The PX11 - 12 month - spread was 24 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 85.7 (- 1.2) yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand has improved, with PTA device operating loads rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and inventories are still relatively high. Macro factors include OPEC+ production increases and a high probability of Fed interest - rate cuts [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Build long positions on dips in intraday trading and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of [6750 - 6860] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA East China price was 4,565 (- 55) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4,648 (- 40) yuan/ton. The TA11 - 1 month - spread was - 18 (- 4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 83 (- 15) yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of previously maintained devices and new device投产 expectations. There is an expectation of a "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and build long positions on dips in intraday trading [3]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 (- 44) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4,319 (- 31) yuan/ton. The EG10 - 1 month - spread was 34 (+21) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 106 (- 14) yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have not changed much. Arrivals and imports are relatively low. There is an expectation of a consumption peak season, and demand is improving. Inventories are low, providing support for prices. The market is trading on new device投产 expectations [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions and hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude. Focus on the range of [4270 - 4310] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2,379 (- 8) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 99 (+3) yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined slightly. Overseas device loads are still high, and imports are high, resulting in relatively large supply - side pressure. Demand has stopped falling, and cost support has stabilized [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2350 - 2380] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Short - term supply is tight, but it is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits under certain policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure in the short - term. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Geopolitical factors drive up energy prices, and the temperature is getting cooler, increasing combustion demand and gas storage for winter [4]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Although the cost - end crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the supply is in surplus, and the overall supply - demand is loose, with high valuations [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased. New production lines have been ignited, increasing daily melting volume, but terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to improved market sentiment [4]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply pressure is expected to ease due to upcoming device maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish with a slight improvement in demand, but bearish in the medium - to - long - term [4].